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Buy AT&T for a Steady Dividend Income

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We believe that current fall in AT&T (NYSE: T) is a good buying opportunity for the investors who want to own dividend stocks. At the current levels, the stock offers an attractive dividend yield of 5.73%. The stock is also likely to show capital appreciation in the long-term. Therefore, we recommend a long position in AT&T at the current levels.

Key takeaways

  1. AT&T’s sharp slide offers an attractive entry opportunity in a dividend aristocrat
  2. AT&T and Time Warner deal is likely to be delayed, but should go through
  3. AT&T’s debt is a concern
  4. For the near to medium-term, the dividend raises should continue

The stock is down about 20% year-to-date. Such a fall, especially in a dividend aristocrat, is because of concerns on the continuation of dividend payouts. Therefore, let’s analyze the stock’s financials and its business to determine whether it’s a value trap or an attractive buying opportunity at the current levels.

Dividend paying history of AT&T

Dividend Aristocrats are companies that have increased payouts for 25 consecutive years. AT&T is part of that distinguished list, as it has increased dividends for 33 straight years. It managed to keep its record intact even during the dotcom bubble and the financial crisis, which gives us confidence. Until the situation turns grim, the company will continue raising its dividend and retain its name in the distinguished list.

Well, if it is such a no brainer, the price of the stock shouldn’t have plunged. There must be certain concerns, which have led the investors to sell the stock. Let’s evaluate them.

The Justice department is opposing the AT&T and Time Warner deal

AT&T operates in a capital-intensive sector where growth has already peaked. Therefore, in order to grow, the companies resort to mergers and acquisitions. In 2015, AT&T completed the purchase of DirecTV – the largest pay TV provider – for about $49 billion. Just a year later, the company agreed to buy Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) for about $85 billion.

The huge content of Time Warner – owner of CNN, HBO and Warner Bros. – and the reach of AT&T has great synergy. The deal was initially expected to close by the end of this year but the Justice Department is opposing the deal. Therefore, AT&T’s chief financial officer, John Stephens said during a recent investor conference that “the timing of the closing of the deal is now uncertain.”

Nevertheless, the executives of the two companies are unlikely to give up without a fight, as they believe that the Justice Department doesn’t have the legal grounds to deny this deal. The final outcome is likely to be decided in the court of law.

Huge debt even if Time Warner deal is approved

Unless AT&T invests to upgrade its business, or acquire companies, which have a good synergy, it will not be able to compete and stay ahead of its competitors. Hence, the investors don’t expect the company to remain debt free. However, the debt should not be unserviceable, endangering future dividend payouts.

The current debt to EBITDA of AT&T is 2.19 times. On completion of the Time Warner acquisition, the debt/EBITDA is likely to increase to 2.8 to 3 times. The management wants to bring down the debt level, as soon as possible. This casts a doubt over the continued dividend raises. Will the company sacrifice the dividend for debt repayment?

Unlikely.

AT&T has been cash flow positive for more than a decade. Companies pay out dividends from their free cash flows. The payout ratio has mostly ranged between 52 to 70% with the odd spike to 94% in 2014.

This year, the company generated a free cash flow of $12.8 billion in the first three quarters and paid out a dividend of $9 billion, resulting in a payout ratio of 70.5%. The management has maintained its guidance for 2017 and is likely to end the year with a free cash flow of $18 billion.

On the other hand, Time Warner has generated a free cash flow of $3.57 billion in the first three quarters of this year. In 2016, the company had earned a free cash flow of $4.25 billion. Let’s consider a conservative estimate and expect the company to earn only as much as last year.

If the deal receives the green signal before the end of the year – though highly unlikely – the combined entity will end the year with a free cash flow of $22.25 billion.

After the merger, due to the equity dilution, AT&T’s dividend liability will increase to $14.5 billion.

For the nine months ended September 30, the company paid an interest of $4.3 billion. So, for the whole year, the company may end up with about $6 billion in interest expense. Add the additional $1.3 billion, which AT&T has to bear on assuming new debt following the Time Warner deal and the total comes to $7.3 billion.

Adding the interest expense and the dividend payout, we get a figure of about $21.8 billion. This doesn’t leave the company with enough money to allocate for debt reduction.

However, the figure also doesn’t put the dividend in danger, as it can easily be accomodated in the free cash flow. But, is there a danger that AT&T’s free cash flows will decline in the short-term or the medium-term?

Financial performance of AT&T

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenue in billions 127.43 128.75 132.45 146.8 163.79
EBITDA in billions 31.14 48.87 32.14 46.65 51.72
EPS diluted 1.25 3.39 1.19 2.37 2.1

 

From the above figures, we find that AT&T has been able to gradually increase its revenues for the past five years. Similarly, the EBITDA has been on a gradual uptrend, which shows that the company has been able to maintain its profitability.

How has the company performed this year?

The company has so far maintained a flat performance in 2017.

In the third quarter of this year, the company’s revenues fell from $40.9 billion in 2016 to $39.7 billion. Similarly, the reported earnings per share (EPS) also fell from $0.54 to $0.49, which shows a marginal slowdown.

While the result is not something to write home about, it is not an outright disaster as well.

Analyst forecasts

According to Nasdaq.com, the analysts forecast a long-term growth rate of 4.8%. The consensus 12-month price target is $40, which is a good 17% above the current price of the stock.

With the likelihood of the small dividend raise intact and a possibility of price appreciation, let’s see what does the chart point to.

What does the chart forecast?

The stock had been forming a large ascending triangle pattern. However, three weeks back, the stock broke below the strong trendline support, which is a bearish sign. Nevertheless, the stock has a strong support at the $32, which has not been broken on a weekly closing basis since mid-2012.

On the upside, the trendline, which had been acting as a strong support until now is likely to act as a stiff resistance. However, In the long-term, if the stock climbs above the trendline at $36, a move to $40 and thereafter to $43 is possible.

Risks

If interest rates rise quickly, AT&T’s interest expenses will rise. Additionally, if the company is unable to stay ahead of the competition, its free cash flows will decline and the dividend payouts will be in danger.

However, this is unlikely to happen within a single quarter. We shall continue to track the stock and its financials.

Portfolio

In order to track our investments better, we shall maintain active portfolios for dividend and growth. This will help us compare our performance with the markets.

In that step, we shall include AT&T as the first stock in the dividend portfolio at the current levels of $34.22.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

 

 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 9 rated postsRakesh Upadhyay is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Consultant for The Summit Group. He has more than a decade of experience as a private trader. His philosophy is to use technical analysis for momentum trading and fundamental analysis for long-term positions. Rakesh likes to keep himself fit by lifting weights and considers himself to be a spiritual person.




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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. jeffc89

    November 15, 2017 at 8:27 am

    Good article Rakesh, I will look to invest in AT&T. Thanks!

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      November 15, 2017 at 10:20 am

      Hello jeffc89,

      Thank you. We shall keep track of the company, as we have included it in our portfolio.

      With warm regards
      Rakesh Upadhyay

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Stock Picks: Ford, Marvel Technology, Qorvo

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

Below are the latest stock picks for July 10, 2018.

Ford (NYSE:F)

Ford Inc. is a US automotive company founded by Henry Ford back in 1903. Currently, it is in fourth place by the number of cars manufactured ever, after General Motors, Toyota, and Volkswagen.

Ford Inc. owns Troller, the Brazilian SUV brand, as well as 8% of Aston Martin (UK) shares and 49% of Jiangling Motors (China) shares. Additionally, Ford is involved in a number of joint companies, such as Changan Ford in China, Ford Lio Ho in Taiwan, Ford Otosan in Turkey, and Ford Sollers in Russia.

On June 7, the company announced its sales had fallen significantly in China. Compared to last year, the demand decreased by 38%, reaching just 62,057 cars. General Motors, on the other hand, managed to boost their sales in China by 4.4% over the same period.

China is overcrowded with car manufacturers, both small ones and large, with the competition being fierce. At this rate, the winner is the one that can update the model range on time and meet the average Chinese customer needs.

In 2015, Ford started selling Kuga (Chinese version of Ford Escape), and consumers got quite interested in it, with as many as 67,767 cars sold within 6 months. The company assumed the demand would stay the same, and just re-styled the exterior design a bit, but eventually, this was not enough. As such, in the first half of 2018, only 25,155 Kugas were sold, as the average consumer already considered it outdated and found some more innovative solutions in other companies.

Ford management say they were ready for this failure and launched new Mustang and Ranger Wildtrak sales in order to keep the demand high. Besides, they are going to present new Ford Focus and Ford Escort later this year, which could also boost the sales. By 2025, Ford want to launch 50 renewed or whole-new models.

This could well help to recover the sales indeed, but for the force majeure obstacles created by Donald  Trump. The US President initiated a trade war against China, which lead to increased customs duty for both cars and farm machinery. In this situation, the only hope for investors is Changan Ford, a joint company that could boost the sales again and make them reach the previous results. Further on, automotive companies will have to take some measures regarding in-depth local marketing strategy in China, in order not to lose this market totally.

China has already increased car customs duties, but this is not the only bad news for the US automotive companies. If the trade war continues, the EU may blow another strike against them, by imposing the same duties.

An old joke says a businessman can start a successful company and many jobs even in the middle of a desert, but if the government comes in, the results will be totally unpredictable. This is what is actually happening now, with the government actively trying to ‘help’ businesses.

The current situation does not allow any conclusions, and whenever an investor is in doubt, the best option for them is cash.

Technically, Ford is experiencing a downtrend, with the price being below the 200-day SMA. The trendline that was supporting the price since February is already broken out, which is a negative signal.

The most recent resistance is at $11.60, and in case the price bounces off it, it may well go further down. The downtrend is now prevailing, but at the same time the Short Float is quite low, at 3.18%, which means few traders want to be bullish right now.

Ford

 

Marvel Technology Group (NASDAQ:MRVL)

Marvel Technology Group was founded in 1995 and is based in Santa Clara, CA. The company focuses on data storage devices, high performance processes, broadband and wireless transceivers, memory controllers, and LED processors. The company was also responsible for supplying Wi-Fi chips for Apple iPhone 1. Currently, Marvel produces over 1 billion chips per year.

Last week, Marvel finalized its merger with Cavium Inc., a semiconductor device and system-on-chip producer. This merger will lead to the birth of a leading semiconductor manufacturer offering unique data storage and processing devices, wireless devices, and security products to its customers.

The board is expecting a rise in demand from automotive manufacturers that are in need of high processing speed and low energy consumption.

After the Cavium acquisition, Marvel got three new directors on the board: Syed Ali, Brad Buss, and Dr. Edward Frank.

Syed Ali was the Co-founder, President, Chief Executive Officer, and the Board Chairman in Cavium Inc. since its inception.

Brad Buss was a Director at Cavium since 2016, serving as a Financial Director at Cypress Semiconductor and Solar City before. Currently, he is also a member of Tesla Motors and Advance Auto Parts Boards.

Dr. Edward Frank also has been a Director at Cavium since July 2016, being also the co-founded of Cloud Parity, a startup company. Before that, he was the Vice President at Macintosh Hardware Systems Engineering, Apple. He also served as an R&D Vice President at Broadcom Corporation.

Technically, flat correction is coming to an end on W1, which could mean that uptrend will be continuing.

Marvel Technology Group

On D1, the price attempted to break out the 200-day SMA top down, but was unable to. This attempt occurred on June 25, after which the volumes went up and the price recovered, which can be easily explained by the investors trying to buy at a better price. There’s also an obvious support at $20.00, which was tested three times and was never broken out.

Marvel Technology Group

Short Float is the only thing that may make the investors wary, as it is quite high and is at 11.72%. There’s another thing, though: the insider sales in June amounted to $219,980.

Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO)

Qorvo Inc. is a relatively young company that appeared in 2015 after Tri Quint Semiconductor and RF Micro Device merger. It is headquartered in Greensborough, NC. This is a semiconductor manufacturer that creates and sells radio systems and app solutions enabling wireless and broadband communication. In June 2015, Qorvo became a part of the S&P 500 Index with a value of $12 billion. Currently, over 8,000 people are employed with Qorvo.
Last week, the investors got interested in this company as its shares went up sharply, appearing among the S&P 500 leaders. On July 5, Qorvo shares went up as much as by 5.60%.

Still, there is nothing special about the company, with this growth being totally based on good financial reports and the ever-high demand on Apple phones in China. Qorvo is a major supplier of iPhone parts, so this is what really makes difference for it.

The Board set a goal to increase its market share across Chinese smartphones and boost the EPS to $6.40 by 2019.

On D1, there is an uptrend, where the 200-day SMA acts as a support. The most recent resistance is at $85.00, and once it’s broken out, the price may reach $90.00.

Qorvo

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 4 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, Dmitry went on to continue his education in post graduate. He then worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped him to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. Dmitry is a pro in the financial field who authors articles for various international media. He also holds the position of Chief Analyst at RoboForex.




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Stock Pick: Coca-Cola

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The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is company that needs no introduction. They are the manufacturers of the most popular soft drinks in history: Coca-Cola. Founded in 1886, the initial servings of Coca-Cola sold for 5 cents per glass. In its first year, the company had average sales of nine servings per day. 132 years later, that number has gone up to an estimated 1.9 billion servings globally per day. Coca-Cola has 61,800 employees with revenue of $35.41 billion in 2017.

KO started its bull run in December 2010 when it took out resistance of 32.00. This triggered the rounding bottom pattern on the weekly and monthly charts. From that point, the stock has been generating a series of higher highs and higher lows in a slow and steady manner.

Looking at the chart, KO is a great example of a stock in a strong uptrend. It usually creates a solid base before making a move up. Once the stock is overbought, it pulls back. KO then creates a higher low where it consolidates for some time before repeating the same process. This has been going on for over seven years and there’s no indication that it will stop anytime soon.

Technical analysis show that KO is ripe for a bounce. This view comes afters bulls worked hard to keep the stock above 42. The price action keeps the stock’s long-term support intact. On top of that, KO also respected the weekly RSI support of 36. This support area has never been breached since 2010 when the stock started its uptrend.

Furthermore, technical indicators are showing bullish signals. The MACD recently flashed a bullish cross. Also, the 4-day, 8-day, and 21-day moving averages are below the weekly candle’s body and are trending up.

Moreover, fundamentals support our bullish outlook. KO’s trailing twelve months (TTM) price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) is 22.44. The stock appears fairly valued but it went as high as 25.408 this year at about the same time it started to correct. While the stock was pulling back, it was generating revenues that beat expert analysis.

CNBC reports that the company posted 47 cents earnings per share compared to the 46 cents earnings per share predicted by Thomson Reuters. On top of that, KO generated revenues of $7.6 billion, which is significantly higher than the $7.34 billion forecast by Thomson and Reuters. The company is performing better than expected while its stock is taking a hit.

The strategy is to buy on dips as close to 42 as possible. If bulls can defend the long-term support, they will attract the momentum they need to push the pair to our initial target of 50. Sell immediately because based on the trend, the stock is likely to pull back from that price level.

The process may take more than six months.

Weekly KO Chart

Monthly KO Chart

As of this writing, The Coca-Cola Company stock (KO) is trading at 43.75.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 42 as possible.

Target: 50

Stop: Close below 41.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 191 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Stock Picks: AMZN, FDX, UPS

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

In our latest reviews, we highlighted the importance of insider transactions, which may lead to very high yield in the respective stock picks. Today, we will again review the stocks with high insider activity.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)

Amazon.com, Inc. and Jess Bezos, its CEO, were the cause of losses incurred by various companies worth billions of dollars last week. Let’s delve into this now.

Fedex and UPS were first to get ‘struck’ by Amazon.

On Thu, June 28, Amazon announced its new Delivery Service Partners service that would allow people to build their own shipping business under Amazon brand with a truck fleet of up to 40 vans. One can start with as low as $10,000, after completing a verification process with Amazon. Such partners will get their parcels shipped at one of the 75 Amazon local offices scattered over the US. The truck drivers will wear special kit featuring Amazon logo. The parcels will be shipped to other Amazon partners, too, including Fedex and UPS.

Such a decision was determined by huge e-commerce growth, where the existing shipping companies are no longer to meet the increasing demand. Amazon also highlighted risks in working with Fedex and UPS, as those may not be able to agree on acceptable terms.

Meanwhile, the shipping costs increased from $11.5B in 2015 to $21.7B in 2017, and this tend is still active. With the new service in place, Amazon will control a part of these costs.

AMZN

In the light of this news, FedEx market value dropped by $823M.

FedEx (NYSE: FDX)

FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 by Frederick W. Smith, and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee. This company provides postal, courier, and logistic services around the globe. In particular, it owns one of the largest freight carrier fleets in the world. Currently, there are around 117,000 employees at FedEx, also scattered across the globe.

On June 20, the company reported its earning during fiscal Q4 that ended in May. Its net profit went up from $1.02B, or $3.75 per share, to $1.13B, or $4.15 per share. Such a positive report was still unable to boost the market value, which, on the contrary, shrank, and the share price went down, too. One of the major reasons behind that was the trade war between the US and China started by Trump and his cabinet. This may severely decrease the turnover between the two countries, which will of course influence FedEx revenue.

FDX

UPS was another loser after the Amazon news came out: this one lost $2.16B in market cap, and its shares are currently still moving down.

United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS)

United Parcel Service was founded back in 1907 by James Casey, and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. This company focuses on express shipping and logistics. Currently, its staff comprises 454,000 employees across the globe. United Parcel Service owns the UPS Airlines company with 237 carriers catering to customers in over 220 countries.

According to the UPS earning report over Q1, the net profit went up to $1.345B, much higher than $1.104B in Q4 2017. The report came in late April, and by then the share price was steadily going up, but then the same thing happened as it did with FedEx: first trade wars, and then Amazon news influenced the stock negatively, which brought it drastically down.

UPS

Just in a few hours more, Amazon struck the US pharma business, too, after announcing the acquisition of PillPak, which, some say, cost the company $1B.

PillPak was founded in 2013, and focuses on delivering prescribed medicines for daily usage, mainly for those who suffer from diabetes, hypertension, and obesity.

This news also led to massive market cap fall, around $14.5B in total.

Such an acquisition shows Amazon’s interest in healthcare, which is a bad signal for those who already invested into this sector. This is because the competition will get harder, and only the strongest will survive, while Amazon is a very rich and powerful competitor for anyone.

Amazon managed to ‘drop’ Walmart shares, too, as the latter also wanted to buy PillPak, if at a smaller amount. The wholesale giant lost $3.04B in market cap Thursday, but, unlike other companies, this was quite in line with the normal intraday volatility.

Walmart

Several other companies got struck, too, including Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ: WBA), the largest retail pharma company. Walgreens Boots Alliance manages over 13,100 pharmacies and cosmetics shops in 11 countries.

Walgreens market cap went down by $6.51B, and the shares have not recovered yet.

Walgreens

McKesson Corporation (NYSE: MCK) is a large pharma company, a major distributor and pharmacy chain. headquartered in San Francisco, CA, it also has local offices in Australia, the UK, Ireland, Netherlands, and France. McKesson Corporation owns a chain of franchising pharmacies operating under the brand of Health Mart.

McKesson Corp. market cap went down by $1.79B, and is still going down.

McKesson

AmerisourceBergen Corporation (NYSE: ABC) is a US based company specializing in drug sales both in the US and internationally. It was founded in 2001 after the merger between Ameri Source Health and Bergen Brunswig, and is headquartered in Chesterbrook, PA.

After the Amazon news came in, ABC lost $818M in market cap, but started recovering even before the end of session.

AmerisourceBergen

Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH) focuses on medicine sales and medical goods production, which includes medical gloves, medical kit, and liquid collection drugs. Besides, CAH sells radioactive tracers and caters to over 75% hospitals in the US.

Cardinal Health market cap went down by $795M after Amazon and PillPak merger was announced. Currently, the share price is still moving down.

Cardinal Health

CVS Health Corporation (NYSE: CVS) was founded back in 1964 and is headquartered in Woonsocket, Rhode Island. The company focuses on selling drugs and other medical goods. CVS Health Corporation started as a chain of health&beauty stores, but then added pharmacies to its portfolio. As of now, the company owns and operates 6,900 pharmacies in 41 states of the US.

CVS market cap dropped by $4.34B on Thu at the market opening, and while the price was trying hard to recover, it continued falling on Fri.

CVS Health Corporation

It is curious that all stocks, except for AmerisourceBergen Corporation (NYSE: ABC), were trading under the 200-day SMA when the news came in, which means the descending trend was quite possible; this means the news just sped up the process.

Investors can seldom predict such unexpected events, but there’s tech analysis, and it warns us against potential positive or negative factors.

 

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 4 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, Dmitry went on to continue his education in post graduate. He then worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped him to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. Dmitry is a pro in the financial field who authors articles for various international media. He also holds the position of Chief Analyst at RoboForex.




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