Connect with us

Analysis

Analysis: Bitcoin Storms Higher on BIP 91 Lock-In as Crytpocurrencies Continue Rally

Published

on

The most valuable coin is still leading the way higher, after breaking out of its one-month long correction that took BTC 40% lower. The scaling debate has been resolved by a much-needed, but still debated consensus regarding the BIP 91 protocol, propelling Bitcoin towards its all-time highs.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace. Don't have an account? Send Jonas Borchgrevink an email -- //

The currency that has been pushed lower by momentum factors and hard fork fears is now in a short-term uptrend after forming a higher low and breaking the long-term trendline. The strong momentum move took the coin past $2500 and the key $2650 resistance level, following our previous projection from June. Long-term investors are advised to lock in some of the profits in BTC after the huge rally, although odds favor a rally to new highs in the coming weeks.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

The other majors are also higher, with  Ethereum lagging BTC in the last couple of days, but Dash, Monero, Ripple, Litecoin, Ethereum Classic, and most of the smaller coins following Bitcoin to new rally highs. The total value of the crypto-market is drifting towards $100 billion again, almost doubling in a matter of days after the weekend panic. Let’s see how the majors are shaping up following a very bullish week so far.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The ETH token failed to hit a new rally high, so far, as Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin in the recent leg higher, although it,s already up by 80% from its panic lows on Sunday. The coin faces a strong resistance zone around $250 with the declining trendline and several prior levels converging in the area. ETH will likely be helped by the strength in small cap coins and we expect a new short-term uptrend to be confirmed in the coming period.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin showed considerable strength amid the BIP 91 rally, and managed to rise above the crucial $44 level, re-entering the long-term uptrend that it broke recently. We still expect more sideways action in the short-term, but the long-term picture is definitely positive and a rally to test the prior highs should follow in the coming period. Below $44 further support is found ar $40 and at the $38 level.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash continued higher after the break-out yesterday following through the short-term buy signal with a strong rally above $200 and a spike towards the prior high of $220, as we expected. Our long-term target remains just above $250, with the short-term support/resistance level at $190 being in the focus, for now.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is still relatively weak, despite breaching the previous short-term rally high today and staying above the 0.1750 level. The two-month long declining trend remains intact, with the main trendline currently converging with the strong resistance zone around the 0.22 level. Short-term traders shoudl still avoid new positions in the currency, but invesotrs could still add to their holdings here.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is also among the weaker coins, trading well below the $18 level despite slightly rising above the $16 resistance. The long-term picture is still bullish, but the coin needs to stay above the $16 level to remain on a buy signal. ETC faces more resistance at $20 with the prior highs ahead at $23 as well.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero looks set to test the declining long-term trend in the coming days, after finally showing short-term strength, and clearing the $40 level yesterday. The coin formed a long-term base pattern between $32 and $37 and it could be in for a short-term consolidation before another leg higher. Monero is now on a short-term buy signal and above the declining trendline at $42, t faces a strong resistance level at $46.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Analysis

Will Crude Oil Reach $68 a Barrel in 2018?

Published

on

Crude oil prices are likely to climb close to $68 per barrel mark in 2018. We believe that oil supply will be hit due to a few geopolitical issues if they play out as we expect. Additionally, though high crude prices will be a strong incentive for the shale oil drillers to pump more, their increase is unlikely to tilt the deficit into oversupply.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace. Don't have an account? Send Jonas Borchgrevink an email -- //

Key observations

  1. The OPEC production cut is tilting the crude oil markets to a balance
  2. Rise in the shale oil production is unlikely to equal the increase in demand in 2018
  3. The geopolitical issues can tilt the markets into a deficit
  4. If crude oil breaks out of $55 per barrel, a move to $68 is likely

What are the current market conditions?

OPEC oil production cuts

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

The November 2016 production cut by OPEC and its allies is helping the market stabilize. The US crude stockpiles have been decreasing over the past few months, which indicates that the OPEC cuts are having their desired effect, albeit slowly.

The stockpiles in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations is down to just under 3 billion barrels, which is roughly 171 million barrels above the 5-year average. The OPEC wants to bring the inventory levels below the 5-year average.

Reports suggest that the OPEC and its allies will extend the deal, which is set to expire in March 2018 by another 9-months. However, the oil cartel is unlikely to deepen the cuts. In the September quarter, it had produced 32.9 million barrels per day (bpd), as against 33.4 million bpd production in November 2016, prior to the production cut agreement.

In the fourth quarter of this year, the OPEC production is expected to further decline to 32.7 million bpd.

US shale oil production

The main threat to any recovery in crude oil prices is the ever-increasing production of the US shale oil drillers. US crude oil production, which averaged about 9.2 million bpd in the first quarter of this year has increased to 9.56 million bpd by the third-quarter.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the average US crude oil production to increase to 9.9 million bpd in 2018, compared to 9.2 million bpd in 2017. That is an addition of 700,000 bpd of supply.

On the other hand, Investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co (TPH) expects US crude oil production to reach 10.2 million barrels in 2018.

So, on an average, crude oil production by the shale oil drillers is expected to increase by 700,000 bpd to 1 million bpd.

Demand increase in 2018

The global economy is growing at a decent pace, which is expected to increase the demand for crude oil. The US EIA expects the global demand to increase by 1.6 million bpd in 2018.

Therefore, with everything else being equal, this will lead to a faster reduction in crude oil inventory and an improvement in sentiment, but not a large increase in price.

So, why do we expect crude oil prices to increase next year?

What are the events that have changed in the recent past that warrant a change in our view?

For the past two years, oil prices have not responded to geopolitical tensions because of the supply glut.

However, next year, when the markets are in a balance, any geopolitical event that can have an effect on the supply side will tilt the market to a deficit, resulting in a rally in oil prices. What are these events?

The Iran sanctions

President Donald Trump has been a critic of the deal between the US and Iran, which led to lifting of sanctions on the Islamic nation. The deal is called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As a result of this deal, Iran was able to resume its exports, which have skyrocketed from about 1 million bpd in 2013 to about 2.3 million bpd in September 2017.

President Trump decertified the deal on October 13 but has still not quit the deal. He wants the deal to be renegotiated, however, the remaining countries who were party to the deal and Iran are unwilling to do so.

This creates a tension between the US and Iran. Chances are that President Trump will withdraw from the deal sometime next year to fulfill his pre-election promise of ripping the deal apart.

What are the repercussions if the US quits the deal?

Presently, the EU nations are not in favor of scrapping the deal with Iran. If the US unilaterally withdraws from the deal, Iran’s exports are unlikely to have an immediate effect, until the EU decides to support it. After all, EU has been the major consumer of Iranian oil since sanctions were lifted.

However, Iran’s fields are aging. They need fresh investments to keep the oil flowing at the current rate. If the US quits the deal, it is unlikely that major oil companies, that have operations in the US will enter Iran. This can limit the capital flows to the Islamic nation’s oil sector.

As an immediate effect, the US sanctions will “put at risk a few hundred thousand barrels of Iranian exports,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note. However, these are only estimates and the real impact will be known only after the US withdraws from the deal. Due to the uncertainty, the markets are likely to boost prices higher, until it gets a clear picture of the effects.

Geopolitical tensions in the gulf can lead to a severe shortage of oil

The northern Iraq region – Kurdistan – is a semi-autonomous region, which recently declared Independence from Iraq. This has led to a conflict between the two. While the Iraqi forces have declared their victory in the important oil-rich region of Kirkuk, the victory is not final because the Kurdish army did not put up a fight initially to defend the oil-rich region.

However, both the Kurdish peshmerga and the Iraqi army have been trained by the US. Therefore, if the conflict is not resolved quickly, through a dialogue, it can turn bloody and lead to disruption of about 600,000 bpd of oil supply.

“Oil prices could spike a lot higher on this development because this time is different, after years of war in the region. The battle, finally, is for the oil, and no other reason. In other words, here we go,” John Kilduff, partner at energy-focused investment manager Again Capital, told CNBC.

Unless a permanent solution is reached, we expect these issues to linger on and again crop up in 2018, propping prices higher.

What does the chart forecast?

The WTI crude has been broadly trading in a range of $42 and $55. Oil has taken support close to the $42 levels four times in the past year and a half. Therefore, this is a strong support level and can be used as a stop loss for our positions.

On the upside, the zone between $50 and $55 has been a strong resistance. Oil has struggled to breakout of this zone. However, if any geopolitical event triggers a breakout above $55, a rally to $68 levels is likely, which is the minimum target objective of a breakout from the range.

How can we benefit, if crude rallies according to our expectations?

The best way to benefit from the rise in crude oil is to trade the oil futures, but due to their volatility, it is not advisable to hold it for the long-term.

The oil-based ETFs can offer an opportunity to take a position in oil. Individual energy stocks are also another means of benefitting from a rally in crude oil.

We shall soon identify the best oil-based ETF and stocks that can offer good returns in 2018.

Risk to our analysis

Our analysis is based on the assumption that the existing geopolitical issues are unlikely to be sorted out within the next year. However, a good dialogue can easily put an end to these, thereby invalidating any risk-premium to crude oil.

Also, consistent high prices above $50 can increase the US shale oil production, much higher than the currently anticipated levels. This will prevent the markets from balancing out.

Due to infighting among its members, the OPEC and its allies can opt out of the production cut deal,  which will boost supply and can lead to a crash in crude oil prices.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Daily Analysis: Stocks Shoot for the Moon as Senate Passes Budget

Published

on

Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2574 0.53%
DAX 12991 0.05%
WTI Crude Oil 51.60 0.25%
GOLD 1283.00 -0.49%
Bitcoin 6038 6.40%
EUR/USD 1.1776 -0.64%

Financial markets got very active today thanks to the US Senate’s decision to pass the 2018 budget, paving the way for the tax reform plan that’s been welcomed by investors in recent weeks. The Dollar, equities, and Treasury yields all got substantially higher with the Dow and the S&P 500 scoring yet another all-time high. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 failed to follow the former benchmarks to record highs, but the short-term rally is still definitely intact, despite the overbought readings and the overvaluation issues.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace. Don't have an account? Send Jonas Borchgrevink an email -- //

Dow 30, Daily Chart Analysis

Forex markets were also very active as the Dollar cruised higher against all of its major counterparts, with the exception of the Great British Pound that rebounded strongly after the optimistic words of Angela Merkel regarding the Brexit process. The New Zealand Dollar continued yesterday’s negative trend, while the Canadian Dollar was also hit hard amid the early decline in the price of oil and the negative economic surprises from the country.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Gold is down yet again, as it failed to reclaim the $1300 level amid the improved global sentiment that also weighed on the Japanese Yen as well. The Yen’s weakness helped the Nikkei to another two-decade high, as the USD/JPY pair surged to 113.50 for the first time since July.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s new all-time high made headlines in the segment today, as the most valuable coin surged past $6000 for the first time ever, even as the currency traded as low as $5100 just a few days ago. BTC also reached $100 billion in market cap, and the coin accounts for more than 57% of the total value of the crypto segment.

The other majors are virtually unchanged despite Bitcoin’s rise, with only IOTA losing significant ground and Ripple trading in a volatile fashion after its crazy week. Litecoin and Monero also performed relatively well, while Ethereum got stuck below the $315 line yet again, and NEO finally settled down, although it continues to trade below the crucial $30 level.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
14:30 CANADA CPI 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
14:30 CANADA Core Retail Sales -0.7% 0.3% 0.2%
16:00 US Existing Home Sales 5.39 mill 5.32 mill 5.35 mill

Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
14:30 CANADA Wholesale Sales 1.1% 1.5%

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Tests $6000 as Market Settles Down

Published

on

Bitcoin is in the center of attention yet again, as the most valuable coin is knocking on the door of the $100 billion level in market capitalization. The coin touched our long-term target at $6000 on several exchanges, but it’s now trading slightly below the historic level.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace. Don't have an account? Send Jonas Borchgrevink an email -- //

While the rest of the market is quiet, BTC is very active, and it could be in for a volatile weekend, as despite the long-term overbought readings, the short-term uptrend is clearly intact. That said, investors should avoid opening new positions here, and consider lowering their exposure further, while traders should only trade with smaller than usual sizes. Support levels are found at $5400, $5000, and near the $4650 level.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

As the rest of the majors are still recovering from the recent correction, the total value of the segment is below its all-time high, with BTC’s dominance now standing at 57%. Most of the largest coins are little changed, with Monero and Liteocin showing considerable strength and IOTA still being the weakest of the majors. With all attention on BTC let’s see how the most traded altcoins look before the weekend.

(more…)

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Trending