Bitcoin Regains Momentum but Overbought Conditions Threaten Continued Rally
Bitcoin’s price bounced back Monday, though the extent of the rally was fairly modest compared with last week’s gain, a sign that overbought conditions were finally taking their toll on the market. The leading digital currency continues to find strong support near $5,000 but has failed to set new yearly highs since last Wednesday.
The bitcoin price peaked at $5,218.60 on Bitfinex and was last seen trading at $5,182.90, where it was little changed. In either case, the price has pulled back from extreme overbought levels seen last week. The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart peaked near 90, levels not seen since the height of the bull market in 2017. Any reading above 70 signifies overbought risk.
Market-wide data from CoinMarketCap show an average bitcoin price of $5,168 at the time of writing. That represents a gain of 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Reported trade volumes have declined sharply over the past week but remain well above levels seen in the past year. CoinMarketCap reports more than $11.2 billion in BTC market turnover on virtual currency exchanges.
At current levels, bitcoin’s market capitalization is worth $91.2 billion. Bitcoin’s dominance rate is currently 51.9% of the entire cryptocurrency market.
Start of a New Cycle
As Hacked reported on Saturday, bitcoin only recently entered a new four-year cycle, which represents a new market paradigm that could set the stage for an eventual return to record highs. The path forward is far from linear and investors can expect several price shakeouts sprinkled in between prolonged periods of lateral trading.
We can be relatively confident that bitcoin has entered a new market cycle because of the gap between current prices and the multi-year low set in December. The longer bitcoin holds at current levels, the less susceptible it will be to a new bear-market low.
If the present cycle began in January, give or take, then the four-year horizon will have run its course by the end of 2023. Of course, these are only approximate periods and may be slightly shorter or longer. Bitcoin’s last four-year cycle was marked by a 153-week uptrend and a 52-week bear market for a total of 205 weeks. That’s about three weeks short of a full four years.
Additional reading – Crypto Weekly Recap: Market Correction Fails to Shake Bitcoin Bulls.
Bitcoin is coming off back-to-back monthly gains following a brutal half-year losing streak. Based on previous cycles, bitcoin’s rally could extend for another two-three months before another shakeout ensues. That’s because, historically, bitcoin’s dominant trends have lasted an average of five-to-six months, according to crypto trader Bob Loukas (both timeframes are within the aforementioned four-year cycle).
Read more about bitcoin’s emergence from the bear cycle: Crypto Spring? Bitcoin on Track to Snap Six-Month Losing Streak Following Spectacular Week.
Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.
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