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Crypto Psycho:  Crazy Price Action

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Say what you will about the cryptocurrency bubble of 2017 not making sense, what about the action lately?  Prices are acting terribly. Professor John Griffin claims last year’s bitcoin rally was manufactured by Bitfinex. Economist Nouriel Roubini proclaims bitcoin is going to zero. The founder of Crypto Asset Management says about bitcoin: “We are shorting it like maniacs at the moment.”  If that is not enough, technical indicators keep barking downtrend.

Over the past week already depressed prices have fallen further with things like bitcoin down 14%+, Ethereum 17% and XRP 21%.  Yes, there were those stories about the CFTC digging into price manipulation and demanding more data from Coinbase and other exchanges. And then there was the hack on that small exchange in South Korea.  But nobody could reasonably pin the blame of this week’s performance on these two factors.

MarketWatch quoted Matt Hougan, head of global trading at Bitwise Asset Management: “The big story to me is the absence of positive news”.  There is some truth to this but that is only part of the story. As we pointed out in a recent article, most serious investors in crypto don’t pretend to understand what is causing the mess.  

When bitcoin evangelist Alistair Milne published a survey of his Twitter followers, 81% of them had nary a clue.  Interestingly enough though, almost half of these respondents checked the box “Crypto iz ded”.

What exactly to conclude from this is open to interpretation but one thing is clear.  It is a big part of the problem long term investors face today. Crypto psychology sucks, the worst it has been since the Mt. Gox hack of 2010.

Good News Being Ignored

One of the barriers to progress in the crypto wars was the issue of regulatory clarification. Are cryptocurrencies simply digital assets or a class of securities that fall under the regulation of the Securities and Exchange Commission?

That question has now been answered.  On Thursday, the SEC’s announced that both bitcoin and Ethereum were not securities but digital assets.  However, the good news does not end here.

William Himman, representing the SEC, clarified the position of Initial Coin Offerings.  In cases where the ICO does not convey equity ownership of an enterprise and where the digital asset is sold only to be used to purchase a good or service available through the network on which it was created, it does not qualify as a security.

This represents one huge step forward in clarifying the regulatory environment and yet the markets response was brief and uninspiring as the full week’s performance unfortunately demonstrates. Honestly, this is a bit bizarre.

Other Good News Being Ignored

Crypto Asset Management may be short selling lots of currencies, but they are not alone.  According to www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/usd  margin interest in bitcoin and Ethereum is in excess of $1.2 billion.  While this is down from around $2 billion last December it still represents a sizable pool of future buyers.

It’s In The Mind

For digital asset prices reflect not only investor sentiment but also those who represent ultimate users.  For a digital currency to represent a storehouse of value, it must have public trust. Right now that appears to be at a low.

According to the British publication London Loves Business, the story is pretty clear. Headlines state “71% of the UK public think the value of Bitcoin will either decrease or collapse over the next six months.”  According to LLB,  this represents a 10% fall in investor confidence since the same question was last asked in April’s 2018 poll and a 24% fall in investor confidence from November’s 2017 poll figures.  In other words, the price of bitcoin holds the same implication for investors as it does for potential users.

This Too Shall Pass

Mob psychology often proves wrong and this negative mindset appears to be feeding off of itself right now.  Even one of crypto’s biggest critics Warren Buffett would agree that betting against the mob has been a big part of his investment strategy. At some point the mob will once again be proven wrong when short sellers get spooked and forced to cover positions or value investors will filter over from an overpriced U.S. equity market.  Either way, there is value in the crypto market that has not existed for quite some time. In the end, 71% of the Brits surveyed will be proven wrong also.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Bulls Hunting for a Potential Charge Back Above Broken Critical Trend Line

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  • Tron bulls continue to push the price north maintaining a firmer path of recovery.
  • TRX/USD has gained a significant 10% over the past four sessions, moving to its highest level in five days.

TRX/USD: Recent Price Behavior

The TRX/USD bulls have been enjoying some upside relief over the past few sessions now, picking up much pace in the session on Monday. The price managed to move to its highest level  in over seven sessions. Over the past four days, Tron has gained just shy of 10% as the price looks set for recovery following a breach last week of critical support.

An ascending trend line initially supported TRX/USD to the upside, providing exceptional comfort in its move north. The running support had been in play since the back-end of December 2018; however, after a decent run, the bears managed to force a breach. Sellers were able to regain control after the move below, to then see four consecutive days of selling, dropping around 10% in total.

Between 14-15th February, TRX/USD managed to find its feet after what could have very much been a free-fall to the deep south. Daily support came into play around $0.023550, which has provided needed comfort on several occasions already this side of the year. The recovery has been in play since this decent bounce occurred.

Tron Crypto Card

TRON recently detailed more information about its upcoming crypto card. The date of pre-order for the GRID X BitTorrent crypto card is going to be live on 18th February 18 2019 at 8 PM UTC. The GRID crypto card will be a prepaid card that can be topped with TRX in three amounts of 15,000, 50,000 and 100,000. Holders of the cards will be rewarded with BitTorrent (BTT) tokens as part of monthly BTT airdrops.

GRID will be one of two crypto cards built via the Tron network. The first, TronCard, was introduced as a tangible TRX wallet. Both TRX and TRC10 tokens can be stored on the TronCard similarly to a virtual wallet. These mentioned tokens are tokenized assets which would be leveraged via decentralized applications (dApps) via the Tron Network. A QR code feature can also be scanned by users for access to the public key. A physical card will then be able to integrate with the virtual wallet.

Technical Review – TRX/USD

TRX/USD daily chart.

The major challenge for the bulls as detailed above is seen underneath the breached ascending trend line; this is tracking at around $0.027500. Should the bulls manage to break back above this prior acting support, then expect a strong wave of buying pressure to come into play. Further to the north, eyes will be on the $0.03000 area. TRX/USD has not comfortably traded above this price region since August 2018. Once broken down, there isn’t too much in the way of a return back up to $0.04000 territory.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 124 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Cue the Crypto Recovery: Coins Surge $9 Billion Overnight as Ethereum, EOS Break Out

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Cryptocurrencies broke out of their narrow trading range on Monday and were on track to finally snap a four-month losing streak as bitcoin and its altcoin peers surged to their highest levels since early January.

Crypto Coins Surge

The top 40 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization reported gains through the early part of the session on Monday. Among the majors, Ethereum surged 14.8% to $144.65, its highest since Jan. 9. As we reported over the weekend, ether is benefiting from renewed optimism tied to its upcoming Constantinople hard fork.

The EOS price climbed 14.2% to $3.21. That was the highest since November.

Bitcoin cash also registered double-digit gains, climbing 10.7% to $134.61.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, rose 5.8% to $3,836.51. Read more: Bitcoin Surges to Five-Week High; Crypto Bulls Reignite?

XRP reached $0.3159, having gained 5.2%. Litecoin extended its multi-week rally, climbing 7.8% to $46.48.

Tron, Stellar and Binance Coin all rose by at least 4.1%, according to CoinMarketCap.

Beyond the top-ten, Marker surged 10.2% to $573.80. In doing os, it toppled NEO and Ethereum Classic in the crypto-market index.

The combined value of all cryptocurrencies improved to $129.7 billion, having gained $9 billion since Sunday. Trade volumes jumped more than 40% to $28.6 billion.

Volumes and Fundamentals

Crypto markets as a whole are riding a four-month losing streak, but for bitcoin the skid stretches back all the way to six months. That’s the longest string of consecutive losses in its ten-year history.

Consecutive months of rising trade volumes are finally beginning to translate into higher prices. The number of bitcoins in circulation has been rising steadily since the summer, a trend that is positively correlated with increased volatility. Since October, coin circulation and trading volumes have been increasing more rapidly as long-dormant accounts became active once again.

Related: Bitcoin Likely Headed Lower as Whales Activate Long-Dormant Accounts.

Initially, it was feared that many of these suddenly active accounts would become net sellers. This was certainly the case in November when concerns about the bitcoin cash hard fork triggered a relentless technical selloff in the broader market. But over the past few months, higher trade volumes have not resulted in the same selling pressure as before. In fact, a sharp decline in volatility was also observed during the same period. This low-volatility, high-volume regime is unique for cryptocurrencies.

Fundamentals surrounding cryptocurrencies have also improved since the new year. For bitcoin, this means higher transactions and lower fees. On the adoption front, pension funds and other retirement planners are actively investing into crypto funds. Within traditional finance, JPMorgan Chase & Co has become a firm believer in stablecoins after the bank announced it will launch a new cryptocurrency to ease the time and cost burdens on its $6 trillion payments market.

Check out our latest Week in Review: Jamie Dimon Gets Crypto Fever as JPMorgan Develops Stablecoin; Bitcoin Fundamental Improve.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 771 rated postsChief Editor to Hacked.com and Contributor to CCN.com, Sam Bourgi has spent the past nine years focused on economics, markets and cryptocurrencies. His work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Avid crypto watchers and those with a libertarian persuasion can follow him on twitter at @hsbourgi




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Zcash Price Analysis: ZEC/USD Bears Back in the Driver’s Seat Despite Coinbase Incentive Program Support

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  • ZEC/USD is back within the control of the sellers, as the price has dropped around 9% within the past five sessions.
  • Coinbase announces that Zcash (ZEC) is supported on their learning incentive program. Users can earn $3 worth of ZEC by merely watching educational videos on the privacy coin.

ZEC/USD: Recent Price Action

The Zcash price has been cooling over the past few sessions after the bulls failed to sustain decent upside momentum seen earlier in the month. ZEC/USD has fallen over 9% in the previous five sessions, after hitting $56.75 on 13th February. The mentioned print was the highest seen since 14th January, with the buyers since losing ground.

ZEC/USD was moving within a descending wedge pattern formation; this was observed from 24th December up to the breakout on 8th February. As part of this mentioned push north, the price went on to gain a whopping 15%, rallying for five consecutive sessions. It was the longest run higher that observed since mid-December 2018.

Zcash Added to Coinbase Incentive-Driven Learning Program

U.S cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced Zcash has been added to its incentive program. Users will be able to learn about the privacy-based coin while having the benefit to earn from this program. The reward will be $3 worth of ZEC for watching the educational videos about the cryptocurrency.

Coinbase tweeted from its official account, “Earn $3 worth of Zcash with a new Coinbase Earn opportunity today. Check out the Earn ZEC page to view educational videos about Zcash and earn some along the way!” Users can sign up and start the program to receive their cryptocurrency rewards upon completing the educational series.

The program launched at the back-end of 2018, initially just featuring 0x. Earlier this month, Coinbase added Basic Attention Token (BAT) to the program. Zcash now being the latest is a massive step towards greater global awareness for ZEC by being supported on one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges.

Technical Review – ZEC/USD

ZEC/USD daily chart.

As detailed earlier, the price is heading south, which will likely see the above-detailed descending wedge pattern retested. Support is currently tracking around $47.00, which is where the upper trend line of the descending wedge sits. The mentioned support area coincides with a demand zone, seen from $50.00 down to $46.50. ZEC/USD last traded down at these lows in December 2018, a period when the general market bottomed, after heavy bouts of selling.

Should this support fail to provide necessary comfort, then a strong wave of pressure to the downside may likely be seen. The price may be forced to trade within the complete abyss, an area that has not been observed before. Unknown territory trading is something that is occurring across the industry within this current bear market.

Given the breach of the wedge pattern, there isn’t too much in the way of resistance until the $60 region. A supply zone tracks from $62 up to $65; the price saw several rejections here in January of this year and in December 2018. Further to the north, another likely target would be where the price peaked at the end of 2018, $73.95.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 124 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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