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Market Overview

The Biggest Buyer Will Become the Biggest Seller

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Though the overall value of the cryptocurrency market has remained the same, funds within the market are transferring from coin to coin at a rapid rate.

The craze of new coins coming online is astounding. More than 100 new digital assets have been created since the beginning of the year. Some of them with a clear purpose and a good team, some of them, not so much.

What boggles my brain is the amount of money that some of these new startups are raising. Many of them have already collected more than $100 million from alternative investors. This is more money than Leonardo Dicaprio makes in a year ($72M) and more than the annual expenditure of the Republic of Palau($99.5).

So, unless these companies really need an Airbus A320 ($96.7M) what do they plan to spend that money on??

But what really concerns me, is that all of this money was raised in cryptocurrencies. So if they ever do decide to spend it offline, they’re going to need to cash out. Of course, as we saw with GDAX last month, they don’t always have the decency to spread their orders out.

Mati Greenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Please note: All data, graphs & figures are valid as of July 6th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Now, let’s amplify this by a billion times!!!

The scary situation outlined above is very similar to what’s happening in the world of “real money.”

However, the scope of the cryptomarket is virtually nothing when compared to fiat, which represents the entire monetary system that all 7 billion of us currently rely on.

It goes like this…

In 2008 there was a financial crisis due to way too many investments in all the wrong places.

In response to the crisis the United States Federal Reserve, in an unprecedented maneuver, stepped into the open market as the largest buyer of financial assets in the history of mankind.

Here, let’s take a look at the S&P 500 index since just before the crisis. The crash and recovery.

As you can see, they’ve breathed enough money into the market for it to rise about 35% higher than the peak in 2007. Talk about overkill.

Now for the scary part…

Over the last few months, the Fed has been shifting their strategy. Instead of telling the markets that they will be raising the interest rates, they’ve been talking seriously about selling off $4.5 Trillion worth of assets that they’ve bought over the past decade.

Now, of course, they plan to do this gradually and they understand the implications but the facts remain the same…

The biggest buyer in the market is about to become the biggest seller.

Certainly, the head of the Fed Janet Yellen has more data than I do but I simply cannot wrap my head around her recent statement that “we will not see another financial crisis in our lifetimes.”

Maybe it’s pride. Maybe faith. Perhaps she’s right. It’s definitely possible that they’ve printed enough money to last for the next 4 or 5 generations. Only time will tell.

What I can tell you with reasonable certainty is that the printing policy, in conjunction with historically low interest rates, has tampered with the way that people view savings and the way that investors view risk.

At this point, it’s pretty clear to everybody that money sitting in the bank is money wasted and the trend of people taking more and more risk in order to seek out higher returns is currently at an unsustainable level.

With that, I’ll leave you for today. Please feel free to approach me directly @MatiGreenspan with any questions, comments, or concerns. Have a lovely day ahead.

This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Selloff Resumes as Italian Budget Crisis Deepens

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It was another ugly day for risk assets globally, with equities getting hit particularly hard and although the major US indices managed to hold on above last week’s lows, the charts are now looking wounded even on Wall Street.

There were plenty of negative catalysts dragging lower stocks during the session, with especially the ugly Italy-European Union budget debate causing turmoil in Italian government bonds, equities, and to a lesser extent, the Euro.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The new bear market lows in the main Chinese indices also weighed heavily on sentiment throughout the day, while the post-Fed-minutes rise in US Treasury Yields also added to the worries. Wall Street opened lower, and after a brief rally attempt sellers took control of the market, and the rout didn’t stop until the closing bell with the Nasdaq leading the way lower yet again.

The tech benchmark shed a bit more than 2% on the day, and stocks finished with deep losses across the board, despite the better-than-expected quarterly report of Philip Morris (PM) and the beat in the Philly Fed Index.

Russell 2000, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The short-term trend in the US is undoubtedly bearish, and although all benchmarks, including the Russell 2000, are holding up above their recent multi-month lows, we would still treat any rally as a selling opportunity in stocks.

Tomorrow we could see fireworks again, and the Asian session could already be very active, since several key Chinese economic releases are coming out, such as the quarterly GDP, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production.

2-Year US Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Treasuries had a very hectic session, as yields, especially on the short end of the curve got close to their recent highs in early trading before pulling back due to the intensifying Italy-related worries towards the end of the US session.

Given the recent hawkish tilt in the Fed’s rhetoric, strong flattening of the yield curve could be ahead, should the equity selloff deepen, as we don’t see new highs on long-dated yields in that case, but a quick change in the tightening schedule of the US central seems less likely now.

Dollar Confirms Swing Low amid Risk-Off Flows

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The EUR/USD pair dipped below the 1.15 level again, and although the momentum of the move is weak, the Dollar Index also confirmed the swing low that we pointed out yesterday. The reserve currency could be ready to test its August highs, even as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies are still relatively strong.

Given the expansive fiscal policy of the Trump administration, it’s no surprise that the Dollar is not surging higher, even as the troubles in the Eurozone are way deeper. Still, the Greenback entered another leg higher in its uptrend, and besides the safe-haven Yen, no major currency is in a bullish technical position compared to the USD even form a short-term perspective.

That said, forex markets could see very hectic conditions in the coming busy months, with the US midterm elections, the possible Chinese crisis, the ongoing quantitative tightening, and of course Donald Trump all capable of causing wild swings in the major pairs.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 379 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Market Overview

Market Update: U.S. Stocks Take the Plunge as China Selloff Intensifies; Crypto Institutional Lending on the Rise

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U.S. stocks swung back sharply into negative territory on Thursday, as a fresh selloff in Chinese markets weighed on investors’ sentiment even as Beijing escaped the “manipulator” label. Cryptocurrenices continued to hover in a narrow range, as risk-off sentiment in traditional markets failed to spur new demand.

Stocks Resume Slide

All of Wall Street’s major indexes finished in the red, with the large-cap S&P 500 Index closing down 1.4% at 2,768.84. Nine of 11 primary sectors contributed to the declines, with information technology, industrials and communication services among the biggest laggards.

Sliding tech shares dragged the Nasdaq Composite Index sharply lower. The benchmark settled down 2.1% at 7,485.14.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 327.36 points, or 1.3%, to close at 25,379.32.

On Tuesday, the major bourses recorded their biggest single-day advance since March, buoyed by upbeat corporate earnings and easing tensions over Saudi Arabia.

China Roils Markets

Stocks in mainland China were at the center of the selloff on Thursday, as the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell to its lowest level in four years. The index closed down 2.9%, extending its October slide to a staggering 12%.

The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index fell 2.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng benchmark finished flat.

China’s national currency, the yuan renminbi, touched its lowest level in 21 months after the U.S. Treasury refrained from labelling Beijing a currency “manipulator” in its biannual report. The Trump administration has called out China for manipulating the yuan to maintain a lop-sided trade advantage against the U.S. and other nations. This has prompted calls from within the administration to implement heavy import duties as well as recognize China as a currency manipulator. So far, President Trump has pursued tariffs on more than $250 billion in Chinese imports.

Cryptocurrencies Hold Steady

For a fourth straight session, cryptocurrency prices were locked in a narrow range on Thursday, as a lack of trading catalysts kept market players on the sidelines. This comes despite a sharp rise in futures trading volume in the third quarter, according to CME Group.

The combined value of digital assets in circulation reached a high of $212 billion on Thursday. It would later fall back below $209 billion on subdued trading volumes. Bitcoin, the leading crypto based on market cap and volume, continues to trade comfortably above $6,500. It’s share of the overall market has increased to 54.1%, according to CoinMarketCap.

Institutional adoption of cryptocurrency is steadily rising, according to a new report by Genesis Capital, who in March became the first company to launch an institutional lending business. As CCN reports, the new service has originated more than $550 million in loans over the past seven months, with $130 million still outstanding.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 647 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Analysis

Pre-Market Analysis And Chartbook: Stocks Turn Lower as Treasury Yields Eye Multi-Year Highs Again

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Thursday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,791 -0.91%
DAX 30 11,664 -0.43%
WTI Crude Oil 69.16 -1.30%
GOLD 1,227 0.16%
Bitcoin 6,438 0.01%
EUR/USD 1.1486 -0.11%

Equities are broadly lower after the opening bell on Wall Street, with the selloff in China and the rise in US Treasury yields setting the tone for the day so far. The risk-off shift that dragged even the mighty US stock market lower last week continues to dominate trading globally, and while volatility is well below its recent peak, bulls are on the defensive with regards to the majority of risk assets.

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Shanghai Composite hit yet another 4-year low today, amid rumors on forced liquidations following the hawkish surprise of yesterday’s Fed meeting minutes. The Chinese index confirmed its bear market again, and as the trade war rhetoric of the Trump administration will likely heat up before the midterms in November, selling pressure could remain strong.

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit increasing, nervous trading continues on the related assets, with especially British equities feeling pain lately. The FTSE 100 has been lagging even the relatively weak European markets, and although the benchmark is trading above its spring lows, thanks mostly to the long-term weakness in the Pound, short-term technicals are very weak, and a breakdown below to a new almost 2-year low looks imminent.

Economic numbers have been mixed today, with British Retail Sales missing the consensus estimate by a mile, while the US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in slightly better than expected. The negative surprise added to the pressure on British stocks, although forex markets are little changed and the Pound remained relatively stable.

US Stocks Lower Again amid Choppy Consolidation

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major US indices opened lower and extended their losses in the first hour of trading, with the S&P 500 still trading in a clear short-term downtrend following last week’s plunge. Treasury Yields, particularly on the short-end of the curve are aback near their multi-year highs after yesterday’s Fed surprise, and that weighs heavily on investors sentiment.

Philip Morris (PM) is up by more than 3% following its earnings report, as the company continued the quarter’s trend of positive surprises, but the broader market is still largely ignoring the bullish news, as US investors are focusing more on the mounting funding risks and the strengthening international headwinds.

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While currencies are relatively calm today, commodities are having an active session, and crude oil and copper are both headed lower amid the fresh risk-off shift, while old is flat thanks to safe-haven flows. WTI crude hit another one-month low today after yesterday’s breakdown, falling below $69 per barrel and copper is also in a precarious technical position.

The volatility compression pattern looks to be ending in the industrial metal, as we expected, given the weakness in China, it’s no surprise that the commodity moved below its short-term range. A drop below the strong support near $2.70 could mean that copper resumed the broad downtrend, and that would be a bearish sign concerning the global economy.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 379 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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