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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Consolidate Above Support but Downtrend Still Intact

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It has been a very quiet weekend for the major cryptocurrencies so far, as the predominantly bearish week ended with range trading and a collapse in volumes across the board. Most of the top coins failed to gain back the ground they lost during the steep selloff, with only Binance Coin and VeChain showing meaningful bullish momentum.

The relatively strong Ethereum, EOS, and Ripple remained stable, with ETH hovering around the $500 level, EOS trading north of the key $10 support despite the network’s technical issues, and Ripple being stuck in a narrow range just below the widely-watched $0.54 resistance level. The total capitalization of the market has been virtually unchanged at $280 billion, as both Bitcoin and Ethereum flatlined.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is trading right at the short-term support level near $6500, holding up just above the April low, with the crucial long-term support zone near $5850 that is vital for the whole segment. The coin is clearly in a short-term downtrend, while also being relatively weak on all time frames. The oversold short-term momentum readings are now cleared and that could point to a test of the lows in the coming days.

 

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum also cleared the short-term oversold readings, but it failed to leave the vicinity of the $500 support/resistance level. Despite the coin’s undoubted relative strength, and the still bullish long-term setup, the short-term trend signal remains a sell, and the declining trend is intact. Traders should still not enter new positions here, while investors could add to their holdings on the short-term selloffs. Strong resistance is ahead between $555 and $575, while further support is found at $450, $400, and $380.

Divide Widens between Leaders and Laggards

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although short-term correlations skyrocketed during last week’s decline, the divergence between the relatively strong and weak coins got even more pronounced, with the likes of Litecoin, Dash, and Monero severely lagging the broader market. Litecoin got stuck below the $100 level after the breakdown last week, and it is below the long-term base pattern, as it failed to show relative strength during the weekend. Immediate support is found at $90, but new lows are likely in the coming days, as the short-term downtrend remains dominant. 

BNB/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As a positive outlier, Binance Coin remained bullish amid the broad decline, holding on to the relative strength that it has been showing for several weeks. The coin’s stability is encouraging, and it’s nearing its rally highs with today’s surge, while having a good chance of resuming its uptrend, even as another segment-wide selloff could cause a jump in volatility again.

For now, the market is torn between bullish and bearish forces, and investors should focus on the technicals of BTC and ETH, while also keeping an eye on the leaders of the rally for signs of sutained strenght.

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 294 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Stocks Mixed as Dollar Tests Highs Again

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Choppy summer trading conditions continue to dominate traditional financial markets, with low train volumes and relatively narrow intraday ranges in most of the asset classes. Despite the low activity, there is still a clear rising trend in US markets, while the rest of the world tries to gather some bullish momentum despite the widespread technical relative weakness.

Trump’s controversial meeting with Putin still made the most headlines, although stocks largely ignored the story, while trade war fears and the Brexit drama had much stronger impacts, with especially the Pound performing weaker than its peers.

Dow Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Nasdaq is still trading just below its all-time high, despite today’s weaker session, while the S&P 500 hit another marginal 5-month high today, with the Dow still lagging behind the rest of the market. The ongoing earnings season also adds to the choppiness of the day-to-day price action, and with the deep global divergences still present, we remain defensive towards equities here.

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Asian equities experienced a bounce in the last couple of weeks, but China which has been the epicenter of the weakness in June is still struggling to join the move. The trade-war torn Shanghai Composite is still trading near its recent lows, confirming the bear market, while the Yuan hit new 12-month lows compared to the USD in the last couple of days again.

Commodities Mixed as Yuan Tumbles but Dollar Rally Looms

Emerging market currencies are generally under pressure, and the Dollar has been pushing higher against its major peers as well today, with the Great British Pound and the Euro both sliding towards their June lows, and the Yen hitting a new year-to-date low before the afternoon pullback in the Greenback.

Dollar Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar’s rally, which was boosted by the lower than expected British CPI release in European trading paused somewhat in late trading, after the Dollar index got close to its 1-year high. The US housing market showed a huge drop in activity in July, with Building Permits disappointing and Housing Starts falling off a cliff unexpectedly. The rising yields, which are behind most of the moves this year, are talking a tall on the segment, and that could be a major drag on GDP growth in the coming quarter.

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities posted a reversal-like performance today, with gold, oil, and copper all rebounding off their early lows, but for now, the bearish short-term trend remains dominant in the segment. The bounce in gold still left the precious metal below short-term resistance at $1240, while copper is still bouncing around just above long-term support. WTI Crude Oil which lost more than 10% in a matter of days, found support at $66 per barrel, entering a consolidation phase after the rout.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 294 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Technical Analysis: BTC/Tether

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Tradingview is a web application that allows full charting abilities for free. Different online brokerages have different charting abilities and tools.  Using tradingview.com, I was able to utilize Fibonacci zones with the following levels: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 100.00%. I did not set support or resistance levels because they are irrelevant to this analysis. Using indicators such as volume, moving-average convergence divergence (MACD), and Relative Strength Indicators, we are able to predict the movement in the price of Bitcoin relative to Tether. One Tether (USDT) is equal to one U.S dollar, give or take 3 cents.

This 3 day analysis uses price movements plunging into the 61.8% Fibonacci zone to trigger a buy signal. From there, we verify the buy signal with the MACD indicator below the chart. Notice how the MACD looks like a sell signal, but in fact goes back negative. Moving from a negative spread to a positive spread, triggers the buy signal as the price bounces off of the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

Following the next two days, I conducted another analysis using the same strategy. This time I inserted a support where three touches occur in the price.  Bitcoin’s price took a dive on volume pointing to a massive selloff. We were able to capitalize on this by waiting until the price crossed the Fibonacci barrier into the 61.8% zone. From there, the MACD spread checked out at -8.68. A buy signal was created and we waited until the price neared the top of the 50.0% zone.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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1 stars on average, based on 1 rated postsMichael Genna works in Business Development at Benzinga, a financial media and technology company located in downtown Detroit. He attends Wayne State University, majoring in finance with a minor in economics.




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Analysis

Ether Price Has a Good Chance of Rising Further

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On Wed July 18, Ether is falling, although the previously formed local uptrend still looks quite sustainable. The crypto is trading around $498, says Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex.

Today’s morning, Ether rose above $500, which helped to determine the next important resistance levels. The bullish trendline at $480 that was formed yesterday is now confirmed on H1, and in case Ether is able to go above $500 shortly, its chances for going further up will increase.

Once Ether continues rising, it will quickly reach $525, and the current support levels will go above, too. As of now, Ether has some potential to rise till $550, according to D1.

For now, the key support for Ether is at $480, and once the crypto heads up, a new support at $500 will get active. $525 is still key resistance for now. The MACD is going up on D1, still in the negatives, and is issuing a buy signal, while the Stochastic confirms it, being in the positive territory.

ether

Among fundamentals and events that are important for Ether traders, one can mention the addition of Bitcoin and Ether to Purple Group. The company believes its customers will now have more freedom in selecting payment methods for running their transactions.

Another important news item is that the brokers using MT4 began offering cryptocurrency trading (at first, only Bitcoin, but then other cryptos were added). In most cases, the clients can trade CFD’s, although some brokers allow direct cryptocurrency transactions, too. This is a very interesting opportunity, as the investors trust MT4 and consider it a secure platform, so crypto trading added to it will be trusted, too.

With more products added to the platform, both direct crypto trading and CFD’s, more people will come to MT4 in order to try it. This is positive for both Ether and other altcoins.

 

Disclaimer:

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 4 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, Dmitry went on to continue his education in post graduate. He then worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped him to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. Dmitry is a pro in the financial field who authors articles for various international media. He also holds the position of Chief Analyst at RoboForex.




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