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Can EOS Overcome the Bear Market?

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Since concluding its year-long crowdsale, EOS has quickly emerged as one of the world’s leading cryptocurrencies. This was highlighted not only by its rapid growth during the bear market, but by its ability to attract hundreds of developers and enterprises to its protocol. As the bear market drags on, there are several compelling reasons why EOS could have staying power in an industry facing constant pressure and change. (Note: the author has no investment stake in EOS or its parent company, Block.one).

EOS: A Look at the Benefits

Block.one, the company behind EOS, recently published four reasons why developers are migrating to the EOSIO protocol. They include scalability (15-20 transactions per second), speed (very low latency compared to other blockchains), practically zero fees (eliminates the need for transaction costs) and environmental sustainability (66,000 times more efficient than bitcoin).

Against this backdrop, there are at least 260 projects being built on top of the EOS platform, a strong sign that the Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS) model was appealing to a wider range of developers. Although the company didn’t elaborate on the types of projects being deployed, the general view among industry is that EOS allows users with very little technical background to leverage blockchain technology.

At the same time, EOS’ strong development capacity has been well documented by industry observers and even government entities. A widely consumed blockchain index developed by the Chinese government has routinely ranked EOS as the world’s top cryptocurrency based on technology, application and innovation. As of December, EOS had once again dominated the ranking with a total index score that was nearly 20 points higher than Ethereum, the second-best cryptocurrency based on the same value metrics.

EOS was designed with scalability in mind. As such, it is a direct competitor to Ethereum, whose shaky position may have pushed developers toward EOS and other protocols. In fact, decentralized application volumes on Tron and EOS have already overtaken Ethereum by a considerable margin. (The author would argue that EOS has a much stronger value proposition than Tron for reasons too numerous to name here.) According to Dapp Radar, the largest Ethereum dapp by volume is ranked 37th, with EOS and Tron accounting for the first 36 spots.

The EOS blockchain is also well funded, with the network paying for development through a maximum 5% inflation. A portion of that is earmarked for block producers but token holders get to decide on how the rest is allocated. Options include burning tokens to reduce overall inflation or allocating funds to pay for popular projects.

A Look at the Risks

While no blockchain project is without risk, EOS faces several unique challenges that have been well documented by the cryptocurrency community. Concerns about voting cartels, block-producer incentives and even regulatory scrutiny have weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Those fears have been exacerbated by the second-longest bear market in crypto history.

EOS creator Dan Larimer has more or less admitted that he botched the protocol’s constitution by giving the network arbitrator too much power. In proposing a new constitution last summer, Larimer said, “I have learned a lot about human nature by watching the disputes, the witch hunts, the ‘bring everything before the ECAF mindset.” ECAF is the EOS Core Arbitration Forum.

The platform recently launched the EOSGO referendum tool, which some analysts speculate may result in constitutional changes. In the meantime, a group of EOS developers have already joined hands to create a new alliance for collaborative decision making. According to the official EOS Alliance website, the group “will be held accountable to the community under the EOS Constitution.”

Read: Spiral of Bad Incentives: EOS Block Producers No Longer In Profit.

EOS has also faced controversy over allegations of irregular block producer voting, which critics say undermine the network’s “free and democratic election process.” Evidence purporting to show voter collusion involving Huobi, a Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange, and other block producers surfaced last fall, forcing Block.one to take decisive measures to end the so-called voting cartel.

Then there’s the issue of EOS’ original funding mechanism, which managed to raise $4 billion in a highly irregular, year-long crowdsale. EOS may have skirted federal scrutiny during its token sale, but that could change if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chooses to re-evaluate the ICO. That’s the view of Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano.

Speaking at a press conference in Edinburgh, Scotland in November, Hoskinson predicted that the SEC will bring punitive measures against Block.One for its “egregious” token sale.

Market Update

EOS has not been immune to the bear market inflicting all cryptocurrencies. Despite demonstrating inverse trading patterns during the early stage of the bear market – namely, after the cryptocurrency was launched – EOS has more or less traded in the general direction of its peers.

The EOS price has declined nearly 50% since mid-November. The total cryptocurrency market cap has declined by roughly the same over that period.

At the time of writing, EOS/USD was valued at $2.43, having gained 3.3% compared with Tuesday. At current prices, EOS has a total market cap of $2.2 billion, placing it fourth among active blockchain projects.

Daily trade volumes amounted to $666 million, which is fairly consistent over the past week. Bibox is the largest market for EOS, with trades against Ethereum accounting for 12% of total market volumes.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 770 rated postsChief Editor to Hacked.com and Contributor to CCN.com, Sam Bourgi has spent the past nine years focused on economics, markets and cryptocurrencies. His work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Avid crypto watchers and those with a libertarian persuasion can follow him on twitter at @hsbourgi




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Another Spike Fails in Crypto-Land

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The major cryptocurrencies continue to follow the pattern which consists of sudden spikes followed by choppy sideways periods. Today, the top coins jumped higher, with the strongest currencies testing their recent swing highs, but the move quickly failed. The market continues to be dominated by low liquidity and the bearish long-term forces, making it difficult to make money trading the long side.

That said, the short-term break-outs, which were formed one week ago, remain intact and our trend model is also on short-term buy signals in the case of the relatively stronger coins. Despite the buy signals, traders should remain cautious with new positions, as the long-term forces continue to work against bulls here.

The leadership of last week’s move continues to be weak and without a new batch of coins hitting new short-term highs, it’s hard to see what could propel the market higher. The top 3 coins haven’t been able to pull their weight either, so odds clearly favor the continuation of the bear market from a broader perspective.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin remains stuck below the $3600 level despite today’s spike, and the bearish drift that started last week in the coin continues. BTC’s relative weakness is a negative sign for the whole segment, and although it’s still above the support/resistance zone just north of $3450, the long-term setup continues to point of the $3250 and $300o support levels.

That said, the short-term buy signal is still in place in our trend model, and traders could open small, speculative positions in BTC, with strong resistance zones being ahead near $3850 and between $4000 and $4050.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple has also been showing relative weakness in recent days, and today it dipped back below the key $0.30 support/resistance level following the failed rally attempt. While the coin once again avoided a move towards the next main level of interest at $0.28, it is still likely to violate that level and test the August low near $0.26.

With that in mind, traders should stay away from XRP, with our trend also being on short- and long-term trend signals, and barring a move above $0.32, the immediate outlook is also negative, with further resistance levels ahead near $0.3550 and $0.3750.

Litecoin Tests $44 Level Again as Ethereum Clings to $120

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

After settling down near the $41 price level, last week’s star LTC spiked as high as $44 today, but it failed to break-out above the key resistance zone. While the break-out remains intact and the MACD indicator still only points to a correction, the market-wide trends remain negative, and the previously leading coin hasn’t shown signs of relative strength in the last couple of days.

Traders could still hold their positions here even though a swing low is not yet confirmed, but strict rsik management rules should still be applied. A move back below $38 would trigger a downgrade in our trend model, which is still on a short-term buy signal. Above the initial resistance at $44, further levels are ahead near the recent swing high near $46 and at $51, while support below $38 is found near $34.50 and between $30 and $30.50.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum has been trading in a narrow range today and the recent short-term swing high capped the rally attempt in the second largest coin. While the coin is still holding on to most of its gains from last week, trading well above the $112 level, the lack of bullish follow-through is a negative sign even regarding the short-term outlook.

The hostile long-term setup raises the odds of a failed short-term rally, and although pour trend model remains on a short-term buy signal, traders should only consider small, speculative positions here. The $120 level continues to be at the center of attention, with another strong resistance above that being found near $130, while further support is found in the $95-$100 zone.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 465 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

XRP Price Analysis: XRP/USD Could be in Serious Trouble as Test of Major Support Back in Play

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  • Ripple’s XRP price is seen trading marginally in negative territory towards the latter part of Friday, with XRP/USD heading for a weekly closure in the red.
  • Ripple has announced a newly improved XRP Ledger 1.2.0 for improved censorship resistance.

XRP/USD: Recent Price Behaviour

Ripple’s XRP price continues to cool, running towards is a third consecutive session in the red as the bulls fail to sustain any upside. XRP/USD has dropped more than 5% over the mentioned period, with the bears set to the test the big psychological $0.3000 mark once again. The price had not traded below this area since 8th February, when it received a chunky amount of buying pressure.

Ripple Announces Newly Improved XRP Ledger 1.2.0

Ripple, the San-Francisco-based blockchain startup, released an updated version of its XRP ledger 1.2.0. The update is expected to significantly improve user experience, in addition to expanding upon the range of services within its offering.

Details provided by the Ripple team suggest that this update has seen its resistance to censorship improve. In other words, a single entity will not be able to decide success or fail. No one will have the ability to alter any transaction once added to the ledger.

Moreover, the upgrade has introduced the MultiSignReserve amendment. Ripple has further streamlined the process, reducing the number of barriers for those involved in signing the transactions. The amendment will now allow just a reverse of 5 XRP, in comparison to the prior of between 15-50 XRP.

The blockchain startup has also announced a bounty program, inviting developers to review their updates in the new version. Should any vulnerabilities or errors be detected, Ripple will reward those who communicate such to them.

Users of the ledger should update to the latest version before 27th February 2019. It is critical that users complete the upgrade, as the server will not be able to determine the authenticity of the ledger. Without the upgrade, transactions will not process and cannot be submitted.

Technical Review – XRP/USD

XRP/USD daily chart.

Last week, the XRP/USD bulls managed significant double-digit gains of around 11%, breaking out of a descending wedge pattern formation. The bearish structure had contained price action since the back-end of December 2018. It was forced to drop around 30% while moving within this wedge after such a promising initial recovery started from the middle of December.

In terms of support to the downside, eyes will be on a retest of the upper part of the wedge pattern. It can be seen tracking around the high-mid $0.28000 region. A significant buying area is also in proximity, ranging from $0.3000 to $0.2500; an area that has on several occasions proven to attract decent sized buyers. Any failure of this providing necessary comfort will expose $0.2000 as the next target.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 123 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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The “Accessibility Premium”: How Coinbase’s Overseas Expansion Could Affect Crypto Prices

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The accessibility premium refers to the affect on a cryptocurrency’s price when it is added to Coinbase. The $8 billion valued exchange is now looking to expand beyond its U.S-based institutional trading business to offer institutional services worldwide. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and Litecoin may end up being the greatest beneficiaries. These cryptocurrencies could gain from increased accessibility; the new “Coinbase Effect”.

In 2018, as the exchange added more cryptocurrencies, some writers wrote about a perceived “Coinbase Effect”, like Ari Paul. They theorize about an “accessibility premium”, in which those crypto-assets that are more accessible rise in price. With Coinbase bringing crypto to worldwide investors, it could bolster demand for those coins that are listed on the San Francisco-based “Goldman Sachs of Crypto”. They would be more accessible. When a new cryptocurrency or token hit the exchange, traders might expect a bump in price. 

On May 3, 2017 Coinbase integrated Litecoin, resulting in a 30% increase in the price. When Coinbase listed Bitcoin Cash on December 19, 2017, trading on global exchanges skyrocketed. Bitcoin cash closed at $4,000. Two days prior, its price had been $2,200. Volume increased from $2.5 billion on December 18 to nearly $12 billion on December 20 for a 380% increase.

Coinbase added Ethereum on July 21, 2016, resulting in a modest 14% rally. Things changed when Brave browser’s token, BAT, launched on Coinbase. It declined in price. Further data is needed to know the truthful dynamics. By the time BAT was listed, the price of crypto had long since started a consolidation, leaving sentiment low.

Fast forward Q1 2019, and Coinbase is expanding overseas. It is laying down infrastructure for the long-term as it looks towards Asian markets, amid moves to attract international institutional money to cryptocurrency trading. (Coinbase’s product GDAX offers US-based institutional trading) New traders might find Coinbase’s familiarity welcoming. Higher volumes would be to expected for the cryptocurrencies offered by the Silicon Valley giant. 

So, the popular exchange is undergoing an extensive expansion. Coinbase customers residing outside of the U.S. can now trade without a domestic bank account. This could be a boon to the prices of cryptos offered by Coinbase, led by Bitcoin.

There has been discussion about the correlation between simplicity and demand. Opinions on the effect ease of use has on demand are not entirely aligned. As Donald Norman says in his book “Living with Complexity”:

… the so-called demand for simplicity is a myth whose time has passed, if it ever existed.

Make it simple and people won’t buy. Given a choice, they will take the item that does more.

Features win over simplicity, even when people realize that features mean more complexity. You do too, I’ll bet. Haven’t you ever compared two products side by side, feature by feature, and preferred the one that did more? …

Would you pay more money for a washing machine with fewer controls? In the abstract, maybe. At the store, probably not.

Ultimately, Norman argues for managed complexity. But, the demand for simplicity – or at least clarity – seems logical in a chaotic, complex world. In a blog on their website called “The Customer Demand for Pervasive Simplicity”, Cisco writes of this perception, and how it tailors its products towards this end.

A bastion of crypto-simplicity, Coinbase has long courted institutional investors in the U.S., but now its targets are clearly set on a global institutional book. The stage is set for crypto’s first truly global exchange, though Coinbase will need to first successfully assimilate into new countries, with their unique business practices languages, laws, and regulations. Currently, differing regulations in different countries keep crypto’s exchange ecosystem quite regional.

Coinbase holds 5 percent of all bitcoin, 8 percent of all ethereum, and 25 percent of all litecoin in circulation in cold storage. Its success overseas would likely underpin their prices if the “accessibility premium” holds true.

Marcus Hughes, recently appointed as lead counsel for Coinbase in the United Kingdom, has been tasked with overseeing cross-border expansion: “Coinbase takes the long view on bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency prices,” Hughes said, “We need to move beyond the speculation phase of bitcoin and cryptocurrency to the utility phase.”

He added: “The utility phase will mean bitcoin and crypto becomes more widely accepted and understood.”

This solidifies bullish sentiment from the exchange which will be strengthened should it be successful in its bid to attract ‘big money’, not just from a core user base in the U.S. but also from thriving crypto markets in countries such as Japan.

Coinbase reports that, “In the past twelve months, hundreds of crypto-first hedge funds have launched around the world, and many hundreds more traditional institutions have begun [actively trading digital assets]. High-volume clients across Asia will now have access to Coinbase’s flagship trading platforms for institutions. As part of this rollout, we now support inbound and outbound international (SWIFT) wire transfers, allowing Coinbase clients in Asia to fund their accounts from non-US bank holdings.”

Coinbase predicts a bright future for digital currency in Asia, it says, and looks to enter into a market that could help it to cement a role as one of the global leaders in crypto trading. But there remains a big question mark over cryptocurrencies, prominently over how regulation is going to play a role.

Marcus Hughes opines that this year will see a “massive change” for global bitcoin regulation. He says that Europe will gradually lead the way out of a “crypto winter” into regulated digital currency markets with more potential for long-term stability. But, in the short term, irrational trading might paint an entirely different picture. 

As we see Coinbase invest in the long-term it bolsters confidence in a currently inhospitable climate for bitcoin. Should prices continue to fluctuate market sentiment may dip, but it is the notion of institutional money that may serve to give cryptocurrency markets much-needed price stability. 

Image: David McBee, Pexels

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsJustin O'Connell is the founder of financial technology focused CryptographicAsset.com. Justin organized the launch of the largest Bitcoin ATM hardware and software provider in the world at the historical Hotel del Coronado in southern California. His works appear in the U.S.'s third largest weekly, the San Diego Reader, VICE and elsewhere.




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