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Bitcoin Price: Whales, Not Bears, Are In Control

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Bitcoin’s price charted a narrow uptrend on Saturday, as calm returned to the market following a mysterious collapse that has many in the cryptocurrency community theorizing about a potential cause. As the author previously reported, bitcoin’s sudden collapse after weeks of sustained growth was a sign that a whale, and not the bears, was dictating the moves.

BTC/USD Update

The bitcoin price reached a session high of $6,572.20 on Bitfinex, marking the second time in as many days that values have approached $6,600. On Friday, bitcoin peaked at $6,593.16, according to CoinMarketCap. The $6,600 level is not only a psychological resistance, it approximates the 200-period moving average. For the recovery to continue, bullish forces must break-out of this level. A failure to do so would mean a double-top formation, which is usually seen as a bearish indicator.

At the time of writing, bitcoin was valued at $6,532 on Bitfinex, having gained 0.8% from the previous close. Total trade volumes across all exchanges amounted to $3.5 billion, down from as much as $4.3 billion on Friday.

Whale Spotting

Whereas most technical observers of the bitcoin market focus on the general actions of the bulls and the bears, it has become apparent that this dichotomy is no longer sufficient in explaining price action. Increasingly, analysts have relied on a different classification – and an entirely different species – to explain some of the influence on bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin whales, as big holders are commonly known, have exerted significant influence on the market. While this may not have been the case several years ago, the 2017 bull market led to an enormous concentration of wealth. A look at the bitcoin rich list shows 940 wallet addresses worth $10 million or more at today’s prices. Data from Chainanalysis in April showed that 1,600 investors collectively controlled $37.5 billion of available bitcoin.

It’s not difficult to see how this extreme concentration came about. After all, a $10,000 investment in bitcoin five years ago would have yielded a total return of 10,992% through December 2017 when the market peaked.

When bitcoin plunged $1,000 over the span on 24 hours on Sept. 5-6, investors immediately looked for answers in the usual places: technical charts and news headlines. Although the decline seems to have been aided by reports that Goldman Sachs had abandoned its plan for a bitcoin trading desk, the extent of the selloff suggested that a whale was on the move.

As has been reported elsewhere, a prominent bitcoin holder had moved 110,000 units of BTC and BCH from multiple wallets prior to the price collapse that began on Sept. 5. At least 14% of the fortune was transferred to digital currency exchanges like Bitfinex and Binance. The holder in question, believed by some to be Dread Pirate Roberts of the former Silk Road, once held as many as 111,114 BTC, which is equivalent to $2.2 billion at peak prices.

Although some whales are clearly looking to cash out after the plunge in bitcoin’s price, others may have played a direct role in the bear market. As Hacked reported earlier this year, the whales may have actually loaded up on bitcoin prior to the launch of cryptocurrency futures in December and have been gradually unwinding their positions ever since. Prior to futures being introduced, there was no direct mechanism for shorting bitcoin.

While short-sellers have held a firm grip on the market for much of the year, long-term holders and miners have successfully defended the $6,000 price point on multiple occasions. This suggests bitcoin may have already found a price floor and that short-sellers no longer have the ability (or the supplies) to drive values lower. When we initially speculated about this in June, we reported that each successive decline in bitcoin’s price had been less severe than the previous. Although prices have since fallen below $6,000 multiple times, it didn’t take long for the market to recover.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 692 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Weekend Bounce Fails to Turn Bearish Tide

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The major cryptocurrencies continue to be stuck in declining trends, despite the bounce that followed the latest technical breakdown in the segment. The top coins failed to recover above the prior bear market lows sustainably, and today, the market turned lower again, with the weakest currencies already threatening with new lows.

The long-term picture remains overwhelmingly bearish, and out trend model is negative across the board, with only Bitcoin showing relative stability, still holding up near its prior low. There is no sign of bullish momentum among the majors and traders and investors should remain defensive here, until at least a short-term trend change, as despite the negative sentiment and the deeply oversold broader picture, odds still favor new bear market lows in the coming period.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin bounced back after last week’s breakdown and tested the $3600 level before turning lower again. Since the coin failed at the key level, the short-term sell signal in our trend model remains in place, together with the clear long-term sell signal.

A move towards the long-term support zone near $3000 remains likely, and traders still shouldn’t enter new positions here. The coin is well below the key $4000-$4050 zone, and the short-term downtrend is still intact, despite the recent rally attempts.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is also stuck below the prior bear market low and the key 95-$100 support zone, similarly to Bitcoin, and although the coin is not showing clear relative weakness anymore, it is still bearish on both time-frames in our trend model, with the steep downtrend being intact.

New lows are still likely in the coming weeks, and traders and investors should stay away from the coin Strong resistance above the primary zone is ahead near $120, $130, and $150, while long-term support is found in the $73-$75 zone.

Bearish Leaders Remain Weak

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple continues to be relatively weak from a short-term perspective and the coin is hovering near the $0.30 following the failed rally attempts, which were capped by the $0.32 resistance level. The coin is on sell signals on both time-frames due to the recent weakness and technical breakdown, and a test of the bear market low near $0.26 now seems likely. Primary support is now found at $0.28, with further resistance levels ahead at $0.3550 and $0.3750.

Litecoin/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is also showing relative weakness, despite its brief period of strength in November and the coin is trading just above the next major support zone which is found near the $23 price level. The steep long-term downtrend is clearly intact and our trend model bearish both time-frames, and new lows are likely in the coming days, with strong resistance ahead near $26 and between $30 and $30.50.

Monero/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On another negative note, the bearish leaders are still not showing signs of stability, barely bouncing off their lows during the broad rally attempt. Monero is still among the weakest majors, and the coin looks ready for another leg lower, with last week’s breakdown clearly being intact.

We expect the downtrend to continue in XMR and the other relatively weak coin, and traders shouldn’t enter even new positions here, despite the oversold long-term momentum readings in the segment.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 412 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Volatility Returns to Q1 Heights; Downturn Sends Traders to TA?

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The price volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new nine-month high on Sunday, returning to the kind of flux not seen since early March of 2018.

This comes barely a month after Bitcoin volatility struck a two-year low on November 11th, when the level of flux in BTC’s market value fell as low as the 1% mark. This demonstrated Bitcoin’s ability to function as a store of value, but only for a month or so.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Rising

According to independent data sourced by Bitvol.info, Bitcoin volatility has risen by almost five percentage points in the last thirty days.

The two year low of 1.02%  was held for just one day back in early November, while the 1% – 1.99% range was maintained for little over a month, starting from October. Everything changed on November 14th when the value of BTC plunged, sparking a sudden increase to overall volatility which has risen day on day ever since.

As of Sunday, Nov 9th, BTC volatility was measured at 5.73% for the previous thirty day period – the highest since Q1 when the market was still feeling the shockwaves from spike at the turn of the year.

Looking back, all the talk of BTC as a reliable and stable store of value in the last few months now seems rather immature. Such noises were helped by BTC’s month-long spell in the 1% volatility range, and also in comparison to the uncertain flux of some major stocks and fiat currencies in the same period.

Focus Turns to TA?

Looking at the noises we make during various market conditions can reveal a lot about our collective mentality. Now that stability is no longer the flavour of the day, the focus seems to have switched from the fundamental to the technical – as evidenced by the sudden increase to Google searches for the term: ‘technical analysis’.

Since early November, searches for the term have increased by 50%, with a 28.5% increase coming in the last two weeks alone. For some context, the highest concentration of searches for the phrase within the last eight years came between December 2017 and January 2018.

The increase is unsurprising – short and medium-term traders seek to maximize gains while minimizing losses, and at the same time, long-term traders try to find out where the bottom is before they go all in.

Bitcoin Price

After a 12% decline in the past week, BTC was basically level for day on Monday afternoon as it continued to float in the $3,500 – $3,600 range.

The $3,700 mark was almost broken on Sunday evening when the coin price hit $3,685. As the day goes on data aggregators will start to register a 3.3% loss for BTC as the twenty-four hour charts fall into line.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 103 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Altcoins

MobileGo (MGO) Is Up More Than 40% Since Thanksgiving

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The last few weeks have been an extremely challenging time for crypto enthusiasts.  Major coins like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have been demolished while many smaller alternative coins have done even worse.  Fortunately, there are still a few bright spots left in the market that traders may want to turn their attention toward.  One of those bright spots is MobileGo (MGO).

Price Surge

Although most cryptos have taken a severe beating in the past few weeks, MGO has done just the opposite.  As seen in the chart below, MGO has soared by more than 40% since Thanksgiving.

A few of the reasons for the surge include being in an industry with rising popularity, innovative methods of earning gaming currency, and key strategic partnerships.

Exploding Popularity of the Gaming Industry

Despite the volatility in the cryptocurrency markets, blockchain remains one of the most exciting technologies being developed.  Blockchain has the potential to disrupt global industries and take them to levels once thought impossible.  MobileGo is attempting to do just that in the gaming industry.

The Gaming market is an extremely exciting opportunity as the industry is growing by leaps and bounds.  According to Market Researcher, Newzoo, the global games market is expected to grow from $137.9 billion in 2018 to more than $180.1 billion in 2021.

GShare Development

One of the company’s main innovations is the development of GShare.  GShare is a special tool which allows its users to earn GShare Gold coins by harnessing the power of their computers.  In this way, it’s very similar to cryptocurrency mining.  These coins (not cryptocurrency) are a soft currency which will be earned as soon as the user runs the app and presses the “start” button.  Users can play their favorite games, work, or simply browse the internet.

Additionally, gamers can also earn GShare Gold Coins by entering tournaments.  There is a wide variety of tournament options so that players can choose tournaments that fit their interests and skill levels.  In this way, it’s really an open environment that caters to individuals of all backgrounds.

Once the coins are earned, users will have several different redemption options that include the following:

  • Tournament Entry Fees
  • Social Activity Platforms

The option to use the coins through social media avenues is extremely interesting.  This presents an opportunity for the coins to gain international recognition by uniting different groups of people for positive results.  These social activity opportunities should become clearer soon.

Xsolla Partnership

MGO coins can be earned through special promotions, exchange trading, or by winning tournaments.  The last one is especially important as it’s directly related to GShare.  Users can use their GShare Gold coins to enter tournaments that fit their skill level.  And, if successful, users will earn MGO coins by performing well.

Being able to earn MGO coins by winning tournaments is very exciting considering the recent partnership news with Xsolla.  Xsolla provides game developers with a comprehensive suite of flexible tools and service to help launch, monetize and scale their games globally.  In late October, Xsolla announced that it would start accepting made-for-gaming cryptocurrency, MobileGo, for its PC and mobile games partners.

The partnership means that developers will be able to receive royalty payouts in MGO cryptocurrency.  As stated earlier, the gaming industry is expected to grow significantly in the future which makes this a very compelling opportunity.  As blockchain technology and gaming continue to grow in the future, it’s safe to assume that more and more game developers will be interested in cashing out via cryptocurrency.  MGO being an option this early in the game is a massive advantage.

Conclusion

Although it’s still early for MobileGo, the company appears to be making all the right moves in an effort to attain blockchain gaming dominance.  Only the future will tell whether the company will prove successful, but things certainly appear promising at the moment.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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