Crypto Update: Coins Settle Down But Divergences Persist
The major cryptocurrencies are having a mixed weekend, so far, with a bearish bias, with especially BTC being under pressure. The top altcoins continue to consolidate after their recent rally, but only ETH is looking clearly positive, holding on within its steeply rising short-term trend channel, relatively close to its recent swing high.
The likes of LTC and XRP are in much less convincing short-term patterns, and all in all, we still don’t have hard evidence against the counter-trend rally scenario, and the altcoin bear market is likely to continue in the coming weeks. That said, our trend model remains on a short-term buy signal for the top four coins, but apart from BTC, the broader picture is still clearly negative. All eyes will be on ETH this weekend, as its relative strength is the most encouraging sign for bulls and it hit a new swing high as soon this weekend.
BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
BTC failed to move above its prior trading range, and today it dipped briefly below $10,000 again, but the technical pattern is still unchanged, and the coin is yet to experience a decisive move. The broad triangle consolidation pattern is intact, but given the length volatility-compression trend, a larger-scale move might be ahead in the coming week.
Our trend model is still on a long-term sell signal, while being on a short-term buy signal, with further support below $10,000 still found near $9.200, $8,400, and $8,200, and with resistance zones ahead near $11,300, and $13,000.
ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
ETH has been showing relative strength today, drifting sideways in a narrow range near its previous swing high. The coin is overbought from a short-term momentum perspective, but it remains clearly above the $200 support level, and it could test the $230 resistance before the end of the counter-trend move.
Our trend model is on a short-term buy signal and a long-term sell signal, with support below the initial $200 level is found between $180 and $185, and with resistance ahead near $230 and $260.
Ripple Still Stuck Below $0.30, as LTC Threatens With Breakdown
XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ripple has been suspiciously weak ever since its failed move above $0.32, and the coin continues to trade below $0.30 in a bearish consolidation pattern. The recent price action is hinting on a move below $0.28 in the coming days, which would negate the current short-term buy signal in our trend model, due to the hostile long-term technicals.
Our model remains on a clear long-term sell signal, and we still expect the coin to resume its bear market following the current counter-trend move. Resistance zones are ahead near $0.30, $0.32, and just above $0.33, while further support zones found near $0.26 and $0.23.
LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Litecoin remained closely correlated to XRP today, and it is also showing clear signs of weakness compared to ETH. Given the leading role the coin played over the past few months, a failed counter-trend move in its market would be a negative sign for the whole segment.
The coin is still on a long-term sell signal in our trend model, but it remains on a short-term buy signal as well, even though it could soon break below its weak rising trendline. Resistance zones above $75 are still ahead between $85 and $90 and near $100, while support zones below $70 are found near $64 and $56.
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Disclaimer: The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.