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Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Tops $4000 as Rebound Continues

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As the effects of last week’s crash are waning, the recovery continues in the segment, although Bitcoin’s relative strength is prominent. The other majors are still well below their prior highs, while BTC reached the $4150 level today in early trading, surging past the key $4000 level. While the correction will likely take the coin way lower from here after the initial rally, the rebound’s strength is encouraging for bulls, and the long-term picture is now favorable for a durable bottom to form. The coin has support at $3800, $3500, and between $300 and $3150.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum touched $300 during today’s rally, while Dash has been the strongest altcoin, technically speaking, since the crash low, as the coin surges back above $300 and breached the 4330 level as well. Among the other previous market leaders, Monero also rallied back to $100, while Litecoin remains beaten down, just trading north of the $51 support. IOTA built on its relative strength and rallied strongly of the lows as well, while Ethereum Classic remains the weakest looking major coin. There might be a choppy period ahead for traders, as the market will likely settle down after the huge bounce.  Let’s see the details of the short-term picture.

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Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETH is trading right at the crucial support/resistance level at $285 after reaching $300 for a 50% rally off the crash low. The coin is near the declining short-term trendline, and it’s still well below its all-time high that it hit back in June. The short-term MACD is now in neutral territory and a re-test of the $250 support is still likely before a decisive trend change. Support is found near $285, $250, and $235, while resistance is ahead at $330.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been halted by the $56 resistance level during the rebound, but the coin is back to its rising long-term trendline after the spike lower. We expect more volatile consolidation from the coin, with a focus on the $50-$51 support/resistance zone. The declining short-term trend is clearly intact, with resistance ahead at $64, and further support near $44.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is trading slightly above the declining short-term trendline, being the only one among the majors to breach trendline resistance during the rebound. The coin is still expected to re-test the $300 level in the coming week, but the relative strength is encouraging, and short-term dips should be bought by long-term investors. Strong support is still found near $300 and $265, with resistance ahead at $360.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP is back above the long-term base formation after the bounce, and the coin held up above the prior declining trendline during the crash. The resistance zone between $0.1950 and $0.20 stopped the advance for now, but we still expect the currency to be relatively strong after the correction ends. Support is now found at $0.18 and $0.16 while further resistance is ahead near $0.22.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic tried to rally above the declining trendline and the crucial $13.50 resistance, but the level held, and the coin remains relatively weak from a technical perspective. The current price levels still look attractive for long-term investors, but short-term traders should wait until a break above primary resistance before entering new positions. Above the resistance zone around $14, further strong levels are at $16 and $18, while support is found near $9.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is still gravitating towards the $100 level, as the coin remains among the less volatile majors since the crash. The currency is clearly in a declining short-term trend, but we expect it to remain relatively strong in the coming weeks, and hold above $80 even if the broad correction continues. Further support is found near $68, while resistance is ahead at $125.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO settled down after the crazy period for the coin, as the market digested the effects of the Chinese legislative changes. The coin recovered above the $16.50 level, and although the declining trend is still dominant, the worst should be behind for bulls. Support is found near $16.40 and $13 while strong resistance is ahead at $22, $25, and $30. We expect no new lows for the coin in the coming period, and investors could now buy the short-term dips.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is showing considerable short-term relative strength after holding up well during the crash as well. The declining long-term trendline is now broken and although the $0.64 level is still ahead as primary resistance, we expect the $0.45-$0.48 level to limit the coming dips, and a new uptrend to develop in the coming weeks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 276 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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3 Comments

  1. tieuthanhliem

    September 18, 2017 at 7:28 pm

    As china widens bitcoin crackdown, we can see $2000 again, that said we are in bear market

  2. FalconX

    September 18, 2017 at 8:10 pm

    you meant “between 3000 and 3150” in the first paragraph correct?

  3. embersburnbrightly

    September 19, 2017 at 2:02 am

    “The coin has support at $3800, $3500, and between $300 and $3150.” Between $300 and $3,150 that’s some range! (Sure you meant between $3,000 and $3,150.)

    🙂

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Analysis

Europe Drags Stocks Lower while Trade War Fears Return

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The risk-off shift of Friday continued today throughout the major financial markets, with the German political standoff on migration weighing on investors sentiment as well, besides the emerging market troubles, and the trade skirmish between the US and China. All of the major US indices opened the week lower, with Europe clearly underperforming and Asian equities also being under pressure.

As Chinese announced retaliatory tariffs are after last week’s US steps the week could bring upon another round of measures by the Trump administration and with that, the escalation of the trade tensions is very much a possibility again.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Despite today’s losses, the leading indices, especially the Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000, are still just a tad below their all-time highs, while the relatively weak benchmarks are 5-10% below their yearly highs. The balanced S&P 500 is also shy of its all-time, but the short-term uptrend remains intact, and incredibly enough, the benchmark still didn’t leave the range of the early-February crash which unfolded in just 3 days.

Euros Stoxx 50, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The divergence between the leaders and the rest of the global market, continues to point to the fragility of the rally, and as emerging market currencies are sill clearly in trouble, we don’t expect a broad march to new highs in the coming weeks and we remain defensive towards global risk assets.

Commodities Smacked Lower amid Risk-Off Shift

DXY (Dollar Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currencies settled down after their crazy central bank loaded week, with the Dollar pulling back slightly off its highs against the Euro and the Yen, while holding its ground compared to the other majors. The Dollar index broke out of the consolidation pattern as we expected and it is now challenging the multi-month highs set in May.

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar is now trading at a 12-month high against the Canadian Dollar, as the pair left behind the 1.30 level as we expected, while the Aussie is also close to hitting levels not seen since last summer, as Friday’s drop in commodities put pressure on the already weak AUD.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodity traders are licking their wounds after Friday’s rout, although crude oil staged an impressive rebound off the two-month low hit in early trading below $64 per barrel with regards to the WTI contract.

That said, the short-term trend is clearly negative, and     new lows are likely in the coming days, although the much-awaited OPEC meeting later on this week could cause wild swings in the key commodity, with speculation already being rampant about the possible output change by the cartel.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 276 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Consolidate Above Support but Downtrend Still Intact

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It has been a very quiet weekend for the major cryptocurrencies so far, as the predominantly bearish week ended with range trading and a collapse in volumes across the board. Most of the top coins failed to gain back the ground they lost during the steep selloff, with only Binance Coin and VeChain showing meaningful bullish momentum.

The relatively strong Ethereum, EOS, and Ripple remained stable, with ETH hovering around the $500 level, EOS trading north of the key $10 support despite the network’s technical issues, and Ripple being stuck in a narrow range just below the widely-watched $0.54 resistance level. The total capitalization of the market has been virtually unchanged at $280 billion, as both Bitcoin and Ethereum flatlined.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin is trading right at the short-term support level near $6500, holding up just above the April low, with the crucial long-term support zone near $5850 that is vital for the whole segment. The coin is clearly in a short-term downtrend, while also being relatively weak on all time frames. The oversold short-term momentum readings are now cleared and that could point to a test of the lows in the coming days.

 

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum also cleared the short-term oversold readings, but it failed to leave the vicinity of the $500 support/resistance level. Despite the coin’s undoubted relative strength, and the still bullish long-term setup, the short-term trend signal remains a sell, and the declining trend is intact. Traders should still not enter new positions here, while investors could add to their holdings on the short-term selloffs. Strong resistance is ahead between $555 and $575, while further support is found at $450, $400, and $380.

Divide Widens between Leaders and Laggards

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although short-term correlations skyrocketed during last week’s decline, the divergence between the relatively strong and weak coins got even more pronounced, with the likes of Litecoin, Dash, and Monero severely lagging the broader market. Litecoin got stuck below the $100 level after the breakdown last week, and it is below the long-term base pattern, as it failed to show relative strength during the weekend. Immediate support is found at $90, but new lows are likely in the coming days, as the short-term downtrend remains dominant. 

BNB/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As a positive outlier, Binance Coin remained bullish amid the broad decline, holding on to the relative strength that it has been showing for several weeks. The coin’s stability is encouraging, and it’s nearing its rally highs with today’s surge, while having a good chance of resuming its uptrend, even as another segment-wide selloff could cause a jump in volatility again.

For now, the market is torn between bullish and bearish forces, and investors should focus on the technicals of BTC and ETH, while also keeping an eye on the leaders of the rally for signs of sutained strenght.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 276 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bull Market in Jeopardy

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As the crucial rally attempt that we pointed out in our previous long-term analysis failed, and the major coins sold off heavily afterwards, the segment is now in a difficult situation. While Bitcoin and especially Ethereum are still in bullish setups, the most valuable coin is now close to a major breakdown that could lead to structural bear market as we laid it out back in January.

Some of the weaker coins are already below the large-scale consolidation patterns that developed after the year-end run-up, and as the divergence between the leaders and the laggards widens, the path of the two dominant coins even more importance.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin failed to trigger a short-term buy signal throughout the Ethereum-led rally in May and early June, and that technical weakness still persists, as BTC is now trading right at the April low, testing the key long-term base pattern.

A break below the strong support zone near $5850 would be the first similar event since the beginning of the bear market in 2014, and it could lead to an extended period of bearish bias for Bitcoin after the spectacular bull run of 2017. For now, the bull market is intact, with support found near between $6000 and $6275, at $5850 and below that at $5500, while resistance is ahead at $6500, $7000, $7350, and $7650.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Although Ethereum is clearly stronger from a technical perspective compared to Bitcoin, the coin is struggling to hold the key $500 level, as it is resumed its short-term downtrend. The April lows are well below the current price level and the long-term setup is bullish, so long-term investors could still add to their positions during the selloffs. Resistance above $500 is ahead between $555 and $575, while strong support is near $450, $400, $380.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 276 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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