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Market Overview

Asian Market Update – Monday: Cryptocurrencies in muted trading; Asian stocks mixed on US tax reform

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Shanghai morning

Litecoin and ethereum in consolidation, bitcoin continues to rally.

Recent price gains in the main cryptocurrencies appears to have slowed down Monday morning, after an astonishing run last week. As of midday in Asia, the price of bitcoin was slightly up, while ethereum and litecoin prices were in the red.

Bitcoin picked up 0.4 percent to about $11,335 at midday, offsetting a loss of more than $700 in US trading Sunday evening, when it fell sharply from about $11,780 to about $11,070, before surging back yet again.

Overall, bitcoin’s strong uptrend since November 13 is still intact, adding more than a 100 percent to its price since then.

Ethereum was 0.28 percent off at $463 at midday. The coin dropped more than $20 in early morning trading before surging back. Ethereum has seen some choppy trading in the past a few days since reaching an all-time high of about $508 on November 29.

Litecoin was down 0.29 percent to $100.91 at midday in Asia, slightly down from an all-time high of about $105. The coin has been quite steady around the $100 line since Saturday.

Main Market Movers – Mid-day Asian Trading Session

Indexes Value at Midday Daily Change
Japan- Nikkei 225 22,774 -0.20%
China-Shanghai Composite Index 3,313 -0.12%
Hong Kong –Hang Seng 29,227 0.53%
South Korea-KOSPI 2,483 0.32%
Australia-ASX 200 5,985 -0.07%
S&P 500 E-Mini Futures 2,660 0.65%

Major Asian equities markets were muted on Monday morning, while broader indexes showed larger gains in responding to the passage of a tax reform bill in the US Senate, that significantly improved prospects of a tax overhaul in the US.

The S&P 500 E-Mini Futures climbed 0.65 percent as of midday Monday to 2,660.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index posted a gain of 0.53 percent on Monday morning, after seeing its biggest weekly drop in a year last week. At market close on Friday, the benchmark fell 2.7 percent for the week, the largest loss since December 2016.

In South Korea, the Kospi edged up 0.32 percent to around 2,483 shortly after midday.

However, stocks saw minor losses in Japan, the Chinese mainland and Australia.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 Index was down 0.2 percent to 22,774.

On the Chinese mainland, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.12 percent to 3,313.

Down under, the ASX 200 was off 0.07 percent to 5,985 at midday.

Currencies

The Japanese yen lost 0.51 percent against the US dollar at midday Monday, changing hands at 112.73 per dollar.

The Chinese yuan was flat against the US dollar at 6.6130 per dollar.

The Australian dollar lost 0.18 percent on the dollar, changing hands at 1.3148 per dollar at midday.

Commodities

WTI Oil was down 0.51 percent to $57.97 per barrel.

Brent Crude lost 0.33 percent to $63.40 per barrel.

Gold was 0.36 percent lower to $1,274 an ounce.

News across Asia

In China, artificial intelligence, the digital economy, and the internet of things have taken center stage at the World Internet Conference in Wuzhen, just outside Shanghai, which is attended by global tech leaders, including Apple’s Tim Cook and Alibaba’s Jack Ma.

Take away: At the annual event, the Chinese government stressed market openness to foreign firms, but also received strong criticism for restricting access to foreign websites in the country.

In Australia, officials said on Monday that they would investigate US tech firms Facebook and Google for allegedly disrupting traditional news media. The probe would focus on the business models of these companies to understand their influence in Australia.

Take away: This is bad news for the US tech giants, which have been facing strict scrutiny in the US, Europe and now in Australia for their increasingly dominant position in information distribution.

Featured image from Pixabay.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term trading.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.3 stars on average, based on 37 rated postsFredrik Vold is an entrepreneur, financial writer, and technical analysis enthusiast. He has been working and traveling in Asia for several years, and is currently based out of Beijing, China. He closely follows stocks, forex and cryptocurrencies, and is always looking for the next great alternative investment opportunity.




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Analysis

Pre-Market Analysis And Chartbook: Risk Assets Under Pressure as Fed Minutes Loom

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Wednesday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,789 -0.98%
DAX 30 11,715 -0.52%
WTI Crude Oil 69.79 -3.27%
GOLD 1,229 0.13%
Bitcoin 6,429 -0.49%
EUR/USD 1.1528 -0.38%

While yesterday we saw a huge oversold rally in equities, with the help of positive corporate earnings, the easing of the US-Saudi standoff and the stability in Treasury yields, today investor sentiment shifted yet again.

Negative news regarding the US-Chinese trade war, which is very likely to intensify before the US midterms, dismal European car sales, and continued worries with regards to the Italian budget and the Brexit process all acted as bearish catalysts.

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although European markets followed the lead of Wall Street and rallied today in early trading, the major indices are already well below their intraday highs, after turning back from the first levels of resistance. The DAX ran into resistance near the 11,850 level, below the crucial 12,000 level that could be the line-in-the-sand in deciding the long-term outlook going forward.

The German benchmark, the FTSE 100, and the EuroStoxx 50 are all in strong declining trends, and with the most important Asian markets also under strong short-term selling pressure, the US markets have a steeper and steeper mountain to climb should they resume the bull market.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Nasdaq opened slightly below yesterday’s cash close, underperforming the Dow and the S&P 500, and since then sellers have been in control of the market. The Russell 2000 that has been showing the way for the broader market lately is deep in the red as well, and we still think that risk assets are facing a prolonged correction if not an outright bear market.

Treasury yields are stable before today’s most important release, the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, but the dynamics of the quantitative tightening (the shrinking balance sheets of the global central banks) are likely behind the faltering of global risk assets.

VIX Pulls Back as Dollar Attempts Rally

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The US Volatility Index fell significantly amid the bounce in stocks, hitting the key 17 level yesterday after plunging below 20, but the chart of the measure still confirms the regime change that would be consistent with a prolonged bearish period. While the bounce could still continue, forming a more complex pattern, the volatility-conditions could very important to judge the stability of the market.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex markets continue to experience heavy trading, and today the US Dollar is trying to gain back momentum after its recent correction. Although the worse than expected housing data (building permits and housing starts both missed expectations) could have been bearish catalysts today, the Greenback held on to most of its early gains.

Should the reserve currency form a swing low and continue its broader rising trend, emerging markets could be back in the crosshairs, and risk assets would face another problem. All eyes are on the support zone near 1.15 in the EUR/USD pair, as a move below that would be a bullish sign for the USD, and it would warn of a test of the August low near 1.13.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 377 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Market Overview

HODL – No Diggity

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Hi Everyone,

The more I watch this the funnier it gets. Really glad to see it exploding on social media today.

Video: https://youtu.be/Ihd0moB0ehM

Hats off to our amazing marketing and PR teams for continuing to hasten crypto awareness in a fun and friendly way.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Lay Down The FOMC
  • May in Brussels
  • Crypto Stability

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of October 17th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

The US session entered euphoria yesterday as American investors seemed to forget all the friction around the world and buy up stocks like they were going out of style.

However, the rampant enthusiasm has not been shared by Asian or European investors this morning. The rally has now been called into question.

Traders will be looking towards the Fed for guidance today as they release the minutes from their last meeting at 14:00 New York time.

More Brexit

While we await an update from Brussels regarding the Italian budget proposal, on the agenda for today will be Prime Minister Theresa May, who comes to express her proposals for a new exit deal

This evening’s dinner will be attended by Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel, and Donald Tusk, among others. However, although her speech is the highlight of the evening, apparently May will not be staying for dinner.

We should watch for updates starting from 19:00 Brussels. What people really want to see is some sort of new solution for the Irish border. This does seem to be the only sticking point left but like a Chinese finger trap, the harder politicians pull the further we get from a solution.

Tracking the strength of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar has been pretty pointless. Due to the global nature of the Buck, the GBPUSD pair usually reflects Dollar strength more than anything. We can however, get a good picture of the Pound by watching the EURGBP.

As we can see the pair has been in a pretty solid range over the last year and is now near the lows.

Crypto Stability

Fortunately, Tether has come a long way towards recovering its one-to-one status with the USD and is now trading on major exchanges at a small discount of about 4 or 5 cents on the Dollar.

Despite the whipsawing that we’re seeing in virtually all the traditional markets, even including Monday’s Tether wobbles, the crypto market has been extremely stable over the last few weeks.

As we’ve stated before, one of the great attractions of the crypto asset class is that historically it bears little correlation with other markets (this week’s movements being a notable exception), making it a good hedging tool.

Please let me know if you have any questions, comments, or feedback. Let’s have an amazing day ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan | Twitter: @MatiGreenspan | LinkedIn: MatiGreenspan | Facebook:MatiGreenspan

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 133 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Analysis

Stocks Surge on Earnings as Saudi Tensions Ease

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US stocks started the session in positive territory following the positive earnings surprises by Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), and from then on, the floodgates opened and we saw the strongest rally on Wall Street since March. President Trump’s more diplomatic stance towards Saudi Arabia helped the bounce in stocks, together with the stability in Treasury yields, but the most important driver was the huge bearish move of last week in stocks.

The major indices all gained more than 2% amid the furious oversold bounce, with, unsurprisingly, the Nasdaq gaining the most on the day, but last week’s deep correction is still far from being erased, and given the negative market internals, we remain defensive towards equities, even regarding the short-term time-frame.

S&P 500 Index Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

We were expecting a similar move since Thursday when stocks reached deeply oversold short-term momentum readings, and as we noted then, these rallies should be treated as selling opportunities, due to the broad technical weakness in emerging markets, Europe, and now on Wall Street as well.

The S&P 500 all but cleared the oversold short-term readings thanks to today’s surge and the preceding choppy consolidation phase, and now the index is near the levels where we would look for a swing high in the coming week. The Volatility Index (VIX) plunged back below, and its behavior in the coming days will be key in judging the real strength behind today’s move.

Russell 2000, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

In spite of the strong move in small-caps as well, the Russell 2000 continues to look wounded from a technical perspective, and the index is facing very strong resistance levels. According to almost all breadth measures, under-the-hood, things are also ugly, and even if the US bull market has legs, this correction is very unlikely to end with a V-shaped bottom, as a lot of healing would be needed to maintain a sustained rally.

Calm US Session in Currencies Amid Stock Surge

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex markets also saw corrective price action, although the main safe-haven assets, the Japanese Yen and gold gave back only a small portion of their recent gains. The Dollar finished little changed before tomorrow’s key FOMC meeting minutes, while the Pound pulled back after a positive European session.

We expect a larger move in the Greenback in the coming days, and the consolidation in Treasuries could also come to an end, and another leg higher in Yields could be the trigger that ends the oversold bounce in stocks.

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities had a quiet and choppy session, except the still active gold, and although crude oil managed to bounce amid the risk-on shift, copper failed to build on its recent resilience. the industrial metal is still stuck in a bearish consolidation pattern, with all eyes on the $2.75 support and the $2.87 resistance.

The way Chinese assets will react to today’s rally will be crucial for the commodity, as a meaningful bounce could help copper to a new swing high, despite the bearish long-term pressures.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 377 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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