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Analysis

Cryptocurrencies Mixed as Litecoin Hits Highs and Nears Targets

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The major coins dipped lower after a promising start on Tuesday, as momentum remained weak in the low volume environment. Litecoin hit a new high in early trading, while NEM and Dash were also relatively strong, with Ethereum still being stuck below $300 and Bitcoin trading near the $2600 level throughout the week. Today’s session might be a crucial one after the 4-day low volume period, and the next significant move could define the sentiment of the week, while also turning the tide on the long-term charts.

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Bitcoin

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is trading in a very narrow range near $2600, as volatility declined considerably during the weekend, while correlations broke down between the two majors and the rest of the coins, signaling the end of the liquidation period. That said, the declining short-term trendline is still close to the current rate, and the most valuable cryptocurrency might be in for more sideways price action, before the Judgement Day of BTC in August.

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Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum has been acting week throughout the weekend and the Independence day holiday, and the coin is still trading below the $275 level and the declining short-term trendline, while several of the smaller coins are already in short-term uptrends. The currency remains in a neutral short-term trend above the $250 level, while a dip below that support could open up the way to $230 or a re-test o the lows near $200.

ETH/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is still hitting new highs, reaching the $55 level overnight and getting close to our range-projection target near $58. The coin remains well inside the rising long-term trend, but we suggest to reduce their long positions near the $58-60 zone, as a more pronounced consolidation phase could follow the 90% rally since the break-out at $32. The MACD indicator is getting close to oversold territory, also favoring caution, and opening new positions at this level is not advised.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is still looking bullish although yesterday’s rally halted near the primary resistance at $190 once again. The prior highs at $200 could be tested in the coming days, and a break-out to new highs is likely, with target levels at $217 and just above the $250 level. A break below $160, on the other hand, would signal a bearish change in the short-term trend, with further strong support near $150 and below that at $140.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple remains inside the dominant trading ranges, showing some relative strength compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum this morning. The long-term setups are unchanged in both the BTC and the USD pairs, and we still advise short-term traders to wait for a move before taking on new positions, while long-term investor could still accumulate XRP inside the consolidation patterns.

XRP/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETC has gone through a volatility compression during the weekend and the July 4th period, with very small movements in the recent days, hovering around the $17.50 level. The declining short-term trendline is still intact and before a move above that, the coin remains neutral, while a dip below the $16 support would be a bearish turn and could signal the re-test of the $14.50 zone.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero has been trading similarly to ETC in the last few days, being stuck below the short-term declining trendline and a volatility compression pattern following the strong moves of the last week. A move above the trendline resistance at $47.50 would trigger a new buy signal, and a possible test of the $58 high, with the short-term picture still being neutral.

NEM

NEM/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEM surged back to its long-term base formation yesterday but the rally halted near the declining trend line once again, and although the weekend move is encouraging, the short-term picture is neutral. A move above the 0.000075 level would provide a new buy signal after the long correction period.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Winklevoss

    July 5, 2017 at 9:58 am

    Typo ‘Ether below $3000’.

    • Edward Talliot

      July 5, 2017 at 11:58 am

      Thank you. Fixed!

  2. Carl

    July 5, 2017 at 3:47 pm

    Thoughts on ETC as a good long term hold?

    • Mate Cser

      July 5, 2017 at 3:52 pm

      Hello Carl, yes it is in my long-term portfolio, although with relatively small weight.

      • Carl

        July 5, 2017 at 3:54 pm

        Awesome… same here! thanks for the feedback 🙂

  3. [email protected]

    July 5, 2017 at 6:06 pm

    Hi Mate, you recommend selling LTC around 58 then we can buy back at lower later? What should be the buy back price you can recommend?

    • Mate Cser

      July 6, 2017 at 7:16 am

      Hi, yes, I believe that the coin will revisit $50 a couple of times before moving higher.

  4. Sangerwal

    July 10, 2017 at 2:45 am

    Hi
    Any recommendations on Ethereum and litecoin ? short term and long term?

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Oil Extends Rally as Nasdaq Leads Stocks Higher

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Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2749 1.38%
DAX 12,483 0.18%
WTI Crude Oil 63.58 1.29%
GOLD 1330.00 -0.16%
Bitcoin 10,14 -0.09%
EUR/USD 1.2295 -0.28%

US equities built up some bullish momentum towards the end of the week, ignoring the technical damage that the volatility-crash caused, and the major US indices rallied into the close today, squeezing the shorts. The Nasdaq, which led the rally as we expected, took out the key 6850 level in late trading and added another percent to, incredibly enough, finish only a hundred point of the all-time high.

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NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Should the tech benchmark retest the high next week, it will be amid very strong negative divergences, but hey, those divergences have been building for months now. The rally in equities was boosted by the dip in Treasury yields, especially at the long end of the curve, while Amazon continued ot lead the charge, closing right at the historic $1500 per share level.

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Russell 2000 (Small Cap) Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The advance in the Dow and the S&P 500 is much less convincing and with small caps also lagging the tech-behemoth juggernaut, we remain skeptical regarding the sustainability of the move. That said, if the broader indices stay above the key levels, we will be trading the long side in equities, even as from an investment standpoint, valuations are still way above acceptable.

Forex Markets and Commodities

The lackluster performance of European and Asian stocks adds to the negative divergences, especially as the Euro stopped appreciating against the Greenback, and that should be helping stocks of the old continent. Of course, the DAX and the EuroStoxx 50 could play catch-up next week, barring another surge in the common currency.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The most-traded forex pair remains in a short-term downtrend, as it failed to recapture the previously broken rising trendline, and the commodity related risk-on currencies also remained under pressure. The Canadian Dollar did bounce back off yesterday’s 8-week lows, boosted by the much hihger than expected inflation release and the jump in the price of crude oil.

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Oil benefited from the positive shift in sentiment, while the Syrian situation, which took a backseat in the headlines, still supports the rally. The Japanese Yen and gold were stable amid the risk-rally and that adds to our suspicions regarding the upside potential form these levels.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment started out the day with a strong bounce that carried the major coins higher by around 10%, but given the recent steep short-term pullback, even that wasn’t enough to turn the tide, and the day ended with an (almost usual) sell-off after the US close. Despite the recent volatility, the overall picture is still encouraging, with most of the majors being safely above the crash lows, likely in a new bullish cycle that has the potential to last for several more weeks or even months.

While new all-time highs are it guaranteed following the 60-70% declines among the largest coins, but even without those, plenty of upside potential is left for investors. With that in mind, investors should hold on to their coins and even add to their holdings on the short-term dips like the current one.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Majors Stage Rally but Strong Levels Still Ahead

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The cryptocurrency segment has recovered from a broad correction today in early trading, with the most valuable coins all turning into green during the session, despite the bearish start to the overnight session. With bottom-to-top gains of up to 15%, the rally helped in easing the worries of bulls, especially in the case of the relatively weaker coins.

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Bitcoin and most of the largest altcoins remained stable during the selloff, and BTC recaptured the $10,000 level quickly after trading as low as $9600 overnight. The initial rally topped out near $10,400, and the coin is trading back near the $10,000 level, as the bullish momentum faded away somewhat.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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That said, we expect the uptrend to continue even if the correction could still carry Bitcoin lower. Further strong support is found between $9000 and $9200, while targets are ahead at $11,300, $13,000, and $14,250.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum showed strength during the bounce again after yesterday, together with the early leaders of the rally, and although the coin dipped below the $845 level in the second half of the session, the signs remain positive for bulls. Support levels are now found at $780, $740, $625 and $575, while resistance is ahead near $910 and $1000.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Stocks Refuse to Fall Even as China Takes Over Key Insurer

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Although it should have been a very quiet week in China, thanks to the New Year celebrations, the recent surge in volatility and the plunge in equities didn’t pass without consequences in the key market. Just shortly after effectively shutting down the Chinese version of the Volatility Index (VIX) (presumably to calm the markets…), one of the main actors of the monstrous financial web, Anbang, of the country had to be taken over to avoid a systemic event and stop the “creative” financial engineering that involved criminal activity (the shadow of 2008).

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China will likely need many more duck-tapes like this one if it wants to stop the largest credit bubble in human history to collapse, but for now, the solution could work. Equity futures edged higher since yesterday’s volatile close, and as the major US indices are holding up well, not far off last Friday’s highs, our bearish short-term view might have to be revised.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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As we discussed before, the long-term uptrend is intact, and we expect at least a re-test of the highs even if we are in a large-scale top formation, but we thought that the technical damage caused by the crash three weeks ago would require more healing.

We are not turning bullish just yet, but today’s session could finally decide if we the BTFD-crowd is strong enough to turn the tide after the choppy drift lower this week. We are still focusing on the Nasdaq, as the broader market seems to be following the lead of the tech benchmark, and a move 6850 (in the Nasdaq 100 futures, and still the 2735 level in the S&P) would be a very positive sign for bulls.

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The German DAX index is also showing some tentative short-term relative strength although it remains almost 10% below its all-time high, and it remains a strong negative divergence to be monitored.

Forex Markets Quiet

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The main pairs are trading in a choppy narrow range today after the strong move in the Yen and the drop in the USD yesterday. US Treasury Yields are edging lower today, helping the calm in equities and currencies, but on a bearish note, commodity currencies failed to rebound so far, and they were providing good signals since the crash. Day-traders should note that the Canadian Dollar will likely be very active again, with the Canadian CPI report coming out pre-market.

To sum the outlook up, we are still leaning on the risk-off side here regarding the short-term outlook, but we wouldn’t bet the farm on that, as there are mixed signals before the weekend.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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