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Market Overview

BTFD!

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Now entering day three since the broad sell-off across the crypto market industry and theories are piling up as to why it’s happening.

To me, none of the theories point to any dramatic change in the fundamentals of this market. We’ve seen greater pullbacks in bitcoin before. This isn’t the first 50% retracement and it probably won’t be the last.

This is actually a good thing for the industry as it can shake out some of the speculators and consolidate the tremendous gains seen over the last few months. Of course, the best thing would be a sustained reduction in volatility to increase stability.

We’ll discuss below what the possibilities are for price movement in the near term. Though we might go lower from here, for those who believe that this technology will play a much greater role in the future, this pullback can present an excellent opportunity to spot out possible entry points in the market.

There’s an old strategy that’s been used in the traditional markets called “buy the dip.” This works especially well when the long term trend is up.

The term BTFD can mean either Buy The eFing Dip or Bear the F Down, usually depending on if you’re already in the market or waiting on the sidelines.

Of course, this is crypto so the usual disclaimers apply. Never afford more than you can lose and always diversify your investments. Blockchain is revolutionary but there is always a chance that any individual coin can go to zero.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

Growth from China

The Banks are Fine

Crypto by the charts

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of January 18th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Traditional Markets

Investors were calmed yesterday that the US government is heading to yet another temporary solution to keep the government open for business.

This will likely be the fourth temporary patch to extend the deadline but with the fractured politics in the USA right now even just the ability to kick the can down the road for a few weeks is being seen as a reason to celebrate.

The Dow Jones ended the day with another all time high closing above 26,000 points for the first time ever.

This morning, we had some great growth numbers out of China with the economy in the world’s most populated country growing by 6.9% in 2017. This figure was slightly better than analysts were forecasting and the China50 index is the highest it’s been since 2008.

Stocks were further encouraged by earnings figures from the big banks. Analysts were expecting some dismal results this quarter but it seems the figures were not quite as bad as expected. Famous Wall Street commentator Jim Cramer has expressed his confidence in this sector.

Though the financial stocks were the only red sector in the Dow Jones, things certainly could have been much worse.

Now for Crypto…

We did indeed see some moderate increase in volumes from Japan and South Korea. Also, the premiums paid by these two countries have come down slightly.

At the time of this writing, Japanese exchanges are selling bitcoin for just 15% above the Western markets and South Korea is down to a premium of 18%. Though the prices are still elevated this is a great sign that the market is indeed evening out.

On December the premium in Japan was as high as 25% and the premium in South Korea was 31%.

Let’s Get Technical

With a lack of any strong fundamental news to drive this market, the best thing to do in a situation like this is to dig into the charts for clues.

Here we can see a chart of bitcoin over the last few months. Take a look at the blue rising trend line. Usually, the tendency would be for the market to come back to it’s support on the decline and as we can see that level is now acting as a magnet.

Slightly beneath that we can see the 200 day average price in yellow. So between these two levels, and now that the $10,000 psychological barrier has been broken, the key support is around $8000 per coin.

For those of you looking for more volatilty to do some day trading, take a look at Bitcoin Cash. According to Coincheckup.com BCH is the most volatile of the top cryptos.

Here we can see a very wide range between $1000 and $4000. If it passes either of these levels things will certainly change, but assuming stability returns to this market we could see it coming back to the average price that it was trading before the crash, right at the dead center of the range.

As always, please continue sending me your excellent feedbacks and questions. You are my main source of information. ūüėČ

Let’s have an awesome day ahead!!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 152 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Market Overview

U.S. Stocks Rise as Fed Confirms Dovish Pivot

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U.S. stocks extended their gains Wednesday after the Federal Reserve offered further reassurance that it will hold off on raising interest rates for the time being. Cryptocurrencies reported a mixture of modest gains and losses as volumes backed off from their yearly highs.

Stocks Extend Rally

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 63.12 points, or 0.2%, to close at 25,954,44. The blue-chip index has risen in five of the past six sessions and looks poised to reach 26,000 this week.

The broad S&P 500 Index finished up 0.2% to 2,784.70. Materials stocks led six of 11 primary sectors higher, with most of the gains concentrated in primary industry.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index pared gains to finish flat at 7,489.07.

Stocks are in the midst of an eight-week rally, but the following chart spells trouble for the S&P 500 Index.

Fed Puts on the Brakes

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday provided more details as to why it decided to be patient with normalizing monetary policy. In the official transcript of last month’s meeting, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members cited stock market volatility and weaker global economic growth as the main obstacles standing in the way of policy normalization.

According to the minutes, there were a ‚Äúvariety of considerations that supported a patient approach.‚ÄĚ Additionally, ‚Äúa patient posture would allow time for a clearer picture of the international trade policy situation and the state of the global economy to emerge and, in particular, could allow policymakers to reach a firmer judgment about the extent and persistence of the economic slowdown in Europe and China.‚ÄĚ

The Fed’s dovish pivot last month allowed the stock market to extend a bullish revival that began just after Christmas. Central bankers will hold their next policy meeting next month. The March interest rate statement will be accompanied by a revised summary of economic projections covering GDP, unemployment and inflation.

Crypto Markets Flatline

The combined value of all cryptocurrencies hovered north of $135 billion on Wednesday, where it was little changed compared with the previous day. Markets succumbed to a fresh wave of selling overnight, as bitcoin and the major altocins reported modest declines. By the early morning, most of the losses had disappeared.

Trading volumes dipped below $30 billion but were well off the highs from Tuesday. An influx of capital into the crypto ecosystem could make for volatile trading conditions in the near term.

Bitcoin was last seen trading at $3,983.49, according to CoinMarketCap, an aggregate data provider. The bitcoin price is trading hands well north of $4,000 on Bitfinex.

Ethereum’s price was little changed at $147.83. XRP edged down 1.7% to $0.30275. EOS extended its rally, climbing 5.3% to $3.84. Read more: Litecoin, EOS, Binance Coin, Maker: Altcoins Leading the Charge.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 773 rated postsChief Editor to Hacked.com and Contributor to CCN.com, Sam Bourgi has spent the past nine years focused on economics, markets and cryptocurrencies. His work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Avid crypto watchers and those with a libertarian persuasion can follow him on twitter at @hsbourgi




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Market Overview

USA is Ready to Invest in Crypto

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Hi Everyone,

In our ongoing effort to bring crypto to the general public, we’ve done yet another survey, this time focusing on online traders in the USA.

The results are clear as day, the United States is more than ready to invest in crypto.

Definitely make sure to read the full report with all the jaw-dropping stats and the methodology of the poll. This is extremely encouraging.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • US-China trade deadline: 9 days | Days to Brexit: 37
  • Unsustainable Trajectory
  • Crypto Rally Stalls

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of February 20th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

Everyone¬†will stop what they’re doing at 2:00 PM New York time today to take in the¬†FOMC‘s meeting minutes. During their last meeting, the Fed did a complete 180 on policy, which many have pointed to as¬†a complete capitulation to the market’s desires. So, when they release the minutes of that meeting it will be extremely interesting to hear what they have to say.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that there will not likely be any final deal between the US and China by March 1st. It’s also becoming increasingly clear that this deadline was never very significant in the first place. Trump has indicated that he’s willing to let the deadline slide if significant progress is being made, and many feel that it is, however, until we get final confirmation of that it will remain in our countdown above. It wouldn’t be the first time Trump changed his mind at the last moment.

As well, I’ve decided to leave the Brexit countdown timer set for March 29th, the day Article 50 kicks in, rather than the new self-imposed deadline that Parliament put on their Prime Minister.

Markets are now returning to their normal levels of volatility.

Trajectory Unsustainable

After crashing in January and making a huge comeback in January, financial markets are now remarkably average.

The 200-day moving average (blue line) shows us the average price of the last 200 days and is one of the most widely watched indicators among technical analysts. Here we can see that the Nasdaq 100 is now at this level.

Many analysts were quick to point out that if we ignore 2018 and look only at the stock market performance from January 1st, we’re actually seeing stellar results.

Some pundits even take this a step further. Here’s a graph posted by @StockCats who pointed out that the current trajectory of the markets does look a bit unsustainable.

Crypto Rally Stalled – Where to Next?

Let’s face it, these last few days have been amazing. However, even within this longest crypto bear market of all time, there have been rallies before that ended up fizzling out. So, even though it’s possible we go to the moon from here, it certainly pays to be cautious.

One¬†thing that’s interesting to me is the different spins that some of the mainstream media are putting on this.¬†The Independent¬†is saying that it’s because of the Galaxy S10 Crypto Wallet…

…while¬†Bloomberg¬†is saying that…

Forbes, on the other hand, seemed to focus on the altcoin markets.

For¬†me, it’s pretty clear that this whole thing began due to a shortage in Ethereum creation. As I explained in an interview with BlockTV yesterday, the creation of new Ether tokens has been severely limited lately. Especially for those of you who are less inclined to look at graphs and charts, feel free to¬†watch the recording here.

For¬†hose of you who do like charts,¬†check this out. This supply shortage while demand remained consistent caused Ethereum’s price to rise dramatically and the rest of the cryptos followed. By today, we’re going on sheer momentum. After months of depressed prices, it’s about time we had a real rally in this market.

As I’m writing, it does seem that we may be getting a continuation of the rally but it’s still too early to tell. Let’s see where the day brings us.

Wishing you an excellent day. As always, please continue sending in your valuable feedbacks, questions, comments, and insights. It is always useful and always appreciated.

Best regards,

Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

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eToro: @MatiGreenspan | Twitter: @MatiGreenspan | LinkedIn: MatiGreenspan |Facebook:MatiGreen

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 152 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Market Overview

Walmart Earnings Propel Stocks Higher; Crypto Market Cap Hits $135 Billion

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U.S. stocks extended their rally on Tuesday, as a positive earnings surprise from Walmart Stores Inc. (WMT) propelled the major indexes higher. Cryptocurrencies maintained their upward edge with EOS, Stellar and Binance Coin leading the gainers.

Relief Rally Continues

The major indexes overcame a tepid start to finish sharply higher on Tuesday. The broad S&P 500 Index rose 0.2% to 2,779.76, its seventh gain in the past eight sessions. Eight of 11 primary sectors finished in positive territory, led by materials. Consumer stocks also outperformed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up most of its gains to finish only moderately higher. The index closed at 25,891.32, having gained 8.07 points, or 0.03%.

Shares of Walmart Stores rose 2.2% after the retail giant reported better than expected quarterly results. For its fiscal fourth quarter, the Bentonville, Arkansas-based company reported per-share earnings of $1.41 on sales of $133.79 billion. Both figures topped analysts’ median estimate.

Steady performances for information technology and communication stocks lifted the Nasdaq Composite Index to higher ground. The tech-heavy benchmark climbed 0.2% to 7,486.77.

The Dow extended its winning streak to eight weeks on Friday. Read more: Stocks Surge on U.S.-China Trade Optimism; Dow Notches Eighth Consecutive Weekly Gain.

U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume

China‚Äôs trade envoy has arrived in Washington to resume high-stakes negotiations with the Trump administration this week. Both the U.S. and China are upping the ante ahead of a self-imposed trade-deal deadline on Mar. 1. President Trump says he may let the deadline ‚Äúslide‚ÄĚ if both sides make progress toward a new deal.

The latest round of talks between the U.S. and China wrapped up on Friday in Beijing. The White House said the two-day meeting was ‚Äúdetailed and intensive.‚ÄĚ

‚ÄúBoth sides will continue working on all outstanding issues in advance of the March 1, 2019, deadline for an increase in the 10 percent tariff on certain imported Chinese goods,‚ÄĚ the White House said Friday in a statement.

Return of the Crypto Bulls?

Crypto markets flashed green on Tuesday, as bitcoin clawed back above $4,000 for the first time since early January. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap and trading volume reached a session high of $4,083.50 on Bitfinex. To negate the downtrend, bitcoin’s price must cross above $4,200.

In terms of percentage gains, Binance Coin was the best-performing major on Tuesday. It rose 12.7% to $10.88, where it held firm to tenth spot on the market-cap index.

EOS climbed 5.5% to $3.66. Stellar Lumens advanced 12.7% to reach $0.0912.

At the time of writing, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies is $135.5 billion. Trade volumes have surged to $33.9 billion, with all major exchanges reporting a significant increase in turnover since Sunday.

Read more: Crypto Markets are Up $16 Billion Since Sunday; What’s Behind the Rally?

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 773 rated postsChief Editor to Hacked.com and Contributor to CCN.com, Sam Bourgi has spent the past nine years focused on economics, markets and cryptocurrencies. His work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Avid crypto watchers and those with a libertarian persuasion can follow him on twitter at @hsbourgi




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