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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Monero, Litecoin, Stellar, Dash

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Crytpocurrencies are having a quiet and slightly bearish session, as Bitcoin failed to follow through on its recent break-out, so far, although it is holding on above its prior high despite the weak momentum. Ripple, Ethereum Classic, Dash, and Monero are among the relatively strong coins of the day. The smaller altcoins are more active today in general (see our previous update for details), as the market digests the new highs of the two major coins, BTC and ETH.

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Bitcoin

BTC is at a very important point, as a failed break-out attempt, and a break below the prior high could set up a quick decline towards the dominant trendline at $2500 or the top of the short-term base near $2350.  That said, BTC is still on a buy signal and should the currency break above yesterday’s high, the Fibonacci-based targets for the move would still be $3050 and $3260, with the prior swing-low at $2477 providing primary support.

Ripple

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Ripple remained in virtually unchanged today, but there are some positive signs showing up on the charts especially as XRP/BTC broke a minor trendline which could be the start of a period of relative strength. A move above the more prominent trend-line near 0.000115 would trigger a break-out trade in the Bitcoin pair and the USD pair as well.

Ethereum

Ethereum is still a hold, despite the lack of momentum, as it is still trading between the $250 and the $265 levels in a narrow short-term range on the USD pair, while being stuck in a consolidation pattern on the BTC pair.  The short-term upside targets for a move above the Fibonacci-resistance are still $280 and $300 for ETH/USD, with the dominant rising trend line providing support just below $250.

Monero

XMR is still showing the relative strength that we have been monitoring in recent days, as it remains on a buy signal both against the USD and BTC. The coin attempted a break-out overnight, but it couldn’t hold above the prior all-time high in the USD pair. Long-term traders might ease up on their holdings after the attempt and wait for a re-entry point, but the rising short-term trend remains intact.

Litecoin

LTC is trading inside the convergence zone that we pointed out recently, and both the short- and long-term setups remain unchanged in the sideways trading environment.  Short-term traders could still wait for a break-out, but our long-term buy recommendation remains active.

Stellar Lumens

Stellar has given a short-term buy signal against the USD, breaking out from a consolidation pattern near the 0.045 level. The initial target of the move is at 0.0585, with the prior highs providing the next target at 0.066. The prior swing low is near 0.039, providing primary support for the coin.

Dash

The Dash/USD pair is still in the same setup as yesterday, despite the strength that the coin showed in early trading. The Dollar pair is still bullish, although we are still waiting for a sustained break-out above the $150 level, with an initial target of $166, and further targets at $176 and $183.

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. embersburnbrightly

    June 7, 2017 at 11:15 pm

    You were right on the money regarding Bitcoin and a possible decline, as it is currently in free-fall. Not such a bad thing for a long-term investor like me, who will simply wait until it bottoms out and then buy more at the cheaper price.

    • embersburnbrightly

      June 7, 2017 at 11:34 pm

      I might have overstated the severity of the current decline in value, as “freefall” might be too strong of a word. Definitely an observable decline over the past 12 hours, but looking at its value over the past week, it is still up in value from where it was just 7 days ago. I’ll just keep watching to see if it has the serious drop that would merit a bigger buy opportunity. I’m still new at this, so I’m easily excitable, I suppose. Need to remember that patience and true objectivity are the keys to long-term investing. I’m also just learning to look at the bigger picture of things and using larger patterns than 12 hour timeframes to make any huge decisions; short of any truly drastic drops that would provide spectacular buy opportunities.

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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ripple Continues Rampage as Litecoin and Ethereum Enter Correction

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Ripple remained in the center of attention in the segment after breaking out to a new all-time high yesterday, and the coin almost doubled in value, climbing above the $0.80 level. The currency concluded a 6-month long consolidation pattern with the move after being the only major on a long-term buy signal in our trend model.

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XRP gave a short-term sell signal today, while turning neutral regarding the long-term setup. Investors now shouldn’t add to their positions, although further gains are still possible, and reducing holdings somewhat is a good idea here. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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While Bitcoin stagnated, and Bitcoin Cash jumped, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA has been drifting slightly lower, although the recent gains are still mostly intact, and the basic setup in the segment is unchanged.

Litecoin fell below the $300 level after yesterday’s consolidation, and the coin faced strong selling pressure in the latter half of the session. The currency remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum indicators, and although the short-term uptrend is still intact, a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2668 -0.02%
DAX 13125 -0.45%
WTI Crude Oil 56.65 -0.68%
GOLD 1258.00 1.35%
Bitcoin 16,100 -6.32%
EUR/USD 1.1842 0.73%

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.

Cryptocurrencies

As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
11:30 UK Average Earnings 2.5% 2.5% 2.3%
11:30 UK Claimant Count Change 5,900 3,300 6,500
11:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2% 4.35
15:30 US Core CPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.1 mill -3.6 mill -5.6 mill
21:00 US Fed Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.25%
21:00 US FOMC Statement

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Volatility on the Rise Again, as Ripple and Ethereum Hit Targets

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Ripple has been the star of today’s session in the cryptocurrency segment, as the only major coin on a long-term buy signal in our trend model continued yesterday’s break-out, and surged to a new all-time high. The currency cleared the $0.425 level that marked the top in May, and after the more than 6-month long consolidation phase, it promptly neared the $0.50 level.

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While the short-term momentum indicators are now stretched, the coin is still in an encouraging long-term setup, although the best period to buy already passed. The coin could be dragged lower in the case of the expected broad correction in the segment, but we expect XRP to outperform in the coming period, with support levels found at the prior high and below that in the range between $0.30-$0.32.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ethereum has been the other top coin on the rise, as the second largest digital currency surged past the final range projection target of the break-out two weeks ago at $685 in the aftermath of the launch of the BTC futures on Monday. The ETH token is now also on a sell signal on all time-frames, and we advise investors and investors to wait for the next major correction to establish new positions. Support levels are now found at $575, $500, $480, and $400.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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