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Crypto Psycho:  Crazy Price Action

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Say what you will about the cryptocurrency bubble of 2017 not making sense, what about the action lately?  Prices are acting terribly. Professor John Griffin claims last year’s bitcoin rally was manufactured by Bitfinex. Economist Nouriel Roubini proclaims bitcoin is going to zero. The founder of Crypto Asset Management says about bitcoin: “We are shorting it like maniacs at the moment.”  If that is not enough, technical indicators keep barking downtrend.

Over the past week already depressed prices have fallen further with things like bitcoin down 14%+, Ethereum 17% and XRP 21%.  Yes, there were those stories about the CFTC digging into price manipulation and demanding more data from Coinbase and other exchanges. And then there was the hack on that small exchange in South Korea.  But nobody could reasonably pin the blame of this week’s performance on these two factors.

MarketWatch quoted Matt Hougan, head of global trading at Bitwise Asset Management: “The big story to me is the absence of positive news”.  There is some truth to this but that is only part of the story. As we pointed out in a recent article, most serious investors in crypto don’t pretend to understand what is causing the mess.  

When bitcoin evangelist Alistair Milne published a survey of his Twitter followers, 81% of them had nary a clue.  Interestingly enough though, almost half of these respondents checked the box “Crypto iz ded”.

What exactly to conclude from this is open to interpretation but one thing is clear.  It is a big part of the problem long term investors face today. Crypto psychology sucks, the worst it has been since the Mt. Gox hack of 2010.

Good News Being Ignored

One of the barriers to progress in the crypto wars was the issue of regulatory clarification. Are cryptocurrencies simply digital assets or a class of securities that fall under the regulation of the Securities and Exchange Commission?

That question has now been answered.  On Thursday, the SEC’s announced that both bitcoin and Ethereum were not securities but digital assets.  However, the good news does not end here.

William Himman, representing the SEC, clarified the position of Initial Coin Offerings.  In cases where the ICO does not convey equity ownership of an enterprise and where the digital asset is sold only to be used to purchase a good or service available through the network on which it was created, it does not qualify as a security.

This represents one huge step forward in clarifying the regulatory environment and yet the markets response was brief and uninspiring as the full week’s performance unfortunately demonstrates. Honestly, this is a bit bizarre.

Other Good News Being Ignored

Crypto Asset Management may be short selling lots of currencies, but they are not alone.  According to www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/usd  margin interest in bitcoin and Ethereum is in excess of $1.2 billion.  While this is down from around $2 billion last December it still represents a sizable pool of future buyers.

It’s In The Mind

For digital asset prices reflect not only investor sentiment but also those who represent ultimate users.  For a digital currency to represent a storehouse of value, it must have public trust. Right now that appears to be at a low.

According to the British publication London Loves Business, the story is pretty clear. Headlines state “71% of the UK public think the value of Bitcoin will either decrease or collapse over the next six months.”  According to LLB,  this represents a 10% fall in investor confidence since the same question was last asked in April’s 2018 poll and a 24% fall in investor confidence from November’s 2017 poll figures.  In other words, the price of bitcoin holds the same implication for investors as it does for potential users.

This Too Shall Pass

Mob psychology often proves wrong and this negative mindset appears to be feeding off of itself right now.  Even one of crypto’s biggest critics Warren Buffett would agree that betting against the mob has been a big part of his investment strategy. At some point the mob will once again be proven wrong when short sellers get spooked and forced to cover positions or value investors will filter over from an overpriced U.S. equity market.  Either way, there is value in the crypto market that has not existed for quite some time. In the end, 71% of the Brits surveyed will be proven wrong also.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Stellar Price Analysis: XLM/USD Pullback Means Bulls Can Run Free

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  • XLM/USD has seen the required retest of the broken pennant pattern, leaving the door open to greater upside.
  • Technically the price developments appear to be stacked in the favor of the bulls.

Recent Price Developments

XLM/USD daily chart

Stella’s XLM is on its way back up to the north. XLM/USD is running at two consecutive sessions in the green. The price having gained over 17% in the past three sessions, moving back into a bullish trend. Given the recent technical price developments, this current push higher could prove to be sustainable in efforts for a longer-run.

XLM/USD had initially been moving within a pennant pattern structure; this was the case from June until early November. The price was contained within for 19 weeks, a long period of consolidation, after the heavy sell off from April up to June. Furthermore, as seen from the daily chart view, bulls managed to break free and close above the mentioned pattern on 4th November.

The market bulls went on to drive the price to its highest level seen since 24th September, jumping above the $0.28 territory. XLM/USD found its somewhat exhausted, after running into some known strong resistance. This was and still is notable at the 61.8% Fibonacci, the price had also faltered here during the run seen at the back end of September.

Given above-mentioned rejection at the 61.8% Fibonacci, XLM/USD was sent back south. The price was forced to retreat on top of the breached pennant pattern. This move, as described, playing out to the textbook. A breakout to the upside was seen from the pennant, which the retest having now been seen. As a result, a move which is now very likely to invite further buying pressure.

Upside Targets

The first major challenge for the bulls, will be to break down the $0.28 price territory. As mentioned above, the area that has caused an issue the past two occasions, where the price has met with the resistance. Should the bulls manage to gain enough momentum, a break will likely be seen. This could bring in play a return to $0.30.

Further to the north, eyes will be on the $0.35 area and beyond. XLM/USD was last seen up at these heights in the back-end of July. It had peaked here on 26th July, before then entering quite a steep bearish trend. The price had fallen a chunky 45%, up until the early part of August, where some stabilization then formed.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 54 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Factom (FCT) Rides Recovery to 65% Gains as Mortgage Service Adopts Blockchain

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Factom (FCT) climbed 65% from Wednesday through Saturday, as it continued to ride the recovery wave while the rest of the market stalled.

The price surge comes amid news that Factom’s Harmony blockchain-as-a-service (BaaS) technology is to be used by mortgage software and marketing firm, Equator, as a way to increase efficiency.

Factom Price on the Move

The press release announcement landed on November 13th, just as the recent market dip struck which wiped $38 billion off the global market cap. The value of FCT sunk along with the rest of the market, hitting a new 20-month low of $3.81, and a market cap of just over $30 million.

Since then, however, FCT’s fortunes turned round and the coin went on a day-on-day growth surge up to a price of $6.30 – a 65% increase. That was enough to take Factom’s market cap to over $50 million, and send it into the top hundred coins by market cap.

Of FCT’s trade action for Saturday, 100% of trades have come against BTC. Factom only has one other trading pair to its name – the CK USD (CKUSD) stablecoin. Poloniex catered to the majority of movements, with Bittrex, Upbit and Cryptopia picking up the rest.

Factom Gains Mortgage Service Use-Case

As per the press release which announced Factom’s new partnership:

“Equator, an Altisource business unit and a leading provider of residential loan default software and marketing solutions for many of the country’s top servicers, real estate agents and vendors, today announced an agreement with Factom, Inc. to integrate the Factom® Harmony blockchain-as-a-service (BaaS) platform into the Equator® PRO solution.”

According to the press release, Equator PRO is a software-as-a-service (SaaS) solution that aims to offer efficiency and oversight to help other mortgage servicers. Their platform includes but is not limited to:

“…loan management, loan modification, short sale/deed-in-lieu, foreclosure/bankruptcy, and real estate owned (REO) focused products…”

In the plainest of language, Factom just got a real-world use-case for its blockchain tech. Thus far, the technology is expected to be used to:

“…provide a distributed mechanism to preserve data, files and digital records, making them verifiable and independently auditable…”

Celebrations

Patrick G. McClain, Senior Vice President of Equator talked up the partnership, stating:

“Incorporating Factom’s blockchain tools will support our customers’ compliance obligations. At Equator we are regularly working to improve and advance our default servicing technology, and adding cutting-edge tools like Factom’s Harmony is another example of our continued leadership.”

Chief Operating Officer of Factom, Laurie Pyle, also celebrated the news, stating:

“At Factom we know a practical blockchain solution is needed to specifically deal with complex business data and documents. We look forward to working with Equator, who shares the vision of using blockchain technology to bring transparency and efficiency to the default servicing process.”

Factom launched just over three years ago and was subject to lots of positive chatter up until the ICO era came into play, and Factom was relegated from CoinMarketCap’s first page.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 90 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Has Big Opportunity to Fly Again

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  • ETH/USD is running at seven consecutive sessions of losses, dropping as much as 25%.
  • Price action is moving within a strong demand area, which could very well see the price rocketing again.

Current Price Action

ETH/USD is stuck within a stubborn downward trend. The price is running at a seven consecutive session losing streak. During this time period, ETH/USD has dropped as much as 25%, falling from $226, down to recent lows of $171.95. This is the biggest weekly loss seen since the bear market back in September.

The price was trading in a consolidation manner; this had been the case after the above-mentioned bear market drop. ETH/USD at the time had dropped as much as 45%, before finally staging a recovery. Since the bounce on 12th September, price action began to form a bearish pennant pattern, which was then firmly broken on 14th November.

ETH/USD daily chart

Buying Opportunity  

At the time of writing, ETH/USD is seen trading deep within a known demand area. Buyers last pilled in and drove the price north, back on 12th September, as detailed above. It had gone on to gain a whopping 50%, following the hammer candlestick reversal confirmation. The demand can be eyed around the $170 territory.

Eyes should be on indications of a reversal, the potential for a signal from a candlestick formation, similarly to the prior mentioned recovery. In terms of the RSI via the daily time frame, ETH/USD is very much in oversold territory. The index seen around the 27 level at the time of writing, which could see the price soon bottoming out.

Upside Targets

Should life be kicked back into the bulls, another retest of the breached pennant pattern would likely be seen. Resistance underneath the pennant should be noted at the psychological $200 mark. The bears firmly ran through this price level on 14th November. Further north, another barrier can be observed at $230 area, a known supply zone.

There has been much debate over the past couple of months, as to whether the cryptocurrency market has hit the bottom. Many believed that this was the case, after the deep September drop. While some were still calling another corrective fall. Once some stabilization from the bulls is seen and recovery picks up momentum, this may be the last of the bears for 2018.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 54 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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