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China has Trump by the Bonds

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It’s earnings season on Wall Street and everyone is focused on the big banks.

Wells Fargo, Blackrock, and JP Morgan Chase will all report their fourth-quarter earnings today and the results will not be good.

Trading volumes have been incredibly low in the last half of 2017, both due to reduced fears about the economy and because many high-frequency traders have already moved to the crypto market.

It doesn’t matter though. At this point, the banks could plausibly report the worst losses in the history of capitalism and still see their stock go up.

Investors and analysts will be listening closely, and physically salivating, to the banker’s projections. Tax cuts are coming and investors want to know how much money the banks think they can make from it.

Tell us a sweet fairy tale of wonder and enchantment so we can sleep better at night and forget all about these historically high stock valuations.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

German Breakthrough (Euro)

China has Trump by the Bonds

Ripple’s Deal with MoneyGram

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of January 12th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

It’s a Breakthrough

Angela Merkel just reached a groundbreaking deal with her rivals the SPD party to form a grand coalition in the German Government. Everybody is excited and the Euro is flying. BUT… we’re not out of the woods just yet.

The SPD party will still need to vote on this and many of her members might prefer to see new elections rather than join Merkel’s government. So we’ll see how this plays out.

Enough of that though. Let’s take a look at the Euro-dollar, which is now trading at it’s highest level since 2014…

The DAX on the other hand seems less than excited. It’s been near it’s highest ever levels since November so this little tidbit was not enough to push it through the roof.

Bonds in Geopolitics

As we’ve been discussing earlier this week, the bond markets have been seeing some mild selling action. In a normal market, this wouldn’t be worrying but because the word ‘sell’ has become so rare on Wall Street lately it is making headlines.

What made bigger headlines though was that China was considering to stop buying bonds from the United States. These reports were later refuted by Chinse authorities and have since been tossed in the category labeled ‘fake news’.

It is interesting though. Bonds are how countries lend money to one another so the bond market can be seen through the lens of foreign debt. China is one of the US’s largest creditors at the moment. So if they stop buying, or worse, start to offload some of their bonds the US could be in a heap of trouble.

What’s suspicious here is the timing. Donald Trump has big plans and they won’t be cheap. After decreasing corporate taxes his income has now been stunted. So increased expenses and reduced income means that you need to borrow.

Trump is also ramping up his rhetoric against China. It was an essential part of his political victory in the elections and he’s itching to call them out on several issues already. So this bit of ‘fake news’ does actually come as a reminder or even a warning. Mess with the dragon and you will get burnt.

What’s Ripple’s Deal?

Ripple rejoiced yesterday as those who hodled through the Korean FUD were rewarded with a breakthrough in global payments relations.

Even though it’s only a pilot, just the fact that a major payment system like MoneyGram will be testing Ripple’s network is incredibly big news and even gives investors a taste for more news to come.

The great thing for hodlers is that the pilot will reportedly be using Ripple’s XRP tokens. This has been a soft spot for Ripple skeptics who say that Ripple’s success does not necessarily mean success for XRP since they could potentially form payment networks without these specific tokens.

The price shot up more than 20% within the first hour of the news.

The news comes at an excellent time as far as technical analysis is concerned and could potentially provide a floor for the price movement.

Here, take a look at the rally, and pullback. The level of $1.5 per token was a significant breakout level on the way up and now seems like a valid support level for the massive pullback.

Of course, cryptocurrencies are incredibly risk so it always pays to diversify and use proper money management as I’m sure many of our new clients have learned recently.

Let me know if you have any questions, comments or feedback. Have an amazing weekend ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 122 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. ronaldo18

    January 13, 2018 at 7:28 am

    clear analyses, thx.

  2. snow4me

    January 15, 2018 at 2:50 am

    Adoption is kill in the crypto market because it leads to credibility. I wondered why it took so long for Money Gram to do this… how much $$$ flows to Mexico alone in a weeks time?

  3. snow4me

    January 15, 2018 at 3:14 am

    MGI is moneygrams ticker. Gonna stick my big toe in that water tomorrow morning.

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Altcoins

Ethereum Price Rebounds from 14-Month Low; Long-Term Growth Still Intact, Says Co-Founder 

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Ethereum staged a large relief rally on Wednesday, as bargain hunters swept in to capitalize on extreme oversold conditions following a 35% weekly rout for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.

ETH/USD Update

The ether price surged 13.6% to $294, clawing back more than half the losses it incurred since Monday. Total trade volumes were $1.9 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

At current values, Ethereum has a total capitalization of $29.8 billion.

Momentum has returned to the ether trade, with the monthly relative strength index (RSI) improving to 67. Ethereum’s RSI plunged to single digits twice over the past eight days.

The broader cryptocurrency market improved to $208.4 billion on Wednesday, which is a reversal of nearly $20 billion from the recent swing low.

Long-Term Growth Trajectory Still Intact: Lubin

Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin isn’t concerned about the latest downtrend in cryptocurrency prices. In fact, he believes the market is in better health today now that speculative investments have died off and bubble conditions have eroded.

“We’ve seen six big bubbles, each more epic than the previous one, and each bubble is astonishing when they’re happening but when you look back they look like pimples on a chart,” Lubin, who currently serves as CEO of ConsenSys Inc., said during an interview with Bloomberg. “With each of these bubbles we have a tremendous surge of activity and that’s what we’re seeing right now.”

Lubin believes Ethereum will play a pivotal role in the future alongside hundreds of other blockchain networks. This view is shared by other industry leaders, such as Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and Ted Rogers of Xapo, who believe the vast majority of tokens will go to zero.

Arthur Hayes Rips Ethereum

BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes launched a scathing criticism of Ethereum in a recent post on Crypto Trader Digest, where he attributed the cryptocurrency’s growth to the highly speculative ICO boom.

In Hayes’ view, Ethereum will soon go “from a 3-digit to a 2-digit shitcoin.”

In the crypto community, a ‘shitcoin’ is a pejorative term that describes an altcoin that has become worthless.

As Hacked reported on Tuesday, a large-scale cash-out of ICOs appears to have sparked the recent leg of the crypto market downturn. At its lowest point on Tuesday, the cryptocurrency market cap was valued around $189 billion. That’s a $220 billion reversal from three months ago.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 546 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Altcoins

Why Investors Should Pay Attention to OmiseGO

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Decentralization is a word that receives a ton of lip service in the blockchain community, but some companies are actually doing an amazing job getting their actions to back their words. OmiseGO is one such company.

Omise was founded in 2013 as a payment services company, and OmiseGO is an extension platform that operates separately. It is important you not confuse the two.

As an ERC-20 token that operates a smart contract platform, OMG is a high-performing proof-of-stake protocol with a massive mission to bring decentralization to trading.

What Need is OmiseGO Fulfilling

Ripple was originally seen to be the top solution in the payment providers sector, but its lack of decentralization has shown that there are significant downsides to their operating model. OmiseGO aims to become a decentralized Ripple, but operating a high-powered decentralized exchange (DEX), and has already become the top name in on-chain and cross-chain transactions.

With decentralization and the ability to connect fragmented payment processors, OmiseGO would also be able to help the unbanked gain access to the banking system.

There is currently a massive gap in the legacy financial network, since payment networks (such as SWIFT) have unilateral control over the flow of financial services on their network. Paypal and Venmo have proven to have similar centralization risks, even if they bring some competition to the table.

Not only would OmiseGO decentralize payment processing and create a DEX, but they have released a software development kit (SDK) to enable the creation of new applications and wallets on their system.

Meet the OmiseGO Team

OmiseGO is run by a well-reputed team (headed by Jun Hasegawa) who in the past have been referred to as “Fintech Rockstars” by Forbes. Their advisory board is packed with big names like Vitalin Buterin, Gavin Wood, and Joseph Poon, to name a few.

By contributing $100,000 to the Ethereum foundations DEVGRANTS program, they have indicated a strong commitment to the future of Ethereum and their investment within the community.

Every token needs to have its utility, and OMG is paid to holders in exchange for validating transactions. These holders have the right to confirm blocks, and effectively work as income producing assets in the course of the operation of the network.

The incentives here lie in the value of the network. The more transactions that need to be validated, the more token holders will need to confirm transactions, and therefore the more money is likely to be distributed to OMG holders in exchange for their confirmations.

OmiseGO’s Recent Performance

OmiseGO is now trading at around $3.30 USD, which is down an incredible amount from its high above $24 USD in January. This has been typical of many assets in the industry, but could be a sign that OMG is oversold.

There has also been a lot of news about OMG recently. In July a partnership with Status was announced that would result with the integration of the services of the two companies. Status is an open source dapp (decentralized app) for phones and browsers, and was one of the first clients to be developed on the Ethereum blockchain. Their core project is to link mobile chat and social media by using Ethereum tokenization.

With the goal of ultimate decentralization, OmiseGO has its work cut out for it. Although founded in 2013, they are still in the early stages of their expansions. More good news came in early June, when OMG was listed on Unocoin, one of the top asian exchanges located in India.

OmiseGO’s dream of connecting all the disparate financial systems and rails gives it the potential to become the DEX of the future. The question is whether they can displace the already dominant Ripple by going in a different strategic direction and sticking to their core tenets of decentralization and trustless networks.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Altcoins

Bitcoin Price Defends $6,000 as Crypto Market Cap Returns Above $200 Billion

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Bitcoin rebounded sharply on Wednesday after a bear market breakdown dragged prices to within $100 of yearly lows. Although the technical indicators have improved, significant downside risks remain.

BTC/USD Update

Bitcoin’s price was up 4.6% on Bitfinex to trade at $6,483. The leading digital currency reached a session high of $6,483, having recovered more than 8% from Monday’s swing low. Bitcoin’s 24-hour trade volumes averaged $4.6 billion on Wednesday.

The $6,000 price point has emerged as an important support level for bitcoin. As Hacked previously reported, this level is not only psychologically significant, it represents more or less the break-even rate for miners.

The monthly technical chart shows improving conditions in the bitcoin price, though this should be taken with a grain of salt given the market’s extreme moves as of late.

At current levels, bitcoin has a total market capitalization of $109.8 billion, which represents 53.6% of the total cryptocurrency market.

Altcoins and tokens collectively rose by $8 billion on Wednesday to reach a total value of $94.4 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. The value of all digital assets was $204.6 billion.

The Market’s Next Move

Although predicting bitcoin’s next move is notoriously difficult, a successful defense of the $6,000 floor is an important step in facilitating the next rally. That the yearly low ($5,755) wasn’t breached during the latest downtrend suggests the bulls may be running out of steam.

That said, bitcoin’s dominance rate reveals structural weakness in the cryptocurrency market, not to mention damaged investor psychology. As Hacked reported Tuesday, cash-out from the ICO boom appears to be largely responsible for the latest reversal, a sign that investors were losing confidence in riskier assets. This is further corroborated by Ethereum’s dramatic selloff over the past seven days. The so-called developer’s cryptocurrency has been responsible for three-quarters of initial coin offerings.

According to BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, investors shouldn’t expect a large price recovery at this stage given the general lack of momentum, volume and stability in the market. Trading volumes – a key proxy for demand in the cryptocurrency market – averaged $13.4 billion on Wednesday, based on latest available data.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 546 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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