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Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Retreats from Record Highs as Rally Stalls

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Bitcoin was in the center of attention again as the most valuable coin reached a marginal new all-time high on Sunday, but turned back lower today towards the $6000 level. Bullish rumors from China is boosting the segment today, but with the long-term picture clearly being overbought, the short-term uptrend might be in danger in the coming days as well. The negative divergence in the MACD indicator also points to a fading trend, and investors who are still holding major positions should keep stops tight now. Support levels are found near $5800, $5400, and around the $5000 level.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Altcoins were less volatile than BTC, and although they mostly followed Bitcoin, the majority of the major coins is little changed since Friday. Ethereum is holding up above the $300 level still well within is lengthy trading range, while Ripple still trades close to the $0.20 support. Ethereum Classic is the positive surprise of the session, as the previously weak coin is showing relative strength as it is consolidating just below key support. As the long-term remains positive for the segment in general, let’s see how the short-term charts look.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The price of the ETH token got close to the $315 level thanks to the weekend rally, but the coin remained stuck inside the dominant trading range, as it continues to edge closer to the long-term trendline. We still expect a break-out of the range towards the resistance levels ahead between $330 and $350, at $380, and near the $400 level. Below $300, key support is found at $285 and $250.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin is still one of the least volatile majors as it continues to hover around the $56 level, while trading in a bullish consolidation pattern. Strong support levels are still found at $53, $51, and $44, but we expect a move above the current range in the coming week, as the long-term picture is encouraging while momentum is neutral. Targets for a bullish move are found at $64 and $75.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is also trading in a low-volatility range just as Litecoin, and the coin is also among the relatively strong majors regarding the long-term picture. The currency is headed for a confluence zone of the declining short-term trendline and the $285 support, and we expect it to resume the long-term uptrend soon. Dash is facing strong resistance at $300, $330, and $360, while primary support is found near $265.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is showing some relative strength after settling down following a volatile decline near $0.20. The coin is still trading inside a long-term trading range, as the $0.30 level stopped the rally yet again, while the short-term setup is gradually improving. Short-term traders should still wait with opening new positions, with resistance zones ahead above the current range near $22.50 and $0.26.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is finally acting bullish, as far as the short-term picture is concerned, but the coin remains stuck in a downtrend, while facing several strong resistance levels as well. The $11 price level is the primary obstacle, with the declining short-term trendline being very close too. Short-term traders could play a move above $11 in the coming days, while long-term investors should keep an eye on the resistance zone around $13.50 for a bullish confirmation.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero has been the least volatile major in recent days, as the coin is trading near the midpoint of the lengthy trading range that developed after the September crash. While we still expect sideways price action, the volatility compression points to a looming break-out, while the long-term picture is clearly bullish. Primary resistance is ahead at $100, with further targets at $125, and near $150.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is still trading between $27 and $30, as the coin continues to consolidate the post-crash surge that breached the $40 level in early October. We expect the currency to re-test that zone in the coming weeks, and move above $30 could be imminent. Below $27 further strong support is found at $25 and near $22.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA continues to trade in a declining trend despite last week’s encouraging rally, but the coin is not far off the dominant trendline. Short-term traders should still wait for a move out of the pattern, while investors could still add to their positions here. Primary resistance is ahead in the $0.45-$0.48 zone, with further targets at $0.56 and $0.64, and crucial support at $0.35.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 295 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Altcoins Reverse Gains as Bitcoin’s Surge Fizzles Out

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The cryptocurrency market had one of the wildest days in months following yesterday’s epic short-squeeze in Bitcoin that triggered a strong segment-wide rally. While Bitcoin managed to break through several key resistance levels, the major altcoins failed to join the break-out, even as temporarily, some of them managed to move above primary resistance.

Ethereum topped $500 briefly, while Ripple cleared the $0.51 level, as BTC neared the $7650 resistance, but altcoins failed to trigger short-term buy signals, as they promptly reversed gains. As correlations remained very high despite the rally, and a bullish leadership is still missing, the market as a whole still shows bearish characteristics, even as the buy signal is intact in Bitcoin, for now.

Yesterday we also pointed out the relative weakness of altcoins and traders should still remain cautious with new positions, as, despite the recent moves, the technical setup is still unchanged in the segment.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although Bitcoin reached the next major resistance level at $7650, the weak altcoins now dragged the largest coin back below the $7350 support, and the odds of failed break-out are growing in BTC as well. While the buy signal is intact, the coin needs to stay above $7000 to avoid a bearish reversal, with further support below that found at $6750 and $6500.

Ethereum’s Reversal Warns of a Fake-Out

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While ETH was close to triggering a buy signal, we warned traders that without follow-through the short-term trading range and the declining trend would remain unchanged. The relative weakness of Ethereum persisted today as well, and the coin failed to stay above $500, and now it’s back on a short-term sell signal, and it gave back all off yesterday’s late-day surge.  Primary support is still found at $450, with other levels at $420, $400, $380, and $360 while resistance is ahead at $500 and between $555 and $575.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The bearish leaders, like LTC, Monero, NEO, and Dash couldn’t get durably back above the key breakdown levels, and the major altcoins all followed a similar path to ETH thanks to the elevated correlations. As no buy signals popped up, a trend change wasn’t completed even in the relatively stronger coins. The failed break-outs could point to another move towards the June lows, and traders should still remain cautious with new positions here.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple couldn’t durably move above key $0.51 level despite yesterday’s move, and the coin is now back below the primary $0.49 support following the bearish reversal. The relatively weak coin is still well above the June low, but another test is now likely, and the long-term setups remain dangerous. Further resistance is ahead at $0.54 and at $0.575, while primary support is now found at $0.45.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 295 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Stocks Mixed as Dollar Tests Highs Again

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Choppy summer trading conditions continue to dominate traditional financial markets, with low train volumes and relatively narrow intraday ranges in most of the asset classes. Despite the low activity, there is still a clear rising trend in US markets, while the rest of the world tries to gather some bullish momentum despite the widespread technical relative weakness.

Trump’s controversial meeting with Putin still made the most headlines, although stocks largely ignored the story, while trade war fears and the Brexit drama had much stronger impacts, with especially the Pound performing weaker than its peers.

Dow Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Nasdaq is still trading just below its all-time high, despite today’s weaker session, while the S&P 500 hit another marginal 5-month high today, with the Dow still lagging behind the rest of the market. The ongoing earnings season also adds to the choppiness of the day-to-day price action, and with the deep global divergences still present, we remain defensive towards equities here.

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Asian equities experienced a bounce in the last couple of weeks, but China which has been the epicenter of the weakness in June is still struggling to join the move. The trade-war torn Shanghai Composite is still trading near its recent lows, confirming the bear market, while the Yuan hit new 12-month lows compared to the USD in the last couple of days again.

Commodities Mixed as Yuan Tumbles but Dollar Rally Looms

Emerging market currencies are generally under pressure, and the Dollar has been pushing higher against its major peers as well today, with the Great British Pound and the Euro both sliding towards their June lows, and the Yen hitting a new year-to-date low before the afternoon pullback in the Greenback.

Dollar Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar’s rally, which was boosted by the lower than expected British CPI release in European trading paused somewhat in late trading, after the Dollar index got close to its 1-year high. The US housing market showed a huge drop in activity in July, with Building Permits disappointing and Housing Starts falling off a cliff unexpectedly. The rising yields, which are behind most of the moves this year, are talking a tall on the segment, and that could be a major drag on GDP growth in the coming quarter.

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities posted a reversal-like performance today, with gold, oil, and copper all rebounding off their early lows, but for now, the bearish short-term trend remains dominant in the segment. The bounce in gold still left the precious metal below short-term resistance at $1240, while copper is still bouncing around just above long-term support. WTI Crude Oil which lost more than 10% in a matter of days, found support at $66 per barrel, entering a consolidation phase after the rout.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 295 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Technical Analysis: BTC/Tether

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Tradingview is a web application that allows full charting abilities for free. Different online brokerages have different charting abilities and tools.  Using tradingview.com, I was able to utilize Fibonacci zones with the following levels: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 100.00%. I did not set support or resistance levels because they are irrelevant to this analysis. Using indicators such as volume, moving-average convergence divergence (MACD), and Relative Strength Indicators, we are able to predict the movement in the price of Bitcoin relative to Tether. One Tether (USDT) is equal to one U.S dollar, give or take 3 cents.

This 3 day analysis uses price movements plunging into the 61.8% Fibonacci zone to trigger a buy signal. From there, we verify the buy signal with the MACD indicator below the chart. Notice how the MACD looks like a sell signal, but in fact goes back negative. Moving from a negative spread to a positive spread, triggers the buy signal as the price bounces off of the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

Following the next two days, I conducted another analysis using the same strategy. This time I inserted a support where three touches occur in the price.  Bitcoin’s price took a dive on volume pointing to a massive selloff. We were able to capitalize on this by waiting until the price crossed the Fibonacci barrier into the 61.8% zone. From there, the MACD spread checked out at -8.68. A buy signal was created and we waited until the price neared the top of the 50.0% zone.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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1 stars on average, based on 1 rated postsMichael Genna works in Business Development at Benzinga, a financial media and technology company located in downtown Detroit. He attends Wayne State University, majoring in finance with a minor in economics.




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