Crypto Update: Coins Turn Lower but Bitcoin Holds Strong
The major coins are all lower today following the failure of the recent rally attempt in the segment. The top coins couldn’t recapture the key resistance levels that they tested yesterday, meaning that the rally still only qualifies as a counter-trend bounce, leaving the short-term downtrend unchanged. That’s true even considering the relative strength of BTC, which remains an encouraging sign for bulls here, even though the most valuable coin is well shy of a buy signal in our trend model, and the overall outlook for the segment remains negative.
The declining short-term trendlines remain intact in most cases, and besides the still relatively strong Monero, none of the majors are showing signs of bullish momentum, odds continue to favor the continuation of the bearish trend. ETH could provide a much-needed boost to the segment, should it recapture the $200 level in a sustained fashion, but after leading the weekend bounce, the coin failed to extend its gains above the key resistance zone today said. Our trend model remains on sell signals on both time-frames for the overwhelming majority of the coins, and traders should remain defensive here, even concerning the relatively stronger currencies.
BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
While BTC also lost ground today, together with the broader market, the coin remains the strongest major from a technical perspective both short- and long-term. That said, Bitcoin is still trapped below the key long-term $11,300 level and its prior recovery high, leaving the declining short-term trend intact. On another negative note, BTC continues to lag the other major safe-haven assets, such as gold, the Yen, and U.S. Treasuries, which have been rallying together with the largest digital currency earlier on in August.
Our trend model is still on sell signals on both time-frames, and but BTC could be in for a renewed buy signal, should it recapture the $11,300 level. Initial support is still found near $10,000, with further zones near $9,200, $8,400, and $8,200, while resistance zones above $11,300 are ahead near $13,000, and at the prior rally high near $14,000.
ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ethereum remains at the center of attention in the segment, as after a long period of weakness, it showed early signs of strength during the recent bounce. ETH is now in safe distance of the key $180-$185 zone, and while it failed to break out above $200, it remained stable during today’s dip. While ETH alone won’t turn the bearish tide in the segment, and long-term technicals would remain negative even in the case of a larger-scale correction, a sustained move above $200 could signal a short-term trend change.
Despite the encouraging strength, the coin is still on clear sell signals on both time-frames in our trend model, and until a short-term uptrend is confirmed, traders should stay away from ETH. Below the zone between $180 and $185, further support is found near $160, and $145, while above $200, resistance levels are still ahead near $230 and $265.
Ripple and Litecoin Continue to Struggle
XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Although ETH’s strength is a plus for bulls, the other top coins don’t support the bullish case, and today, both LTC and XRP remained under strong selling pressure. XRP is still trading above its recent lows and the prior bear market low near $0.26, but despite a spike above $0.28, the coin couldn’t build bullish momentum amid the oversold bounce. The short-term downtrend remains intact in XRP’s market, and a move below $0.26 still seems likely in the coming weeks.
XRP is still on clear sell signals on both time-frames in our trend model, and below the $0.30 level, traders shouldn’t consider even short-term positions in the relatively weak coin. Below the $0.26 level, further support is found near $0.23, while above the $0.30 level, strong resistance zones are ahead near $0.32 and just above $0.33.
LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
After the relatively weak bounce, Litecoin also showed weakness during today’s dip, and the coin briefly spiked below the $75 level again, getting dangerously close to last week’s low. LTC is in a clear short-term downtrend, and as the oversold short-term momentum readings have been cleared, it looks ready to hit new lows following last week’s key technical breakdown.
Our trend model is still on clear sell signals on both time frames, and due to today’s decline, the coin is now far from renewed buy signal. Below $75, further support is still found near $64, while resistance zones above are ahead in the $85-$90 zone, near $100, between $110 and $112, and near $125.
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Disclaimer: The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.