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Cryptocurrency: The Buzz Is Definitely Back

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Yesterday, I tried to make the case for investors keeping their expectations in check. After an amazing performance in April, it is only reasonable to expect crypto markets to take a pause.  Just for fun, let’s pretend that my cautious attitude turns out to be completely wrong. In other words, what are some of the things that could surprise us in the crypto world that could driving prices significantly higher?  Here are a few possibilities.

Stock Market Jitters Intensify

The stock market has been a complete dud this year.  Yes, the tech heavy Nasdaq is up a smidgen. Interestingly enough, investors don’t seem to mind all that much.  After peaking at 36.65 on Groundhog Day, the VIX is now hovering around the 16 level. For all its flaws, the VIX is one of the better measures of investor anxiety.  So, for the moment investors are calm, but that could change.

So if investor fears rise and they begin searching for a place to hide, crypto could well benefit. Here is what is going on at this moment that could scare stock investors. Inflation is exceeding Fed targets of 2%.  The all items index rose 2.4% for the 12 months ending March, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending March 2017 and higher than the 1.6% average annual rate over the past ten years.

Here is the key point.  In four of the last eight months, the Consumer Price Index has averaged a 5.1% increase – that is way more than the Fed has in mind.  More of this kind of action will send the Fed into prevention mode, raising interest rates.

This is the question on everyone’s mind.  How much can interest rate increase before investors get nervous and stock prices fall?  If you look closely at stock averages in 2018, it has already begun.

Cryptocurrencies represent a non correlated asset class, meaning what happens to bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and others is independent of other asset classes like stocks, bonds and real estate.

Bond Market Bombs Could Explode

Bonds may be great for retirement planning but otherwise, they are a total bore. Their redeeming merit rests in the message told by the shape of the yield curve.  Without getting into lots of academic nonsense, the steeper the yield curve, the more confidence bond investors have about the future.

Right now the yield curve is as flat as it has been in quite a while. Bond investors have their eyes on inflation.  There is no consensus on what the cost of living will be ten years from now. This adds risk to bonds.

If the need to control higher inflation forces the Fed to raise rates, that could put the kibosh on bonds.  The Federal Reserve is currently in the process of unloading trillions of bonds purchased during the years of Quantitative Easing.  So skeptics will argue that raising interest rates would be self destructive.

This is a valid point but the Fed’s dilemma creates uncertainty and that spells investor anxiety.  Cryptocurrencies could spell anxiety relief.

Hyperbole Returns To Draw Headlines

As predictable as spring tulips, wildly optimistic forecasts for crypto are back with us. Not in my most fun fantasy did I expect this to happen so soon.  Here is a headline from today’s Cointelegraph.com:

 Reddit Co-Founder Says Ethereum Price Will Reach $15,000 This Year

According to Alexis Ohanian, “At the end of the year, bitcoin will be at $20,000 and Ethereum will be at $15,000. Great, now people can call me out if I’m wrong.” He said that he’s bullish on ETH because “people are actually building on it.”

It Could Happen

So, even though keeping expectations in check is the best idea after April, a surprise on the upside isn’t ridiculous.  If this sounds like a hedge on my bet, you are probably right. My only defense is the either way, the buzz is back in cryptocurrencies and that is altogether good.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Zcash Price Analysis: $100 Bargain Buying

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  • ZEC/USD is running at four consecutive daily sessions closing in the red.
  • Chunky buying interest looks healthy within the $100 price region.

ZEC/USD is currently stuck within a very stubborn bearish trend, as seen across the crypto market wide. Several key areas have been breached, however the ZEC/USD bulls are heavily defending vital support territories. The price is running at its fourth consecutive session in the red, having lost over 25% within this trading period.

Recent Bull Failure

As covered in the previous article, the bulls were penetrating near-term stubborn resistance, seen just above $140 territory. Six solid sessions, ZEC/USD had tried to break above, but very much so failed, as a result, the price headed deeply south. Large spikes in volumes were seen with the move lower. It was forced to its lowest levels in over nine weeks.

Downside Targets

ZEC/USD daily chart

First of all, looking to the downside, there is much cover in terms of safety nets for the falling price. Chunky areas of demand are seen tracking from $108 all the way down to $96. In the latest moves lower, buyers have heavy defended a total free-fall. The mentioned demand region did prove its reliability back in the middle of September, during a heavy bear market.

ZEC/USD weekly chart

Observations from the weekly chart look potentially dangerous, should the bearish momentum maintain its current course. A firm breach through the $100 buying area could be devastating. The next firm area, given this is very much uncharted, can be seen at the round $90 level, which is a weekly support area. Further to the downside, $75 is the next target. This is a consolidation area, which was seen prior to the chunky bull run from the back end of April to June.

Above all, price behavior still points to further potential heavy moves lower. Following the weighted pressure on Wednesday and Thursday, price action has stabilized, trading in a consolidation nature. The range has narrowed, moving within $114 – 107. As a result, the current formation can be perceived as a bearish flag pattern, which is subject to extended moves south.

ZEC/USD 4-hour chart

Upside Targets

The $100 territory is very much attractive, as detailed above, historically for buyers. Should bullish momentum kick in around these levels, there is opportunity for a strong upside run. The ZEC/USD bulls will need to retest $140 area; given the number of times this has been tested, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a fast breach. Finally, looking further north, $160 could come quickly into play, high area of early September.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 54 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Litecoin Price Analysis: LTC/USD Has Fallen Through Vital Support; Where Next?

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  • Critical support for LTC/USD was breached just under the $50 area, leaving the door open to further downside pressure.
  • LTC/USD is moving within a range/consolidation block, subject to another explosive move.

LTC/USD has remained firmly within a downside trend, showing no signs of that shifting anytime soon. Out of the last ten sessions, LTC/USD has closed on the daily in the red for nine of those. Litecoin having lost as much as 27% within this trading period, a move which is generally inline with the rest of the greater market. The focus is now on where LTC/USD will find its feet on some firm ground.

Daily Chart View

LTC/USD daily chart

Looking via the daily time frame, the price has extended through a known touted demand area. This was seen tracking from the big psychological $50 mark, down to $47.50. LTC/USD has previously been comforted by this zone on several occasions. It proved support in August, September and October. This area has always having proven to see decent buyers come in to send the price back on its way north.

4-Hour Chart View

LTC/USD 4-hour chart

Current price behavior remains somewhat worrying via the 4-hour, after the deep drop, LTC/USD has entered a small range block. It is currently licking its wounds, following the bears vicious attack. The price is moving tightly, between $45.00 to $42.50 at the time of writing. Given this technical move being observed, it would not be too surprising if this takes another stab lower. Typically range blocks tend to be broken in an explosive manner.

Next Major Support Areas

LTC/USD weekly chart

The weekly chart view can provide some insight into downside levels to be aware of. In terms of support, the next major level would be eyed at $38 territory. The price has not been seen here since July 2017. LTC/USD had bounced around this area for 7 weeks, between 19th June to 31st July. This move was being observed during a period of consolidation, prior to the big bull run seen in August 2017.

Deeper to the downside, eyes would then be on $33 another vital weekly support level. Price last bounced here in September 2017, requiring support before resuming a bull run. A breach here could be very much catastrophic. There isn’t much support, other than psychological round number areas for LTC/USD. This fall to the downside is very much uncharted territory. If the bearish momentum retains its current course, then $20 or even a return to $10 cannot be ruled out.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 54 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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TRON Price Analysis: TRX/USD Moves Within Proven Buying Area

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  • TRX/USD flirting with a huge buying area, historically proven to see buyers swoop in.
  • Justin Sun sings praises on 100 million $TRX trading volume for Tron DEX.

TRX/USD has been suffering heavily, in line with a large bearish reversal seen across the board. The price is running sharply lower, closing on the daily in the red. After TRX/USD had broken out to the downside from a supporting ascending trend line and retested, selling pressure has been consistent. Within the current trend, the price today – Thursday 15th November, was forced to drop to its lowest level seen in around nine weeks.

TRON News Flow

The TRON foundation has not been shy on the update front of late, continuing to push out positive developments from the camp. It was only recent that a new Tron decentralized exchange, DEX was launched.  Over the past few days it has seen a large amount of popularity. Tronscan.org was acknowledged by Tron’s founder, Justin Sun, via Twitter, which heavily contributed to a further pick up in trading volumes.

Justin Sun tweeted, “trx.market  breaks 100 million $TRX trading volume! Next milestone is 500 million”. The founder continues to be very much supportive of these TRON based projects, given his active recognition via social media. Despite the protracted bear market, Sun disregarded this in a recent tweet, showing a screenshot of the double-digit losses seen on Wednesday across the crypto market. He then quite comically compared the Coinmarketcap view with the Tron DEX, showing TRX related pairs trading in the green.

Technical Review – TRX/USD

TRX/USD daily chart

The TRX/USD bears have in the session been testing a vital area of demand. This is seen tracking from $0.01800 down to 0.01700. Previously in August and September, the mentioned area provided firm support in propping up the price. Most recently, the price had dipped into this territory on 12th September, where TRX/USD gradually went on to gain over 60%. Earlier, on August 14th, buyers pilled in, seeing the price gradually gaining over 70% over a period of time.

Given the history of buyers camped in this area, bulls should come back into play imminently. If this does prove to be the case for TRX/USD, eyes will be on another retest of the broken ascending trend line. This is seen tracking around $0.02550. The bears had initially breached this area of support, on 29th October. TRX/USD was supported in its move higher, from 12th September, by this trend line, before the break lower.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 54 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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