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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Near All-Time High, Ripple, Ethereum, Monero, Stellar, Stratis

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The crypto-market trended broadly higher today, as the most valuable currency was boosting the segment, after a quiet and sideways weekend. Ethereum is unchanged after the break-out to new highs yesterday, as the $250 level is acting as resistance for now. XRP is still trading in a low-volatility range, hurting short-term traders, while preparing for the next major move.  The up and coming stars are in a consolidation with Stratis, Waves, DigiByte, and Siacoin all still trading below their recent highs against BTC.

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The total value of the market is creeping higher again, passing the $95 billion level, getting very close the historic $100 billion mark. With some interesting setups shaping up, trading activity is expected to increase during the week, providing plenty of trading opportunities both in the majors and the rising coins.

Bitcoin

BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin continued to drift higher during the weekend, and now it’s only 10% off its all-time high, now trading above the $2600 level.  BTC has been very resilient following the steep selloff ten days ago and that stabilized the altcoins as well. A re-test of the previous high seems likely in the coming days, and although a long-term double-top formation is not ruled out, a break-out to new highs could be in the works. Bitcoin is a hold now, but speculative long positions could be opened in anticipation of a break-out.

Ripple

XRP/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP is consolidating near the $28 level in the USD pair, while trending lower compared to the rallying BTC. XRP/USD is still on a buy signal since breaking-out from the two-week long consolidation pattern, but the current relative weakness compared to BTC points to more consolidation, so traders should wait for signs of strength before opening new positions.

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum hasn’t followed through on yesterday’s break-out against BTC, as it rebounded off the 0.10 level, but as of now, it’s still inside the advancing trend channel, and its right at its all-time high in Dollar terms, just below the $250 level.  The upside targets for the rally are around $280 and $300 but a move below $230 would warn of re-test of the $200 level.

ETH/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XMR is showing relative strength against BTC, and it might be ready to launch a rally towards the previous all-time highs at $58 on the Dollar pair in the coming days. With no significant resistance zones found above the $50 level, an advance above that would be a very bullish sign.

XMR/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stellar Lumens

STR/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stellar has been acting weak recently compared to BTC, and it remains in a downtrend. The coin has to hold above the 0.0000135 support, and traders should wait for a break-out from the short-term consolidation pattern on the STR/BTC chart before opening new positions in either the BTC or the Dollar pair.

Stratis

Stratis/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stratis continues to struggle with the resistance it hit over the weekend against BTC, and it broke below the rising short-term trend-line in the pair, which also warns of further correction. Short-term traders should still avoid the coin, with the 0.2875 level still providing a possible turning point for Stratis, should the correction continue.

Featured image by BTC Keychain

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 257 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. bitsurfer

    June 6, 2017 at 12:55 am

    Thanks Mate!

  2. Ershad

    June 6, 2017 at 12:56 am

    Hi Mate,

    Thanks for your article, I wanted to ask what are you thoughts regarding Steem?

    Kind regards,
    Ershad

    • Ershad

      June 6, 2017 at 12:57 am

      Also Mate, what is the target for XRP?

      Kind regards,
      Ershad

      • Mate Cser

        June 6, 2017 at 1:07 am

        Hi Ershad,

        Steem is on the watchlist, stay tuned for a trade recommendation! If you have are holding, it’s still looking good, I wouldn’t sell here.

      • Mate Cser

        June 6, 2017 at 1:10 am

        If it breaks out from the current pattern, my initial target would be around the prior high on the Dollar pair, near 0.42. For now, XRP looks suspiciously weak.

  3. ezra

    June 6, 2017 at 2:19 am

    Hi
    I really enjoy your analysis as a newbie
    Anyways I’m holding onto a lot of ethereum for past few weeks I made a pretty good haul but it’s stagnant now.. getting a bit nervous – you don’t think it’s heading for a small correction to 200$? I don’t want to wipe out most of my gains. When do you think I should sell? Or you think I should hold for awhile?

    Thanks

  4. MSNP05

    June 6, 2017 at 7:31 am

    What about LTC ? My holdings are so high there

  5. nahom.bereketeab@gmail.com

    June 6, 2017 at 2:32 pm

    Thanks for an excellent analysis !

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Correction Deepens but Leaders Remain Stable

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As the major cryptocurrencies got hit hard this week, losing around 20% on average, the long-term picture in the segment got close to an entry point for investors. The overbought readings that developed during the late-April rally are now cleared and although the short-term trends are still clearly negative, we still expect the coins to resume the recovery. With that in mind, long-term investors could start accumulating the relatively stronger coins.

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On a negative note, even the leaders violated key support levels during this week’s selloff, but the secular long-term trends are not yet in danger. The prior leaders Ethereum, EOS, and IOTA are still in the center of attention, as we expect them to form a bottom soon. Bitcoin and the other relatively weak coins, like Litecoin, Monero, Dash, and NEO are still lagging the form a technical perspective, but they are also well above the support levels that would indicate an end of the secular bull market.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin is below the key $7650-$7800 support level and it remains the biggest drag on the market, despite a brief period of relative strength this week. The upper boundary of the base pattern that we identified in April is found near $6150, with a weaker zone around $6500, and with the short-term trend clearly being negative, the latter might be tested before a bottom forms. Further resistance is ahead at $8400, $8700, and between $9000 and $9200, and traders and investors still shouldn’t enter positions here.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum is testing the $555-$575 support zone after violating the $625-$645 range, with the declining short-term pattern being intact. A bottom near the $500 would still keep the recovery intact, but the correction low might already be in, and investors could already add to their holdings here. Further resistance zones are ahead between $735 and $780 and near $845, while support is found near $450.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 257 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Pre-Market: Oil Plunges Below $70 as Markets Mixed Before Long Weekend

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Financial markets are relatively calm today, despite the hectic week that was highlighted by the Turkish currency crisis, wild swings in bonds, and a step back in US-North Korean relations. Stock markets turned lower globally, with US equities outperforming the rest of the world, essentially drifting sideways all week long, thanks to the slight correction in the Dollar’s rally, and the dip in Treasury yields that was triggered by the dovish Fed meeting minutes.

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S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Today, the durable goods report came out before the opening bell and although the headline number was a tad worse than expected the more important core figure beat the consensus estimate, helping the slightly dampening economic outlook, even as yields continue to fall, especially with regards to long-dated Treasuries.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although emerging market currencies are way less volatile today than recently, despite the rebound in the Dollar, equities shed their early gains and are now slightly in the red. The all-important EUR/USD pair hitting yet another 6-month low near 1.1650, and the test of the key long-term 1.1450-1.15 zone looks more and more likely in the coming weeks, even as the pair is a bit oversold.

Energy Markets in Turmoil as OPEC Signals Production Increase Again

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

It seems that the crude oil market is in for a strategic switch yet again, as the OPEC, together with Russia made it clear today that the price of the Black Gold finally reached a desirable level. The cartel will be targeting a higher level of output later on this year in order to keep the US shale players under pressure by capping the advance in the key commodity’s market.

The WTI contract reached a 4-year high at $72 per barrel recently and the Brent contract which is more exposed to Middle East woes rose as high as $80 per barrel after trading below the $30 level just two years ago. The last phase of the advance extended above the level where a large portion of the shale plays turn profitable, and as global growth worries also surfaced, the commodity entered a selloff this week.

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Safe haven assets continue to be bid despite the relatively calm environment, and gold hit a two-week high today despite the bounce in the Greenback as buyers are back after the wash-out plunge below $1300. With the long-term setup and fundamentals still being favorable for the precious metal, the short-term downtrend line is in danger here.

As US markets will be closed on Monday, which usually favors an active session, volatility might remain high throughout the day.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 257 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Recommendations

Trade Recommendation: Intact Financial

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Technical Overview

  • Since double-bottoming in 2008 and 2009 at $26 (violet horizontal trendline in Figure 1), Intact Financial (IFC.TO) has enjoyed a four-fold increase. During the 2013, 2016 and 2018 corrections, the stock found support at a long-term trendline (support – green trendline; retests – green arrows).

Figure 1. IFC.TO Weekly Chart

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  • Zooming in, after topping in November’17, IFC completed a H&S pattern (tops – yellow ellipses, neckline – yellow trendline in Figure 2).
  • In January, March, April, and May, all up-moves halted at a well-defined short-term resistance (red trendline). Yesterday (May 25), the stock managed to break and close above the resistance.
  • Today, the stock closed in positive territory, whereas the Financial sector (TTFS.TO) declined by over 0.5%.
  • The $95 level had served as support on multiple occasions in 2018 (purple horizontal trendline and arrows).

Figure 2. IFC.TO Daily Chart

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Implications

  • The bounce off of the long-term support and the break above the short-term resistance are considered constructive.
  • The stock is expected to find support in the $95 – $96.50 range during pullbacks (i.e. at the red and purple trendlines).
  • The downward target from the H&S pattern was nearly met during the May decline (target – $92.25 – white vertical trendline in Figure 2, May 9 low – $92.65 – last purple arrow).

Outlook

  • Short-term bullish as long as the stock remains above $95
  • Long-term bullish as long as the stock remains above its long-term support (green trendline in Figure 1).

 Trade Recommendation

  • Buy the stock at current levels ($97.50 at EOD on May 24).
  • Target: Half at $101 (the January low which served as resistance in March – second red arrow). Other half at $108 (origin of the late 2017 decline).
  • Stop: Half upon a close below $95. Other half upon a close below the long-term support (currently at approximately $93.50).

Disclosure: No position yet but may initiate at any time. Will likely recommend the stock to my clients as a potential play within the financial sector.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.8 stars on average, based on 12 rated postsPublished author of technical research. In his work on price “gaps”, published in the 2018 International Federation of Technical Analysts’ Annual Journal, he developed a new technical tool for analyzing and trading the “gap” phenomenon – the “K-Divergence” (http://ifta.org/public/files/journal/d_ifta_journal_18). Besides obtaining a Master in Financial Technical Analysis, he has completed a BBA and an MBA from the Schulich School of Business in Toronto and has completed all exams for the CFA, CMT and CFTe designations. Currently, providing research to investment management and financial advisory firms. http://www.linkedin.com/in/konstantindimov




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