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Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ethereum Hits $380, Nearing All-Time High

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The second largest coin finally reached our next target level after a long and grinding leg higher, and the ETH token topped out only a few percent off its all-time high near $400 today in early trading. Ethereum, which was the top performing major during the summer rally, has been lagging Bitcoin and most of the other prominent coins during the recent rally off the July lows, but it has gained relative strength recently. As BTC hit a marginal new high yesterday, ETH remained strong overnight, and it’s still within its rising short-term uptrend. Support is found near $330, $300, and $285.

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ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is still trading slightly above the $4500 level, but, so far, it failed to gather strong upside momentum, and that could point to a bull-trap in the most valuable coin. The coins that are already sporting lofty gains, like Monero and Dash, could be the most affected by a BTC correction, while the likes of Litecoin, Ripple, and Ethereum Classic could outperform in such a scenario. Today, most of the largest currencies are little changed, with NEM and Dash trading notably higher, while Monero losing ground for the third day in a row. Let’s see how the charts look on this quiet day.

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Bitcoin

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin breached the $4600 level for a new all-time high overnight, carrying the crypto segment’s value to over $165 billion for the first time. The coin is now only a tad above the prior record levels, signaling caution for investors, as the long-term picture remains deep in overbought territory. Key support levels are still found at $4000, near $3800, $3500, and $3150.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

LTC is still consolidating its recent break-out, trading in a very narrow range for the second day in a row. The coin is in clear short- and long-term uptrends, without being overbought, pointing to more upside potential for both traders and investors. Support levels are found near $60, $56, and around $51, while the next target level is near the $70 level.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is slightly above yesterday’s short-term correction lows, as it the coin is still within a narrow range after the surge to $400 during the weekend. The currency is still overbought regarding long-term momentum, and the current setup suggests a more protracted correction after the recent rally. Support is still at $300, and near $266, with the prior high below that at $230.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple settled down somewhat after a volatile period, in a broad short-term consolidation pattern after last week’s break-out. The coin is currently testing the upper boundary of the pattern, and another leg higher in the trend is likely after establishing a swing low near the $0.20 level. Below that, more support is found at $0.18 and near $0.16, while resistance is ahead at $0.26 and near $0.30.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic experienced some volatility today, but it continues to trade slightly below the $16 resistance after breaking the rising short-term trendline. The coin is still the weakest of the majors, and although the long-term picture remains encouraging, short-term traders should still wait with new positions until a new trend is established. Resistance is ahead at $18 and $23, while long-term support is found around the $14 level.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is a short-term correction pattern after hitting an all-time high above $150 level. The coin broke its steep uptrend, and with the long-term picture still being overbought, investors should wait with new positions until a deeper correction. Support levels are found near $125, at $100, and below that around $80.

NEM

NEM/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEM is drifting higher once again within the broad trading range around the 0.000065 level, but the pattern is still very much intact. The long-term picture continues to look encouraging, and with Bitcoin being in overbought territory, a rally towards   0.000075 is likely, with a possible test of the 0.00009 level as well. Support is still found near 0.0000575 and 0.000048.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO has been very volatile in the last couple of days, testing the $30 level and rebounding sharply twice in the period. The coin faces resistance at $40 and $46, while an unlikely break below $30 would warn of further correction, possibly towards the $22 support.  Short-term traders should still wait with entering new positions, but investors could add to their holdings near the $30 support.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: No Questions Answered

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Thursday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2718 0.97%
DAX 12,468 0.31%
WTI Crude Oil 62.61 2.02%
GOLD 1332.00 0.52%
Bitcoin 9780 -8.00%
EUR/USD 1.2324 0.26%

It was a strange day indeed in equity markets, with mixed signals popping up across the board after yesterday’s crazy quasi-FED day. An ugly overnight session, followed by a strong pre-market rally, an early-day pump, and a late-day dump. That is the summary of the day, but under the surface, there is a real struggle between market forces, with still an edge for bears in the battle for control.

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NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

It seems that the Nasdaq is still the key, as the relative strength of the tech benchmark is the most reliable gauge of the market direction, at least regarding the intraday trends. That said, at the end of the day, the Nasdaq closed in the red 4 times in a row, at least as far as the normal trading day is concerned, and still, the major indices are trading not far off last Friday’s top, despite the downward drift.

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Forex Markets and Commodities

Adding to the confusion, the Dollar corrected lower after a positive period, and with Treasury yields trading all over the place, investors were left scratching their heads yet again. The Japanese Yen was the clear winner of the day among currencies, as the primary safe-haven got bid heavily during the Asian session, and it remained throughout the up-and-downs of the day, despite the strong bounce in stocks and risk-on currencies.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The EUR/USD pair had a very active and volatile session, but the common currency remained above the lows from two weeks ago, while also halting below yesterday’s highs, so all-in-all, no technical conclusion to draw. As in stocks, the next clear directional day will be crucial, as the tug of war is getting tenser and tenser.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Canadian Dollar plummeted during the day, thanks to the dismal Retail Sales figures, but it finished well off its lows, boosted by the stock recovery and the jump in the price of crude oil. The Black Gold was pushed higher by the surprisingly bullish US inventory data, and the WTI contract closed back above $62.50 per barrel.

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold continued to follow the Euro, finishing the day slightly higher, but the precious metal showed notable relative strength during the Asian session, and that could be the precursor of a move to new rally highs, should the bearish scenario play out in equities.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment had another bearish session, and the bleeding continued after the US session, with BTC leading the way lower this time around after a long period of relative strength. A crucial test might be ahead of the most valuable coin, as the $9000-$9200 support zone would be a perfect target for the current correction, to keep the uptrend going. That said, that zone is still almost 50% above the prior low, leaving plenty of room for the coin to bottom out.

BTC/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With all of the major altcoins also sporting significant losses, bulls would like to see more of the early relative strength that some coins have been showing, to establish a leadership that can guide the segment out of the plunge. For now, the crash lows are way below the current levels, and the bullish long-term scenario remains intact.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Correction Continues but Coins Remain Stable

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It’s been another mixed session for cryptocurrency investors as judging by only the price action, the segment suffered losses across the board, but comparing the current sell-off to the January plunge reveals that the majors are much more resilient this time around.

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The largest digital currencies are holding on to most of the gains of the recent weeks, and the price action near the crucial support zones is also encouraging. With all that said, the correction is not over yet, and further losses are still in the cards, but barring a substantial change in price action, the coins will likely continue the rally.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin has been trading around the key $10,000 level all day long, and, so far, a clear break-down has been averted. The short-term momentum indicators are now in neutral territory regarding the most valuable coin, and that could mean that a bottom is close, and investors should already add to their holdings here. Further strong support is found between $9000 and $9200, while targets are ahead at $11,300, $13,000, and $14,250.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Correlation between the majors has increased during the sell-off, but there are still clear outperformers and laggards, adding to the bullish case. Monero remains among the strongest coins from a technical perspective, trading right at the lower boundary of the bullish consolidation pattern, with the $280 price level holding up for now. The coin faces strong resistance near $300 and $335, but we expect the uptrend to continue with the next target being ahead at $400, while further support is found at $240.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Bulls Try to Fight Back after Ugly Overnight Session

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Following the steep late-day downturn on Wednesday, which followed the not-to-hawkish FED meeting minutes, Asian markets and US equity futures continued lower with a vengeance. The very active overnight trading is another sign of the regime change in traditional financial markets that we have been monitoring for the last two weeks, ever since the “Black Monday of 2018”.

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Dow Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/USD Changing Behavior

The European session brought about an oversold bounce that stabilized markets from stocks to currencies. The EUR/USD pair that has started acting “normally” considering its relationship with US Treasury yields lately, is headed south once again, trading only 0.5% above its recent correction lows after clearly breaking below the rising trendline.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The bull-trap that we identified a few days ago was the start of the current leg lower, and if the regime change will be persistent, the most traded forex pair could be back to the role of the “risk-on/risk-off” indicator that has been the privilege of commodity currencies in the last couple of weeks.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Japanese Yen is showing notable strength after its overbought dip, and the primary safe-haven currency could be in for more gains, should the risk-selloff continue. The Yen also gained ground on the common European currency, following the dovish ECB meeting accounts and the misses in the German IFO business climate indicator and the British GDP, which all question the European growth-monetary tightening narrative.

Canadian Dollar in for a Wild Ride

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With the Canadian retail sales report and the US crude oil inventory data coming out soon, forex traders should expect sizeable moves in the recently weak currency, while the USD should also be very active during the US stock market session.

All eyes are on Treasury yields again, with the slight correction today helping the bounce in stocks and other risk assets. The Nasdaq could be the motor of a stronger rally on Wall Street, but we wouldn’t bet the house on that, as the short-term technical setup remains bearish, and a re-test of the correction lows is still the most likely scenario for the coming weeks.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 111 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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