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Crypto Pullback – Where’s the Support?

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Looks like we have some panic selling on the top cryptos this morning.

Ripple has slipped below support of $1.5 per XRP and bitcoin has just fallen through $12,000.

The reason for the sell-off is not quite clear but we can see reduced volumes from Japan and South Korea who are usually the ones doing the heavy buying in this market.

In today’s market webinar we’re going to talk about where might be a good place to buy this dip and how to position your portfolio during this kind of pullback.

The webinar will be at 15:00 GMT and is open to everyone.

https://register.gotowebinar.com/rt/1157869693061562371

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Good Returns
  • Swiss Depreciation
  • Crypto Pullback – How low can you go?

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of January 16th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional markets

Today investors on Wall Street will be coming back from their long weekend in a particularly good mood. The stocks have been flying in Asia so far this year and the Europeans have done a good job recouping the losses from December.

Wall Street herself has been having a record year so far so as long as these trends continue…

Even the bond market, which gave us a bit of a fright last week seems to be cooling down. The US 20 year treasuries have found support at 122.5 and are now holding near their yearly average price.

Swiss Event Today

Thomas Jordan rarely moves the markets but when he does, he does big. Today he will be speaking at the University of Zurich and delivering a speech about how money is created. A subject I’m sure we all would like to know more about.

No doubt he’ll be talking about how the central banks of the world have increased the amount of money in the system over the last decade and how the local banks have leveraged this money.

What he probably should be talking about is how to reduce the money supply from a system that is flooded with capital.

We’ll be watching his speech today with great interest, which will take place at 18:00 Swiss time. Just after our webinar. 😉

For reference, here’s a chart of the Euro against the Swiss Franc. Just about every large movement on this chart, and there are quite a few notable ones, have been created by Mr. Jordan. So it pays to pay attention to what he says.

The Crypto Pullback

The pullback seems to be coming from a lack of volumes in Asia. Cryptotraders in Japan and South Korea tend to dominate this market but so far this year have been notably silent.

Reports from Bloomberg of a further crackdown in China are not helping things but the real story here is Japan.

Japan was the first country in the world to fully legalize bitcoin as a currency last March and investments in BTC have reportedly raised the countries GDP significantly. The digital currency frenzy is also making a blockbuster entrance into Japanese Pop Culture with the new girl band…

So to see Japanese Bitcoin volumes of just 11% of the market at 18:00 Tokyo time is kind of odd.

My best guess is that Japanese and Korean traders are simply tired of paying the premium and are waiting for the market to even out. The price per bitcoin in these two countries is usually more than 25% above the prices in the West. So they might just be taking a step back, waiting for the FUD to blow over and get a better entry price.

The issue is that the markets have gone up so quickly that they didn’t have enough time to build in proper support. Here we can see that bitcoin does have some temporary support at the moment but if it does fall through it we could easily find ourselves below $10,000 pretty quickly and that’s a scary thought for some.

Whatever is causing this pullback it is making a lot of people nervous, which is why we should always remember that even though crypto has been the best performing asset class in history over the last year it’s still incredibly risky. No doubt many will see this dip as an excellent opportunity to get in but anybody who bought at the top is not doing well at the moment.

Hope to see you in the webinar. Let’s have an awesome day ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation. The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro. Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose. Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 121 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. mkyle13

    January 17, 2018 at 10:31 am

    I clicked the webinar link but it took me to a recording. Is there live one today?

    Thanks,

    Matt

  2. BAGGYSPORT

    January 17, 2018 at 10:36 am

    at last someone trying give a clear reason why this dip in prices.
    well written, thanks

  3. ggonzaga

    January 17, 2018 at 4:57 pm

    I am unable to attend the webinar, but I am interested in the content. Is there any way I can see the recording later today? Please let me know if anyone can help.

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Altcoins

Augur (REP) Backtracks to 16-Month Lows; Aurora (AOA) Falls Away

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Augur (REP) fell 24% throughout Tuesday on its way to a token valuation last seen in April of last year. Daily volumes have halved for the decentralized prediction market platform as today’s sell-off accelerates the process that began on August 7th with the Bitcoin drop-off.

Augur Backtracks to April 2017

In one of the most elongated price reversals in the market cap top one hundred, Augur has gone beyond mere yearly lows in its descent to the price of $15.16, recorded just a few hours ago. That’s down from the daily high of $19.96 recorded 24 hours ago – it has been nothing but descent for Augur since then.

The weekly numbers look no better, with 42% losses for the week. The month looks much better in comparison, with 46% losses over thirty days, thus showing the extent of just how bad this past week has been. A rebound is being attempted at the time of writing, as the price pushes back up to the $15.30 range.

Augur made a splash in the daily news cycle in recent weeks with its assassination markets – a feature open to be used, or created by any user on the Augur platform. The heat died down after the initial splash, which saw around $1.5 million worth of bets placed on various markets.

Sudden Influx From Korea

After seeing no more than a $3-$5 million daily volume for the entire week, Augur suddenly felt a sudden influx of $60 million on August 13th. The volume peaked overnight at $61 million before a massive reduction sent it back down to $27 million from which it continues to fall.

Right now, $23 million of that sum is coming from REP/KRW trades emanating from Bithumb – that’s 81.5% of the daily volume. The subsequent REP price on Bithumb has climbed as high as $167, although that price has been excluded from CMC’s readings.

Aurora Falls Off

The worst losses for the day have come from Aurora (AOA) which is down 45% at the time of writing. Aurora has been sinking all week long to the tune of 66% losses over seven days.

Aurora was listed on Kucoin in June, and has been hailed (by some) as (yet another) contender for Ethereum’s crown as king of the dApps. But besides a recently launched bug bounty program not much seems to be happening over at Aurora at the moment.

While it’s fun to speculate on why Aurora has taken the worst of the hit, it may have something to do with the fact that it is only available for trading on one exchange – the aforementioned Kucoin. Today on Kucoin AOA/ETH trades were the most popular; perhaps a sign that the current low Ethereum prices proved more attractive than holding onto AOA for any longer.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 37 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Altcoins

The Long-Awaited Altcoin Extinction Event May Be Near

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The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a major paradigm shift as low-quality altcoins embark on a mass extinction event, according to Xapo President Ted Rogers.This view, which is shared by industry titans like Vitalik Buterin, suggests things will get a lot worse before they get better.

Mass Extinction

In a Monday tweet, Rogers warned that more than 90% of altcoins and tokens could disappear in the not-too-distant future.

“We could be in the midst of the extinction-level event for “cryptoassets” that many maximalists have predicted. 90%+ of CoinMarketCap list will disappear eventually – might as well happen now.  Meantime, lower BTC price means incredible opportunity to buy more bitcoin,” he said.

Rogers’ tweet echoes previous comments by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, who believes that 90% of tokens listed on CoinMarketCap will go to zero. Buterin made the comments back in October during the historic run-up in cryptocurrency prices.

Whereas Buterin emphasized the emergence of higher quality coin offerings following a mass-scale correction, Rogers believes now is the ideal time to buy more bitcoin. The leading digital currency continues to cannibalize altcoins with its share of the total market crossing 54% on Tuesday.

At the time of writing, there were 1,833 cryptocurrencies listed on CoinMarketCap. A couple hundred were added to the website’s tracker in the last few weeks.

ICO Cash-Out?

Crypto assets have shed roughly $220 billion over the past three months and are trading at less than a quarter of their all-time highs. Although the recent meltdown originated last Tuesday when the SEC communicated its non-decision on the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin ETF, the extent of the selloff suggests there are other factors in play.

With the bulk of the declines concentrated in altcoins and tokens, many are blaming the latest rout on a large-scale cashout of initial coin offerings (ICOs). This has direct implications on Ethereum, which is one of the most important bellwethers of the ICO market.

The ether price has experienced an unprecedented drop over the past seven days, losing more than a third of its value to trade at its lowest level in 14 months. Previously, the developer’s cryptocurrency had shown resilience in the face of broader market moves.

While ICOs have raised more than $6.6 billion this year, investors appear to be selling too early. Short holding periods are placing significant pressure on the market.

Although the path forward is paved with uncertainty, a structural shift in the ICO market will ultimately benefit cryptocurrencies. As Buterin said last October, “there are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there’s a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well.” Cleaning up this image is a good thing even with the accompanying pain it has produced.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 544 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Altcoins

XRP Price Plunges Again; Down 93% from Record High 

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Ripple’s XRP fell on Tuesday to its lowest level of the year, highlighting collective panic in the cryptocurrency market following last week’s non-decision by the SEC concerning a highly touted bitcoin ETF. Although XRP’s losses aren’t unique, the so-called banker’s cryptocurrency is among the biggest losers in the top-ten.

XRP/USD Price Update

The XRP price fell 13.4% on Tuesday to a new yearly low of $0.262, according to CoinMarketCap. The decline puts XRP back 36% over the past seven days and a whopping 93% from its record high of $3.75.

At present values, XRP has a total market capitalization of $10.3 billion. Bitcoin cash, the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market cap, now trails XRP by less than $2 billion.

XRP’s 24-hour trade volumes amounted to $304 million, with Bitbank processing nearly one-fifth of the turnover.

Market Searches for Direction

As Hacked previously reported, the recent selloff began last Tuesday when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed a ruling on a keenly awaited bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). From there, the market meltdown intensified amid signs that initial coin offerings (ICOs) are cashing out. Ethereum, whose protocol is responsible for at least three-quarters of ICOs, has declined to 14-month lows as a result.

With respect to ICO liquidation, Matthew Newton of eToro summed up the situation:

“The crypto market seems to have hit panic mode, with prices falling significantly across the board. As we can see in the case of ethereum, investors seem to be increasing liquidations of their ICO holdings, with significant drops in price and increased volumes.”

XRP’s fate, at least in the short-term, is tied to these broader market forces.

Ripple’s Regulatory Scrutiny

Unlike some of its well-known peers, XRP has faced growing scrutiny from regulators over its potential security status – so much so that Ripple Labs appears to have hired a PR company to remove the term “Ripple XRP” from online sources.

Ripple Labs has made it clear that the San Francisco-based company is not synonymous with the XRP currency, and that ownership of XRP does not give investors ownership rights of Ripple Labs. This is consistent with Hacked’s previous reporting on the matter, which showed the vast majority of Ripple’s business partners have not adopted XRP. In other words, banks and clearing companies have experimented with Ripple’s technology without adopting XRP as a base or quote currency.

On Aug. 11, a California district court dismissed a remand request related to a lawsuit against Ripple Labs by an investor seeking damages over alleged price manipulation. Plaintiff Ryan Coffey, a former XRP investor, was was seeking to keep the case in the state’s lower courts rather than have the final verdict decided by a Federal judge.

The court issued the following statement:

“Having read the papers filed by the parties and carefully considered their arguments and the relevant legal authority, and good cause appearing, the court hereby DENIES plaintiff’s motion.”

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 544 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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