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Crypto Update: Coins Retreat After Rally Attempt

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While yesterday the major cryptocurrencies recovered their weekend losses and bounced back above their prior lows, the bounce got halted before changing the short-term technical setup. As the world is focused on today’s key Brexit vote, trading volumes are once again very low, but the lack of bullish follow-through is a warning sign for traders here even considering the low level of trading activity.

We haven’t seen signs of a developing leadership in recent days, with correlations remaining high and with the top coins failing at the first major levels of resistance for now. That said, should the coins hold above yesterday’s lows and push above consolidation range, the formation of a bear-trap pattern is still possible even as odds still favor the continuation of the bear market.

In light of the short- and long-term setups, traders and investors should still stay away from entering new positions, with our trend model still being on sell signals on both time frames for the majority of the top coins.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the breakdown in Bitcoin got bought yesterday, the bounce failed to reach the $3850 level and the most valuable coin is still hovering near the $3600 level, leaving both the neutral short-term, and of course, the long-term sell signal intact in our trend model.

A move above $3850 would be a positive sign for bulls, but odds still favor a negative outcome and a likely test of the $3000 level in the coming weeks, so even short-term traders should still away from entering new positions here. Further, weaker support is found near $3250, with resistance ahead between $4000 and $4050, and near $4450.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although Ethereum briefly topped the $130 level after plunging below the $120 support, a failed breakdown pattern hasn’t been confirmed in the previously leading coin, and the short-term sell signal remains in place in our trend model.

With the bearish long-term picture in mind, and with the oversold short-term momentum readings now cleared, the outlook for the coin remains negative, even as the resumption the counter-trend rally is still a possibility here. Further support below $120 is found between $95 and $100, while resistance is ahead at $160 and near $180.

Altcoins Still Stuck in Downtrends Across the Board

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin’s rally stooped near the upper boundary of last week’s consolidation range, and although the coin is safely above the key $30-$30.50 support zone, the momentum of the bounce is waning. The bearish long-term forces still seem to be dominant, and the coin is well below the primary resistance level near $34.50, so our trend model remains on sell signals on both time-frames. Further strong resistance ahead near $38 and $44 and with support is found near $26 and $23.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple experienced a brief period of relative stability after the weekend sell-off, but that didn’t change the bearish overall picture for the coin, and technicals are still hostile for bulls here. The coin continues to hover around the $0.32 price level, but we still expect a move below $0.30 in the coming weeks with a test of the bear market lows being the most likely scenario.

Another strong support level is found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3550, $0.3750, and in the key long-term zone between $0.42 and $0.46.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is also among the weaker majors and although it bounced back together with the broader market, it failed to sustainably recapture the $45 level, and it remains in clear short- and long-term downtrend. Our trend model is o sell signals on both time-frames as well, and the re-test of the bear market low just below $38 seems very likely in the coming weeks.

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 464 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Ethereum Update: Bottom Already Reached

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To say that Ethereum (ETH/USD) had a bad 2018 would be a huge understatement. After climbing as high as $1,424.3 in January 2018, the market quickly reversed. 11 months later, Ethereum recorded lows of $83 on December 7, 2018. In other words, the 2018 bear market has devalued Ethereum by over 94%.

While this is disastrous to investors who bought positions prior to the December 7 low, we are inclined to think that the worst is behind us. We’ll even go as far to say that Ethereum will not be making new lows anytime soon. In this article, we explain why the bottom is most likely already in.

Volume Upticks Show Capitulation

One of the reasons why many retail traders fail to catch the bottom is because they’re too focused on price action. They look at the chart and formulate their bias by trying to figure out the current structure or even candlestick pattern. Many fail to include volume in their analysis when in fact, it is the most reliable indicator of a market that’s bottoming out.

When an asset is in a downtrend, a significant volume surge over a fairly short period of time is a strong sign that participants have capitulated. In other words, retail traders have given up hope on trying to recoup gains that they sell their positions at a loss. This inspires a massive panic selling causing an asset like Ethereum to nosedive. We saw this happen on the week of November 19, 2018.

Ethereum volume uptick

During that week, Ethereum printed its largest volume in its history on Bitfinex. Volume stayed significantly elevated for six more weeks. This more than meets the usual criteria for capitulation.

Capitulation Requires Tremendous Capital  

When a market capitulates, the asset is transferred from the hands of the dumb money (retail) to the hands of the smart money (institutions or whales). While this may sound familiar to most retail traders, what many fail to realize is that it takes tremendous resources to keep the price of an asset like Ethereum from spiraling out of control during this period.

To get a better understanding of this argument, let’s look at the volume printed on Bitfinex from

November 19 to December 7:

Week 1 (November 19)

  • Volume = 6.072 million ETH units
  • Range High = $178.99
  • Range Low  = $102.96

Week 2 (November 26)

  • Volume = 3.585 million ETH units
  • Range High = $127.87
  • Range Low  = $102.2

Week 3 (December 3)

  • Volume = 3.97 million ETH units
  • Range High = $117.53
  • Range Low  = $83

(Median Range/Price: $130.995)

Over this three week period, the smart money had to absorb selling pressure to the tune of 13.627 million ETH units. If you multiply this by the median price of $130.995, that’s a mind-blowing $1.785 billion! Whales had to commit such an amount to keep prices from falling further. Even for rich people, this is a huge investment.

If you’re a savvy investor, the only reason you would invest such a huge amount of money is the promise of generous returns.

Absorption Translates to Market Control

If you’re a whale and you bought $100 million worth of Ethereum at $150, your investments are down by 17.33% at current market levels of $124. In other words, you are in the red for $17.33 million. To an ordinary investor, this is unacceptable. However, the smart money can tolerate such a tremendous loss because they have assumed significant control of supply. This is the primary reason why we believe that the bottom is already in.

As mentioned, it took tremendous resources to keep Ethereum above $83. On top of that, it took the smart money an additional 11 million ETH units to pump the market from $83 to $163 between December 10 – December 24. All in all, the smart money has likely accumulated about 24 million out of the 104 million ETH units in circulation between November 19 – December 24.

Ethereum is a market that trades a daily average of over 200,000 ETH units. If you were to control millions of ETH units, you could trigger dumps and pumps at any given moment.

Average daily trading volume of Ethereum

Right now, it makes sense from a whale perspective to pump the market to around $200 and protect that level. By doing so, the smart money will ensure that their investments are in profits. More importantly, the price action will attract retail traders and generate bullish sentiment. Once the fear of missing out sets in, Ethereum will likely pump on its own and generously reward those who invested at the bottom.

Bottom Line

The significant volume upticks between November 19 – December 24 convince us that the bottom is already in. The smart money have accumulated a sizeable portion of the current Ethereum supply such that they may be able to trigger dumps and pumps anytime. Having this control enables them to pump the market to around $200 to protect their investments, lure retail money, and generate profits in the future.

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.8 stars on average, based on 326 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

3 Things You Need to Know About the Market Today: Extended Trade Talks, Economic Data Dump, National Emergency

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1, Trade Talks to Continue Next Week in Washington

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The news of the day, so far, is clearly the unexpected extension of the current round of trade talks between the US and China. The negotiations will reportedly continue next week in Washington, and that could mean that some kind of formal agreement is already in the works. We expected, at least, and extension of the March 1 deadline, and although the rumors were pointing to that earlier on this week, the current state of the talks is even more positive for bulls.

That said, the mature global risk rally only managed to grind on, with the key markets missing real bullish momentum this week. The S&P 500 yet again hit marginal new recovery highs today, but the MACD indicator is clearly showing weakness, despite the week’s positive new flow, and as the Volatility Index (VIX) hasn’t been confirming the move either, we are sticking to our defensive stance towards equities here.

2, British Retail Sales Beat as US Consumer Confidence on Tap

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the Great British Pound has been weak amid the continued Brexit-related uncertainty, with the weakening economic numbers also weighing on the currency, British equities have been outperforming in the meanwhile. Today, we had the first major positive economic surprise in a long-time from Europe, as the British Retails Sales Report was much better-than-expected, coming in at 1.0% vs. the consensus estimate of 0.2%.

The FTSE 100 hit its highest level since early October today, boosted by the weakening but still ongoing global risk rally and the weakening currency. Stock investors don’t seem to be concerned by the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, despite the apocalyptic forecast by the Bank of England and the anti-Brexiters.

The GBP barely budged following the strong retail sales data, and the GBP/USD pair is near its recent 1-month lows amid the Dollar’s broad push higher. US Industrial Production came in at -0.6% missing the consensus estimate of 0.1% by a wide margin, while the Empire State Manufacturing index was slightly better-than-expected. The day’s most-awaited US report is due to come out after the bell and analysts expect a slight uptick to 93.3 after the huge drop in the measure in December.

3, Dollar on the Verge of Break-Out as Trump to Declare National Emergency

Dollar Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

After some consideration, the President decided to sign the bill on border security that removes the immediate risk of a government shutdown. On the other hand, Mr. Trump will also reportedly declare a national emergency to secure additional funding for the Wall and the Democrats are already considering legal action to fight that decision.

As for the effects on markets, the fact that a second government shutdown is off the table boosted equities and the dollar today. Even though, we don’t think that the Border Wall saga is over and we are likely already deep into the 2020 campaign. With that in mind, we expect a ‘light’ legislative schedule for the coming two years, with the legislative gridlock giving a great chance to the Democrats to tackle President Trump ahead of the elections.

We have been tracking the Dollar’s rebound ever since the Fed meeting, and while the key resistance zone near 97, which roughly corresponds with the support zone between the 1.1250 and 1.13 in the EUR/USD, is still intact, a break-out to new multi-year highs looks more and more likely. The momentum of the short-term move could lead to a major break-out following the lengthy consolidation period, but we could still see volatility in the current trading range due to the several failed break-out attempts in recent months.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 464 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Stellar Price Analysis: XLM Bulls are Back as Coinsquare Acquires StellarX

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  • XLM/USD is trading up around 4% on Friday, with the bulls looking to break out of a narrowing daily range.
  • Canadian cryptocurrency exchange has acquired StellarX, a decentralised platform.

XLM: Recent Price Behaviour

Stellar’s XLM has seen a pick-up in bullish momentum in the session on Friday, having jumped around 4% at the time of writing. The price has managed to stabilize somewhat after producing all-time lows down at $0.07318000. XLM/USD had remained within an extremely stubborn trend to the south, following the bears smashing out of a pennant structure. The price had been confined since from early December 2018 up to 20th January, when the breach occurred. As a result, a fresh wave of selling pressure hit XLM, forcing the mentioned new bottom.

Coinsquare Acquire StellarX

Canadian cryptocurrency exchange Coinsquare has acquired the StellarX decentralized exchange. StellarX is a trading platform built by the developers of the Stellar blockchain. The platform was initially launched in July 2018, offering fast transitions, zero costs, and a wide range of asset classes that include crypto, fiat and commodities. XLM is used as the base currency for trading across the decentralized exchange.

The camp at StellarX detailed the announcement via Medium, specifying that they will still be pressing forward with the outlined roadmap noted back in September of last year. StellarX detailed that the reason for the acquisition is to make way for the exchange to maximize its full potential. The platform will be able to leverage the sizeable regulatory experience that Coinsquare has, with their visions to build around the platform. It is worth noting that the Canadian exchange has a network with regulators in Canada, the United States, and Europe. Additionally, Coinsquare also previously managed to secure a relationship with one of Canada’s big five banks, the Bank of Montreal.

Moreover, Coinsquare already has experience with the Stellar network; it previously acquired BlockEQ in the back-end of last year for $12 million. Moving forward, StellarX is going to be led by BlockEQ’s co-founder Megha Bambra, with the sights to continue growing and enhancing the Stellar ecosystem. BlockEQ is a private Stellar wallet which allows users to have total control of their funds via a private key. The wallet is accessible on both mobile and desktop.

Technical Review – XLM/USD

XLM/USD daily chart.

XLM/USD has managed to find its feet after resuming the downside pressure seen throughout 2018 and carried into 2019. This year the price has dropped as much as 45%, due to the crypto market-wide cooling. Should the mentioned bottom area $0.07318000 remain intact, eyes will be on a retest of the breached pennant pattern structure. The bulls must breakdown a small resistance barrier, which is the upper part of the past fifteen trading days range.

Furthermore, the lower part of the pennant is tracking at $0.11150000; a move back here would complete the breakout and retest. Lastly, if this resistance holds firm and rejection occurs, then it could very well make way for another wave of selling pressure.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 123 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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