Crypto Update: Yet Another Weak Rally Attempt

The cryptocurrency segment continues to trade in summer mode, with low volumes across the board, with the exception of the occasional sudden spike higher. The pattern that has been dominant in the past couple of weeks, the surges without meaningful follow-through, is still present with very little divergence between the major coins.

Bitcoin’s relative strength is still the only significant positive for bulls here, as the largest altcoins are broadly lagging BTC, and as the total value of the market is still little changed near the $270 billion level. With no clear bullish leadership to drive the market away from the June low, the probability of another test of the lows is increasing, even as the long-term picture is still slightly positive for the segment.

On a negative note, the coins that led the market lower are still weak, and Litecoin, Dash, NEO, and Ripple have been notably lagging in recent days as well, as even the strong oversold rally in NEO faded. Should the bearish leaders hit new lows in the coming period, it would be a negative sign from a technical perspective.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin’s rally stalled near the key $6750 level again, as another rally failed to carry the coin to new short-term highs. The technical setup has been unchanged for almost a week, with a dominant trading range and weak momentum in both directions.

That said, the largest coin is still faring better than Ethereum and its other main peers, but until a durable move above resistance, the short-term trend signal remains negative. Support is found at $6500, $6275, with the key long-term zone at $5850, while resistance above $6750 is ahead at $7000 and at $7350.

Ethereum and Ripple Remain Weak

Although Ethereum got close to the $500 level during the weekend, the coin couldn’t get over the key level, leaving the short-term technical setup bearish, despite the still apparent long-term strength of the coin. This mixed technical setup means that traders should still stay away from entering new positions here.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETH is now back near the $475 level after the rally attempt, and the coin is still close to the primary support level at $450, that it should hold to avoid a test of the $400-$420 zone that corresponds with the June low. Below that, further support is found at $380 and $360, while further resistance is ahead between $555 and $575.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The third largest coin is even weaker from a short-term standpoint, trading dangerously close to the June lows, without showing signs of bullish momentum. A break below long-term support would be another blow to bulls, but for now, the secular trend is still intact. Pimary support is found at $0.45, with another level at $0.42, while resistance is ahead at $0.51 and $0.54.

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.


Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.