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Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Undergoes 40% Correction as Altcoins Plunge Too

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The sell-off that started out in BTC as a skirmish between Bitcoin and its forked counterpart Bitcoin Cash, accelerated overnight and today, and the most valuable coin dragged the whole segment sharply lower. The decline turned into a full-fledged crash later on, with the major coins falling by an average of 30% from the recent highs, and with deeper losses in some of the largest names.

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BTC found short-term support near $15,000 yesterday, but after the coin fell below that level, waves of heavy selling pushed the coin to the primary support at $13,000 as we expected, and for now, the bottom formed near the $11,300 support.

The short-term downtrend is clearly intact, and although violent bounces are possible along the way, we still expect further downside in the market, as the long-term setup remains overbought. Below $11,300, further support levels are found at $10,000 and $9000, with stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum also entered a violent correction, as the second largest coin spiked as low as $500 before rebounding above $60. The long-term overbought readings are not yet cleared, so the correction will likely continue, although volatile counter-trend rallies are likely. Key support levels are now found at $575, between $480 and $500, and near the prior all-time high at $400, where the long-term uptrend lone is also providing support currently.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

As correlations exploded in the segment, Litecoin also turned sharply lower after its recent failed break-out attempt. The coin broke below the primary support zone between $250 and $260 and got close to hitting the $170 level too amid the mini-crash, completing a 50% pullback from its all-time high. Despite the oversold short-term picture, we expect further correction with further support levels at $125 and $100.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash continues to be among the relatively strong coins, even amid the sharp sell-off, but it also fell more than 40% top-to-bottom before the rebound. The short-term overbought readings are now cleared, but the long-term picture is still stretched and more bearish price action is likely, with major support levels still at $1000, $800, $650, and $600.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple got very close to the $1.25 target level after yesterday’s break-out, and although the broad correction dragged the coin lower and it spiked below the previous high at $0.85, the steep short-term uptrend remained intact. That said, long-term investors shouldn’t buy the coin here, while traders could still play the rising trend with smaller positions. Further support levels below $0.85 are found at $0.68, at $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic followed the other majors lower too, after failing at the lower boundary of the previous uptrend channel, and it hit a low near $25 after violating the $32 and $30 supports. Given the extremely overbought readings on the long-term MACD we expect an even deeper correction with a likely dip below the prior all-time high at $23 before the end of this cycle.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is still trading inside the rising short-term trend channel, despite the almost 50% retracement, as the coin found strong support at $300, following a series of spikes below that level. While a durable short-term bounce is possible after the mini-crash we expect a deeper correction in the coin in the coming weeks, with further support levels found at $240, $200, $180, and $150.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO re-tested the level of its recent break-out as the broad correction in the segment dragged the coin lower as well, despite the less overbought long-term setup. We still expect a rally towards the $100 level following the correction, but traders should expect a volatile consolidation period amid the segment-wide correction. Key support zones are still found near $0.56, $0.50, and around $0.40.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA has been the most volatile coin during today’s sell-off, and the coin flash-crashed to the $1.1 support on several exchanges after violating the dominant rising trendline. The coin has been trading between $3 and $3.50 since the spike lower, and we expect volatile conditions to persist in the market, as a longer corrective phase is likely still ahead after the recent exponential surge. Strong support is still found at $3 and $1.5, with a Fibonacci support level between those at $2.35.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. MinerMatt17

    December 22, 2017 at 10:39 pm

    Bitcoin found major support when it got close to 10,400 on coinbase. As soon as it got tat low, the site shut down due to so many people trying to buy.

    What makes you think 10,400 wasn’t the low? It would be almost right on par with previous 35-40% corrections.

    • Mate Cser

      December 23, 2017 at 1:59 am

      Hi Matt,

      basically, the run-up to the correction was more like Ethereum’s rally in the spring than the previous cycles in BTC from a market dynamic’s perspective, so a longer consolidation period is likely in my view, with a final low at $7500-$7700, the last major break-out point. But I will happy to buy above that if a clear bottom forms, my gut feeling is that the stops near $10,000 will be taken out before this is over.

  2. MinerMatt17

    December 23, 2017 at 4:11 am

    How do you define a clear bottom? I guess how many days of consolidation is needed? I just view these corrections that bitcoin experiences as all being the same. They get a 30-40% which is almost impossible to buy into at that exact moment, and then a quick rebound.

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Analysis

Music: One Overlooked Use Case

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So far in this year, Ethereum has been the crypto star appreciating over 80% to a recent record of $1402. All this suggests that more and more applications are being created. We know this by the demand for Ether, the gas that drives the Ethereum network.

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The reason behind the explosion of Ether demand was confirmed by Ethereum co founder Steven Nerayoff in a CNBC interview where he claimed the number of Ethereum projects today is more than 10 times year ago levels.

One of those areas is the music business and there are several names appearing on the ICO list to add to your research agenda.

Why The Music Business Needs Help

Music may live forever but the business side has been in trouble for a long while. Over the last decade there have been only three years when the global value of music sales increased. The combination of digital music and outright pirating through peer-to-peer sharing has much to do with the long-term trend.

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Throughout the world there are 69 copyright and royalty societies given the responsibility of documenting, collecting and distributing music royalties. That means collecting a few pennies whenever a song is played on the radio, Internet or anywhere else. Four of the largest of these is in the US, followed by Japan, Germany and Britain. Their operations are truly byzantine.

Experts in the music-publishing field confirm the time between music usage and royalty payment can run close to 24 months. Even then not all royalties are distributed. According to my sources, there are often millions of dollars collected by royalty authorities everywhere that never make it to the entitled recipients. That sort of practice borders on criminal behavior but copyright and royalty societies operate in a sub-rosa manner making it difficult to understand their policies.

In the past just 4 major record labels controlled over 80% of the industry. These giants could afford a full time legal department to pursue royalty issues dominated the music industry. Today, however, independent labels represent almost one-third of the market. This means less democracy in the business with the young independent artist at a particular disadvantage.

Of course, musicians aren’t the only group of artists loosing out on their pay. There are writers, poets and painters that go largely unprotected.

The music business is just easier to track because it has more data. Yet in spite of all the information, the music industry is widely recognized for its lack of transparency. Blockchain technology has the ability to disrupt long-standing industry practices.

ICOs To The Rescue

The number of Ethereum based white knights is starting to appear on the horizon promising to rattle the industry and hopefully restore some democracy on behalf of the independent artist.

One simple business model comes from a startup SingularDTV who is attempting to build their ecosystem on top of Ethereum. Here is the basic value added proposal.

SingularDTV tokenizes the artist work. In doing so the artist is turning their music into a financial asset. Anyone who buys into an artist’s token owns a share of the creation and its income stream. The more people consume an artist creation, the higher goes the token price.

Only time will show if SingularDTV succeeds with this model. The consequence of this model is how it eliminates many of the middlemen and nefarious influences in the industry. Instead of singing on a street corner for bread, an artist could raise money upfront without relying on an advance from a record label.

According to SingularDTV, distributing content via blockchain would allow artists to skirt streaming platforms like Spotify to earn royalties on their own terms. Now that is true democracy.

SingularDTV may stand out a bit in the news due its recent ICO success in raising $8 million but they aren’t the only player in the music game. Names like Voise recently raised $1 million as well as Soundchain, Blokur and Opus to name a few.

I am no longer a registered investment advisor, which means I don’t go around making investment recommendations. So I will only suggest this group to put on your list of late night reading. Next time, I will take a closer look at more of these names.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Cryptocurrencies Start Week on a Quiet Note as NEO Shines

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The broad Bitcoin-led correction continued to dominate trading in the crypto-segment throughout the weekend, as the most valuable coin drifted sideways above the key technical level at $13,000, with dwindling trading volumes.

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BTC remains in a declining short-term pattern, although the digital currency still holds well above the mini-crash lows from December, spending almost a month now in the daily range of the year-end plunge. We still expect the largest coin to complete the current cycle with a move below the crash lows and the $10,000 level after the stellar rally of the previous months. Key support is still found near $13,000, with further levels at $11,300, $10,000, $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Altcoins also settled down across the boards with only a few coins registering strong activity. Ethereum and NEO have been among the coins making headlines, as the second largest coin continued to grind, higher still trading near its recent all-time high today. The price of the ETH token is moving in a short-term uptrend, in the face of the stretched momentum indicators, but we expect a meaningful correction soon, and long-term investors should wait for a more favorable technical setup before entering new positions, with key support levels at $1000, $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple remained under heavy selling pressure in the meanwhile, as the oversold bounce of the weekend faded away and the coin got close last week’s lows again. As the short-term downtrend is intact, traders should stay away from entering new positions, while investors should wait for short-term sell-offs towards the main support levels at $1.50, $1.25, and $0.85 to add to their holdings.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Coins Rebound as Key Support Level Holds Bitcoin

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The $13,000 level in the price of Bitcoin continued to be the center attention of traders today, as the most valuable coin successfully tested the crucial support zone overnight, despite another brief dip below it. The other majors followed the subsequent bounce higher, with Ethereum pushing past $1250 once again, while Ripple reclaiming the $2 level.

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Despite the bounce, the short-term trend in Bitcoin is clearly bearish and the correction is still likely to continue, although the extreme long-term overbought readings are now cleared. We still expect a move towards the previous correction low near $11,300, with a likely dip below $10,000 before the end of the current cycle, with further important support levels are found at $9000, $8200, and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ripple recovered slightly after nearing the $1.50 level and reaching short-term oversold readings, and the coin tested the primary resistance level at $2.1 yesterday in late trading. The currency remains in a strong short-term downtrend despite the bounce and the continuation of the correction is likely, although long-term investors could already accumulate new positions near the main support levels at  $1.50, $1.25, and $0.85.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum bounced of the dominant short-term trendline, but the coin remains overbought on all time-frames and we expect a trendline break in the coming days. That said, traders could hold smaller positions here with tight stops as a push towards the prior all-time high is still possible. Key support levels are found at $1000, $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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