Connect with us

Market Overview

Clearing the Money Hurdle

Published

on

Bitcoin has blasted through the $10,000 barrier in record time and is now nearing $11,000 at a rapid pace, possibly even by the time you read this.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

Wall Street’s resident bitcoin buff Mike Novogratz has moved his target to $40,000 by the end of 2018, stating that not only is this a bubble but that the bubble is going to get a lot bigger from here due to the global nature of this unique asset.

Whether it is indeed a bubble or something else entirely remains to be seen. What I can tell you from my conversations with clients is that more and more people are starting to see bitcoin as money and the potential to replace the current fiat central banking system that has gotten out of hand.

Once we clear this hurdle the BTC exchange rate to the US Dollar might be less relevant as merchants would then fix prices in a more stable currency. One that isn’t designed to lose value over time.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of November 29th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Market Overview

Donald Trump’s tax plan cleared another hurdle yesterday and the bill is now set to hit the Senate floor for an official vote, possibly by Thursday.

Concurrently, North Korea launched another missile at Japan yesterday. The projectile flew for 53 minutes before landing 210 Kilometers off the coast of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone.

Kim Jong Un now claims that he can reach any part of the United States, Trump says everything is under control and he’s handling it.

The markets were very impressed with the Tax Plan update and disregarded the missile test. The Dow Jones rose by an impressive 1.09% (yellow circle) and even the markets in Asia are firmly in the green this morning.

A quick glance at the price of gold will confirm that the markets are not feeling any sort of heat from the DPRK. Though the pattern shown in the rectangle is very bullish, gains have been gradual lately and there certainly isn’t any flight to safety as of yet.

Brexit Deal

The EU and UK have cleared their own hurdle coming closer to a divorce settlement for Brexit. Negotiators have now agreed to an outline for what the framework should look like.

Theresa May is set to meet with the President of the European Commission for lunch on Monday where she will propose the deal. The ball will then be in Europe’s court. Optimists believe that the final agreement may be revealed at an EU summit happening in mid-December.

Details of the deal are still scant but rumors are that one of the most tricky points to resolve remains the Irish Border. As long as the UK remains an EU member the border between Ireland and British Controlled Northern Ireland remains rather free. However, what that border will look like come March of 2019 is a huge point of contention.

The Pound Sterling is running its own marathon this morning confirming an upward trend that has been forming for the past two weeks (chart below). If this deal goes through the Pound could have lots of room to rise before reaching its pre-brexit-referendum levels.

Cryptomania

Today’s highlight in the crypto-market is Litecoin, which has just reached a new all-time high.

Though it’s rise has not been as impressive as bitcoin, it’s protocol is better making it a more sustainable option for payments and an excellent addition to any alternative investment portfolio.

As we watch BTC’s parabolic rise, one important thing to consider is the network’s ability to process transactions in a timely fashion. We’ve seen times of congestion get in the way of price rises before so let’s take a look.

At the time of this writing, there are approximately 50,000 unconfirmed transactions waiting to be processed on the bitcoin blockchain. The following chart shows the number of transactions in the queue, known as the mempool.

The large hump in the middle began on November 8th when the Segwit2x hard fork was canceled. Subsequently, some minors switched to Bitcoin Cash for quick gains.

Though 50,000 transactions is not incredibly large, given the current excitement around digital gold this number does have the potential to rise quite quickly. If that does happen, it will be interesting to see how many people are willing to buy in when they have to wait hours or days for the transaction to go through.

Perhaps they’ll be patient and continue to buy in, but there’s a real chance that IF we do see congestion and IF it is seen as a weakness it could possibly spark the pullback that many seem to be waiting for.

Just keep your eyes on the mempool chart, which as my 4 year old daughter pointed out, oddly resembles the cover of a Dr. Seuss book.

As always, social trading is all about sharing information so please continue sending me your insight by Email, chat, and your favorite social network.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Market Overview

Asian Market Update – Thursday: Ethereum Extends Rally; Asian Stocks down After US Rates Hike

Published

on

Janet Yellen

The Big Question: Is ethereum finally catching up with bitcoin?

Bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin were all pointing higher on Thursday morning in Asia, with large gains seen in ethereum, and slight gains in bitcoin and litecoin.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

By midday, ethereum had edged up 5.68 percent to $752. Although a bit more subdued than litecoin, ethereum has also made huge gains over the past a few days. Etheruem is now up about 67 percent over the course of the week.

Litecoin also surged 1.22 percent to $316 as of midday Thursday in Asia, following a correction yesterday that brought the prices on Coinbase and Bitfinex closer together.

Litecoin gained more than 130 percent on Monday and Tuesday, reaching as high as $420 at one point on Coinbase, before falling back. On Wednesday, litecoin dropped about 11 percent on Coinbase while it was up around 1 percent on Bitfinex.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Bitcoin was also up 0.66 percent to $16,799 at midday on Thursday. The slight gain came after big losses on Wednesday. The virtual currency dropped about 6 percent on Wednesday, after a 16 percent increase over the previous two days.

Outgoing US Fed Chair Janet Yellen voiced criticism against bitcoin on Wednesday, saying the cryptocurrency is a “highly speculative asset” and “not a stable source of value,” according to media reports.

Main Market Movers – Mid-day Asian Trading Session

Indexes Value at Midday Daily Change
Japan- Nikkei 225 22,704 -0.24%
China-Shanghai Composite Index 3,296 -0.20%
Hong Kong –Hang Seng 29,216 -0.02%
South Korea-KOSPI 2,503 0.92%
Australia-ASX 200 6,020 -0.02%
S&P 500 E-Mini Futures 2,670 0.06%

Major Asian equities were narrowly down on Thursday morning, following the US Fed delivering a much-anticipated US rate hike, but voicing concern over inflation next year and rate hikes in China and Hong Kong.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 Index was off 0.24 percent to 22,704 at midday. The loss, though small, came even after fresh data out on Thursday suggested positive signs in the Japanese economy.  The Markit/Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Flash Purchashing Managers Index rose to 54.2 in December, up from 53.6 in November – the highest reading in more than three years.

On the Chinese mainland, the Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.20 percent at midday on Thursday to 3,296. That came after the People’s Bank of China raised the country’s short- and medium-term interest rate by 5 basis points on Thursday morning, in response to the US rate hike. Though the move was unexpected, the increase was minimal and will likely not make any significant impact.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was down 0.02 percent to 29,216 at midday. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority also raised the base rate by 25 basis points on Thursday after the US Fed’s rate hike.

Down under, the ASX 200 was down a slight 0.02 percent to 6,020 after midday in Australian trading.

Stocks in South Korea edged up on Thursday morning. At midday, the Kospi was up 0.92 percent to 2,503 at midday.

The S&P 500 E-Mini Future was up 0.06 percent to 2,670.

The Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates for the third time this year as expected, while maintaining a projection of three more rate hikes in 2018. However, the thing that got the attention of investors was concerns raised by the Fed about the low inflation, downplaying expectations for a tightening in 2018.

Currencies

The Japanese yen lost 0.04 percent against the US dollar at midday Thursday, changing hands at 112.56 per dollar.

The Chinese yuan firmed 0.07 percent against the US dollar to 6.62084 per dollar.

The Australian dollar firmed 0.43 percent on the dollar, changing hands at 1.3035 per dollar at midday.

Commodities

WTI Oil gained 0.09 percent to $56.70 per barrel.

Brent Crude edged up 0.22 percent to $62.79 per barrel.

Gold was up 0.24 percent to $1,258 an ounce.

News across Asia

In China, investment in the real estate sector cooled in November, following a slew of measures from the government to crack down on speculation in overheated real estate markets. New figures out on Thursday showed that property investments grew 4.6 percent in the month, slower than the 5.6 percent growth in October.

Take away: Though the government measures, which include tough mortgage rules and sales regulations, could contain the overheated housing market, it could also very well weigh on the overall economic growth in China.

In Japan, the government is reportedly expected to reduce new bond issuance for the fiscal year 2018. Total bond issuance could fall as much as several hundred billion yen in 2018 from the current 34.37 trillion yen, the Nikkei reported.

Take away: The decision is likely to have been supported by rising tax revenues from the government following a recovery in economic growth in recent months.  

Featured image from Flickr.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term trading.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move

Published

on

Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2668 -0.02%
DAX 13125 -0.45%
WTI Crude Oil 56.65 -0.68%
GOLD 1258.00 1.35%
Bitcoin 16,100 -6.32%
EUR/USD 1.1842 0.73%

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.

Cryptocurrencies

As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
11:30 UK Average Earnings 2.5% 2.5% 2.3%
11:30 UK Claimant Count Change 5,900 3,300 6,500
11:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2% 4.35
15:30 US Core CPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.1 mill -3.6 mill -5.6 mill
21:00 US Fed Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.25%
21:00 US FOMC Statement

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Market Overview

What’s Behind the Cryptosurge

Published

on

If you’re reading this you’re probably aware of the unimaginable gains that have been seen across the crypto market this year. Last night we saw a new and very important milestone that has provoked some interesting commentary.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

The total value of all digital assets as listed on coinmarketcap.com has surpassed $500 Billion for the first time. To think, this number has grown from just $14.5 Billion one year ago today making for an unbelievable percentage growth of 3448%.

These numbers spark a lot of questions. Ethereum’s founder and one of the most notable figures in the crypto-space Vitalik Buterin posted a lot of these questions on his twitter feed this morning.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Mostly, Vitalik wants to know if this valuation is justified and more importantly how are we changing the world for the better?

What cryptotraders like myself want to know is how long will this current surge last and what is likely to drive the market going forward.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

Fed Day!!

Insane Inflation hits UK

Urgent Crypto Updates

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of December 13th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Though I realize that many of you are here for crypto, there are some huge things happening in the traditional markets that we need to get out of the way first. At the end of the day, I’m a markets man and as such cannot ignore Fed Day.

This evening, the US Federal Reserve Bank who has been the biggest driver of market prices over the last decade will raise their interest rate from 1.25% to 1.5%. In Forex markets this type of move is usually a really big deal as we can see many large players moving their funds into Dollars in order to take advantage of the bigger rate.

However, as the market has already been certain that this move will come over the past month the increase of 0.25% is already priced into the markets. What investors really want to know is how much will they increase rates going forward?

Even though the Fed has boldly lied to us about how fast they will be raising the rates many times in the last few years, somehow what they say still holds meaning and so we must listen.

Overall, the Fed is on an extremely gradual pace to make money more expensive. US Dollars have been cheap and easy since the financial crisis of 2008, a policy that many say is causing some bubbles in the stock markets and imho is a major contributing factor to the current boom in cryptocurrencies.

This graph shows the expectations of 16 Fed members over the next few years. Each one places one dot for each year telling us where they think rates will be at that time. As we can see, even the most aggressive member is still expecting the rates to remain below 4% by 2020. So money is likely to remain extremely cheap.

Hyperinflation Is Happening Already

All this cheap money is extremely unsettling and even dangerous, for some regions more than others. Especially when there is an external event that suddenly changes the picture.

For example, a political crisis in Zimbabwe or Venezuela. But it’s not just the third world anymore. Yesterday the Bank of England announced a shocking inflation report showing that prices are up 3.1% in the last year.

Particularly concerning is the price of specific goods. Fish is up 15%, olive oil 9.3% and butter is up 23% over the past year.

Meanwhile, salaries in the UK have not gone up nearly enough to cover these higher prices. Today the UK will release their Average Earnings Report, which analysts are forecasting has risen just 2.5%.

Forex traders will react directly to the data as it comes out in real time. Though crypto-investors will not be reacting in such a methodical way, they are being affected by the overall trend and certainly feel their pockets getting pinched by the flawed system that increasingly favors the ultra-wealthy at the expense of Mr. Joe Public.

What’s next on this CRYPTO Surge?

It’s been a powerful run in the crypto market, especially over the last few weeks. Traders seem to be taking turns with the different top cryptos buying up one at a time, in many cases doubling or tripling the value within a 48 hour window.

It started with Ether Classic, then Dash, then IOTA, then Litecoin, and last night we saw Ripple nearly double in 12 hours.

Here’s a few important updates that may drive prices going forward…

Internet giant eBay is now considering to add bitcoin!! = Huge news if they do it!!

UBS and several others using Ethereum for MiFID compliance. MiFID 2 is a huge deal right now in the financial world and many large banks have announced a pilot to start storing data on the Ethereum Blockchain.

Emergency Crypto Meeting in South Korea. South Korea is by far the largest buyer of cryptocurrencies. Updates about what will happen in this meeting on Friday are sure to move the markets.

Have an awesome day ahead!!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Trending