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Coming out of the Closet

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Australia has just concluded a mail-in referendum that has overwhelmingly affirmed the country’s will to legalize same sex marriage. With a turnout of 79.5% of the population, the vote carried with 61.6% in favor.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has pledged to carry out the will of the people and sign it into law by Christmas. If he succeeds, Australia will become the 26th country take this massive step. This is up from just two countries that had such laws in 1993.

The quick pace at which the world is changing has been accelerating and we can notice a paradigm shift from conservative to liberal thinking. For example, recreational marijuana has seen a similar global change of mind over the last few decades.

So, how long do you think it will take for the world to switch out the money we’re using and ditch government backed system in favor of a borderless digital solution?

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of November 15th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Market Overview

The price of crude oil dropped yesterday bringing with it energy stocks, which managed to drag down global indices ever so slightly.

After a record breaking bull run and stocks hovering near their all time highest levels, it does seem that some buyers at least are starting to develop a fear of heights.

For the Dow Jones, 4 of the past 5 days have created red candles (orange circle) but so far it seems more like a lack of buyers than any serious selling. Which is ironic, since most of this recent ramp has been caused by a lack of sellers.

Either way, volatility has ramped up slightly with the VIX “fear index” clocking 11.59 points. A welcome change from the record low seen two weeks ago.

Asian markets have also performed poorly this morning with the Nikkei 225 dropping 1.5% and the China50 as well as the ASX 200 down about 0.5%. The European markets have just opened and the picture so far does not look pretty.

As can be expected, with risk sentiment being meek investors are turning to gold as the safe haven. The shiny metal has been quite stable throughout the recent bull run. After showing incredible support at $1260 (blue) has now created itself a mini upward channel (yellow).

Buffet’s Portfolio

As the world’s most famous and popular investor, it’s fun to keep tabs on what he’s holding and his performance. Even though this year his stats don’t come close to some of the traders in eToro…

…it’s really the consistency that counts. The man has delivered an average of 9.7% returns since 1965.

So what’s new?

In a surprising move, Warren has made a major shift in the tech stocks that he’s holding in Q3. He’s dumped 30% of his holding in IBM and purchased an additional 4 million shares of Apple stock.

The move seems to have been advantageous as Apple rose 6% during the quarter and IBM fell 5%.

Over to Crypto

Everything is green in crypto land today. Over the past 24 hours 87 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are in profit. The total market value of all digital assets in circulation is now at a record high $215 Billion, up from $17 Billion at the start of the year.

The @CryptoFund that we’ve created at eToro back in June tracks the top traded cryptocurrencies by volume and has returned 78% profits so far.

What else?

The focus today will likely be on CPI inflation numbers coming from the USA. More importantly, the influence of these numbers on the Fed’s decision to hike rates or not at their meeting on December 13th.

At this point, the market is pricing in a 92% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting. A strong number here could push that expectation to 100%. Or vice versa a surprise deflation could shake confidence in the Fed’s ability to pull off a smooth hike.

Also watch the crude oil inventories. Crude has been driving the markets for the past few days so stay on top of it.

Lemme know if you have any questions. All comments and feedacks positive or negative are always appreciated.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 144 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Market Overview

Return of Volatility? U.S. Stocks Plunge on China Growth Woes

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U.S. stocks declined sharply on Tuesday, as fears of a slowing Chinese economy disrupted weeks of steady progress on Wall Street. Meanwhile, crypto markets continued to stabilize after a weekend pump-and-dump.

Stocks Plunge

All of Wall Street’s major indexes booked heavy losses in the first session back from Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 301.87 points, or 1.2%, to 24,404.48. Twenty-eight of 30 index members finished lower, led by Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), DowDuPont Inc. (DD) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS).

The broad S&P 500 Index (NYSEARCA:SPY) fell 1.4% to 2,632.90, led by steep losses in energy and technology shares. Ten of 11 primary sectors were lower by the close.

The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index declined 1.9% to close at 7,020.36.

A measure of implied volatility known as the CBOE VIX surged on Tuesday, signaling rocky trading conditions for stocks. The so-called “fear index” rose reached a session high of 21.15 on a scale of 1-100 where 20 represents the historic average. It later settled at 20.83, having gained 17%. VIX has gained in just three of the past 11 sessions.

Chinese Headwinds

Investors returned to work after the holiday only to see that China’s economy had grown at its weakest pace in 28 years. What’s more, the pace of expansion weakened further in the latter half of 2018, with annual fourth-quarter GDP rising 6.4%. That’s below the full-year growth clip of 6.6%.

President Trump commented on the growth numbers in a tweet on Monday, where he urged Beijing to negotiate a balanced trade deal to bolster its economy.

China and the U.S. have made important progress in bilateral trade talks. Last week, Beijing pledged to eliminate its surplus with the U.S. over the next six years by importing an additional $1 trillion in American-made goods. However, negotiations appear to have soured after a source told CNBC that a forthcoming meeting between Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese vice ministers of trade has been cancelled. More on this story can be found on CCN.

A slowdown in China and other major economies prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to slash its forecast for global growth this year and in 2020. The Fund now expects the global economy to grow 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, down from prior estimates of 3.7% for both years.

Cryptos Lack Progress

Crypto markets were largely rangebound on Tuesday, as the technical tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears continued. The combined value of cryptocurrencies hovered just below $121 billion, where it was little changed from Monday’s levels. Markets whipsawed between gains and losses over the weekend before stabilizing on Monday.

Bitcoin returned above $3,600 in the afternoon session for a gain of 1%. Ethereum rose 1.6% to $119.33. Bitcoin cash, EOS and Tron each rose more than 4.5% on the day.

Related: Can EOS Overcome the Bear Market?

Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, is planning a major expansion into Europe via Jersey, a self-governing entity of the United Kingdom. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao recently tweeted that the exchange has been “overwhelmed with registrations,” a sign of strong demand in a region hit by political chaos and slowing economic growth.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 743 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Analysis

3 Things You Need to Know About the Market Today

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1, Pound Resumes Rally on Strong Employment Report

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Great British Pound reacted well to the likely delay of the Brexit process in recent weeks, and today the currency defied the risk-off shift and rallied back towards the 1.30 level against the USD. The better than expected British Employment Report, which showed the strongest wage growth in a decade, outpacing inflation despite the long-term weakness of the Pound.

While the currency gained ground, British equities followed the global trends and finished lower, threatening with a resumption of the broader declining trend. All eyes are still on the Brexit saga, but should the extended deadline scenario prevail, the short-term bullish trend could continue in the pair, even as traders should keep the considerable event risk in mind when trading the Pound-related pairs.

2, Oil and Stocks Slide as Risk Assets Suffer amid Renewed Trade Worries

Johnson & Johnson, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the losses in risk assets have been limited yesterday, due, in part at least, to the US bank holiday, today, we saw heavy selling across the board. Oil ran into a wall near the resistance zone that we pointed out yesterday, and the crucial commodity fell back to a $52 per barrel handle with regards to the WTI contract.

Stocks got hit hard on reports that this week’s round of meetings between the senior US and Chinese officials has been canceled, with the issues of Intellectual Property and deeper Chinese economic reforms being behind the setback. We argued several times that these ‘soft’, hard to control issues are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, even in the case of a formal agreement, so while we expect wild swings on trade-related headlines, the structural, credit-related issues will drive Chinese assets.

3, Johnson & Johnson Misses on Guidance Despite Earnings Beat

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The pressure on stocks intensified following Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) earnings report, with the 2019 guidance disappointing investors. While the previous quarter was a positive surprise from the healthcare giant, as far as the bottom line is concerned, the outlook for the consumer segment cast a shadow on the broader market even as the company’s core Pharmaceutical business continues to shine.

Shares of the company are down by around 2%, and after the closing bell, IBM’s (IBM) report will be in focus, as the struggling tech giant will also report earnings. IBM has seen its share price cut in half as its growth stalled in recent years, and even a small positive surprise could propel the stock higher following the market-wide decline of the recent months, but it’s unlikely that the broader downtrend will be broken anytime soon.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 445 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Market Overview

Dow Plunges After Opening Bell as Democrats Set to Reject Trump’s Proposal to End Government Shutdown

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U.S. stocks opened sharply lower on Tuesday, as Democrats wasted little time talking down President Trump’s new border-security proposal to end the partial government shutdown. Oil prices also faced a sharp correction as China growth woes rattled investors.

Weak Open

All of Wall Street’s major indexes traded lower after the opening bell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by as much as 188 points. The Dow 30 index was last down 154 points, or 0.6%, at 24,552.12. The broad S&P 500 Index declined 0.7% to 2,652.82, with ten of 11 primary sectors trading lower. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.8% to 7,101.06.

U.S. markets were closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. U.S. futures prices were down across the board in the holiday-shortened session.

The last full trading session on Friday saw gains of 1% to 1.3% for the major indexes.

Oil Slides

The S&P 500’s energy index declined 1.8% at the start of trading Tuesday as oil prices faced a brisk selloff. U.S. and international crude prices were down more than 2% on worries that China’s slowing economy will impact energy demand.

As Hacked reported on Monday, China’s economic growth slowed to 6.6% in 2018, the lowest rate of expansion in 28 years.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark for U.S. crude futures declined $1.33, or 2.5%, to $52.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the international futures benchmark, declined $1.41, or 2.3%, to $61.32 a barrel.

Senate to Reject Trump’s New Proposal

Senate Democrats this week are expected to reject President Trump’s new proposal to end the partial government shutdown, which has now entered day 31. With another employee pay deadline over the horizon, Republicans and Democrats are under pressure to resolve the impasse, which has shattered the previous record for longest in history.

On Saturday, President Trump laid out a new plan for funding his proposed border wall that included key compromises on DACA and immigrants with Temporary Protected Status. As we reported on CCN, the proposal included a three-year extension for immigrants that fall under either category, as well as additional funds for urgent humanitarian care, additional border agents and drug protection technology.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi immediately rejected the proposal, and has since gone on to call it a “nonstarter,” according to The Wall Street Journal. As WSJ notes, the proposal is unlikely to receive the 60 votes necessary to pass in the Senate and wouldn’t survive the Democrat-controlled House.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. Charts via TradingView and Barchart. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 743 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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