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Crypto Speculation, Credit Imbalances to Shadow U.S. Economy in 2018: Goldman Sachs

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The U.S. economy will shift into higher gear next year, but financial imbalances in the credit markets and cryptocurrencies could weigh on an otherwise robust outlook, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Jan Hartzius.

10 Questions for 2018

In a newly released report, the Goldman analyst predicted faster economic growth and lower unemployment for 2018, but said crypto market speculation could become a major source of instability.

“Asset valuations in some areas – especially credit – have risen to high levels by historical standards,” Hatzius said in the “10 Questions for 2018” report issued Friday. “While we have not seen the type of large credit expansions that would be most worrisome for [Federal Reserve] officials concerned about financial imbalances, there are now some signs of speculative behavior in financial markets, e.g. the cryptocurrency boom.”

Among Hartzius’ more concrete predictions were GDP growth of 2.6% and an unemployment rate of 3.5%. The U.S. economy expanded more than 3% annually in each of the past two quarters, marking the fastest six months of expansion in three years. For November, the jobless rate was unchanged at 4.1%, a level that is generally consistent with the Fed’s definition of full employment. Core inflation and average wage growth are also projected to rise compared to this year.

2017: The Year Cryptos Went Mainstream

It’s not difficult to see why Goldman Sachs is concerned about the crypto market’s valuation. Bitcoin peaked near $20,000 earlier this month, a 20-fold increase compared to the start of the year. Assets such as Ripple XRP have gained more than 30,000% this year.

Mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies has nurtured an industry now valued at more than $600 billion. The growth and widespread adoption of initial coin offerings (ICOs) – a controversial crowdfunding model that allows businesses to raise capital by issuing cryptocurrencies – suggests the market still has room to grow. ICOs have raised more than $5 billion this year, compared to just $90 million in all of 2016.

Bitcoin’s most ardent supporters believe institutional adoption of the asset class will take the market even higher in the short term. Investors Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss believe bitcoin will increase another 20 times from levels seen this month.

“We think bitcoin is gold 2.0,” Cameron told Fox Business earlier this month. “It’s a store of value, so today it’s about a $US300 billion market cap, gold is at $US6 trillion, so we think it could very well go up another 20 times from today.”

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 664 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Cardano Price Analysis: ADA/USDT Smashes Out of Wedge, but Saved by Critical Demand Zone

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  • ADA/USDT testing a huge area of demand and a breach by the bears could be catastrophic.
  • Cardano Foundation confirm reshuffle, as Michael Parsons, the former chairman, steps down.

ADA/USDT has continued to be victim of downside pressure after its latest bull run. The price had gained a chunky 20%, between 31st October and 6th November. ADA/USDT managed to peak just above $0.08200 territory. This was the highest level seen since 15th October. Shortly after, gradual selling started to take place, to then see all the gains plus much more taken by the heavy bears.  It appears current bull runs are not sustainable, very much vulnerable to being sold- particularly as these tend to happen in an explosive manner within a short time frame.

Cardano News Flow

Cardano this week made an announcement that Michael Parsons, the former chairman, has resigned from his position at the Cardano Foundation. Prior to this rapid departure, there had been much history of community members demanding for him to be removed. The position will be filled by the Council Member Pascal Schmid, a University of St. Gallen graduate and a financial expert. Cardano’s creator, Charles Hoskinson, accused the foundation and Parsons of neglecting their duties, in addition to bringing in close friends and family into top positions within the organization.

Technical Review – ADA/USDT

ADA/USDT daily chart

ADA/USDT is running at three consecutive sessions in the red- a move which is inline with the broader market, a mass cooling across all major cryptocurrencies. The price was forced to drop a hefty 13% in the late part of the session on Wednesday. Price action was initially moving within a wedge pattern. This had been the case since the back end of September. ADA/USDT was contained within this formation.  Given the noted heavy selling pressure that was seen across the market late Wednesday, the lower trend line of the wedge was forced to give way to sellers.

Looking to the downside, ADA/USDT has been saved from further declines thanks to a critical demand zone. The area is seen tracking from $0.07000 down to $0.06000. It has proven to see strong buyers swoop in. The price last traded down here between 12-18th September. Buyers kicked in to then drive ADA/USDT to the north, seeing gains just shy of some 50%. The bulls were able to run the price up to $0.09500 into a known supply area. A peak was seen, and this rally was then gradually sold.

Should the above-mentioned demand area fail to hold and see a daily close below, it could be catastrophic. A development such as described, could leave the door wide open to a fresh wave of heavy selling.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 50 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Monero Price Analysis: XMR/USD Bulls Eyeing Explosive Move Out of Current Range Block

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  • XMR/USD is moving within a range block, having been stuck within for the past 5 weeks, subject to a breakout.
  • Buying pressure would likely be triggered above $115 and heavy sellers below $100. 

XMR/USD has been trading steadily for going on five weeks now, moving within a $15 range. The price has produced a bottom at the psychological $100 level. The top observed at $115. Therehas been a lack of excessive volatility observed in either direction, for the time being. This price behaviour is coming despite the breakout of a key supporting trend line. It had been providing comfort initially since mid-August, until the breach and retest between 7-11 October.

Monero Related News Flow

Noriel Roubini, also known as Dr Doom, recently further spread FUD within the market. This week, the economist via Twitter, was speaking on anonymity and how the FEDs are coming for Monero. “So much for privacy, anonymity & censorship resistance: there is NO anonymity in crypto. Law enforcement authorities prefer transactions on crypto because it is easier to trace transactions & who is behind them than in banks.  Wake up crypto zealots. & Feds will crack Monero too.”

This isn’t the first time the economist has expressed his strong dissatisfaction for the cryptocurrency market in general. Last month, he was speaking at a hearing to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking. During this him testifying, he noted, “Crypto is the mother or father of all scams and bubbles.” He was very much doing his best to try and sound the alarms to the committee on the market in general.

Technical Review – XMR/USD

XMR/USD daily chart

As earlier mentioned, a range block has been formed within the past five weeks of trading. Given this current form, a breakout would be expected to be imminent. Looking via the daily chart view, for now it remains unclear, in terms of next direction. The move will likely be chunky, it is just as matter of where. What can be noted is that the current bottom of the range is observed at $100, any break lower here, would likely be a huge incentive for sellers.

Should a breach occur at the psychological $100 mark, a very forceful push lower would likely be seen. The next major area of support is observed down at $85-75 range, where a demand zone is sitting. This last came into action on 14th August, after heavy selling pressure hit XMR/USD from the back end of July. The price had dropped a whopping 48%, over that period, falling from around $149 down to $76 territory.

Looking to the upside, buyers would likely apply heavy pressure should a breakout be seen from the upper part of the mentioned range. This would be a breach of $115, opening the door for a retest of the breached ascending trend line. An initial target would be seen at $140, then further north, $145-150 range. This area is a known supply zone, XMR/USD has not been convincingly above here since June.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 50 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Subject to an Extended Breakout Higher

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  • ETH/USD price action has formed a bullish pennant via the 4-hour chart view.
  • Ethereum network hard fork scheduled for January 16th 2019, but still subject to potential change.

ETH/USD price action has cooled since the recent bull run. This isn’t too surprising given the fast gains seen initially and the touted profit-taking following the explosive move north. A technical move appears to be the case across much of the market. Price action looking ready to breakout again.

Ethereum News Flow

The developers at Ethereum have now set a new date of January 16th, 2019, for their scheduled hard fork of the Ethereum network. This came at the back end of last week, on their bi-weekly call, where they discuss anything relating to the blockchain technology.

It was detailed that this agreement made via the call was non-binding verbal, leaving room for that date to still be moved, should any issues or problems come to light. Hacked’s Sam Bourgi covered in a recent crypto market update.

As covered in October via Hacked, Ethereum’s software upgrade saw a failure. The hard fork that they had been working on did not activate on their test network Ropson. This was largely anticipated to have been activated in November. As a result, they were forced to delay.

Technical Review – ETH/USD

ETH/USD daily chart

ETH/USD price action has been cooling, after failing to break above vital resistance seen around $220-225. This is in proximity to the 61.8% Fibonacci. Over 6% has been lost after the decent advances seen from 30th October, breaking out from pennant pattern.

The price was initially contained within the mentioned pattern since September. Bulls however gained some upside momentum at the back-end of October, seeing a breakout to the upside. ETH/USD had gained over 15%, up to the high print on 7th November, just above $225.

At present ETH/USD is somewhat magnetized to the 50% Fibonacci, hovering around the $210 price area. Clearly it has re-entered consolidation mode after the surge higher last week. This type of behavior is typically seen following on from explosive moves.

4-hour Chart View

ETH/USD 4-hour chart

Looking via the 4-hour chart breakdown, given as mentioned above, the current consolidation state, a bullish set up has formed. A bullish pennant pattern, as a result of the cooling from the high area on 7th November has formed.

Near-term resistance is eyed between $214-215, the upper trend line of the pennant. A breach above, will likely see a retest of the 7th November high. Further north, a strong area of supply can be seen running from $230-235.

ETH/USD faltered in the above supply area on several occasions, from 27th September up until 10th October. Lastly, in terms of upside, $250 would be a target for the bulls. The price hasn’t been up at these heights since 21st September, where it encountered strong sellers.

To the downside, immediate support is eyed around $210-208, the lower trend line of the pennant pattern. Any breach here, could very well see a fast move back down sub $200, buyers are seen around $195.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 50 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

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