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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Near All-Time High, Ripple, Ethereum, Monero, Stellar, Stratis

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The crypto-market trended broadly higher today, as the most valuable currency was boosting the segment, after a quiet and sideways weekend. Ethereum is unchanged after the break-out to new highs yesterday, as the $250 level is acting as resistance for now. XRP is still trading in a low-volatility range, hurting short-term traders, while preparing for the next major move.  The up and coming stars are in a consolidation with Stratis, Waves, DigiByte, and Siacoin all still trading below their recent highs against BTC.

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The total value of the market is creeping higher again, passing the $95 billion level, getting very close the historic $100 billion mark. With some interesting setups shaping up, trading activity is expected to increase during the week, providing plenty of trading opportunities both in the majors and the rising coins.

Bitcoin

BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin continued to drift higher during the weekend, and now it’s only 10% off its all-time high, now trading above the $2600 level.  BTC has been very resilient following the steep selloff ten days ago and that stabilized the altcoins as well. A re-test of the previous high seems likely in the coming days, and although a long-term double-top formation is not ruled out, a break-out to new highs could be in the works. Bitcoin is a hold now, but speculative long positions could be opened in anticipation of a break-out.

Ripple

XRP/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP is consolidating near the $28 level in the USD pair, while trending lower compared to the rallying BTC. XRP/USD is still on a buy signal since breaking-out from the two-week long consolidation pattern, but the current relative weakness compared to BTC points to more consolidation, so traders should wait for signs of strength before opening new positions.

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum hasn’t followed through on yesterday’s break-out against BTC, as it rebounded off the 0.10 level, but as of now, it’s still inside the advancing trend channel, and its right at its all-time high in Dollar terms, just below the $250 level.  The upside targets for the rally are around $280 and $300 but a move below $230 would warn of re-test of the $200 level.

ETH/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XMR is showing relative strength against BTC, and it might be ready to launch a rally towards the previous all-time highs at $58 on the Dollar pair in the coming days. With no significant resistance zones found above the $50 level, an advance above that would be a very bullish sign.

XMR/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stellar Lumens

STR/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stellar has been acting weak recently compared to BTC, and it remains in a downtrend. The coin has to hold above the 0.0000135 support, and traders should wait for a break-out from the short-term consolidation pattern on the STR/BTC chart before opening new positions in either the BTC or the Dollar pair.

Stratis

Stratis/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stratis continues to struggle with the resistance it hit over the weekend against BTC, and it broke below the rising short-term trend-line in the pair, which also warns of further correction. Short-term traders should still avoid the coin, with the 0.2875 level still providing a possible turning point for Stratis, should the correction continue.

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8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. bitsurfer

    June 6, 2017 at 12:55 am

    Thanks Mate!

  2. Ershad

    June 6, 2017 at 12:56 am

    Hi Mate,

    Thanks for your article, I wanted to ask what are you thoughts regarding Steem?

    Kind regards,
    Ershad

    • Ershad

      June 6, 2017 at 12:57 am

      Also Mate, what is the target for XRP?

      Kind regards,
      Ershad

      • Mate Cser

        June 6, 2017 at 1:07 am

        Hi Ershad,

        Steem is on the watchlist, stay tuned for a trade recommendation! If you have are holding, it’s still looking good, I wouldn’t sell here.

      • Mate Cser

        June 6, 2017 at 1:10 am

        If it breaks out from the current pattern, my initial target would be around the prior high on the Dollar pair, near 0.42. For now, XRP looks suspiciously weak.

  3. ezra

    June 6, 2017 at 2:19 am

    Hi
    I really enjoy your analysis as a newbie
    Anyways I’m holding onto a lot of ethereum for past few weeks I made a pretty good haul but it’s stagnant now.. getting a bit nervous – you don’t think it’s heading for a small correction to 200$? I don’t want to wipe out most of my gains. When do you think I should sell? Or you think I should hold for awhile?

    Thanks

  4. MSNP05

    June 6, 2017 at 7:31 am

    What about LTC ? My holdings are so high there

  5. [email protected]

    June 6, 2017 at 2:32 pm

    Thanks for an excellent analysis !

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dow Leapfrogs 23,000 as IBM Beats Estimates

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2560 0.13%
DAX 13043 0.35%
WTI Crude Oil 52.02 0.29%
GOLD 1284.00 -0.23%
Bitcoin 5435 -3.15%
EUR/USD 1.1793 0.23%

IBM surged higher today, as the company beat analysts’ expectations across the board, pushing the company’s shares up by more than 10% and helping the Industrial Average to a new all-time high yet again. The other major US indices kept on grinding higher as well for most of the day, despite the strong overvaluation, with the Volatility Index (VIX) still hovering around the 10 level. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged after a late-session sell-off, while small caps outperformed in the mixed environment.

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DOW 30 Index, Daily Chart Analysis

Global stocks also edged higher, with the Nikkei still leading the way, although the momentum of the move is still weak. The Yen’s weakness was the most apparent trend in currency markets, while the Pound rebounded well, despite the persistent Brexit worries, with the Dollar giving back some of its recent gains compared to its major peers. Gold also remained under pressure after retreating back below $1300 this week, while crude oil rallied on a bigger than expected, hurricane-related decline in US production.

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Gold 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins had a hectic and bearish session, especially in early trading, as Bitcoin’s overbought conditions coupled with Ripple’s sudden downturn led to a segment-wide decline. Ethereum continued to slip, as the Byzantium-related optimism faded away, but it remained well above the $285 level, and recovered above $300 towards the end of the session. NEO and IOTA still have a negative correlation with the rest of the market, as the two coins surged higher in early trading and gave back their gains during the late-day rebound.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX closed on a marginal new all-time high again, but the lengthy momentum divergence in the MACD indicator suggests that the steep uptrend continues to be in jeopardy. The low-volatility drift carried the benchmark above the 13,000 level, but a correction towards at least the 12,850 level is likely in the coming days, with another support level at 12,650 serving as a longer-term target. As the long-term uptrend is clearly intact, bears shouldn’t go all-in here but bulls should consider exiting their positions and wait until a correction to trade the long side again.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:30 EUROZONE Mario Draghi Speaks
3:30 UK Average Earnings 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
14:30 UK Claimant Count 1,700 3,200 -2,800
14:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
16:00 CANADA Manufacturing Sales 1.6% -0.1% -2.6%
14:30 US Building Permits 1.22 mill 1.25 mill 1.27 mill
16:00 US Housing Starts 1.13 mill 1.18 mill 1.18 mill
15:45 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.7 mill -4.7 mill -2.7 bill

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
2:30 AUSTRALIA Employment Change 15,200 54,200
2:30 AUSTRALIA Unemployment Rate 5.6% 5.6%
4:00 CHINA GDP 6.8% 6.9%
4:00 CHINA Industrial Production 6.4% 6.0%
10:30 UK Retail Sales -0.1% 1.0%
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 245,000 243,000
14:30 US Philly Fed Index 22.2 23.8
15:45 US Chicago PMI 58.6 58.9

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Dumps and Pumps amid Broad Volatile Correction

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The crypto segment has been in turmoil today, as the most valuable coins turned significantly lower, leading to a mini-panic, but they rallied strongly off their slows as buyers stepped in the second half of the session.

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Bitcoin fell as low as $5100, for a 15% correction top-to-bottom, but it is now trading near the prior short-term support at $5400. As the long-term picture remains overbought, investors shouldn’t open new positions here, but traders could play a likely move towards the $6000 level, although we still advise small sizes, as correction risks remain elevated.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The other majors were also declining in early trading, led by Ripple, with only NEO and IOTA, holding up well during the sell-off.  Both of the latter coins faded away as the rest of the market recovered, but Ripple continued to suffer. For now, the long-term bullish picture is unchanged for the segment, but BTC’s overbought correction could still cause volatility in the coming period. Let’s see the short-term charts after the busy session.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Rally Continues amid Fed Chair Confusion

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Tuesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2554 -0.09%
DAX 12995 -0.07%
WTI Crude Oil 51.53 -0.66%
GOLD 1287.00 -1.22%
Bitcoin 5652 -0.86%
EUR/USD 1.1751 -0.38%

Yesterday’s trends are mostly continued in financial markets, such as the low-volatility levitation in stocks and the slightly more active trading in currencies with the apparent Dollar strength. The Great British Pound continued to be under pressure amid the amplified Brexit-related worries, but most of the other majors also lost ground to the Greenback.

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The Dollar rally has been fueled by the rise in the odds of some of the hawkish Fed Chair candidates, while overall, the “race” for the positions looks more chaotic than ever. Interestingly, the long-end of the yield curve is refusing to follow the short-term moves, and without the effects of the Fed’s QE program, the yield curve would probably be inverted by now, signaling strong recession risks.

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major stock indices are virtually unchanged yet again and even the previously surging Nikkei entered a consolidation, adding to the unusual October lull. Commodities have been quite active thanks to the Dollar’s vigor, with crude oil and gold both turning lower. Oil gave back most of yesterday’s gains as the Iraqi-Kurdish conflict turned out to be less violent than previously feared, and the brief rally fizzled.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins are having a mixed session at best, as yesterday’s rebound wasn’t durable, and most of the coins turned back lower again. That said, despite the recent choppy price action, the total market cap of the segment is close to its all-time high, even as only Bitcoin is trading near its own record price level.

The optimism regarding Ethereum major Byzantium upgrade wasn’t enough to lift the second most valuable coin today, and the price of the ETH token retreated below the key $330 level after touching $350 yesterday after the upgrade’s lock-in. Ripple and NEO have been among the most active majors today, but with opposing performances, as Ripple fell significantly after yesterday’s break-out attempt, while NEO defied gravity and jumped above the $30 level after a corrective period.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The S&P 500 is grinding higher despite the overbought short-term momentum readings, and the benchmark is trading very close to its all-time high. The 2550 level is still in focus, but until volatility remains near record lows, the minuscule moves are unlikely to change the technical setup. While a sudden drop in prices could quickly negate the recent break-out, the consolidation could very well lead to further upside, as bulls remain firmly in control, despite the lofty valuation levels.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
02:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Meeting Minutes
10:30 UK CPI 3.00% 3.00% 2.90%
11:00 GERMANY ZEW Sentiment 17.6 20.3 17
12:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
15:15 US Industrial Production 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
15:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate 76.00% 76.20% 76.10%

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