Connect with us

Bitcoin

Check Your Shadow

Published

on

Happy Groundhog Jobs Day!!

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

February 2nd is marked on many calendars as a uniquely superstitious holiday in which a rodent named Phil who lives in Pennsylvania will decide if we’re ready for Spring or if we get six more weeks of winter.

This tradition comes at an auspicious time for the financial markets. The irregularities in the bonds market have spread and are now worrying stock investors.

The jobs data coming from the US today could provide an omen for Wall Street. Will they step out of their hole with confidence or will they cower at the sight of their own shadow?

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD. Click here to change your current membership -- //

For those of you hodling cryptos as the main part of your portfolio, you could probably skip to the end, but you probably shouldn’t.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Bond’s Continue to Fall
  • NFP Jobs Day!!
  • Red Crypto Night

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of February 2nd. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

The Backdrop

At the moment, the US government has an outstanding debt level of approximately $20.6 trillion. Who do they owe all this money to??

Well, everyone. Governments borrow money in the form of bonds, which are paid back gradually over time. At the moment if you want to lend money to the United States for the next 10 years, they will pay you back an annual “yield” of 2.79%.

The reason this yield is so important is that US government debt is seen as a benchmark for most types of lending on the planet.

Even though this is the highest yield we’ve seen since early 2014, it’s really not that much historically. This graph from CNBC shows us the 10-year yield since 1954.

Of course, nobody is really worried about a yield of 2.8%. The problem here is the rate at which it’s rising and if the world is ready to see rates that are much higher.

Janet Yellen’s final words to us from the pulpit of the US Federal Reserve can be seen as a warning about inflation. If indeed it does come quickly, lending rates will go up. That’s when we’ll truly see how well this quantitative easing experiment really worked.

Jobs Numbers Today

At 1:30 PM GMT the United States will publish its monthly jobs report. As many of you know, this is usually the most highly watched statistic by the financial markets and has been known to cause huge moves in everything from the USD, to stocks, and commodities.

Analysts are expecting a strong number of more than 180,000 jobs added in January. If the number comes out on target or within 50,000 more or less, the reaction may be quite muted.

A pleasant surprise here could add some much-needed confidence to the stock market, which has been showing some serious signs of nervousness lately.


In addition, we’ll be watching the average hourly earnings. If salaries in the US start to increase quicker than expected it could spur on inflation.

Bitcoin Support

Selling continued overnight from the number one cryptotrading nation.

The good news is that volumes have spiked in Japan…

The not so good news is that much of this volume seems to be mostly on the short side.


The other good news is that the Sushi Premium has come down drastically and even reversed. The price per bitcoin in Japan is now cheaper than it is anywhere else in the world.

The action from South Korea on the other hand remains somewhat muted and the premiums are still slightly above the rest of the market.

As far as the technical analysis, we are now at the decision point that we’ve been speaking about for the last few weeks.

Here’s the chart we’ve been looking at with the three relevant levels…

As you can see, we’re now just below the breakout level (purple line) and resting on the 200 day moving average (yellow). The big test will be at the long term trend line (blue).

Of course, everyone draws their trend lines slightly differently. For the purpose of this analysis, I’ve tried to draw it as conservatively as possible. A small break below wouldn’t be much of an issue but if we do go much below this line we could very well be heading for 6 more weeks of hodling winter.

Have an amazing weekend!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation. The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro. Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose. Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
13 votes, average: 4.69 out of 513 votes, average: 4.69 out of 513 votes, average: 4.69 out of 513 votes, average: 4.69 out of 513 votes, average: 4.69 out of 5 (13 votes, average: 4.69 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 85 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




Feedback or Requests?

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. gran

    February 2, 2018 at 1:16 pm

    I paid you the membership and it’s something I regretted a long time ago, but lately your analyzes are very bad, I do not know what you’re basing yourself on or if you’re doing your work with your eyes closed or if it’s a kind of manipulation that you are doing to obtain benefits from your own subscribers or do not know what is happening, but you are missing more than a newbie, take a vacation and clear your mind.

    Te pague la membresia y es algo de lo cual me arrepenti hace mucho mucho tiempo, mas ultimamente tus analisis estan bien malos, no se en que te estas basando o si estas haciendo tu trabajo con los ojos cerrados o si es una especie de manipulacion que estas realizando para obtener beneficios de tus propios suscriptores o no se bien que es lo que esta pasando, pero estas errando mas que un novato, tomate unas vacaciones y despeja tu mente.

    • embersburnbrightly

      February 2, 2018 at 4:27 pm

      Could you please be more specific on what he is missing, in your opinion? Mati has been right on the money for the vast majority of the time so, as per my experience over the past six months or so.

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Analysis

Crypto Update: Ethereum Back Above $700 as Coins Rise but Buy Signals Still Lacking

Published

on

The major cryptocurrencies are all sporting gins today, with Ethereum, EOS, Stellar, and Monero leading the way higher percentage-wise. Despite the rally, the short-term technical setup is unchanged in most cases, with the top coins still on neutral trend signals, and with no buy signals having been triggered just yet.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

From a technical standpoint, Ethereum is still clearly the coin to watch, as the price of the ETH token rose back above $700 today, showing relative strength yet again, getting close to a short-term buy signal.  While a signal is not confirmed yet, a break out from the bullish corrective pattern could be near.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD. Click here to change your current membership -- //

The coin faces strong resistance between $735 and $780, with targets above that at $845 and $900, while support is found between $625 and $645 and between $555 and $575. We still advise traders to wait before entering new positions here, even as the correction lows are likely in.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is still stuck below the key $8400-$8700 zone after it hit another marginal new correction low near $7900. Although BTC is not a buy signal, the downside momentum is fading and the coin could be close to a breakout of the correction pattern, despite its recent relative weakness. Strong support is still found between $7650 and $7800, while resistance is ahead between $9000 and $9200, $10,000, and $10,500.

New Leadership yet to Form

IOT/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the leaders of the April rally are trading consistently with an ongoing uptrend, for now, there are no standout performers spearheading the rally among the majors. EOS is still holding up above the $12 while the other prior leader IOTA is also trading above key support at $1.7 but without clear bullish momentum. Should the coin move above the $1.9 resistance, the short-term trend signal would switch to buy, but as of now, the corrective pattern is intact.

As the long-term charts are looking more constructive after the pullback, long-term investors could soon be looking for entry points,  while traders could also get buy singles in the coming days.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
3 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 5 (3 votes, average: 4.67 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.5 stars on average, based on 253 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure as Divergence Deepens

Published

on

The segment has been drifting lower in a choppy fashion ever since our latest look at the long-term charts and the two-faced nature of the market is still apparent. Bitcoin and the other relatively weak majors, like Litecoin, Monero, Dash, and NEO are clearly lagging the leaders from a technical standpoint, while Ethereum is still the most positive out of the largest coins.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

The leaders of the rally are still holding up above the crucial support levels, keeping the recovery intact but as the overbought long-term readings are mostly cleared, the coins should start to show signs of bottoming soon. For now, we advise traders and investors to remain on the sidelines in the case of the majority of the coins until the short- and long-term time frames show conflicting trends.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Bitcoin didn’t reach a severely overbought momentum reading as the move above $10,000 failed, and the coin started a correction off that level and dropped below the $8400 support in the process. The short-term corrective pattern is intact, while the long-term MACD is in neutral territory again.  Key long-term support is found just above $7650 and in the $6150-$6250 zone while further resistance is ahead between $9000 and $9200 and near $10,000.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum is holding up above the $625-$625 support zone, within a short-term correction pattern, while the long-term momentum indicators are still above neutral territory. The trend signals are neutral in case of the second largest coin, and traders and investors should wait before entering new positions. Resistance zones are ahead between $735 and $780 and near $845, while support is found between $555 and $575.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
7 votes, average: 5.00 out of 57 votes, average: 5.00 out of 57 votes, average: 5.00 out of 57 votes, average: 5.00 out of 57 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5 (7 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.5 stars on average, based on 253 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Altcoins

Cryptocurrency Prices Approach One-Month Lows as Altcoins Plunge, Bitcoin Falls Below $8,000

Published

on

Crypto prices were down sharply at the start of Friday trading, with the total market capitalization falling $22 billion over the past 24 hours.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

Market Update

At the time of writing, cryptocurrencies were collectively valued at $361.6 billion, according to the latest data from CoinMarketCap. The asset class peaked above $391 billion roughly 20 hours ago.

Trading volumes slipped to roughly $18.8 billion, with Hong Kong and South Korean exchanges accounting for the largest share of total activity.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Like previous declines, the bulk of the losses were concentrated in the altcoin class, allowing bitcoin to boost its market share to nearly 38%.

Bitcoin prices breached the $8,000 floor early Friday, with prices shedding 4.8% to $7,974.

In terms of percentage losses, IOTA was the worst performing cryptocurrency in the top-ten. The coin shed 13% to $1.67.

Bitcoin cash continued its post-fork decline, with prices shedding 9.1% to $1,183. BCH is currently trading near its lowest level in a month.

Ethereum prices declined 6.6% to $664. Ripple’s native XRP currency was down more than 7% at $0.658.

Cryptocurrencies are on track for their second consecutive weekly decline, with prices shedding nearly 14% from last Friday.

New Study Quantifies Bitcoin Mining Energy Consumption

The first peer-reviewed study examining bitcoin’s energy consumption was released Wednesday, and the results aren’t endearing.

Research that appeared in a monthly publication by Cell Press estimates that bitcoin mining consumes at least 2.6GW of power, which is equivalent to the entire electric power grid harnessed by the Republic of Ireland. The report, titled Bitcoin’s Growign Energy Problem, predicts that power consumption from mining could reach 7.7GW before the end of 2018. That’s roughly the same amount as electric that Austria currently requires.

Author Alex de Vries made it clear in his report that the numbers he is using are speculative given the decentralized and secretive nature of the mining industry. The paper shows that current energy consumption could be as low as 2.6GW if we factor in the latest and most efficient mining hardware from Bitmain.

The so-called energy problem associated with bitcoin is expected to become more cumbersome as the network’s size increases. Some have speculated that mining could account for 5% of global energy consumption in the future.

Globetrotting crypto miners are constantly on the look out for the best energy deals, especially in the wake of China’s ban on the practice. Interestingly, several countries have stepped forward to highlight their favorable energy policies toward miners.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
3 votes, average: 5.00 out of 53 votes, average: 5.00 out of 53 votes, average: 5.00 out of 53 votes, average: 5.00 out of 53 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5 (3 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.5 stars on average, based on 404 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending