Crypto Update: Another Rally Attempt in Crypto-Land
The major cryptocurrencies are all trading slightly higher today, following two bearish days that brought them back to last week lows, and for now, another breakdown has been avoided, despite the overwhelmingly bearish broader picture. The modest bounce left our trend model on sell signals across the board, and odds continue to favor new lows in the coming period, so traders and investors should remain defensive here.
The top coins are trading well below the weekend bounce-highs and without new swing highs, the short-term trend also remains clearly bearish, even considering the deeply oversold long-term momentum readings and the abysmal sentiment. So while a larger scale bounce remains possible in the coming weeks, perhaps following a failed breakdown pattern, bulls should still be patient until we sell clear technical improvements in the segment.
With that in mind, traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions even in the slightly stronger coins, and odds still favor the continuation of the bear market, with new lows likely in the coming days. That said, a successful test or a failed breakdown could trigger a larger scale correction, with the broader picture still being deeply oversold and with investor sentiment still being very negative. For now, there is no sign of an imminent rally, with all eyes on the $3000 in Bitcoin.
BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Bitcoin rallied as high as $3450 today, but it failed to get close to the $3600 resistance and the weekend high, so the short-term downtrend remains intact despite the bounce. For now, our trend model is still on sell signals on both time-frames, and traders should stay away from entering new positions here, with the long-term picture also being clearly bearish. Further resistance is ahead in the $4000-$4050 zone, while key long-term support is found near the $3000 price level.
ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ethereum is stuck below the key $95-$100 zone even following today’s bounce, keeping the coin on a short-term sell signal in our trend model. Odds still favor a move towards the next major support zone between $73 and $75, and only a quick recovery above the primary resistance zone could change the short-term trend.
The steep long-term downtrend is clearly intact in the coin, and traders and investors should still not enter new positions here, with further strong resistance zones ahead near $120 and $130.
Altcoins Avoid Breakdown but Strong Resistance Zones Lie Ahead
Dash/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Despite yesterday’s weakness, last week’s lows held up even in the relatively weaker majors, and although that’s an early sign of stability, it’s not enough to warrant upgrades in our trend model. With still no bullish leadership present in the segment the continued technical weakness in the lagging coins, such as Dash reinforces our bearish long-term view.
XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ripple only experienced a weak bounce, and although it continues to trade near the $0.30 level, the coin is still among the relatively weak coins from a short-term perspective and the renewed long-term sell signal is also in place.
We still expect a move towards the prior bear market low near $0.26, with a weaker support level found above that near $0.28, and traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here, with resistance levels above $0.30 ahead at $0.32, $0.3550, and $0.3750.
Litecoin/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
While Litecoin managed to hold up above its recent swing low and the $23 support level, it remains in steep short- and long-term downtrends, and we would need to see significant technical strength for even a short-term trend change.
Our trend model is on sell signals on both time-frames, and below $23, the next major support zone is found between $20 and $20.50 with strong resistance ahead near $26 and between $30 and $30.50.
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Disclaimer: The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.