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Comparing Nasdaq and Bitcoin: What Lessons Can We Learn?

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Bubbles

Over the past few months, lots of people have talked about the similarities between the .com bubble in the early 2000s and the bitcoin market today. It seems that the further down the bitcoin market goes; the more people are using this analogue to help them stay in the game for the long-run.

One of the influential people in the crypto space who often refers to this comparison is Teeka Tiwari at Palm Beach Research Group. While he usually compares the Nasdaq during the late 1990s with the total cryptocurrency market cap, we are here going to compare the Nasdaq during that same period with the market for bitcoin specifically.

Nasdaq vs Bitcoin

In the image above, the top chart is a weekly chart of bitcoin, while the bottom chart is a monthly chart of the Nasdaq 100 Index from 1989 to 2004.

As we all know, the crypto market tends to behave like the stock market on steroids. Moves are larger, and trends change faster in crypto compared to in stocks. It therefore makes more sense to compare these two charts using different timeframes, which is why I have chosen the monthly chart for Nasdaq while bitcoin is represented with a weekly chart.

There are a few interesting things to take note of regarding this comparison:

The Nasdaq found support following the crash in 2000 and 2001, and has later gained more than 600%. The Nasdaq has, in other words, returned more than three times as much for investors than the broader S&P500 index has done.

One explanation for why all financial bubbles have so much in common is that the one thing that causes them – human fear and greed – never changes.

What was different during the dot-com bubble back in the early 2000s was that communication was slow and ineffective compared to the high-speed Internet connections we have today on our phones and laptops. This is one of the reasons why it took the Nasdaq a few years to rise 1,700%, while bitcoin managed to achieve the same return in just a few months.

Similarly, it took the Nasdaq 30 months to fall 78%, while bitcoin lost 70% in just one and a half month.

Another thing both markets have had in common is that when they were down 70% from the top, many people completely lost faith in the future of these markets.

It has been pointed out by observers that even the arguments these people used against investing in the said markets were largely the same: No underlying value, too much volatility, too much regulations/lack of regulations/bad regulations, lack of social responsibility from the market actors, etc.

In hindsight, it has become clear that only the investors who had the mental clarity to ignore all this noise during the early 2000s were able to catch the 600% move that followed in the Nasdaq.

Diversification saved investors

When we are talking about ignoring noise and riding out the storm, let’s not forget that many of the companies that made up the Nasdaq in the early 2000s did eventually go out of business. Betting everything on a single company, in many cases, ended up being a catastrophe for the investor, despite the fact that the sector as a whole did incredibly well. This really made the benefit of diversification clear to everyone.

We can assume that the same is true for the cryptocurrencies of today. Some will emerge and become hugely successful, while others will slowly but steadily decrease in value and become irrelevant. Which ones they are is extremely difficult to tell at this early stage, but the lesson to be learned is clear: Diversification may be the only free lunch we will ever get in the world.

Featured image from Pixabay.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.3 stars on average, based on 37 rated postsFredrik Vold is an entrepreneur, financial writer, and technical analysis enthusiast. He has been working and traveling in Asia for several years, and is currently based out of Beijing, China. He closely follows stocks, forex and cryptocurrencies, and is always looking for the next great alternative investment opportunity.




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  1. suguru

    June 13, 2018 at 9:24 pm

    Hi, how much would it be technically legitimate to compare a cryptocurrency with an index of multiple stocks? It just looks to me the shape of the charts has been similar and it would make much more sense to compare it with another so called “store of value” (which a stock index is obviously not; it’s just a number), say traditional gold. Research on the fundamental conditions which have decided the gold price should tell us something informative I guess. Regards,

    • Fredrik Vold

      June 14, 2018 at 3:30 am

      Hi Suguru,

      You could definitely compare the Nasdaq to the overall cryptocurrency market as well, and not just bitcoin. As I mentioned, some people like to compare the chart of the total crypto market cap with the Nasdaq during this period.

      The problem with using gold is that it’s been around for thousands of years. Bitcoin is brand new as a “store of value” and therefore hasn’t reached maturity yet. When bitcoin matures as a digital store of value (whenever that is), I think the price would probably behave more like the gold price.

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Market Overview

Ethereum Co-Founder Puts to Rest Speculation of Crypto Armageddon

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Blockchain pioneer Joseph Lubin, who is at the helm of blockchain startup ConsenSys, isn’t swayed by this year’s downturn in the crypto market. In fact, Lubin has been a voice of calm in the crypto space all year, emphasizing the development side of the equation while cryptocurrencies have been in the doldrums, not the least of which has been the currency of the project he co-founded, Ethereum (ETH). He told CNBC:

“Digital currencies are not on the edge of a collapse. We’ve seen lots of boom and busts in our ecosystem over the last nearly 10 years and our ecosystem has never been stronger.”

Lubins’ barometer for success in the crypto industry is the number of projects and people that have been drawn into this space, including entrepreneurs and developers. “It’s orders of magnitude bigger than it was and the foundational infrastructure is getting built out,” he noted.

That foundational infrastructure is exactly what is going to deliver the kind of scalability that networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum need to go from what an Andreessen Horowitz General Partner recently described as “dial-up” days to mainstream adoption. Meanwhile, Lubin recently pointed out that the amount of activity on the Ethereum blockchain today outpaces where it was a year ago when the market was approaching its peak.

Industry Regulation

While U.S. regulators have been dragging their feet to develop  a framework for cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, they’ve been more keen to embrace the blockchain and according to Lubin “regulators are getting a very good understanding of the value of the technology.” When pressed, Lubin said he expects “lots of self-regulatory activity” in the crypto space” but he is quick to distinguish ether more as a crypto commodity or as a crypto fuel for the Ethereum network than a cryptocurrency, though it has some features of the latter.

Incidentally, while the broader cryptocurrency market is currently trading flat, one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies of late is Basic Attention Token (BAT), which is an Ethereum-based coin that is up approximately 50% in the last week amid speculation it will be Coinbase’s next listing.

And then there’s regulated crypto exchange Bakkt, whose parent company is the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Bakkt announced today that it will launch its bitcoin futures contract on Dec. 12, which is slightly behind the original plan for a November launch. In a nod to foundational infrastructure, it’s been about a year since the CME and CBOE launched the industry’s first bitcoin futures products.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 69 rated postsGerelyn has been covering ICOs and the cryptocurrency market since mid-2017. She's also reported on fintech more broadly in addition to asset management, having previously specialized in institutional investing. She owns some BTC and ETH.




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Market Overview

Market Update: U.S. Stocks Dragged Lower by Financials, Energy Companies; China Rebounds

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U.S. stocks finished mostly lower on Monday, as brisk selloffs of financials and energy shares offset modest gains in the technology and communication sectors. A large relief rally in China failed to ignite a similar revival in Europe and North America as concerns over global growth dampened investors’ appetite.

U.S. Stocks Sputter

The S&P 500 Index opened in positive territory before wobbling during the morning session and eventually turning lower in in afternoon trade. The broad index settled down 0.4% at 2,755.88, with a majority of sectors finishing in the red. Energy and financials were the biggest decliners, each falling more than 1% as a sector.

Modest gains in tech pushed the Nasdaq Composite Index to higher ground. The benchmark rose 0.3% to close at 7,468.63.

Dow industrials declined 126.86 points, or 0.5%, to 25,317.48. DowDupont Inc. (DD), American Express Co (AMX) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) were among the biggest decliners.

European markets also headed for losses on Monday, with all major continental bourses finishing in the red. The Euro Stoxx 50 Pr index closed down 0.7%,

China’s Biggest Rally in Three Years

Chinese markets exploded higher on Monday, with the mainland indexes posting their biggest single-day advance in almost three years following reassuring comments from government officials last week.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index surged 4.1% while the CSI 300 Index closed 4.3% higher, its largest advance since November 2015. Hong Kong’s Heng Seng Index rose 2.3%.

Government officials ranging from the Vice Premier to the heads of the People’s Bank of China talked up the domestic economy last week, reassuring investors that the ongoing trade war with the United States would not have a material effect on the nation. President Trump has implemented tariffs on more than $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, making whole on a campaign promise to hold Beijing to account for its unfair trade practices. According to the International Monetary Fund, the trade spat will result in both economies growing 0.2 percentage point slower next year. This will also lead to a downshift in global growth.

Last week, China reported annual GDP growth of 6.5% during the third quarter, the slowest since 2009. On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor is expected to release preliminary Q3 GDP figures.

Lackluster Session for Cryptocurrencies

Risk-off sentiment in global equity markets in hasn’t translated into higher demand for bitcoin and other digital assets. On Monday, cryptocurrency prices traded slightly to the downside, erasing minor gains made during the previous session. At the time of writing, the total market capitalization of all coins was just over $209 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

The bitcoin price swung back below $6,500, though losses were generally well contained. Ethereum, XRP and bitcoin cash all traded slightly lower on a 24-hour basis.

Digital currencies are experiencing a downshift in volatility as well as in trade volumes, with investors unwilling to commit to either direction. Recent history has taught us that prolonged periods of lateral moves are usually followed by sharp declines in subsequent sessions.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 649 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Market Overview

Cautiously Flying

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Hi Everyone,

It’s only Monday and already it seems to be one of the most exciting weeks of the year for the financial markets. Asian stocks are flying this morning (the reason for this below) despite some clear signs that investors are still cautious.

One of these signs is the price of gold, which has spiked during the sell-off two weeks ago (purple circle) but is now showing signs that it may be ready to stretch higher (yellow rising support line).

The fact that gold is trading near its highs is not necessarily any indication in and of itself. The upcoming Diwali Festival in India is traditionally a time when gold prices tend to rise.

As we’ll see below, investors are still happy to pour money into this market but they are doing so very carefully right now.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Chinese Support
  • Mark’s Market
  • Even more stable crypto

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of October 22nd. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

As we mentioned above, Chinese stocks are flying. The China 50 index is up an astonishing 5.3% as of this writing. This is largely due to strong support from President Xi Xinping…

We’ve seen these type of stunts before from President Trump but this behaviour does seem to be new for the Chinese leader.

The timing is impeccable here too. As we’ve been watching, the Chinese stock markets have been on the ropes after retreating more than 30% since the year’s highs. However, the Xi’s gambit may have fallen short of the mark.

As we can see below, the red line being defended on the China50 is just above 10,500 points. Whereas, to break out of the current range to the upside we’d need to see levels above 12,000.

Cautious Like an Oak Tree

For legendary investor Howard Marks, the markets are not so binary. The co-founder of Oaktree Capital does see the current markets as expensive but adds that this doesn’t mean we’re about to see a crash. The economy is doing well and therefore it pays to be in the market, but defensively.

We all know that markets are cyclical. They go through bull times and bear. However, not every rise is a bubble and not every decline is a crash. In fact, most market moves are a lot more moderate.

Marks’ theories are always fascinating even if they sometimes differ from my own, especially when it comes to bitcoin. I’ve been enjoying his email alerts for a while now, but this interview on Bloomberg opened my eyes in a new way.

Crypto Markets

Crypto markets remain steady and are showing even more signs of stability. Tether seems to have regained most of its composure and is now trading within 2 cents of the $1 mark, right where it should be.

In the meantime, volumes on other stable coins have stepped up to further stabilize the market. In this graph from theblockcrypto.com we can see USDT’s dominance of the stablecoin market dropping sharply since the incident on October 15th.

As we see more stable coins join the market, the safer the market will become. According to CCN there are more than 50 active stablecoins at the moment with more coming out all the time. At the moment, it seems that the one eating into Tether’s market share is Paxos, which is both regulated and rising quickly in volumes.

Wishing you an amazing week ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan | Twitter: @MatiGreenspan | LinkedIn: MatiGreenspan | Facebook:MatiGreenspan

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 133 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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