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Crypto Update: 5 Altcoins to Watch This Week

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Over the last few weeks, we’ve been looking at small-cap altcoins making big moves. A good number of these altcoins such as DOCK (DOCK/BTC), Haven (XHV/BTC), and Raiden Network Token (RDN) have moved according to expectations. While there are many micro-cap alts showing promise, we shift our attention to large caps, which made stirring moves over the weekend.

In this article, we reveal the five large cap altcoins to watch this week.

1. Bitcoin Cash/Bitcoin (BCH/BTC)

News of the November 15 hard fork has given Bitcoin Cash a new lease in life. Over the weekend, the market went parabolic and broke out of a small descending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. In doing so, BCH/BTC breached multiple resistances and climbed as high as 0.091342 on November 4 before profit-taking commenced.

4H chart of BCH/BTC

In the coming days, we expect the market to pull back as bottom pickers and bargain hunters lock in gains. Nevertheless, keep a close eye on Bitcoin Cash. It will likely retest support one (S1) and dip as low as S2. Bulls must successfully complete the retests to give the market a chance to take out resistance one (R1) first and then R2.

NOTE: Bitcoin Cash is BCH on most exchanges, but some refer to it as BCC instead.

2. Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC)

Just a few days ago, social media was flooded with posts regarding the demise of Ethereum. Many predicted that ETH/BTC will revisit its 2018 low of 0.026882 that we saw on September 12. The tune suddenly changed, however, as Ethereum/Bitcoin broke out of the descending triangle pattern on the 4H chart and went as high as 0.033577 on November 4.

4H chart of ETH/BTC

Unfortunately, Ethereum flashed extreme overbought readings before it could touch R1. Thus, we can expect it to retrace back to S1 or at least close to it before making another attempt to breach R1.

Ethereum must take out R2 to start looking bullish. The true bull run begins once it moves above R3.

3. Monero/Bitcoin (XMR/BTC)

Monero is not getting the attention that it deserves. It did not make a big splash over the weekend. However, XMR/BTC broke out of range when it breached resistance of 0.017 on November 4. The breakout enabled the pair to rally and touch R1 before succumbing to profit-taking.

4H chart of XMR/BTC

Monero pulled back after respecting RSI resistance of 78. We expect the pair to continue correcting in the next few days but we believe it will not go below S2. If S2 holds, then we might be looking at a large cup and handle reversal structure. With that being said, Monero must take out R2 to ignite its bull run.

4. TRON/Bitcoin (TRX/BTC)

Compared to other altcoins on this list, TRON had a rather ordinary weekend. Nevertheless, it made the list because of its ability to stay above S1 after climbing as high as R2 on October 8, 2018. This price movement is enabling TRX/BTC to establish a bullish higher low setup around 350 satoshis. The market needs this new base if it wants to take out R1.

4H chart of TRX/BTC

Currently, TRON is in near overbought territory. We expect it to pull back before it makes a move to breach R1 and R2. Take out R2 and TRON launches a new bull run.

5. Litecoin/Bitcoin (LTC/BTC)

Capping off our list is Litecoin. LTC/BTC had a strong weekend as it went above 0.00809 and climbed as high as 0.008663 on the same day (November 4). At that level, however, the market was extremely overbought. This gave bottom fishers and bargain hunters the signal to start unloading.

4H chart of LTC/BTC

To start showing signs of bullishness, Litecoin must hold S1. This will enable the market to establish a bullish higher low setup. LTC/BTC faces a few near-term resistances so a higher low can only help its cause.

To reach escape velocity, Litecoin must go above R3 and flip the resistance into support.

Bottom Line

Large cap altcoins such as Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and Monero showed some life over the weekend. Most of them are currently correcting after strong rallies. Should the levels discussed hold, then these alts may generate stronger rallies towards the end of the week.

 

NOTE: a satoshi is the smallest unit of Bitcoin, which equals to 0.00000001 BTC.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.8 stars on average, based on 311 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

3 Things You Need to Know About the Market Today

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1, Pound Resumes Rally on Strong Employment Report

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Great British Pound reacted well to the likely delay of the Brexit process in recent weeks, and today the currency defied the risk-off shift and rallied back towards the 1.30 level against the USD. The better than expected British Employment Report, which showed the strongest wage growth in a decade, outpacing inflation despite the long-term weakness of the Pound.

While the currency gained ground, British equities followed the global trends and finished lower, threatening with a resumption of the broader declining trend. All eyes are still on the Brexit saga, but should the extended deadline scenario prevail, the short-term bullish trend could continue in the pair, even as traders should keep the considerable event risk in mind when trading the Pound-related pairs.

2, Oil and Stocks Slide as Risk Assets Suffer amid Renewed Trade Worries

Johnson & Johnson, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the losses in risk assets have been limited yesterday, due, in part at least, to the US bank holiday, today, we saw heavy selling across the board. Oil ran into a wall near the resistance zone that we pointed out yesterday, and the crucial commodity fell back to a $52 per barrel handle with regards to the WTI contract.

Stocks got hit hard on reports that this week’s round of meetings between the senior US and Chinese officials has been canceled, with the issues of Intellectual Property and deeper Chinese economic reforms being behind the setback. We argued several times that these ‘soft’, hard to control issues are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, even in the case of a formal agreement, so while we expect wild swings on trade-related headlines, the structural, credit-related issues will drive Chinese assets.

3, Johnson & Johnson Misses on Guidance Despite Earnings Beat

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The pressure on stocks intensified following Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) earnings report, with the 2019 guidance disappointing investors. While the previous quarter was a positive surprise from the healthcare giant, as far as the bottom line is concerned, the outlook for the consumer segment cast a shadow on the broader market even as the company’s core Pharmaceutical business continues to shine.

Shares of the company are down by around 2%, and after the closing bell, IBM’s (IBM) report will be in focus, as the struggling tech giant will also report earnings. IBM has seen its share price cut in half as its growth stalled in recent years, and even a small positive surprise could propel the stock higher following the market-wide decline of the recent months, but it’s unlikely that the broader downtrend will be broken anytime soon.

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Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 445 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Goldman Sachs: Even a $7.50B Fine Can’t Take Them Down

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

Last week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) published its Q4 earnings report, in which the main financial indicators exceeded all analysts’ expectations.

The net profit amounted to $2.54B, well above expectations of $1.78B; the revenue reached $8.12B compared with a forecast of $7.5B; finally, the net interest income rose to $898M versus an expected $758M.

The chart shows that Goldman Sachs’ revenues always exceeded the forecast figures. In 2017, the forecasts were quite conservative, with the actual results not much different. In 2018 this bias was already smaller. Based on the data from the chart, one can conclude that 2018 was not the best year for the bank, with revenues falling as predicted, which led to a share price fall, too. Over 2018, the stock lost almost 45% of its value.

Early in the year, the stock was still near the historical highs; then, after the Q1 report release, the price went down, as the report showed worse figures than expected.

Now, the price is increasing sharply, bouncing off its lows. Investors tend to first pay attention to the expected figures, especially if the company has been operating in the market for a long time. In such situations, news has a short-term impact on the price, as this has may times stood the test of time. Goldman Sachs was no exception.

The news on the Malaysian scandal, which broke out in 2015, is still here to stay. The Malaysian authorities accuse bank representatives of bribing officials to get an order for bond placement in 2012-2013. The revenues from those bonds, i.e. $6.5B, were just taken away, without any hint on using them for the local investment. In response, Goldman Sachs pointed out that the bonds were placed for the purpose of raising money for Malaysia, but instead part of the funds was stolen by members of the Malaysian government. As it turned out, the then Prime Minister of Malaysia, Najib Razak, was indeed found to have $681M in his accounts. This was a dead end, however, and indeed officials were very unlikely to punish themselves. Now, when Razak lost the election, the new government launched an anti-corruption investigation and Najib Razak was accused of money laundering, while Goldman Sachs was also charged.

In mid 2015, the stock actually declined, which lasted about a year. Overall, the fall was 37%, but then Goldman was out of the Malaysian scandal and media spoke about corruption in the Asian country. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, people knew very few things, as the media was tightly controlled by the government, and those who dared to report it were immediately closed. As such, The Insider, a Malaysian media, was closed after the very first publication of the article hinting on government corruption.

Therefore, linking the stock decline to the scandal does not work. However, if you follow the chart of the company’s revenues, you’ll understand what really happened.

The chart shows that the revenue forecast for the second quarter of 2015 was already declining, and when the Q2 real income was less than the previous one, both the stock and the prediction went down. Thus, the price directly responded to the decline in forecast indicators for revenues, and the news factor here had virtually no effect on the stock.

In 2016, the stock started recovering with the expectations also going higher. Therefore, the current growth in the value of the stock is directly related to the expectations of the growth of Goldman Sachs earnings in Q1 2019.

As for the possible fine, David Solomon, the Goldman Sachs CEO, decided to play it safe: the bank has already started accumulating money for it.

Technically, on W1 the stock is quite weak, being under 200-day moving average, but in spite of this, there’s still an uptrend, as the MA is going up.

When the stock fell down to its lows at $160, the volume increased drastically, which is one of the most evident signs of a reversal. This will be further confirmed once the 200-day MA gets broken out and the price stays above. But since the price went up sharply from its lows and increased for 4 weeks in a row, a small correction may happen as well.

The price may bounce off the 200-day MA and fall back to $190, after which the rise may resume.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboMarkets shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 26 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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Altcoins

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Sellers are Stepping Up Downside Pressure; Explosive Breakout is Imminent

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  • ETH/USD is very much close to a breakout of the recent range-block formation.
  • Diar reports that on-chain transaction value on the Ethereum network was seen at an all-time-high in December 2018.

Over the past three sessions for ETH/USD, a pick-up in downside intensity has been demonstrated by the market bears. The price had been moving within a narrowing range-block formation for going on 12 sessions, but this appears to be coming to an end. Sellers are stepping up the pressure, looking for a breakout of the sideways movement seen of late.

Ethereum On-chain Transaction Value at All-Time-High

Source – Diar

Diar in their latest report detailed that on-chain transaction value hit an all-time-high on the Ethereum network. Diar provide weekly institutional publications in addition to data analysis of digital currencies. Further within this latest publication, the on-chain transaction levels had hit 115 million in December 2018. This marked an all-time high, which excludes the activity after a hard fork caused by the DAO hack in 2016.

In terms of monetary value, Diar stated that the total US dollar value on-chain last year was seen at $815 million. This was down from the previous $1.1 billion, reported in 2017. As a result, this was a 97% drop in the on-chain transaction value. The drop from peak in January versus December 2018 was “by and large the cause of an 80% drop in Ethereum’s price”.

Commenting on fees, Diar detailed that they are unlikely to have been a laggard on the growth for the Ethereum network. It already has some of the lowest fees that are observed for transacting on-chain. They added, “the Constantinople upgrade, now pushed back, will bring down fees a great deal further for certain types of transactions that would allow for better storage use”.

Technical Review – ETH/USD

ETH/USD daily chart.

Key daily support eyed around $117.50 has been penetrated in the past few sessions. Signs are starting to show of a gradual shift again in favor of a bearish bias. The price is running towards its third consecutive session in the red, with the critical support earlier detailed under threat. ETH/USD did have a quick spike of around 15% lower on 20th January before retracing back within the range-block. A firm breach and close of the mentioned $117.50, the lower part of the range-block, could be punishing. Eyes will then be on a retest of the big psychological $100 mark.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 112 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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