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Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Dash, ETC

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Stratis and Bytecoin are the two most active coins today being up by close to 50%, while Ethereum, Bitcoin are doing nothing, probably frustrating a lot of traders who are waiting for the next big move. That said, things are looking much better than one week ago, when the “Friday-Curse” struck again, and all the major coins dropped sharply. Ripple has pulled back after yesterday’s run, but the XRP token still looks interesting in the short run. We could be in for a less busy weekend, and again, Monday will be a holiday in a lot of countries so volumes might remain lower than usual. Let’s see how the charts are shaping up!

Ethereum

ETH respected the trend-line resistance in the ETH/BTC pair, and it’s drifting lower towards the strong resistance zone between 0.08 and 0.085. A possible entry point is developing near the confluence of the rising trend-line and the 0.085 level. Below 0.008, the 0.064 level might come into play, but that scenario is less likely, given the strong uptrend.  The MACD indicator is still retreating from overbought territory, but the long-term trend is not in danger as of now.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin got a lift from the positive news coming out from China which might mean that the country will finally be taking steps in the right direction, opening up a new pool of buyers for the segment.  BTC remains on a buy signal above the $2350 level, but caution is still advised following the epic run-up of the recent months, and should Bitcoin fall below that support level, the rising trend-line could be in danger. Long-term investors should definitely hold their core positions, and add to it if another round of the correction comes.

Ripple

 

XRP is holding on to its break-out gains although the upside momentum stalled today and the token remains below its recent highs. Short-term support is at 0.265 with the very with a crucial zone just below that, around the 0.24 level. The MACD indicator is still somewhat bullish, but short-term traders should be aware of a break below the 0.265 line.

Litecoin

Litecoin is in a holding pattern right at the 27.50 level, and the rising short-term trend that originated off the bottom of the deep correction is in danger. The chart looks fragile, and without breaking above at least the 30 resistance level, LTC should be avoided, although the long-term prospects are clearly positive. Investors should be looking for levels to add to their core positions in the case of further correction.

Dash

Dash is in a similar pattern as LTC following the strong bounce off the lows, as the short-term holding pattern is converging with the rising short-term trend-line. Short-term traders should avoid Dash right now IMHO, while long-term investors should be ready to by more if the coin enters the next phase of the correction. That said, a move above the current short-term pattern could trigger a new buy signal.

Ethereum Classic

ETC has experienced the lowest volatility among the majors lately, trading in a triangle pattern for the past few days. While the long-term picture is still among the most bullish on the coin market I expect a re-test of the support zone near 14, before another sustained move higher. The current sideways price action is very tricky, so short-term traders should wait for more momentum before jumping in, while long-term the coin remains a hold.

Featured image from Pixabay

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 378 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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9 Comments

9 Comments

  1. aclinch14

    June 2, 2017 at 8:46 pm

    Mate,

    Could we get crypto recommendations? Layman terms of “buy or sell” or other such things.

    I enjoy reading the charts, trends, etc., but it’s nice to be able to read a simple statement or a TLDR.

    Thanks!

    • Mate Cser

      June 2, 2017 at 8:51 pm

      Sure, from now on my recommendations will include cryptocurrencies as well, with continously updated targets and stop-losses. As soon as a clear setup emerges, we will post a flash update! Thanks for the feedback!

      • aclinch14

        June 2, 2017 at 8:57 pm

        That would be amazing! Thanks for listening to your readers requests. That means a lot.

  2. embersburnbrightly

    June 2, 2017 at 10:05 pm

    I really appreciate you giving recommendations for both short-term trades and long-term investments. Articles like this one are one of the prime reasons that I am really enjoying being a new subscriber! Thanks much!

  3. shyam_shankar

    June 3, 2017 at 6:25 am

    Thanks for your analysis on ETH on Polo, I request you to take a opinion with your subscribed members which exchange they are using the most and I guess polo. I will be much obliged if you update your all charts to BTC/ ETH,DASH,LTC,XRP on poloniex.

  4. smumo

    June 3, 2017 at 7:08 am

    What price do ypu think etherrum classic will hit in two months?Thank you.

  5. SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

    June 3, 2017 at 3:25 pm

    On Ethernet classic you mention:
    “”the long-term picture is still among the most bullish on the coin market “”
    My question is:
    How high do you think it may Trade in the coming weeks or months?

    • Mate Cser

      June 3, 2017 at 4:09 pm

      Hello,

      I expect $28-$30 to be reached with 0.010-0.012 on the BTC pair in the coming two months, with lots of volatility.

  6. SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

    June 3, 2017 at 4:24 pm

    Thank You Very Much for your response. That gives me a better perspective on what to buy.

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Analysis

Hawkish Fed Lifts Yields, Dollar as Stock-Correction Continues

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US stock markets had a choppy and mixed session, and the major indices closed the day virtually unchanged, despite the early losses and the negative news flow. The US housing market disappointed again, the EU-Italy debate over the country’s budget continued, the US-Chinese relations further deteriorated, and the Fed also provided a negative catalyst towards the end of the day.

Dow 30 Index Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Investors were eagerly waiting for the meeting minute form the Fed’s latest meeting, but those expecting a dovish surprise were let down. The transcript contained more hints to tighter-than-expected monetary policies in the coming months and years, but still after an initial dip stocks rebounded to pre-announcement levels.

US 2-Year Treasury Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While especially shorter-dated yields rallied after the release, we would add that although there were voices that the Fed should exceed the “neutral” interest rate to cool the economy in the future, those voices will likely be muted by any major correction in financial markets or even a moderate slowdown in the economy.

Russell 2000, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stocks weathered the rise in yields so far, but after-hours, futures markets are drifting lower, and should yields resume their recent swift advance, another wave of selling could hit risk assets. With a lot of stocks and benchmarks still clearly in oversold territory concerning the short-term momentum indicators, the choppy correction could also continue, but we remain defensive towards global stocks, and we expect the risk-off period to continue in the coming weeks.

Dollar Extends Early Gains as WTI Crude Dips Below $70

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the Dollar was already up in early trading against most of its major peers, it got a strong boost from the meeting minutes, with the Dollar Index climbing above the key support/resistance level near 95.50, establishing a swing low.

Barring a quick reversal, the Greenback headed for another important leg higher, and all eyes will be on the 1.15 level in the EUR/USD pair, as an extended move below that could open up the way for a strong momentum move in the USD. On a positive note, the most vulnerable emerging market currencies continue to perform well, in contrast with equities in the segment, and that could give some stability to risk-on currencies in the face of the broadly negative technicals

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities mostly finished the day with losses amid the rally in the Dollar, but while gold still only gave back a small part of its recent gains, oil plunged to a new almost one-month low, at least as measured by the WTI contract.

The Brent contract continues to outperform despite the easing of the US-Saudi tensions, but overall the risk-off shift in global markets is clearly hurting oil.  Copper is still stuck in a volatility compression pattern, but given the lengthy consolidation, a significant move is expected in the coming days by the industrial metal.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 378 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Why Would Anyone Have Faith In Tether?

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I don’t want to get sued for slander so let me explain the reasoning beyond today’s title. After all of the turmoil surrounding Tether on Monday, how can the price be anywhere near the $1 parity level with the US dollar?  After more than a year, how can anyone have confidence in Tether and their common law partners Bitfinex when, for example, Circle, backed be the highly respected Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs offers an alternative?  We should also mention that Circle is just one of many so called stable coins.

It isn’t hard to find a list. Exchanges are feverishly adding stable coins. Singapore based Houbi is adding Paxos Standard Token (PAX), True USD (TUSD), Circle (USDC) and Gemini (GUSD).  

When Stable Coins Cause Instability

Well, the evidence is mounting as the months move along that so called stable coins can have the power of creating anything but stability.  This week’s experience with Tether, Bitfinex and the price explosion of Bitcoin demonstrates that there are still dangers lurking. This is why trust is important.

Monday’s gyrations were not the first questionable moment for Tether.  The coin, which gains its intended stability by being tied on a one for one basis with the US dollar, has been the subject of questionable behavior all year.  

As far back as January trade sources were expressing concern the Tether was responsible for last December’s major price bubble in Bitcoin.  The frenzy over Bitcoin set off speculation across the entire crypto spectrum. But that was just the beginning.

In June Bloomberg reported on a paper by John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas, that among other things claimed 60% of last year’s price move in Bitcoin was the result of manipulation surrounding Bitfinex. That directly implicates Tether.

Using algorithms to analyze the blockchain data, Griffin’s team found that purchases with Tether were timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in Bitcoin prices. Less than 1% of hours with such heavy Tether transactions are associated with 50% of the meteoric rise in Bitcoin and 64% of other top cryptocurrencies.

These findings prompted the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to step in with a series of subpoenas.

Tether’s coins had become a popular substitute for dollars on cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide, and for good reason. They are anonymous, closely tied to the value of the US dollar and can be used in exchange for Bitcoin, Ether or about 10 other cryptocurrencies.  Tether is closely associated with Bitfinex, with whom they share common shareholders and management.

Bitfinex has offices in Hong Kong but it is legally headquartered in the British Virgin Islands. In May they announced plans to move to Zug, Switzerland. Bitfinex has a sorted history of poor security, having lost nearly $100 million worth of Bitcoin from customer accounts. Moreover, while claiming to have total one for one US dollar backing for each Tether, real proof is absent.  

Further Evidence of Manipulation

Over the course of this year, as we have gathered digitally to witness the loss of nearly $600 billion in crypto value, everyone has been looking for the culprit. When I first read of some of the academic studies that blamed the advent of futures trading on the CBOE, I laughed. Honestly, I believed the real cause of the rise and fall of crypto were a well connected group of billionaires that together had the power to move markets.  

Well the folks at Chainalysis have just produced some surprising research results. Their Blockchain Intelligence Platform powers investigation software for some of  the world’s top institutions. These guys don’t do surveys, the have their hands on big data that is able to detect some interesting stuff.

Chainalysis released a new report last week showing that the so called Bitcoin whales are not responsible for price volatility. The study examined the 32 largest BTC wallets, which reportedly represent 1 million BTC, or around $6.3 billion. That is a pretty solid sample size.

The data revealed that the BTC whales are do not act in concert with one another. In fact not only are they a diverse group but about two thirds behave like longer term investors. Instead of being FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) types, on net they have traded against the heard buying on price weakness.

Putting The Pieces Together

The crypto world is bombarded with globally generated news on an hourly basis. But what does all of it mean anyway? Hopefully this article adds some perspective on what and who has been responsible for the direction of crypto prices over the past year.  As more of these weak players are identified and depleted of their business, real investors will have the confidence to return to the market.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 113 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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EOS Price Forecast: EOS/USD Heading for Another 300% Move?

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  • EOS/USD price action via the 4-hour chart view has formed a bullish flag pattern.
  • The price is moving around levels seen back end of March to early April, before a bull run of over 300%.

The past six sessions for EOS/USD have been erratic to say the least. It has been subject to a high amount of volatility, swinging aggressively in both directions. There has been a lack of commitment from either the bear or bull camps of late. As the market continues to trade with such behavior, it appears to be trying to find its feet, ahead of a potential chunky firm trend.

EOS DApp Hacked Again

An EOS based gambling DApp, EOSBet has been hacked, with $338,000 being reported as stolen. This isn’t the first time; just back in September, hackers managed to get away with a reported 40,000 worth of EOS, which at the time had a value of $200,000. It has been said that they were able to exploit their smart contracts, having found security vulnerabilities.

Technical Review – 4-hour Chart View

EOS/USD 4-hour chart

EOS/USD price action has formed a bullish flag pattern, which began taking shape on 15th October, after the aggressive price behavior stabilized. The bulls at the time ran the price well up into $6 territory. Consequently, it then met the breached ascending trend line, failing to move back above this area. This followed the sharp breakthrough to the downside, which occurred on 11th October. As a result, a drop of over 15% was seen, forcing EOS/USD to retreat in a demand area, within the $5.0000 level proximity.

Looking to the upside, small near-term resistance is seen at around $5.6100, which is the upper trend line of the mentioned bull flag pattern. A breakout will likely open the doors to a retest of the broken ascending trend line, tracking around $6.1100. Support can be eyed at $5.4600, which marks the lower trend line of the flag. Furthermore, should this fail to hold, EOS/USD could likely fall back down to the serving demand area, within the lower $5.0000 territory.

April 2018 Bull Run

EOS/USD April bull run

In April of this year EOS/USD entered a chunky bull run, gaining over 300%. From the back end of March until 11th April, the price had been stuck within consolidation mode. Resulting in the price trading within a tight range, at levels of where the price is currently seen today.

Something quite astonishing started to unfold. Between the period of 11th April to the 29th April, a bull run of around 290% was seen. Over this time frame EOS/USD went from $5.9500 up to a high of around $23.0811. The price is currently demonstrating a similar behavior to that of what was seen during the mentioned period. It is interesting to note that the price did have historical levels to break through, as it had already run higher during the period of December 2017 and came back down. Finally, this is not to say EOS/USD will observe the same bull run. However, it is an interesting observation to be aware of.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 30 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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