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Analysis

The Bottom is Here? Bitcoin Price Hits $3000 then Storms to $3600

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Yesterday’s crash continued unabated today, and it reached epic proportions as investors dumped all the major coins with both hands, before several Chinese exchanges (like OKcoin, Huobi) confirmed their (only) partial closure. The prior panic selling drove BTC below the $3150 support, then $3000 and the June all-time highs. With the coin losing more than 40% top-to-bottom the end of the decline could be very close and the first major rally already started today, as Bitcoin’s price catapulted to $3600 very quickly and altcoin prices also soared off their panic lows.

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While we couldn’t be sure that a major bottom is already formed, and a re-test usually comes after such a move, investors now should be buying the short-term dips. The deep correction that we expected cleared the overbought readings of the prior monster rally, and sentiment is getting bearish enough for at least a tradable rally.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The other major coins were hit even harder amid the broad liquidation, and the total market capitalization of the segment crashed below $100 billion, marking a loss of $80 billion in two weeks. Ethereum got close to the $200 (-50% off the all-time high) level, Litecoin spiked to $35 for an almost 60% plunge, while Ripple touched the $0.15 level. The selling pressure reached yesterday’s relatively strong coins as well, as IOTA fell below primary support, while Monero also declined by 20+%. As the market might be at a major turning point, let’s look at the short-term charts before the weekend.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETH followed BTC higher off the panic lows, and got back to the next major $235-$250 support/resistance level. The coin is getting long-term oversold, and today’s low could mark the end of the correction, although a re-test of the lows is possible. Investors should now be adding to their positions on the short-term dips. Support is found near $200 and around $175, while resistance is ahead at $280 and $300.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin spiked below $50, but it’s now back near the crucial level, after it briefly tested the long-term base formation near $35. The coin is very likely hit a panic bottom today and although more sideways action is probably ahead, the short-term dips should be bought by investors, while traders should wait for a confirmed trend change in the volatile environment.  Support is still found at $47, $44, and $38 while resistance is ahead at $56, and $64.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash held up well during the crash, but it still got close to the $220 level and the prior highs, after dipping below the $265 support. The coin is now back above the key level, but we expect more volatility and a possible re-test of the lows before a sustained move higher. That said, the long-term picture is encouraging, and investors should be looking for buying opportunities during the bottoming process. Strong support is still found near $220, with resistance ahead near $300.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP found support in the long-term base formation and it is now back near the top of the pattern at the $0.18 resistance. The declining short-term is still intact, but the coin could be among the first coins to head higher after the end of the correction, and long-term investors should still add to their positions here. Support is still found at $0.16, while resistance is ahead at $0.18, around the $0.20 level, and near $0.22.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic experienced liquidation below the key $13.50 level, and it plunged to the next long-term support near $9 on huge volume. The coin has to get back above the prior support level, or it will remain in a declining long-term trend. Until the recovery, short-term traders should wait with opening new positions, but the current levels are still attractive for long-term investors.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero remained relatively strong amid the sell-off and it is trading back above the $80 support, after spiking below the key level today in early trading. While volatility is still expected to remain high, today’s low is likely the final bottom of the correction and investors could already add to their holdings. Resistance is ahead at 4100, $125, and near the all-time high above $150, while support is at $80 and $68.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO hit the support level near $13 before the strong rebound, and it recovered above the $16.50 support/resistance. Today’s bottom is likely to be a tradable one after the crash. We expect only brief moves below $16.50, and investors should be adding to their positions now. Short-term traders should still wait until a new uptrend is established as volatility will likely remain high. Resistance levels are ahead at $22, $25, and $30, while support is a found at $13, and $11.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA held above the $0.35 level as we expected, and it is now trading above the line-in-the send support zone between the $0.45 and $0.48 levels, confirming the short-term relative strength of the coin. The declining trend is still intact in the coin, but the long-term picture is encouraging and investors could still add to their positions. Resistance is still ahead near $0.65, with key support at $0.35.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 116 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Chris G

    September 15, 2017 at 5:53 pm

    thanks mate

  2. vanh139@gmail.com

    September 15, 2017 at 6:51 pm

    Is it safe to say that near the $3200 level of BTC, purchase of other Altcoin can be made for short-term trade ?

    • vanh139@gmail.com

      September 15, 2017 at 6:55 pm

      And thanks a lot btw

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Remain Under Pressure but Supports Still Hold

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The correction of the post-crash rally is still dominant in the cryptocurrency segment, despite the encouraging bounce on Friday, as Bitcoin is dragging the market lower. The coin turned relatively weak in recent days after an extended period of outperformance, but even BTC is holding up well, with the bearish momentum being far from disastrous.

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Ethereum’s relative strength, on the other hand, is slowly building, as we first noted it during the Thursday sell-off, and the second largest could be spearhead the next leg higher. The early leaders of the rally, Ethereum Classic and Litecoin are also acting bullish, and the overall picture remains in line with the orderly correction scenario.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin still hasn’t tested the key $9000-$9200 zone despite several waves of selling that hit the coin, but it’s still stuck below the $10,000 level. We expect a short-term bottom in the coming week, as the momentum of the decline suggests accumulation, and investors should use the dip to add to their holdings, even if a test of the primary support zone is still possible here, with further resistance levels ahead above $10,000 at $11,300, $11,750, and $13,000.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin put in a higher short-term low during the weekend, retaining its leading position in the rally from a technical standpoint. The MACD indicator already gave a bullish signal after dipping into negative territory, but should Bitcoin continue to struggle, LTC could be in for more consolidation before despite the relative strength. The $200 level is still in focus with a strong resistance zone just ahead between $220 and $235, with the rally high at $250, while further key support is at $180.

Altcoins Mixed in Quiet Trading

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Percentage changes are not significant today following yesterday’s decline, and most of the majors are holding up above or near key support levels, with relatively low volatility and notable divergence between the coins.

As for the recently weaker coins, Ripple is still trading well below the $1 level, while IOTA managed to bounce hard off the correction low reaching back to the $1.9 resistance, and edging closer to a break-out from the still dominant downtrend.

The rest of most established coins are still drifting lower, with no major moves in the last few days, so without notable red flags, we remain positive regarding the long-term setup.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Oil Extends Rally as Nasdaq Leads Stocks Higher

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Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2749 1.38%
DAX 12,483 0.18%
WTI Crude Oil 63.58 1.29%
GOLD 1330.00 -0.16%
Bitcoin 10,14 -0.09%
EUR/USD 1.2295 -0.28%

US equities built up some bullish momentum towards the end of the week, ignoring the technical damage that the volatility-crash caused, and the major US indices rallied into the close today, squeezing the shorts. The Nasdaq, which led the rally as we expected, took out the key 6850 level in late trading and added another percent to, incredibly enough, finish only a hundred point of the all-time high.

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NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Should the tech benchmark retest the high next week, it will be amid very strong negative divergences, but hey, those divergences have been building for months now. The rally in equities was boosted by the dip in Treasury yields, especially at the long end of the curve, while Amazon continued ot lead the charge, closing right at the historic $1500 per share level.

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Russell 2000 (Small Cap) Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The advance in the Dow and the S&P 500 is much less convincing and with small caps also lagging the tech-behemoth juggernaut, we remain skeptical regarding the sustainability of the move. That said, if the broader indices stay above the key levels, we will be trading the long side in equities, even as from an investment standpoint, valuations are still way above acceptable.

Forex Markets and Commodities

The lackluster performance of European and Asian stocks adds to the negative divergences, especially as the Euro stopped appreciating against the Greenback, and that should be helping stocks of the old continent. Of course, the DAX and the EuroStoxx 50 could play catch-up next week, barring another surge in the common currency.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The most-traded forex pair remains in a short-term downtrend, as it failed to recapture the previously broken rising trendline, and the commodity related risk-on currencies also remained under pressure. The Canadian Dollar did bounce back off yesterday’s 8-week lows, boosted by the much hihger than expected inflation release and the jump in the price of crude oil.

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Oil benefited from the positive shift in sentiment, while the Syrian situation, which took a backseat in the headlines, still supports the rally. The Japanese Yen and gold were stable amid the risk-rally and that adds to our suspicions regarding the upside potential form these levels.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment started out the day with a strong bounce that carried the major coins higher by around 10%, but given the recent steep short-term pullback, even that wasn’t enough to turn the tide, and the day ended with an (almost usual) sell-off after the US close. Despite the recent volatility, the overall picture is still encouraging, with most of the majors being safely above the crash lows, likely in a new bullish cycle that has the potential to last for several more weeks or even months.

While new all-time highs are it guaranteed following the 60-70% declines among the largest coins, but even without those, plenty of upside potential is left for investors. With that in mind, investors should hold on to their coins and even add to their holdings on the short-term dips like the current one.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 116 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Majors Stage Rally but Strong Levels Still Ahead

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The cryptocurrency segment has recovered from a broad correction today in early trading, with the most valuable coins all turning into green during the session, despite the bearish start to the overnight session. With bottom-to-top gains of up to 15%, the rally helped in easing the worries of bulls, especially in the case of the relatively weaker coins.

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Bitcoin and most of the largest altcoins remained stable during the selloff, and BTC recaptured the $10,000 level quickly after trading as low as $9600 overnight. The initial rally topped out near $10,400, and the coin is trading back near the $10,000 level, as the bullish momentum faded away somewhat.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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That said, we expect the uptrend to continue even if the correction could still carry Bitcoin lower. Further strong support is found between $9000 and $9200, while targets are ahead at $11,300, $13,000, and $14,250.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum showed strength during the bounce again after yesterday, together with the early leaders of the rally, and although the coin dipped below the $845 level in the second half of the session, the signs remain positive for bulls. Support levels are now found at $780, $740, $625 and $575, while resistance is ahead near $910 and $1000.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 116 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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