Crypto Update: Coins Pull Back After Late-Week Rally

The major cryptocurrencies started the week on a negative note, as after the push higher on Friday they failed to extend the rally. The short-term resistance levels that we have been monitoring in the top coin’s markets remained intact and with that, the outlook for the segment remains negative from both short- and long-term perspectives.

That said, yesterday’s losses haven’t been serious, and the swing lows set at the beginning of the month also stand, so we still can’t rule out the continuation of the February counter-trend move. The leaders of the February rally continue to be mixed, and although we have been seeing strength among some of the smaller, without bullish momentum in the market’s of the top coins, a sustained advance is highly unlikely.

With that in mind, barring a broad move above key support levels, we remain defensive towards the segment here, even though traders could still open smaller, speculative positions in the relatively stronger coins. Our trend model remains overwhelmingly bearish, and odds still favor the continuation of the bear market from a broader perspective.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin continues to trade in a clear short-term uptrend, despite only managing to reach a marginal new swing high in the wake of Friday’s rally. The coin fell back below $60 yesterday, but it remains slightly above its previous swing high, so a failed break-out pattern is not confirmed.

LTC could still be headed to the next main target zone near the $64 price level, even in light of the weakening momentum of the move, and despite the bearish long-term setup. Traders could still hold on to their positions in the relatively strong coin. Support zones are now found near $56, $51, $48, and $44, with the dominant short-term trendline currently being found near the $56 support.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart

While Ethereum got close to testing the key short-term resistance level near $145 over the weekend, it remains stuck in the no-mans-land between that level and the $130 support. As the market is looking for short-term direction, we are still biased towards the direction of the long-term trend, so our trend model continues to be on sell signals on both time-frames.

That said, a move above $145 would open up the way to the very strong $160 level, and possibly towards the $180 level and a new swing high. From a long-term [perspective we are still likely in an orderly correction pattern, meaning that the coin will probably revisit the prior bear market low near $80, with further key support zones found above that near $112 and between $95 and $100.

Ripple Still Drifting Sideways as Bitcoin Flirts with $4000

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The most valuable coin is trading in a bullish short-term consolidation pattern, eyeing the key $4000-$4050 zone, while showing short-term relative strength. That’s a positive sign concerning the immediate outlook for the top coins, but until BTC manages to break-out sustainably, our trend model will remain on sell signals on both time-frames, given the still hostile long-term picture.

Above the primary zone, further strong resistance is found near $4450, and even a test of that zone would leave the long-term downtrend intact. Primary support is still found near $3850, with further zones near $3600, $3450, and $3250, and a test of the long-term zone near $3000 still seems likely from a long-term standpoint.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Ripple drifted out of the broad triangle consolidation pattern that we have been monitoring for months now, we are still waiting for a decisive move to end the low-volume, low-volatility period. XRP remains in a clear long-term downtrend and although we haven’t seen signs of bearish momentum in recent weeks, the failed rally attempts confirm the selling pressure in the coin’s market.

The $0.32 level has been limiting the short-term rallies recently, while the $0.3050 level provided a short-term floor for XRP. Trading activity remains very light in the Ripple’s market, while our trend model is still on sell signals on both time-frames. Support zones are found near $0.30, $0.28, and $0.26, while above $0.32, further key resistance levels are ahead near $0.3550, and $0.3750.

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.