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Check Your Shadow

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Happy Groundhog Jobs Day!!

February 2nd is marked on many calendars as a uniquely superstitious holiday in which a rodent named Phil who lives in Pennsylvania will decide if we’re ready for Spring or if we get six more weeks of winter.

This tradition comes at an auspicious time for the financial markets. The irregularities in the bonds market have spread and are now worrying stock investors.

The jobs data coming from the US today could provide an omen for Wall Street. Will they step out of their hole with confidence or will they cower at the sight of their own shadow?

For those of you hodling cryptos as the main part of your portfolio, you could probably skip to the end, but you probably shouldn’t.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Bond’s Continue to Fall
  • NFP Jobs Day!!
  • Red Crypto Night

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of February 2nd. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

The Backdrop

At the moment, the US government has an outstanding debt level of approximately $20.6 trillion. Who do they owe all this money to??

Well, everyone. Governments borrow money in the form of bonds, which are paid back gradually over time. At the moment if you want to lend money to the United States for the next 10 years, they will pay you back an annual “yield” of 2.79%.

The reason this yield is so important is that US government debt is seen as a benchmark for most types of lending on the planet.

Even though this is the highest yield we’ve seen since early 2014, it’s really not that much historically. This graph from CNBC shows us the 10-year yield since 1954.

Of course, nobody is really worried about a yield of 2.8%. The problem here is the rate at which it’s rising and if the world is ready to see rates that are much higher.

Janet Yellen’s final words to us from the pulpit of the US Federal Reserve can be seen as a warning about inflation. If indeed it does come quickly, lending rates will go up. That’s when we’ll truly see how well this quantitative easing experiment really worked.

Jobs Numbers Today

At 1:30 PM GMT the United States will publish its monthly jobs report. As many of you know, this is usually the most highly watched statistic by the financial markets and has been known to cause huge moves in everything from the USD, to stocks, and commodities.

Analysts are expecting a strong number of more than 180,000 jobs added in January. If the number comes out on target or within 50,000 more or less, the reaction may be quite muted.

A pleasant surprise here could add some much-needed confidence to the stock market, which has been showing some serious signs of nervousness lately.


In addition, we’ll be watching the average hourly earnings. If salaries in the US start to increase quicker than expected it could spur on inflation.

Bitcoin Support

Selling continued overnight from the number one cryptotrading nation.

The good news is that volumes have spiked in Japan…

The not so good news is that much of this volume seems to be mostly on the short side.


The other good news is that the Sushi Premium has come down drastically and even reversed. The price per bitcoin in Japan is now cheaper than it is anywhere else in the world.

The action from South Korea on the other hand remains somewhat muted and the premiums are still slightly above the rest of the market.

As far as the technical analysis, we are now at the decision point that we’ve been speaking about for the last few weeks.

Here’s the chart we’ve been looking at with the three relevant levels…

As you can see, we’re now just below the breakout level (purple line) and resting on the 200 day moving average (yellow). The big test will be at the long term trend line (blue).

Of course, everyone draws their trend lines slightly differently. For the purpose of this analysis, I’ve tried to draw it as conservatively as possible. A small break below wouldn’t be much of an issue but if we do go much below this line we could very well be heading for 6 more weeks of hodling winter.

Have an amazing weekend!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation. The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro. Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose. Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 133 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. gran

    February 2, 2018 at 1:16 pm

    I paid you the membership and it’s something I regretted a long time ago, but lately your analyzes are very bad, I do not know what you’re basing yourself on or if you’re doing your work with your eyes closed or if it’s a kind of manipulation that you are doing to obtain benefits from your own subscribers or do not know what is happening, but you are missing more than a newbie, take a vacation and clear your mind.

    Te pague la membresia y es algo de lo cual me arrepenti hace mucho mucho tiempo, mas ultimamente tus analisis estan bien malos, no se en que te estas basando o si estas haciendo tu trabajo con los ojos cerrados o si es una especie de manipulacion que estas realizando para obtener beneficios de tus propios suscriptores o no se bien que es lo que esta pasando, pero estas errando mas que un novato, tomate unas vacaciones y despeja tu mente.

    • embersburnbrightly

      February 2, 2018 at 4:27 pm

      Could you please be more specific on what he is missing, in your opinion? Mati has been right on the money for the vast majority of the time so, as per my experience over the past six months or so.

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Altcoins

Minor Bounce Lifts Crypto Market Cap Above $211 Billion; Tether Circulation Plummets

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Crypto prices traded modestly higher on Sunday, as bitcoin regained its footing above $6,500 and major altcoins avoided further losses.

Market Update

The cryptocurrency market capitalization on Sunday peaked at $212 billion, the highest in five days. At the time of writing, the market was valued at $211.5 billion.

Most assets ranked in the top-20 had reported minor gains over the last 24 hours, a period marked by lower trade volumes. The bitcoin price has returned above $6,500 on trade volumes of just $3.2 billion. The leading digital currency continues to trade at a premium on Bitfinex.

Meanwhile, Ethereum rose half a percent to $206. XRP also climbed 0.5% to $0.459. Bitcoin cash was last seen trading above $449 for a gain of 1.6%.

Stellar XLM was the only top-ten coin not to report gains at the time of writing. However, the no. 6 coin by market cap has returned more than 13% over the past week, far outpacing the broader market.

Trade volumes have declined steadily over the past week, as markets re-balanced following a sudden spike on Oct. 15. Digital exchange volumes have fallen to $9.7 billion on Sunday, according to CoinMarketCap.

Tether Market Cap Plunges

Since the start of October, Tether has pulled more than $600 million worth of USDT out of circulation, leading to a sharp drop in the stablecoin’s market cap. Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, which is run by the same executive in charge of Tether Limited, appears to be leading in the offload of USDT tokens. As CCN recently reported, Bitfinex has initiated six transfers of USDT funds to the Tether Treasury this month. The latest transfer was initiated on Wednesday when Bitfinex sent 50 million USDT to the Treasury.

Most of the outflows from Bitfinex occurred long before USDT lost its peg to the dollar in a single-day crash on Oct. 15. USDT briefly fell below $0.90 that day before quickly recovering around $0.94. Currently, one USDT is equivalent to $0.984 U.S., according to CoinMarketCap. Some exchanges are quoting USDT as low as $0.96 on Sunday.

The sudden decline in Tether’s circulation comes at a time when the company is facing heightened scrutiny over its dollar-backed reserves. An influx of alternative stablecoins offering greater transparency and regulatory oversight may also be undercutting demand for USDT.

Case in point: the Gemini Exchange’s GUSD stablecoin reached a high of $1.19 on Tuesday before settling around parity against the dollar. Unlike USDT, the Gemini Dollar has obtained regulatory approval from the New York Department of Financial Services. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Tether has been subpoenaed by federal regulators over its connection with Bitfinex and failure to prove its dollar reserves.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 649 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Bitcoin

Volatility Ahead For Bitcoin Price as Global Trade Volumes Drop Sharply

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The global cryptocurrency trade volume took a sharp dip on Saturday evening, falling by half a billion in just five hours. The fall from $10.5 billion to $10 billion pushes the global total closer to yearly lows, and could be a sign that volatility is just around the corner – be it for good or bad.

Falling Trade Volumes

The decline in trade volumes hadn’t made itself felt in the global market cap at the time of writing, as Bitcoin and the majority of altcoins continue to trade sideways.

But for how much longer? Every time global volumes have dipped to the $9 billion mark in the last few months, it has been accompanied by either a tremendous market surge, or terrible market dip.

When a market loses trade volume, it becomes very easy to manipulate. This can be seen most easily among various altcoins in the lower ends of the market cap rankings every day.

As for Bitcoin, its own trade volumes dropped from $3.7 billion to $3.4 billion. The last time any real volatility hit BTC was when trade volumes dropped below the $3 billion mark. That applies to Monday’s Tether-induced spike; it applies to the 40% spike seen in July of this year, and it also applies to the 15% flash dip that struck in mid June.

BTC/USD

In the previous twenty-four period leading up to Saturday evening, BTC continued to trade in a remarkably tight range. Opening the day at $6,400 and closing the same twenty-four period at $6,400 has been the case for almost a month and a half now.

The occasional rise to $6,700 and dip to $6,200 means BTC has traded within a $500 range for the last fifty or so days, and marks one of the least volatile periods in Bitcoin’s history.

The same can be said for most of the major altcoins, except those which had major breakouts based on promising news and developments. As of Saturday evening (UTC), every coin the market cap top twenty except two recorded less than a 1% swing either way for the day.

Only Zcash (ZEC), which is hotly anticipating the enactment of its upcoming Sapling hardfork, and IOTA (MIOTA) – which is making headlines for its supposedly imminent move into Venezuela, have recorded clear gains of any kind.

As it stands, BTC appears to have found a fairly reliable level near the $6,000 range – which it hasn’t fallen below since October of 2017, almost a year ago exactly. At the current price, BTC could afford to take another 5% flash dip and still be holding strong near $6,000, although the subsequent hit on the altcoin market would be more severe.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 81 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Still in Deadlock

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The choppy, directionless period in the cryptocurrency segment continues, with no meaningful change in the technical setups of the major coins. While the broader trends are still clearly bearish and sellers remain in control of the market, we saw another minor bullish shift in the past 24 hours, with modest gains across the board.

Most of the top coins are trading in the range of the Monday session, which saw the spike triggered by the turmoil in Tether. Stellar is the apparent positive outlier of the past few days, while Dash, Litecoin, and Ethereum have been the weakest so far this week.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a positive note, all of the majors remain above last week’s levels, and especially Bitcoin’s continued stability is encouraging for crypto-bulls here, even as our trend model paints a negative picture of the segment.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin avoided a test of the $6275 level despite moving below its recent very narrow trading range yesterday, with still no meaningful bearish or bullish momentum present in the coin’s market. BTC continues to trade below the $6500 level, and its volatility is very low, even after the move below the previously dominant broad triangle consolidation pattern.

Further resistance levels are still ahead near $6750 and $7000, while support levels below $6275 are found near $600, $5850 and between $5000 and $5100.

Altcoins Little Changed as Ethereum Still Glued to $200

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The weekend has been very quiet for altcoins so far, with even the recently active Ripple settling down near the $0.46 level. XRP is around the midpoint of Monday’ s range but the lack of follow-through after the breakout from the triangle consolidation pattern is a negative sign, and the coin remains on a short-term sell signal in our trend model. Strong resistance is still ahead at $0.51, $0.54, $0.57, while support is found near $0.42, $0.375, and $0.35.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to hover around the $200 price level still being in bearish short- and long-term patterns and the relative weakness of the second largest coin remains a huge concern for the whole segment.

With no evidence of meaningful capital inflows to the market, the outlook is neutral at best, and traders and investors should wait for at least a short-term trend change before entering new positions. Strong support is found near $180, $170, and $160, while resistance is ahead near $235 and $260.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS is also among the relatively weaker coins, and the coin is stuick in a broad Trading range around the $5.35 level since August. Volatility in the coin’s market has been progressively declining, but the vicinity of the bear market low suggests that the long-term downtrend is still intact, especially given the segment-wide trends.

A test of the lows is still more likely than a bullish break-out, with strong support found near $4.50 and key resistance ahead near $6 and $6.5.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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