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Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Price Tests $3800 as Coins Remain Stable

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BTC was in the center of attention since yesterday, as the coin touched the $3800 support after surging to $4150 following last week’s crash. The most valuable coin is still in the process of the SegWit2x activation, and with the consensus regarding the scaling proposal being fragile, another hard fork in the currency is a possibility, after last month’s Bitcoin Cash fork. Bitcoin broke below the rising short-term trendline overnight, but it is still holding well above the crucial $3800 level after the test, with the $4000 resistance being close as well. Should the coin recover and stay above the $4000 level, the dominant short-term downtrend could be broken, but for now the re-test of at least the $3500 price level is still more likely before a sustained move higher.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The choppy market that action that we expected took hold of the rest of the majors as well, with most of the coins trading in relatively narrow ranges after last week’s extremely volatile environment. Today’s session is especially calm before the Fed’s meeting, as lots of major players are taking a break ahead of the much-awaited announcement. Dash is still the strongest altcoin, holding up above $330 near its bounce highs, and relatively close to the all-time high too. The rest of the market slid lower since yesterday, while the technical setup remained unchanged. The next few days will be crucial so for the correction, so let’s what the short-term charts show.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETH is drifting lower along the declining short-term trendline, and it still very close to the crucial $285 support/resistance level after touching the $300 level amid the bounce. The MACD is slightly bearish as the momentum of the rebound faded away. That said, a recovery above $300 would open up the way to $330, but a re-test of the $250 level is still more likely, with further support at $235.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin remains below the initial rally high and the $56 resistance, as the coin is still among the weaker ones regarding the short-term performance. The currency is hovering around the rising long-term trendline since the recovery, while the $51 support limited the downside movement this week. With the long-term momentum being neutral, we still expect more sideways price action and a likely dip below $50 before a move above the key $64 resistance.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is outperforming all of the majors today, as the coin is attempting a move towards the $360 resistance in the face of the broadly declining prices. The currency is still the only major clearly above the short-term trendline, and it is also well above the $300 level. The MACD is slightly overbought, but a durable move above the prior swing high near $345, would be a very bullish sign. Strong support is still found near $300 and $265, with resistance ahead at $360.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP followed the market lower overnight, and it remains below the key resistance near $19.50 and the declining short-term trendline. The coin is back to neutral concerning both the short- and long-term momentum, and traders should still wait with new positions until a new trend is established. Investors could add to their positions as the correction concludes, as we expect strong relative performance form the currency in the coming weeks. Support is found at $0.18 and $0.16 while crucial resistance is still ahead around the $0.22 level.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic remains in a weak technical position following the break below the key $13.50 level during last week’s crash. The coin is below a long-term and a short-term trendline, and the MACD is back at neutral levels after clearing the oversold readings. Traders should wait at least for a break above the trendlines before opening new positions. Strong resistance levels are at $16 and $18, while support is found near $9.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is stuck below the $100 level, and the coin is still trading inside the declining trendline as well. XMR is showing short-term weakness as it almost dipped below the weekend low overnight, while it decoupled from Dash after a lengthy period of strong correlation. Support levels are found near $80 and $68, while primary resistance is at $125, and we expect further corrective price action before a break-out from the short-term trend.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is getting close to the declining trendline that defined the more than one-month long correction in the price of the coin. The trendline is converging with the $22 level now, forming a strong resistance zone above the current rate.  The $20 level remains the mid-point of the current trading range, and further resistance ahead at$25, and $30 while support near $16.50 and $13.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA exited the declining trendline after the crash, showing considerable relative strength, and it remained in favorable technical position despite the overnight dip. We expect the coin perform better than the segment’s average, even as the broad correction is expected to continue. Long-term investors should already buy the short-term dips with key support near the $0.45-$0.48 level, while resistance ahead at $0.65 and $0.75.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Trade War Optimism Sparks Another Bounce in Stocks

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Global stocks are markedly higher today before the US open, Donald Trump’s quite aggressive negotiating seem to be paying off, at least with regards to China, as in the wake of the pronounced weakness in Chinese assets, and the notable slowdown in the economy, the country wants to reopen the talks with the US.

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Shanghai Composite hit a new bear market low overnight before recovering above support into the close, and the Dollar’s rally also ran into resistance, thanks to the Yuan’s bounce of its fresh 13-month low. Emerging market assets are also somewhat higher today, with the help of the Turkish Lira’s continued bounce, but the segment is still deeply wounded technically, and more pain is almost inevitably ahead, as the negative trends still stand.

 

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Walmart’s great earnings report also fueled the pre-market rally in US futures, as the retail segment in the largest economy still seems to be doing just fine, despite the global woes. The major US indices are after an orderly looking correction, in stark contrast with their European and Asian peers, which are stuck in broader downtrends or even full-blown bear markets.

Nasdaq, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Yesterday’s tech selloff, which was triggered by the weak report of Chinese giant Tencent has almost been erased after the better than expected numbers of Cisco restored confidence in the market-leading segment. Nvidia (NVDA) will also report after the market close, and as the earnings season is drawing to a close, we can conclude that corporate profits had a blowout quarter in the US, even as cracks in the global economy appeared.

Momentum is still clearly on the side of the FAANGS and the whole US tech sector even after discounting Facebook’s recent plunge, but should the tightening cycle of the Fed continue to drain liquidity from financial markets and should the rising trend in rates persist, we expect valuations to suddenly matter soon.

Dollar Pulls Back

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The possible resumption of the US-Chinese trade talks sparked a, so far, weak correction, which also due from a technical standpoint, with the EUR/USD pair finding support near $1.13, and with the broader Dollar Index running into resistance near the 97 level. The rally in the reserve currency is no danger by any means, as the break-out is clearly intact, but a deeper pullback would help risk-assets in the coming days.

WTI Crude oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities are slightly higher thanks to the relief rally in emerging markets and the dip in the Dollar, but the previously stronger crude oil is just holding up above the $65 support, while gold is clearly below $1200, and copper couldn’t get back anywhere near yesterday’s break-down level close to $2.70.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Stabilizes but Bulls Not Out of the Woods

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The cryptocurrency segment looks much better than any time in the last 10 days, as the major coins managed to hold up above the liquidation lows hit on Tuesday. While the bounce stabilized the market, there is still substantial fragility following the steep selloff, and until further bullish moves, traders shouldn’t enter full positions.

That said, finally, there are signs of relative strength among the top coins as correlations are slightly lower, and some of the bearish leaders managed to recapture key resistance levels. Litecoin is trading right at the crucial $56 level, while Monero is above the $90 level, and as we noted before the exhaustion of their downtrend is a positive sign or the whole segment.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The bounce and the following stability triggered a few upgrades in our trend model after spending almost 1 month in the sell zone, but there are still no majors on a buy signal as the segment-wide downtrend remains intact. Bitcoin remains the strongest coin from a technical perspective, while Ethereum and Ripple, which showed weakness for weeks, are also in better shape, even as they face very strong resistance levels.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum managed to hold up above the $275-$280 level during the overnight pullback, and now it faces the $300 resistance level again, trying to build on the recent rally. While the short-term downtrend is intact, and the oversold longer-term momentum readings could fuel a rally in the coming weeks, but now the coin is in a structural bear market after the break below $400.

The coin is now neutral from a short-term standpoint, but a move below $275 would point to another test of the lows. Further resistance is ahead at $3335 and $360, while strong long-term support is at $260.

Bitcoin Still Below $6500 as XRP Nears $0.30

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Not much has changed for Bitcoin in recent days, but relatively speaking the largest coin showed significant strength. That said, until BTC doesn’t show bullish momentum, traders still shouldn’t enter positions, as the structurally important $5850 level is still not far below the current price level. A move above $6500 would trigger a short-term buy signal, but further strong resistance levels are ahead at $6750 and $7000, while support is still found at $6275 and $6000.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple and Ethereum are in very similar technical setups, and XRP is also facing strong resistance at $0.30 after finding support overnight near $0.275. After the panicky spike below $0.26, the odds of a durable increased, and should the coin stay above the overnight lows, the coin could avoid another short-term sell signal. While traders should still stay away from entering full positions here, a bottoming process might already be underway.

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Ethereum Takes Baby Steps to Recovery as Global Markets Surge 10%

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Following the first serious rebound from the last week’s carnage the global market gained 10% overnight, pushing back through the $200 billion barrier after a brief dip to $190 billion yesterday.

Ethereum Price Recovery

The rebound was not distributed equally, with many of the altcoins which had previously lost the most now benefiting in turn. Ethereum made a strong push in the last twenty-fours as it climbed from a near year-long low of $254.56 up to the current range in the $280’s, where it sits at the time of writing.

The 11% gains for the day sound good, but amount to relatively little in dollar value considering how much the coin lost in recent weeks. At one point during the night ETH climbed to a unit price of $290 – but that’s as far as it could go during this particular twenty-four stretch.

The sudden surge over the last twenty-four hours wasn’t enough to take Ethereum to the £300 mark, although that could be achieved following another 5% growth. The current $284 price per ETH is still one of the lowest witnessed in the last 11 months, so there’s still plenty of scope for investors to jump on board.

Predictably, USDT trades are the most popular today, making up close to 20% of the daily total as a significant portion of ETH becomes un-tethered. Wash-trades, or transaction mining on multiple exchanges once again comes close to equalling the actual recorded daily volume of $1.8 billion.

Global Surge Re-Rearranges Altcoins

While nothing could be termed normal in the crypto world, several coins have returned to their former market cap positions from before the dip. EOS is back in 5th place after temporarily being ousted by Stellar, and Cardano has returned to 8th spot after briefly giving up its place to Tether.

TRON and IOTA are still lingering outside the top ten, with Monero holding strong in the 10th spot previously occupied by TRON, and then IOTA in recent times.

Correlation and Causation

You’ve probably seen the Google Trend charts which show an alignment between ‘cryptocurrency’ Google searches, and the total cryptocurrency market cap. Right now the search volume is as low as it has been since before the surge of 2017 – but that isn’t necessarily an indicator of a lack of interest. It just means that people aren’t typing the word ‘cryptocurrency’ (or Bitcoin, which has an immensely larger search volume) into Google any more.

It says nothing about the number of people checking CoinMarketCap every day, and it doesn’t let you know how many people have suddenly become interested again after seeing prices drop to such long-time lows.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 38 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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