Crypto Update: Still Stuck in Holding Pattern as Another Spike Fails

Despite a spike higher following US open, the cryptocurrency segment continues to be very quiet, as it has been the case throughout the week, with none of the top coins making meaningful technical progress. While Ripple attempted a break-out from its long-standing broad consolidation pattern, the move, rather predictably failed, and the coin is back near the $0.31 level.

We are still waiting for a decisive move in the relatively weak XRP’s market, while the likes of BTC and ETH continue to cling to key price levels as well, with the $3850 and $130 levels being in focus respectively. Looking lower on the capitalization list, we see signs of activity, but the kind of broad rally that could end the damaging long-term bear market still hasn’t started.

With that in mind, we remain defensive towards the segment here, and our trend model is on sell signals on both time frames with regards to the overwhelming majority of the coins. Until we start to see key resistance levels falling, traders and investors should still only enter small, speculative positions in the technically strongest coins, while avoiding the weaker coins entirely.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart

We continue to pay special attention to Ethereum, as the coin has been a reliable indicator regarding the overall direction in the segment, and the coin continues to be under apparent selling pressure. Despite today’s brief rally attempt and yesterday’s Ripple-led spike, the $145 level is still out of reach, and that means that our trend model remains on a short-term sell signal, while being clearly negative from a long-term perspective as well.

Above $145 ETH is also facing very strong resistance near $160 and $180, and all signs point to the continuation of the bear market once the current consolidation runs its course. Below the initial support level, $130 further zones are found in the vicinity of $120, near $112, and between $95 and $100, and traders should still not enter positions here.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin spiked briefly above $3900 in early US trading, but the move quickly reversed and the most valuable coin is back below the key $3850 price level, still not showing signs of bullish momentum. BTC is on clear sells signals on both time-frames, and it’s far away from the levels that would put the long-term bear market in question.

Below the long-term support/resistance zone between $4000 and $4050, the outlook remains negative even regarding the short-term time-frame with the next major resistance zone being ahead near $4450 and with strong support zones still found near $3600, $3450, $3250, and $3000.

Litecoin Still Stable Ripple Hits Brick Wall Again

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin participated in the spike higher today, almost reaching the $58 price level before retreating together with the broader market. The coin remains among the strongest ones from a short-term perspective and our trend model is still on a short-term buy signal as well.

That said, barring a broad-based move, the coin will likely roll over and continue its bear market in the coming weeks, so traders should still only consider short-term positions using strict risk management rules. Above the recent swing high, the next target zone is ahead near $64, while support is found near $51, $48, $44, and $38.50.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Following yesterday’s failed rally attempt, Ripple settled down today in early trading after drifting back to the $0.31 level from Wednesday’s high near $0.3250. With the dominant long-term pattern still being intact, we expect choppy trading conditions to persist for a while, but a larger scale move could begin anytime now.

Looking at the long-term picture, a bearish breakdown is still much more likely, even though, the low volatility consolidation is usually a bullish pattern. The failed rally attempts of the recent months confirm the selling pressure in the coin’s market, and strong resistance levels are still ahead near $0.3550, and $0.3750, with support zones found near $0.30, $0.28, and $.26.

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.