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Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Price Tests $3800 as Coins Remain Stable

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BTC was in the center of attention since yesterday, as the coin touched the $3800 support after surging to $4150 following last week’s crash. The most valuable coin is still in the process of the SegWit2x activation, and with the consensus regarding the scaling proposal being fragile, another hard fork in the currency is a possibility, after last month’s Bitcoin Cash fork. Bitcoin broke below the rising short-term trendline overnight, but it is still holding well above the crucial $3800 level after the test, with the $4000 resistance being close as well. Should the coin recover and stay above the $4000 level, the dominant short-term downtrend could be broken, but for now the re-test of at least the $3500 price level is still more likely before a sustained move higher.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The choppy market that action that we expected took hold of the rest of the majors as well, with most of the coins trading in relatively narrow ranges after last week’s extremely volatile environment. Today’s session is especially calm before the Fed’s meeting, as lots of major players are taking a break ahead of the much-awaited announcement. Dash is still the strongest altcoin, holding up above $330 near its bounce highs, and relatively close to the all-time high too. The rest of the market slid lower since yesterday, while the technical setup remained unchanged. The next few days will be crucial so for the correction, so let’s what the short-term charts show.

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Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETH is drifting lower along the declining short-term trendline, and it still very close to the crucial $285 support/resistance level after touching the $300 level amid the bounce. The MACD is slightly bearish as the momentum of the rebound faded away. That said, a recovery above $300 would open up the way to $330, but a re-test of the $250 level is still more likely, with further support at $235.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin remains below the initial rally high and the $56 resistance, as the coin is still among the weaker ones regarding the short-term performance. The currency is hovering around the rising long-term trendline since the recovery, while the $51 support limited the downside movement this week. With the long-term momentum being neutral, we still expect more sideways price action and a likely dip below $50 before a move above the key $64 resistance.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is outperforming all of the majors today, as the coin is attempting a move towards the $360 resistance in the face of the broadly declining prices. The currency is still the only major clearly above the short-term trendline, and it is also well above the $300 level. The MACD is slightly overbought, but a durable move above the prior swing high near $345, would be a very bullish sign. Strong support is still found near $300 and $265, with resistance ahead at $360.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP followed the market lower overnight, and it remains below the key resistance near $19.50 and the declining short-term trendline. The coin is back to neutral concerning both the short- and long-term momentum, and traders should still wait with new positions until a new trend is established. Investors could add to their positions as the correction concludes, as we expect strong relative performance form the currency in the coming weeks. Support is found at $0.18 and $0.16 while crucial resistance is still ahead around the $0.22 level.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic remains in a weak technical position following the break below the key $13.50 level during last week’s crash. The coin is below a long-term and a short-term trendline, and the MACD is back at neutral levels after clearing the oversold readings. Traders should wait at least for a break above the trendlines before opening new positions. Strong resistance levels are at $16 and $18, while support is found near $9.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is stuck below the $100 level, and the coin is still trading inside the declining trendline as well. XMR is showing short-term weakness as it almost dipped below the weekend low overnight, while it decoupled from Dash after a lengthy period of strong correlation. Support levels are found near $80 and $68, while primary resistance is at $125, and we expect further corrective price action before a break-out from the short-term trend.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is getting close to the declining trendline that defined the more than one-month long correction in the price of the coin. The trendline is converging with the $22 level now, forming a strong resistance zone above the current rate.  The $20 level remains the mid-point of the current trading range, and further resistance ahead at$25, and $30 while support near $16.50 and $13.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA exited the declining trendline after the crash, showing considerable relative strength, and it remained in favorable technical position despite the overnight dip. We expect the coin perform better than the segment’s average, even as the broad correction is expected to continue. Long-term investors should already buy the short-term dips with key support near the $0.45-$0.48 level, while resistance ahead at $0.65 and $0.75.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 231 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Technical Update: NASDAQ and S&P 500 Approaching their Intermediate-Term Supports

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Technical Overview

  • After breaking their short-term supports (white trendlines in Figure 1, 2 & 3) on Friday (April 20), U.S. indices continued sliding into this week.
  • Given the lack of any major support levels within the range spanning from the low on April 2 to the high on April 18, U.S. indices moved sharply lower on Tuesday (April 24).

S&P 500

  • Next major resistance – the trendline connecting the January & March highs (orange trendline in Figure 1, currently at 2,736).
  • Next major support – the intermediate-term support (ITS – violet trendline, currently at 2,605).

Figure 1. S&P 500 Daily

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NASDAQ

  • NASDAQ’s intermediate-term support (ITS) is of extreme importance as it overlaps with the neckline of a large H&S pattern (tops – red ellipses in Figure 2). A break below the ITS activates a target of 6,000 (vertical yellow trendline). Note, the pattern is tentative until the neckline is broken.
  • Next major resistance – the trendline connecting the March & April highs (orange trendline, currently at 7,265).
  • Next major support – the intermediate-term support (violet trendline, currently at 6,885)

Figure 2. NASDAQ Daily Chart

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DJIA

  • Today’s decline intensified after the index broke back below its 2018 Resistance (red trendline Figure 3).
  • Next major resistance – 2018 Resistance is expected to continue serving as resistance after today’s move below it
  • Next major support – Feb & April lows at roughly 23,350 (green horizontal trendline).

 Figure 3. Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Chart

Implications

  • Breaks of the intermediate-term supports for both S&P 500 and NASDAQ will carry significant bearish implications, with downside targets of at least 10 to 15%.
  • NASDAQ’s monthly chart depicts why a potential break of the ITS may lead to declines sharper than the ones observed in February and mid-March. Since June 2016, the index has marched higher, in an almost vertical fashion. Upward movement implied by the steep slope of the intermediate-term support is unsustainable in the very long run (violet trendline in Figure 4). Eventually, once the ITS is broken, the index is expected to retest its long-term support (dark blue trendline).

Figure 4. NASDAQ Monthly Chart

Outlook

  • Neutral with a bearish bias. While price action points to a likely retest and potential break of the intermediate term supports, outlook is not outright bearish until confirmation is received.
  • Short- and long-term bearish if S&P 500 and NASDAQ break their respective intermediate-term supports.
  • S&P 500 and NASDAQ need to hold their intermediate-term supports and break above the orange trendlines for outlook to shift to bullish, at least in the short-term.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

ICON versus TenX: What You Should Know

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There are so many cryptocurrencies out there.  As the flow of ICOs continues, more tokens are added almost daily.  It may be some consolation that more the 80% of these tokens use the Ethereum platform and that means their value is connected to the mothership.  It may also help to remember that there are plenty of crypto exchanges that will unload your coin once the ICO is complete.

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That’s fine, but this takes time not to mention the fees that get tacked on along the way.  And if there has been a proliferation of currencies, now about every Fortune 500 company wants their own blockchain.  Instead of putting all of our efforts on figuring out who has the smartest contracts or which is the best crypto, maybe we should look for someone to connect all these dots.  My guess is this notion will be a big feature of Gen IV crypto technology.

Here Are Two Prospects

Of the most successful ICOs in 2017, two are really eye catching for their vision of connecting cryptocurrencies and networks.

TenX claims they will make all cryptocurrencies spendable through a debit card ranked. That vision made them $64 million during their token sale, enough for the tenth spot on the list of largest intakes. 

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The ICON project will be building one of the largest decentralized networks in the world. The total raised of $43 million was good enough for the #13 ranking of top 2017 ICOs. Before going deeper, let’s first take a look at TenX.

TenX Could Be a 10

TenX has an audacious plan to connect digital currencies and in the process disrupt one of the biggest financial monopolies in existence.  They are out to create a massive payment channel dubbed COMIT which stands for Cryptographically-secure Off-chain Multi-asset Instant Transmission network.  How does their white paper describe COMIT? It looks just like the Internet.

In simple terms, TenX is out to get a banking license, then use their own debit card running on the COMIT network to challenge the MasterCard, Visa, American Express monopoly.  The beauty of TenX is the ability to use any coin or token to buy goods and services with one card.

Even if a merchant doesn’t happen to accept crypto, no problem, TenX converts the crypto to the fiat currency.

This is the future of cryptocurrencies.  As bitcoin leads the way with some 10,000 mostly online merchants acceptance of other cryptos will follow. However, the amount of time involved in winning the game will be considerable. We are talking about a startup company attempting to capitalize on mass adoption of crypto as a medium of exchange.  So far fewer than 1% of all transactions fit that category.

Around the year 2000, online merchants accounted for 1% of all retail sales.  Some 18 years later, it amounts to just under 10%.

ICON: Connecting Networks

For those who really enjoy digging into the technical detail, here is how their whitepaper describes the project.

With ICON, numbers of blockchains are connected around Nexus via Portal. Nexus is a loopchainbased blockchain. Nexus is a Multi-Channel blockchain comprised of Light Client of respective blockchains.

Tokens called ICX (ICON Exchange) are embedded in Nexus and the interconnected blockchains can use ICX to transfer values. As a blockchain itself, Nexus can be connected to another Nexus, allowing different blockchains with different governance structures to execute transactions and exchange values.

For us simpler folks, think of the earliest days of the Internet.  Over 30 years ago, the Internet consisted of a bazillion independent networks throughout the world.  Then somebody came up with TCP/IP and presto, the modern Internet was born.

Use cases for ICX go beyond connecting currencies – they connect blockchains and that means doing something akin to TCP/IP.  So we are talking about things like connecting separate health systems and much more.

Just like TenX, the question for ICON is how long their plan will take and will $43 million be enough to deliver the bacon. However, for those investors looking for a Gen IV play, ICON is a candidate.  

Like about every other currency, ICX came down hard from its $9.95 price on January 30 to a $1.89 low earlier this month. Since then it has bounced back and is hovering around $4.30 at the time of this writing.  Raising $43 million may not be enough to get ICON to the promised land but it shows that a lot of serious investors did their research and bought the promise.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 62 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ethereum Tops $700 as Short-Term Sell Signals Pop Up

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The major cryptocurrencies are having another strong session, with all of the top 10 coins sporting gains, adding more than 5% on average since yesterday. The largest digital currencies are trading in clear short-term uptrends, with the broad declining trendlines also being broken in most cases.

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That said, the short-term momentum indicators are overbought with regards to altcoins, and now several majors triggered short-term sell signals following the first signal by IOTA yesterday. While this doesn’t mean that traders should exit all short-term positions here, taking some profits and/or setting tighter stop losses is advised, as there will likely be opportunities with much better risk/reward profiles to re-enter the market.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin finally topped the $9000-$9200 resistance zone after a period of relative weakness, further boosting the already positive overall picture. The momentum of the move is still not stellar, but the coin is still not severely overbought, and although a deeper pullback is still likely soon and short-term traders shouldn’t open new positions here, a test of the $10,000 level is still possible in the coming days. The long-term setup is clearly bullish, and investors could still add to their holdings during the short-term pullbacks, with further support found at $8400.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continued to rally, despite the already overbought reading, and now the coin is severely overbought, and a correction is very likely in the coming days, so short-term traders should exit their positions or use tight stop losses here. We expect the rally to continue after a correction, and long-term investors should hold on to their coins. Resistance zones are ahead near $735 and $780, while primary support is between $625 and $645.

Altcoins Overbought but Uptrend Intact

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While correlations are getting lower and lower among the major coins, which is a bullish sign, most of them are already overbought from a short-term perspective. Although further gains are still possible, chasing those coins higher here is not a good strategy, even as the long-term setups remain encouraging.

Litecoin, ETC, and NEO are not severely overbought yet, while Ripple, Stellar, and Cardano are already in short-term corrections clearing the overbought readings, but traders should be cautious with Dash, EOS, Monero, and IOTA as they are ripe for a move lower.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 231 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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