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The Bottom is Here? Bitcoin Price Hits $3000 then Storms to $3600

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Yesterday’s crash continued unabated today, and it reached epic proportions as investors dumped all the major coins with both hands, before several Chinese exchanges (like OKcoin, Huobi) confirmed their (only) partial closure. The prior panic selling drove BTC below the $3150 support, then $3000 and the June all-time highs. With the coin losing more than 40% top-to-bottom the end of the decline could be very close and the first major rally already started today, as Bitcoin’s price catapulted to $3600 very quickly and altcoin prices also soared off their panic lows.

While we couldn’t be sure that a major bottom is already formed, and a re-test usually comes after such a move, investors now should be buying the short-term dips. The deep correction that we expected cleared the overbought readings of the prior monster rally, and sentiment is getting bearish enough for at least a tradable rally.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The other major coins were hit even harder amid the broad liquidation, and the total market capitalization of the segment crashed below $100 billion, marking a loss of $80 billion in two weeks. Ethereum got close to the $200 (-50% off the all-time high) level, Litecoin spiked to $35 for an almost 60% plunge, while Ripple touched the $0.15 level. The selling pressure reached yesterday’s relatively strong coins as well, as IOTA fell below primary support, while Monero also declined by 20+%. As the market might be at a major turning point, let’s look at the short-term charts before the weekend.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETH followed BTC higher off the panic lows, and got back to the next major $235-$250 support/resistance level. The coin is getting long-term oversold, and today’s low could mark the end of the correction, although a re-test of the lows is possible. Investors should now be adding to their positions on the short-term dips. Support is found near $200 and around $175, while resistance is ahead at $280 and $300.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin spiked below $50, but it’s now back near the crucial level, after it briefly tested the long-term base formation near $35. The coin is very likely hit a panic bottom today and although more sideways action is probably ahead, the short-term dips should be bought by investors, while traders should wait for a confirmed trend change in the volatile environment.  Support is still found at $47, $44, and $38 while resistance is ahead at $56, and $64.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash held up well during the crash, but it still got close to the $220 level and the prior highs, after dipping below the $265 support. The coin is now back above the key level, but we expect more volatility and a possible re-test of the lows before a sustained move higher. That said, the long-term picture is encouraging, and investors should be looking for buying opportunities during the bottoming process. Strong support is still found near $220, with resistance ahead near $300.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP found support in the long-term base formation and it is now back near the top of the pattern at the $0.18 resistance. The declining short-term is still intact, but the coin could be among the first coins to head higher after the end of the correction, and long-term investors should still add to their positions here. Support is still found at $0.16, while resistance is ahead at $0.18, around the $0.20 level, and near $0.22.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic experienced liquidation below the key $13.50 level, and it plunged to the next long-term support near $9 on huge volume. The coin has to get back above the prior support level, or it will remain in a declining long-term trend. Until the recovery, short-term traders should wait with opening new positions, but the current levels are still attractive for long-term investors.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero remained relatively strong amid the sell-off and it is trading back above the $80 support, after spiking below the key level today in early trading. While volatility is still expected to remain high, today’s low is likely the final bottom of the correction and investors could already add to their holdings. Resistance is ahead at 4100, $125, and near the all-time high above $150, while support is at $80 and $68.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO hit the support level near $13 before the strong rebound, and it recovered above the $16.50 support/resistance. Today’s bottom is likely to be a tradable one after the crash. We expect only brief moves below $16.50, and investors should be adding to their positions now. Short-term traders should still wait until a new uptrend is established as volatility will likely remain high. Resistance levels are ahead at $22, $25, and $30, while support is a found at $13, and $11.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA held above the $0.35 level as we expected, and it is now trading above the line-in-the send support zone between the $0.45 and $0.48 levels, confirming the short-term relative strength of the coin. The declining trend is still intact in the coin, but the long-term picture is encouraging and investors could still add to their positions. Resistance is still ahead near $0.65, with key support at $0.35.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 413 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Chris G

    September 15, 2017 at 5:53 pm

    thanks mate

  2. vanh139@gmail.com

    September 15, 2017 at 6:51 pm

    Is it safe to say that near the $3200 level of BTC, purchase of other Altcoin can be made for short-term trade ?

    • vanh139@gmail.com

      September 15, 2017 at 6:55 pm

      And thanks a lot btw

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Altcoins

EOS Price Analysis: Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson Warns of Regulatory Action Against EOS

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  • Charles Hoskinson projects some form of action from the SEC on EOS.
  • EOS/USD enjoys a relief rally on Wednesday, as price moves further north following recent bounce.

The EOS price hasn’t done much but decline of late. Back in August, EOS/USD entered into a very stubborn narrowing range. The price had been confined within this mode of trading right up until November. The range was seen from the $6 territory down $4 area. On the 19th November, EOS/USD bears had finally pushed for a breakout to the downside, from this mentioned range-block. Following this fall, the price plummeted over 60%, over the course of 3 weeks.

Cardano Founder Hoskinson Expresses EOS Regulatory Concerns

The Cardano (ADA) founder, Charles Hoskinson, has beliefs that EOS chief developer of the network is likely to face strong action from regulatory bodies. The SEC would be a potential regulator that investigates their $4bln ICO, as he has described as “egregious.”

Speaking at a press conference in Edinburgh, Charles Hoskinson has made a projection that the Securities and Exchange Commission will look at taking firm measures against Block.One. He believes that this would be done due to the way it had run and hosted the EOS ICO.  Hoskinson further detailed how the EOS token sale sits within the remit of the regulators for them to review the potential for harm of retail investors in the United States.

Charles Hoskinson Anticipating SEC Action on EOS

Hoskinson predicted that the SEC will likely bring punitive measures against Block.One for the way it ran the EOS Initial Coin Offering. The IOHK leader explained that EOS’ token sale falls well within the regulator’s remit to take action against any financial activity which harms US retail investors.

There were several fundamental issues with the EOS ICO, which clearly raise red flags, from Hoskinson’s view. He expressed for particular focus on the amount they had raised over the course of a year, in addition to their “utter lack of respect” for investors. Hoskinson said, the SEC “needed” to take action.

Technical Review – EOS/USD

EOS/USD daily chart

Most recently, the price has managed to stabilize, which could be due to sellers exhaustion. A bounce was seen on 7th December, after falling to a low of around $1.55. The bulls are attempting to make a convincing push back into the $2 territory. Demand in the near-term should now be observed from that recent low, $1.55 up to $1.80.

It is interesting to note the area of which EOS/USD received some comfort on 7th December (this is a known acting support). Back in November 2017 during the big bull run, the price consolidated within the mentioned demand zone for a brief period. This came before continuing its strong move to the north.

Downside Observations

EOS/USD daily chart

Should the near-term area of support fail to hold, then there could be some devastating moves to the downside. A breach of the $1 mark could very well be seen. The next major demand area will be within the depths of $0.90 region. EOS/USD had last traded down here again within the early part of Nov 2017 bull run.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 79 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Forex Update: Euro and Pound Under Pressure Amid Brexit Chaos

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Forex Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
EUR/USD 1.1318 -0.32%
GBP/USD 1.2515 -0.35%
USD/JPY 113.27 -0.04%
AUD/USD 0.7200 0.14%
GOLD 1,247 -0.23%
WTI Crude Oil 51.63 1.43%
BTC/USD 3,336 -2.10%

The forex market has been very active today with Europe being in the epicenter of the moves. The Euro and the Great British Pound are both trading with a bearish bias, despite an early rally. The initial move higher in the main risk-on currencies was triggered by the Chinese proposal of reducing car tariffs on vehicle’s made in the US, which gave back hope that the US-Chinese talks could be back on track despite the recent arrest of Huawei’s CFO. The brief bounce in Europe was also fueled by the better-than-expected German ZEW Sentiment data, even as the indicator still points to a slowdown.

While the risk rally faded in late European trading, the US Dollar got higher across the board following the better-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report. Analysts expected a flat headline number due to the sharp decline in the price of oil while the more reliable core measure was expected rise modestly. The higher-than-expected producer inflation caused a rise in rate-hike odds and in turn, a bounce in the Dollar.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Euro, which is among the weakest majors from a technical standpoint due to the Brexit troubles the Italian budget debate and the slowing global economy, is back near the 1.13 level, still in a clear long-term downtrend.

The short-term trading range is intact in the pair, and for now, the prior low near 1.12 is not in danger, but despite the very favorable seasonality for the common currency, it failed to maintain its bounce above the key 1.1440 level, pointing to strong selling pressure and likely new lows in January.

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Pound crashed below the 1.27 level following the delay of the key Brexit vote that was supposed to take place today, and the weakest major currency hit new 20-month lows against the US Dollar as we expected.

The pair is still well above its 2016 low near 1.20, but there are no major support zones that could stop the decline, should the political uncertainty persist. Both the short- and long-term trends remain bearish in GBP/USD, and only a quick recovery above 1.27 would help bulls here.

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair broke out above the 0.90 level and the long-standing trading range that has been dominant for almost a year, besides a failed break-out attempt in August. Given the Pound’s overall weakness a move towards the 2017 highs near 0.93 is possible in the coming months and a move above that could open up the way to the historic 0.95 level, and the 0.9750 level which was hit briefly during the panic in 2008.

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold pulled back below the $1250 level after hitting its highest level since July, and although the precious metal is close to confirming a new uptrend, a failed break-out formation is still in the cards. That said, the long-term outlook is still positive for the safe-haven asset, and should the pull back in US yields continue, gold could be in for a bull run even against the relatively strong US Dollar. The next major resistance zone is found near $1300 while support is at $1215 and $1080.

Key Economic Events Tomorrow

ChartBook

Forex

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

USD/CHF, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 413 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Stellar Price Analysis: XLM/USD on the Road to Losing the $0.10 Mark; Coinbase Can’t Save XLM for Now

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  • XLM bears are pressing hard for a drop below the big $0.10 mark, as markets remains down across the board.
  • There could be room for another 8% price drop if support is broken, looking via the XLM/BTC chart view.

Stellar’s XLM is subject to giving up the big $0.10 level. Across the board there have been a several key psychological price breaks. Cryptocurrencies are being forced to give way, due to strength of the current bear market. When prices drop below these closely looked at levels, it only seems to spark further worry and panic. A fresh wave of selling pressure is then invited. Over the past five weeks, XLM/USD has fallen a chunky 63%, from the $0.29 territory, down to a recent low of $0.1010.

Consolidation Mode – Bears Rubbing Paws Together

XLM/USD daily chart

Over the past four sessions, there has been some stabilization following the deep push on 6th December, where XLM/USD fell to $0.1010. The price is moving within consolidation mode, something that is seen across the market. Technically, this only spells more danger – a calm before the storm potentially for cryptocurrencies. This type of behavior has been seen over and over again during this aggressively stubborn downward trend.

What if $0.10 is Breached?

As noted on numerous occasions, this move is uncharted territory already, falling from the heights seen at the start of the year. Market participants are already fueled with a serious amount of FUD, so such technical breaks will only cause more damage. This isn’t due to anything fundamental relating to the Stellar foundation, as their developments continue to remain very much sound and strong. One must gauge how further this can fall, via XLM/BTC chart view.

Technical Review – XLM/BTC

XLM/BTC daily chart

XLM/BTC continues to flirt with a critical area of support, and a failure to hold will be catastrophic. This zone held in the most recent fall on 7th December; despite the long lower wick below, the price still managed to close above. XLM/BTC has not been and closed below 0.000035 territory since September 19th. Should a breach occur, which if the current pace of momentum maintains its course could very well happen, another 8% drop may follow.

Lastly, it is worth keeping an eye out of the potential formation of a head and shoulder pattern. The left shoulder and head have been crafted via XLM/BTC daily chart. There is certainly a possibility that the bulls come back to life, forcing a bounce at the above-mentioned support. A right shoulder could then move towards heights back within the $0.00004000-4500 range. This is where the next major of supply can be observed.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 79 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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