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Analysis of the Silver market

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Silver

I imagine that all silver traders have been aware that the precious metals market has been shamelessly manipulated by thieves in suits for many years/decades. What may be less well-known is that there is a rumor that one of the biggest culprits of them all, JP Morgan, has not only successfully closed out all their shorts, but has been building a long portfolio for some time. If that rumor is true, my guess is that other big trading houses have been doing the same.

I have been looking in on the silver chart from time to time for the past few months waiting to see when/if there appeared to be a long trade on the horizon. And it appears that there now might be.

This is a relatively long-term setup from the low in late 2015. We do not yet have a buy signal, as we do not yet see a close outside the arc pair. But it seems that the 2nd arc of the pair will be met soon. I have a feeling that a close above the arc might signal the beginning of a good long trade. The highlighted area in yellow indicates that longer-term resistance is seen at the $24-26 area.

Lets look at a slightly short-term setup on the same chart:

Here we can see that we are literally one day away from a buy signal on this setup, if we get a close at or above today’s high. I have put an arrow on the chart showing where that $25 resistance on the longer-term chart is seen on this setup. Here it is at the 3rd arc pair.

Seen below, the ‘0 line’ of an Andrews Pitchfork intersects the 3rd arc at just under $24 early in July. As a result, we can safely surmise that there will be strong resistance in that area, if indeed a rally gets started in this market in the near future.

If it should be that we get a close above this level, then the fireworks will likely begin for real. This market has been perverted for so very long that if it ever gets a chance to go where it wants to go, a new ATH will almost certainly be in the cards. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s see if we get a buy signal on the chart, and if so, let’s position ourselves to ride a wave to $24…

Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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  1. gullyfoyle

    March 28, 2017 at 7:03 pm

    Silver has looked bottomy for a while now since the end of last year IMO, I can see $25-26 around the beginning of 2018 using Ichimoku and fibs.

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Analysis

Stocks Go Nowhere Ahead of the Fed

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Global stock markets had a very quiet Tuesday, as traders took a step back before tomorrow much-awaited Fed rate decision. While most of the major indices finished the day virtually unchanged, risk assets gained ground in general, as investors sentiment improved following the slightly nervous Monday session.

DAX 30 Index Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

European and Asian stocks were steadily holding on to last week’s gains, with even the Chinese market settling down with only slight losses, despite the country’s exit from the scheduled trade talks with the US.

On Wall Street, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 outperformed the Dow and the S&P 500, signaling a risk-on shift under-the-hood, even as the major indices traded in very narrow ranges in the low-volume low-volatility environment.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currencies had a much more active season, even as the major pairs didn’t experience real trending moves, before the central bank meeting. The EUR/USD pair, which has been in the center of attention for days finished with small gains after some sudden spikes in both directions, as traders tried to bet on tomorrow’s renewed guidance by the Fed.

In economic news, the US CB Consumer Confidence Index came in above expected at 138.2, a 17-year high, just shy of the all-time high set in 2000, right at the time of the peak of the Dot-Com bubble. On the other hand, the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index missed the already modest consensus estimate, with an only 5.9% yearly price increase, once again confirming the slowdown in the segment in the rising yield environment.

XHB (Homebuilder ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shares in the sector are down by 20% on average compared to the January bull market high, and as Treasury yields in the US are still hitting multi-year or even decade-long highs across the yield curve, further pain could be ahead for bulls in the coming months.

That said, a dovish surprise tomorrow could set up a pullback in yields and a possible bounce in the sector, even as the general tightening trend will almost certainly persist for a while.

Rate Hike Near Certainty with All Eyes on the Fed’s Guidance

The odds of the third hike this year by the Fed are almost 100% for tomorrow, but even major changes, and sizeable surprises are possible, with regards to the economic guidance and the Central Bank’s preferred monetary as well.

2-Year US Treasury Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The US-China trade war could serve as a dovish excuse, despite its limited effects so far, while the US economy provided plenty of ammunition to hawks, such as strong growth, an uptick in some of the key inflation measures, and a tight labor market.

While the 2-Year Treasury yield failed to close at a new cycle high, the short-end of the curve is at a decade-long high, so a bigger surprise could lead to a very volatile afternoon session tomorrow.

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities also had a mostly quiet and mixed session with WTI Crude oil slightly retreating off its 10-week high near $73 per barrel and gold holding on near the $1205 level, but copper experiencing more volatility and closing with muted losses after Chinese markets reopened.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 353 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Ripple: One Thing That Doesn’t Make Sense

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If you are bored or just tired of reading about Washington politics, just come over to the crypto world.  But be warned, the headlines can be just as singularly focused and confusing as anything inside the beltway.  Like Ripple for example, it has had everybody talking for the last week. The coming week is likely to be no different. All eyes will be on XRP.

Ripple, of course, is the crypto force that offers its payment networks as settlement infrastructure technology to a growing number of major financial institutions such as UBS, Santander and UniCredit.

Using Ripple, banks can bypass the antiquated SWIFT system. This cuts transfer of international payments to a few seconds from something like three days.  That could save banks billions in fees.

Ripple’s XRP token has had it share of critics, some of which is reflected in XRP being one of the worst performing cryptos this year falling from $3.65 in March to $0.26 on September 13th.

Sudden About Face

Since then, everything has been uphill.  It started a few days ago when CNBC hosted Ripple’s Sagar Sarbhai.  The interview touted high speed xRapid as ready for commercial launch.  Sagar also presented a laundry list of 120 banks that were on board with its xCurrent software.

That interview lit a spark that resulted in a double in the price of XRP and grabbed the attention of just about everyone in the crypto community. Strong technical buy signals were flashing.  In addition announcing that two new banking clients (NCB of Saudi Arabia and PNC) had joined RippleNet, all other fingers were pointing to Sagar’s xRapid announcement.

Following all this comes the headline in Business Cloud website: RIPPLE CRYPTOCURRENCY TO HIT KEY $1 THRESHOLD, PREDICTS CEO Nigel Green, founder of deVere Group, the world’s largest independent financial advisory organization. If that weren’t bold enough, Green’s $1 prediction is for year-end.

Upcoming SWELL Conference Prompts Even More Speculation

There seems to be some real substance behind Sarbhai’s CNBC interview. On October 1-2, Ripple is hosting the SWELL event in San Francisco, CA. The event is meant to connect the world’s leading experts in policy, payments and technology for a proactive dialogue in global payments today.

The event will be packed with political literati including former President Clinton. It is easy to conclude that Ripple is geared up for a major news event. Speculation is that xRapid will be announced and given a date for launch.  When you consider that a keynote address from Bill Clinton could cost Ripple well over $100,000 why would they waste his star power on simple chit chat.

Looking Good

It is fair to say that recent news and the prospects for a potential bombshell announcement next put Ripple in as good a position as it has been in some time.  Who would ever sell XRP at this point? The Wall Street Journal reports that Jed McCaleb, one of the co-founders of both Ripple and Stellar, “has recently stepped up sales of billions of XRP tokens he is thought to own”.  Back in 2013 he owned 9 billion XRP tokens.

OK, so every once in awhile, every crypto entrepreneur needs to pay the rent, but this is more than chump change. To keep things in balance, McCaleb has not worked with Ripple for about five years and, under his lockup agreement, he is entitled to sell up to 750 million XRP annually once year five is passed.  That should be enough dough to pay just about anybody’s rent. Lately, however, the desire to get out of XRP has pushed beyond the lockup agreement.

Why Would Anyone Sell XRP?

With all the good news ahead and the long term outlook for Ripple never looking brighter, who wouldn’t want to own XRP?  This is even more curious given the depressed nature of the XRP price.

Everyone who owns an asset has the right to making independent decisions and there may be special things in McCaleb’s plan that factor into his urgency to sell.  However, there is a section in Investment Analysis 101 that says to ask lots of questions when founders and large inside owners are sellers.

One thing is obvious. After a thoroughly frustrating 2018, there are more reasons to own XRP than to be selling.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 107 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bearish Trend Intact Despite Explosive Rally Attempts

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The negative trend in the cryptocurrency segment continues to be dominant, with almost all of the top coins trading below the structural support levels that were broken during the summer months. Bitcoin is still above the $5850 level, the last base support before last winter’s explosive speculative event, but Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and the other main altcoins all continued relentlessly lower.

Most of the majors formed a bottom in August, even though Ethereum continued to lead the way lower amid the bleak sentiment and capital flight. Several oversold rally attempts already failed in the segment, leaving the long-term declining trends intact, with last week Ripple providing hope for bulls with its explosive move higher.

While some of the coins tried to follow Ripple higher, the development of a healthy leadership failed yet again, add our trend model continues to be overwhelmingly bearish from a long-term perspective. With that in mind, the short-term buy signals should still be treated cautiously by traders. The August lows are not in direct danger right now, and a more durable bottom might already be in, but a broader rally would be needed to confirm a trend change.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

While BTC has been holding on relatively well during the summer months, in the past weeks, as the largest coin was hurt by selling related to large wallets. The coin failed to show bullish momentum despite its stability, and a break below the key long-term support zone near $5850 is still possible here.

Primary support is at $6275, and in the case of a breakdown below $5850, the next major support zone is found near $5000, while resistance is ahead at $7000, between $7200 and $7300, and in the $7650-$7800.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

After spiking below $180 and forming a panic-bottom, Ethereum rallied up to $260, but due to the extent of the preceding decline, it didn’t reach the declining trendlines which dominated the market for several months. The coin has been leading the selloff in the segment, and now a re-test of the lows is once again likely, even if a more durable bottom is already in.

Short-term support is found at $200 and $180, while below the recent low, further zones are found near $160 and $130, with resistance zones ahead between $275 and$280, near $300, and in the $330-$335 zone.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 353 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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