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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Dash, ETC

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Stratis and Bytecoin are the two most active coins today being up by close to 50%, while Ethereum, Bitcoin are doing nothing, probably frustrating a lot of traders who are waiting for the next big move. That said, things are looking much better than one week ago, when the “Friday-Curse” struck again, and all the major coins dropped sharply. Ripple has pulled back after yesterday’s run, but the XRP token still looks interesting in the short run. We could be in for a less busy weekend, and again, Monday will be a holiday in a lot of countries so volumes might remain lower than usual. Let’s see how the charts are shaping up!

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Ethereum

ETH respected the trend-line resistance in the ETH/BTC pair, and it’s drifting lower towards the strong resistance zone between 0.08 and 0.085. A possible entry point is developing near the confluence of the rising trend-line and the 0.085 level. Below 0.008, the 0.064 level might come into play, but that scenario is less likely, given the strong uptrend.  The MACD indicator is still retreating from overbought territory, but the long-term trend is not in danger as of now.

Bitcoin

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Bitcoin got a lift from the positive news coming out from China which might mean that the country will finally be taking steps in the right direction, opening up a new pool of buyers for the segment.  BTC remains on a buy signal above the $2350 level, but caution is still advised following the epic run-up of the recent months, and should Bitcoin fall below that support level, the rising trend-line could be in danger. Long-term investors should definitely hold their core positions, and add to it if another round of the correction comes.

Ripple

 

XRP is holding on to its break-out gains although the upside momentum stalled today and the token remains below its recent highs. Short-term support is at 0.265 with the very with a crucial zone just below that, around the 0.24 level. The MACD indicator is still somewhat bullish, but short-term traders should be aware of a break below the 0.265 line.

Litecoin

Litecoin is in a holding pattern right at the 27.50 level, and the rising short-term trend that originated off the bottom of the deep correction is in danger. The chart looks fragile, and without breaking above at least the 30 resistance level, LTC should be avoided, although the long-term prospects are clearly positive. Investors should be looking for levels to add to their core positions in the case of further correction.

Dash

Dash is in a similar pattern as LTC following the strong bounce off the lows, as the short-term holding pattern is converging with the rising short-term trend-line. Short-term traders should avoid Dash right now IMHO, while long-term investors should be ready to by more if the coin enters the next phase of the correction. That said, a move above the current short-term pattern could trigger a new buy signal.

Ethereum Classic

ETC has experienced the lowest volatility among the majors lately, trading in a triangle pattern for the past few days. While the long-term picture is still among the most bullish on the coin market I expect a re-test of the support zone near 14, before another sustained move higher. The current sideways price action is very tricky, so short-term traders should wait for more momentum before jumping in, while long-term the coin remains a hold.

Featured image from Pixabay

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 107 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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9 Comments

9 Comments

  1. aclinch14

    June 2, 2017 at 8:46 pm

    Mate,

    Could we get crypto recommendations? Layman terms of “buy or sell” or other such things.

    I enjoy reading the charts, trends, etc., but it’s nice to be able to read a simple statement or a TLDR.

    Thanks!

    • Mate Cser

      June 2, 2017 at 8:51 pm

      Sure, from now on my recommendations will include cryptocurrencies as well, with continously updated targets and stop-losses. As soon as a clear setup emerges, we will post a flash update! Thanks for the feedback!

      • aclinch14

        June 2, 2017 at 8:57 pm

        That would be amazing! Thanks for listening to your readers requests. That means a lot.

  2. embersburnbrightly

    June 2, 2017 at 10:05 pm

    I really appreciate you giving recommendations for both short-term trades and long-term investments. Articles like this one are one of the prime reasons that I am really enjoying being a new subscriber! Thanks much!

  3. shyam_shankar

    June 3, 2017 at 6:25 am

    Thanks for your analysis on ETH on Polo, I request you to take a opinion with your subscribed members which exchange they are using the most and I guess polo. I will be much obliged if you update your all charts to BTC/ ETH,DASH,LTC,XRP on poloniex.

  4. smumo

    June 3, 2017 at 7:08 am

    What price do ypu think etherrum classic will hit in two months?Thank you.

  5. SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

    June 3, 2017 at 3:25 pm

    On Ethernet classic you mention:
    “”the long-term picture is still among the most bullish on the coin market “”
    My question is:
    How high do you think it may Trade in the coming weeks or months?

    • Mate Cser

      June 3, 2017 at 4:09 pm

      Hello,

      I expect $28-$30 to be reached with 0.010-0.012 on the BTC pair in the coming two months, with lots of volatility.

  6. SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

    June 3, 2017 at 4:24 pm

    Thank You Very Much for your response. That gives me a better perspective on what to buy.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: The Usual Post-Fed Pump and Dump…

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2700 -0.51%
DAX 12,470 -0.14%
WTI Crude Oil 61.28 -0.83%
GOLD 1325.00 -0.43%
Bitcoin 10480 -8.71%
EUR/USD 1.2336 0.61%

The script that we laid out for the FOMC meeting minutes has worked almost perfectly, with the major US indices completing a roundtrip that triggered most of the “weak” stop-losses, before a powerful move lower into the close.

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The predictable late-session intraday volatility aside, markets were quiet and choppy for most of the day, and the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500, all closed just slightly lower, while covering 2% during the session, with the tech-index’s relative strength evaporating in late trading.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Forex Markets and Commodities

What drove the decline in equities was the renewed rise in US Treasury Yields, and to answer the most important question of the day; yes, in fact, the yield-Dollar correlation of the past few months broke down, and today the Greenback rallied together with bond yields.

10-Year Treasury Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While that is how it should work according to common sense and economic theory, the recent inverse correlation helped a lot of trends in reaching extremes, and those extremes now might reverse.

The outperformance of US markets, the Euro strength, and the weakness in European equities were among those trends, and it’s interesting to see that the bullish technical setup in the EUR/USD is crumbling and the US indices are in the deepest correction since the Brexit.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While there is no assurance that these changes are permanent, for now, we remain short-term bearish on US equities, and continue to look for upside in the battered Dollar.

At the end of the day, the Dollar finished higher against all of the major fiat currencies, although the Yen showed notable relative strength amid the stock rampage near the closing bell. Interestingly the USD vs. risk-on pairs trend continues to lead the other asset classes, as we have noted several times, and that could be something to monitor in the coming days and weeks.

Commodities had a mixed but ultimately bearish session, with oil and gold suffering both suffering losses amid the risk-off shift, although crude already traded lower before the FOMC release, while gold traded in close correlation with the Euro throughout the day.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment had a decisively bearish session, with only a few coins showing considerable relative strength amid the sell-off. Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dash, and Monero are still the leaders of this cycle, while Ethereum is the most notable laggard, pulling most altcoins lower as well.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a positive note, the majors held up relatively well amid the stock turmoil, but the next few days will be crucial, as important support levels could be tested. That said, most of the coins are well clear of the crash lows, and there is more than enough support below that, combined with the still present bullish signs should keep investors confident that a new uptrend is underway and new rally highs are ahead.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 107 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Altcoins Lead Markets Lower as Bitcoin Still Looks Strong

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All of the largest digital currencies are in the red today, following heavy overnight selling, a bounce in European trading, and another round of losses around the US market open. Ethereum is still in the worst short-term shape among the giants of the segment, and that’s in line with the slightly delayed cycle of the coin that we have been monitoring.

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The technical divergence between the leaders of the market and the laggards yesterday is still dominant with the 6 coins that spearhead the rally, BTC, LTC, NEO, Dash, Monero, and ETC, are still in much more bullish setups than the rest of the majors.

Bitcoin is also well below its recent rally highs after breaking down under the key $11,300 level, and a test of the $10,000 support now looks likely, while a move to the $9000-$9200 zone would still keep the rising trend intact.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The overbought short-term momentum readings are being cleared, and despite the slightly bearish volume patterns, we expect the coin to continue its new bullish cycle after the correction, with targets above $11,300 ahead at $13,000 and $14,250.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is now trading below the key $845 level as the correction continues, as we expected, and the coin remains stuck in the dominant declining trend, for now. We still expect a breakout in the coming weeks, but a test of the $740 level is possible before another rally. Further support below that is at $625 and $575 and we don’t expect a new low in the coin, so investors could still accumulate the coin near the main levels.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 107 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Pre-Market: All Eyes on the FED and the Dollar (Again)

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FED-Days usually bring very special sessions with a choppy illiquid environment before the “big announcement”, an almost usual stop hunting spike in both directions right after the release, and a rather random, but strong trend in the close that usually defines trading for the next days.

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For this reason, a lot of traders like to take the day off until the FED-decision, and only trade after the event. Why are we talking about this today? Because although there is no interest rate decision this month, the meeting minutes of last month will be published this evening, and what moves the market in this period is rate expectations, not actual decisions.

And by the market, we mean basically all traditional asset classes, and through the rising trend in yields and the consequences of that, rate expectations arguably affect the cryptocurrency segment as well. So what do we expect from the FED? Nothing. We will leave that to the rest of the players, and trade upon the reaction of the market; after all that is what counts. At the end of the day, central banks will try to prop up the market, we can take that for granted.

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S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The overnight session in stock futures was in line with the above-mentioned expectations for a quasi-Fed day, with no clear trend in Asia or Europe, and very choppy price action across the board. Yesterday’s late-session decline is still weighing on investors sentiment, but there are clearly positive signs as well, even as we remain bearish for the coming weeks.

The key levels to watch are still the same, the 2735 and 2700 levels in the S&P 500 (25350 and 24800 in the Dow), and the Nasdaq could remain crucial to keep the hopes of bulls up, should it retain its relative strength.

Dollar-Yield Correlation Switch?

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currency traders might have noticed a subtle shift between US Treasury Yields and the Dollar since the Volatility-Armageddon (actually a bit later than that). In the “old regime” the rise in yields was through the changes in rate-expectations was actually hurting the value of the Dollar, while lately, that negative correlation disappeared and even reversed briefly.

Why is that so important? Because the previous correlation helped the rally in US equities as yields rose, while the new regime could mean that European and Asian stocks will finally gather relative strength, should yields continue to rise. Tonight we might get closer to the solution of this puzzle, as the reaction to the FED-minutes will show how correlations are shaping up now.

Currencies and commodities are also little changed today, although the Dollar continued to edge higher overnight, while enduring a small sell-off as we approached the US open, despite the largely negative European PMI indices.

So watch the Dollar, the Nasdaq, and most of all Treasury Yields today in late trading, and expect choppy conditions until the very end of the US session.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 107 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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