Comparing Nasdaq and Bitcoin: What Lessons Can We Learn?
Over the past few months, lots of people have talked about the similarities between the .com bubble in the early 2000s and the bitcoin market today. It seems that the further down the bitcoin market goes; the more people are using this analogue to help them stay in the game for the long-run.
One of the influential people in the crypto space who often refers to this comparison is Teeka Tiwari at Palm Beach Research Group. While he usually compares the Nasdaq during the late 1990s with the total cryptocurrency market cap, we are here going to compare the Nasdaq during that same period with the market for bitcoin specifically.
In the image above, the top chart is a weekly chart of bitcoin, while the bottom chart is a monthly chart of the Nasdaq 100 Index from 1989 to 2004.
As we all know, the crypto market tends to behave like the stock market on steroids. Moves are larger, and trends change faster in crypto compared to in stocks. It therefore makes more sense to compare these two charts using different timeframes, which is why I have chosen the monthly chart for Nasdaq while bitcoin is represented with a weekly chart.
There are a few interesting things to take note of regarding this comparison:
The Nasdaq found support following the crash in 2000 and 2001, and has later gained more than 600%. The Nasdaq has, in other words, returned more than three times as much for investors than the broader S&P500 index has done.
One explanation for why all financial bubbles have so much in common is that the one thing that causes them – human fear and greed – never changes.
What was different during the dot-com bubble back in the early 2000s was that communication was slow and ineffective compared to the high-speed Internet connections we have today on our phones and laptops. This is one of the reasons why it took the Nasdaq a few years to rise 1,700%, while bitcoin managed to achieve the same return in just a few months.
Similarly, it took the Nasdaq 30 months to fall 78%, while bitcoin lost 70% in just one and a half month.
Another thing both markets have had in common is that when they were down 70% from the top, many people completely lost faith in the future of these markets.
It has been pointed out by observers that even the arguments these people used against investing in the said markets were largely the same: No underlying value, too much volatility, too much regulations/lack of regulations/bad regulations, lack of social responsibility from the market actors, etc.
In hindsight, it has become clear that only the investors who had the mental clarity to ignore all this noise during the early 2000s were able to catch the 600% move that followed in the Nasdaq.
Diversification saved investors
When we are talking about ignoring noise and riding out the storm, let’s not forget that many of the companies that made up the Nasdaq in the early 2000s did eventually go out of business. Betting everything on a single company, in many cases, ended up being a catastrophe for the investor, despite the fact that the sector as a whole did incredibly well. This really made the benefit of diversification clear to everyone.
We can assume that the same is true for the cryptocurrencies of today. Some will emerge and become hugely successful, while others will slowly but steadily decrease in value and become irrelevant. Which ones they are is extremely difficult to tell at this early stage, but the lesson to be learned is clear: Diversification may be the only free lunch we will ever get in the world.
Featured image from Pixabay.