Crypto Update: Bitcoin Resumes Rally as Altcoins Edge Lower

The cryptocurrency segment had another mixed and quiet session, despite the post-Fed surge across traditional financial markets. Bitcoin clearly outperformed its peers today, recapturing the $9400, triggering a renewed buy signal in our trend model, and getting close to hitting a new 15-month high. The other majors mostly drifted lower, although Monero added to its recent gains, and Binance Coin also popped higher.

The long-term technical setups remain bearish in the segment, and even though the immediate outlook remains positive, the ‘under-the-hood’ weakness is still apparent, with only a few coins making new rally highs, despite the strength of Bitcoin and Litecoin, and the stability of the other top coins. That said, traders could still enter smaller short-term positions in the relatively stronger coins, even as the downside risks continue to mount from a broader perspective.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin has been the most active coin today, and even though trading volumes remained low across the board, the technical strength of BTC triggered a renewed short-term buy signal in our trend model. The rising short-term trend is clearly intact, and although the long-term setup remains negative, the stage is set for a test of the key 10,000 level.

The most valuable coin could still lead the segment higher, but traders should remain cautious here, as should the broader counter-trend rally roll over, a steep sell-off could soon follow. Strict risk management rules should still be applied here, although above the prior swing high the next level of resistance is only ahead at $10,000, while support is now found near $9200, $9000, $8400, and $8200.

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On the other side of the spectrum, Ripple continues to severely lag its peers, and even though it’s still holding up above the $0.42 support, it’s far from breaking its prior swing high. The coin remains on sell signals on both time-frames, and barring a move above the key long-term $0.46 level, traders should still stay away from XRP.

Ripple is still likely to resume its bear market soon, even as the segment-wide rally is still ongoing, and even on the short-term time-frame, XRP failed to show signs of accumulation. In the case of a break-out,   the coin could test the $0.51 level, with another strong resistance zone ahead near $0.54, and with support zone below  $0.42 found near $0.3750, $0.3550, just above $0.33, and near $0.32.

Litecoin and Ethereum Stuck in Narrow Ranges

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Litecoin triggered a short-term buys signal in our trend model yesterday, after completing a consolidation pattern, it failed to move above its prior swing high. The coin has been struggling with the $140 resistance level, but for now, the immediate outlook remains positive and odds still favor a bullish move in the coming days, due to the coin’s continued relative strength.

That said, even though traders could enter new short-term positions here the long-term setup still warrants caution, and we still don’t expect a sustained break-out from the current levels. Initial support is still found near $125 with further levels near $110, $100, and between $85 and $90, while above the first target near the key long-term $150 level, further resistance is ahead near $180.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum has been trading in a very narrow range tomorrow, as trading volume and volatility collapsed in the coin’s market, and the $275 resistance was in no danger despite BTC’s rally. While the relative weakness of the coin is a worrying sign, it is close to triggering a renewed short-term buy signal in our model thanks to the current low-volume consolidation.

For now, our trend model is on till a neutral short-term signal, while being on a clear long-term sell signal and even in the case of another swing higher, downside risks will remain high from a broader perspective. A move above $275 would open up the way towards $300 and even the $330 resistance, while in case of a failed move, support levels are found near $260, $200, and $180.

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Author:
Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.