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Bitcoin Fork Takes a Big Bite as the Market looks for Logic

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If you are depending on fundamentals to trade any digital currency you will end up frustrated and broke.  In reality, digital currencies do not have the kind of fundamentals like stocks, and in this early phase of fat tail volatility, you can only depend on technical support and resistance levels to guide you. Anticipating and translating the media cycle news will not help you make money in digital currencies.  Staying with the trend in assets is a proven winning strategy.

I can tell you much of the chatter today about the selloff in Ethereum is related to the Bitcoin fork, now I have zero idea if that should pressure prices lower, but it did, and it spread to all DC ( digital currencies ).  I noted also during this decline that all of the important support levels for DC top 25 are intact.  Let me also say that if you are trading digital currencies from the short side, or day trading them, you are a member of an elite club that is currently the fastest game in town, and you are holding firecrackers in your digital wallets.

The Trend is Your Friend

During trending markets, it is always practical to trade with the trend versus bucking it, so if you are involved in these currencies you will find it more manageable to trade from the long side.  I suggest you watch the next up-move and watch how these DC’s (Ethereum, Litecoin and Dash) have melt ups.  This frenzied buying reflects the trend, and as long as the support levels remain intact ($165 in ETH) the melt ups will continue.

The chatter about the Bitcoin fork is irrelevant, and the movement in DC could have easily been related to Trump Jr releasing his email string to wolving reporters.  If you look at the stock market today as soon as Jr tweeted all assets sold off.  So the Bitcoin fork is just an unnecessary piece of silverware at an epicurean buffet.  You don’t need a fork, just load up the plate, run back to your table, and trade all DC from the long side with the trend.  Pick a digital currency and become an expert, it is important to be a ground floor follower in any asset class.  This way you are super experienced when volatility hits and will allow you to make better decisions; with this comes profit.

Fundamentals on the Sideline?

Fundamentals will have little connection to pricing for the next few years, developing trade-able fundamental metrics related to expected actions is a fool’s journey.  Stop looking at how they made the sausage.  Invest in digital currency as an asset class for the long-term.  Know that stocks like Amazon traded with the trend for a decade, real estate had 1 or 2 blips in the last 20 years, and buying pullbacks in assets is a proven winning strategy.  Over trading is for losers, cocktail chatter about how they make the digital sausage is mind numbing.  Research an asset, have a long-term investing plan, and stick to it.  Stay long any good asset, and it will be what is was intended to be – a long-term investment that will bring you security – not an unnecessary salad fork at your table.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Steve began his career at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 1980 and ran Morgan Stanley Derivative Prop Trading for the firm. He continued his career as a Trader/Portfolio Manager for multiple Hedge Funds during the Internet Boom of the 90's. Steve is known as an expert in trading stocks and digital currency and has published thousands of articles and archived video with important market participants related to US Equities, private shares, and crypto currency. He offers a humorous, unique insight related to volatile stocks and the related back stories and drivers. He is a featured speaker on the conference circuit specializing in market volatility, liquidity and emerging market assets.




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  1. SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

    July 12, 2017 at 5:07 am

    Great Article!

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ripple Leads Oversold Bounce

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The major cryptocurrencies are holding on to their recent short-term gains, as the oversold bounce that followed the early-week liquidation continues. One of the most oversold top coins, Ripple is leading the way higher as it broke out above the $0.30 resistance and rallied to $0.32 in early trading. The total value of the market reached $215 billion, but as Bitcoin and Ethereum are still capped by the $6500 and $300 levels respectively a broad short-term trend change is not confirmed in the segment.

Monero is also among the relatively stronger coins today, extending its bounce above the $90 level, and getting close to the key $100 zone in the process. Litecoin, which has been also showing early signs of strength, failed to build on the rally, and as the leadership is still weak, correlations are high, and the downtrends are intact with regards to most of the coins, traders should remain defensive until further signs of strength in the segment emerge.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is trading in the strong $0.30-$0.32 zone, after the overnight rally, being the only major that triggered a short-term buy signal. Despite the signal, the long-term bearish setup is still clearly in place, and the coin continues to face strong resistance at $0.32, with a weaker level also ahead near $0.35, and traders should only treat the current move as a counter-trend rally. Support below $0.30 is found near $0.28, with a stronger long-term level at $0.26, and the coin already cleared the oversold short-term momentum readings.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

We are still looking at Ethereum as the most important gauge of the state of the market, as ETH has been in the epicenter of the recent steep selloff, and now it is trying to gain ground above the key $300 level.

Despite the relative stability of the coin, it failed to follow Ripple higher, and also failed to trigger a short-term buy signal, as the declining trend clearly remained intact, even as the steepest trendline has been broken. The coin faces strong resistance just above the current price level and near $335, while support is found between $275 and $280 and near $260.

Bitcoin Still Stuck Below Resistance

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

BTC has been trading in a narrow range below the $6500 level as altcoins attempted to rally, but the relatively strong coin still failed to show bullish meaningful momentum. The coin remains on a neutral short-term trend signal, and with the key long-term $5850 level not being in danger, the long-term outlook is also neutral.

A move above $6500 could still trigger a short-term buy signal, but the rest of the segment will likely need further consolidation for a trend change, and further strong resistance is ahead at $6750 and $7000, while support is found at $6275 and $6000.

EOS/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While a few coins are showing promising short-term signs, most of the majors remain deeply wounded from a technical perspective, with the likes of NEO, IOTA, DASH, and EOS all managing only a weak bounce, despite the clearly oversold momentum readings. With that in mind, the odds of a re-test of the lows are still high, and volatility might increase again in the coming days.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Why Investors Should Keep an Eye on DigiByte (DGB)

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DigiByte (DGB) has been around since early 2014 but like many altcoins only came to public and commercial prominence during the market ramp-up of 2017. In fact, between January of last year and now, DGB coins have grown over 9,400% in value – a figure that holds up even now in the midst of a market downturn.

Any coin price recorded during January’s spike shouldn’t be relied upon as an indicator of future performance, but the +50,000% growth recorded during the peak of January 7th is surely worthy of a mention.

DigiByte is self-described as the “Fastest, longest, most decentralized & secure UTXO blockchain in the world today.” Bold claims indeed, but do they stand up?

The Blockchain

DigiByte’s claims on being the longest blockchain might have something to do with the block times. DigiByte blocks come along every fifteen seconds, and for a blockchain that has been mined since 2014 this adds up to a very long chain of blocks – outnumbering the older but slower Bitcoin blockchain which produces blocks every ten minutes.

What about its claims on being the fastest? Well right now DigiByte can handle 560 transactions per second, which vastly outnumbers the seven and fifteen transactions per second handled by Bitcoin and Ethereum respectively. DigiByte intend for that number to rise, with a projected 280,000 tps targeted for 2035.

Placing future projections to one side, even the current tps rate of 560 is enough to grab attention. The speeds on the network are helped in no small part by the large number of node operators on the blockchain, with 70,000 at the time of writing.

Hence when DigiByte claim to be the most decentralized blockchain, they might once again have a point. Compare the DGB node count to Bitcoin’s 9,000 or Ethereum’s 16,000 and you see the difference.

As for its claims on being the most secure…

Multi-Algo

Miners of all stripes and colors can find something to do on DigiByte with five different mining algorithms employed in the production of DGB. ASIC miners are catered to with the presence of SHA256 and Scrypt mining; and Skein, Groestl and Qubit make up the CPU and GPU end of the spectrum.

Each of the five algorithms take a 20% share of the block rewards, with each algo having its difficulty adjusted automatically in relation to the strength of its respective mining pool. The splitting of the mining duties also helps secure the network against 51% attacks, since any attacker would have to control a majority of at least three of the algorithm groups.

The fifteen second block times mentioned above are achieved by having each of the five algorithms produce a block in constant succession. Thus, each of the five algorithms are cycled every minute and a half.

A Brief History

This all sounds well and good, and has been enough to carry DigiByte to within the top thirty ranked cryptocurrencies in the world, but this weren’t always so rosy for Jared Tate’s project.

In fact, when Tate launched DigiByte it was also intended to be used as a transactional currency within the gaming industry. If necessity is the mother of invention, then perhaps it was the hungry demands of a large-scale gaming industry which pushed DigiByte’s back-end evolution.

Ultimately the gaming focus failed. After finding integration on popular games such as Minecraft and League of Legends, the project collapsed in spring of 2017 due to ongoing technical issues and denial-of-service attacks.

A detailed history of DigiByte’s development can be viewed on their website, but the development team were instrumental in introducing the DigiShield technology which was eventually adopted by a host of other mainstream blockchains as a defence against mining attacks.

The blockchain has undergone four hardforks since its inception, with each introducing new updates in the form of the fairly self-describing Multi-Algo, Multi-Shield, DigiSpeed and the aforementioned DigiShield.

SegWit was also implemented on DigiByte in early 2017, via one of three softforks enacted on the blockchain thus far.

Notable Partners

Well, getting anywhere close to becoming bedfellows with the likes of Minecraft and League of Legends is no small feat, even if the association seems to have ended. But DigiByte also brushed shoulders with the likes of Microsoft when it was added to Azure back in 2016, although news from that front has been quieter in 2018.

In recent times DigiByte partnered up with Investa – a financial services provider which aims to incorporate DGB onto its ATM machines and debit cards.

Recent Performance

DigiByte is one of the few coins to have recorded higher lows and (almost) higher highs since January. Look at the chart below and see one of the few altcoins not to have completely disintegrated amid the bear market of the last eight months.

DigiByte sets itself up as a competitor to Bitcoin, not to other altcoins. It took a while for DGB to get going (possibly due to the purposeful lack of an ICO or whitepaper) but when it did it fired full-steam ahead almost immediately.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 38 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Altcoins

Why Investors Should Pay Attention to Golem

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Did you know most of us only use a fraction of our computers’ capacity? Thinking about it, you wouldn’t expect most of the tasks we do on a daily basis to take up much computing power. So what do you think happens to the rest of your capacity?

It sits idle, and nothing is done with it. Your computer is still on and consuming electricity and this power goes to waste. Based on this exact “problem” Golem has come up with a solution that ends up being a lot like AirBnb for your computer.

Golem has created a peer-to-peer system for sharing computing power across the network. The result is a flexible, scalable solution that aggregates idle resources and democratizes the payout to the millions of people on the network.

Golem’s Long Road to an ICO

It took 3 years, but Golem finally completed the sale of their GNT token in early April 2018. The platform is built on ETH and utilizes smart contracts to drastically bring down the cost of distributed computing. The sale was completed in under 20 minutes and raised 820,000 ETH ($340 million).

How it works is that suppliers have extra computing power and are willing to be paid GNT in exchange for their computers performing tasks for requesters.

The app is 100% secure and operates in the background, and you can also choose what fraction of your computing power to use, so there’s no worry about getting slowed down by its operation. Ideally, the only time you would notice it is when you earn some ETH for performing tasks for other users.

Golem’s Economics

The mechanics of the market are pretty simple. There is demand (requesters) and supply (providers). The supply is essential, because there are no central servers that are able to perform computations. Providers will come to the network with the goal of earning a few dollars a month in ETH, at virtually no cost to themselves.

On the demand side, you have users who buy GNT tokens in order to pay for providers to perform tasks for them. Requesters generally join the network because of its lower cost. They are able to set the maximum they will pay (their bid) and Golem distributes the tasks appropriately.

A final party to consider are the software developers who enjoy access to a distribution channel that helps them depoy and monetize new software. Golem has a store that enables this function and adds much more value to the network.

The obvious competitors to Golem are big cloud services like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. The fact is that these services are grossly overpriced because the companies have developed an oligopoly that allows them to collect high margins. This is crazy because computing power is not actually a scarce resource and this is the market inefficiency Golem aims to fix.

Golem’s Long Game

Golem is currently trading at a fraction of a dollar ($0.145) and is down from a high above $1.00. The same downturn has affected many companies in the blockchain space, and Golem has received extra flak for taking so long to release their product. At the same time, another way to look at this is as a major buying opportunity.

Most of this has to do not with ineptitude, but a complex framework (Ethereum) that isn’t perfectly designed for integration yet. However, in the long-run Golem still has huge potential. As more features are released (Clay Golem is next) and they scale to be able to help data centres, there is no limit to how far they can go. The size of the market has been proven by Amazon and Microsoft, and now it is up to Golem to see if they can get a piece of the pie.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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