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Analysis: Dash, Ethereum, Iconico, Litecoin, Augur, Bitcoin, Monero, Stellar Lumens, Ripple, Zcash

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DASH

Dash has had a great couple days, but is no within sight of a 3rd arc pair at ~$150.  Likely will correct soon.

Ethereum Classic

ETC has also had a great few days.  A 5th arc pair is nearby at ~ $14.  It may be late to chase this one also.

Ethereum

ETH, like the preceding coins, has had a great few days, but is now within eyesight of a 5th arc pair at ~$180.  It seems a bit late to chase this one also.

Iconico

ICNETH rallied as soon as it exited the 2nd arc pair. I tweeted this breakout at the time.  It looks like it has some more upside to go.  Might be a good trade opportunity still.

Litecoin

LTC found support at a Gann angle.  I tweeted this support at the time.  Targets are 3rd arc pair at $37, and then the 5th arc pair, $57, if the 3rd arc pair falls.

Augur

REP has been a sleeper that went vertical the other day.  It is poised to rally back to the 5th arc pair at ~ $40.  Might be a good trade opportunity.

Bitcoin

XBT just keeps on rolling past every resistance in it’s way.  It corrects where it should, but the corrections are always short and shallow.  After adjusting my scale, the next serious resistance seems to be at a 5th arc pair at ~$2500.  Pretty round number…

Stellar Lumens

XLM has gotten through the arc that stopped its advance a few days ago. A rally to ~ .075 seems likely.  This might be a good trade opportunity.

Monero

XMR has done well the past few days.  It is facing a 4th arc pair which will likely cause it to correct.  But the 5th arc pair is a better target at ~ $70.  This might be a good trade opportunity.

Ripple

XRP broke free of the arc that had held her for a few days.  I tweeted the breakout.  But though the rally that followed was sweet, the correction seems deeper than I expected.  I’m not sure I’m comfortable with being long here. If you are long watch this carefully.

Zcash

ZEC corrected hard following its dramatic rise. This might be a good trade opportunity.  The 5th arc pair is way up by $350.

 

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 1 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. leveler

    May 24, 2017 at 8:07 am

    So Which coin is the best for short term investment between Augur and Stellar Lumens?

    • chorez

      May 24, 2017 at 7:58 pm

      Augur is kind of low volume at the moment and stellar actually fell back into the resistant zone. I think monero will have the major spike today. in 3 hours there is a major announcement coming https://twitter.com/fluffyponyza/status/867362460797480961

      • leveler

        May 25, 2017 at 1:31 am

        Monero have a major announcement?
        I bought Monero. How do you think about Monero?
        Is this bounce up or not? 🙂

        • chorez

          May 25, 2017 at 1:58 am

          Announcement was already made. It was a scam pretty much. https://twitter.com/fluffyponyza/status/867514780617236480 . He wanted to wake up all hype driven investor. Thats why there ware the huge dip at 7 PM (new york time )

          • leveler

            May 25, 2017 at 2:08 am

            So how do you think about Monero?
            Monero will be recovered their price? 🙁
            Never bounce up again? I need stop loss?

        • chorez

          May 25, 2017 at 2:17 am

          I don’t know. My trade was news driven… I lost some, but could sell early and then shorted. I think it could take a long while to recover. I’d cut my losses. Sorry

  2. birmas

    May 24, 2017 at 8:57 am

    Is there an article here that details what the arc pairs are all about? I can’t find it in the tutorials area.

  3. Ralazo

    May 24, 2017 at 9:14 am

    Jim. Thanks for your analysis.
    I hope you can be more active on Twitter with proper buy or sell signals.

    Thanks!

  4. kamelsf

    May 24, 2017 at 10:37 am

    Hi, I’m new in here (I’m a newby ), I really like your blog, thank you to share some tips with us, this is a great blog.
    The arc you drawing in your analysis charts to make your predictions, is it the Fibonacci Arcs method ? I just like to know the name of this method to try to learn by myself 🙂
    Thanks again 🙂

  5. Noor Sale

    May 24, 2017 at 11:02 am

    best signals I have ever seen
    Iwish you show time

  6. miguelangmoli

    May 24, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    hello comments on ETC? It seems it’s trading at 24$ in Korea, but on bitfinex it seems is returning back to $14. Please advise.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 24, 2017 at 10:55 pm

      If it were me, I would just trade on one of the big exchanges and not be messing around with a small regional exchange, unless it was to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities. (Sell at $24, buy at $14 at the same time.)

  7. Jeremi Fisher

    May 24, 2017 at 5:02 pm

    I been buying/mining Monero for a while. I still see Monero getting to a $2 billion+ cap. Thoughts?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 24, 2017 at 10:51 pm

      All I can say is “wow”. We have passed a tipping point, haven’t we?

  8. Ershad

    May 24, 2017 at 11:36 pm

    Hi Jim,

    I made a mistake and bought XRP at 0.34, do you think that the price is going to fall even further and I should sale to cut my losses or is there another spike coming ?

    Thanks Jim
    Ershad

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 24, 2017 at 11:40 pm

      imho, buying at .34 was not a mistake. It feels bad at the moment, but 3 weeks from now (again, imho) you will be bragging to your friends that you bought at .34. I am buying at these prices still. We will see…

  9. leveler

    May 25, 2017 at 1:45 am

    Hi Jim,
    How do you think about Monero after Announcement?
    Almost people told XMR is dead.
    I need your advice.
    Thanks!

  10. miguelangmoli

    May 25, 2017 at 3:01 am

    hi Jim,

    I also did the mistake of having bought news on Monero, and I’m -12.000 USD on Monero, and I don’t know if I should keep it and if it would drop much more, because I thought it was over, but it seems it can still go down.

    Regarding zCash, and Ripple at 0.3$, do you find it a good trade opportunity?

    Regards,
    Mike.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 25, 2017 at 8:49 am

      I like ripple more than Zcash. But opinions differ on this point.

  11. miguelangmoli

    May 25, 2017 at 3:11 am

    Hi Jim,

    Thank you for all your help, I was able to remember your words and try to analyse the situation even on a “desperate” situation, and what I found is that I’m going to do a great trade with Monero. As we can observe, the buy side is really strong while the the sell side is almost clear until 70+, which makes me believe that this is a whole strategy to liquidate margin calls and weak hands.

    https://gyazo.com/32ef04515113c6d0588ee26a007f9912

  12. Ritesh Sheth

    May 25, 2017 at 5:57 am

    should I buy Ripple (XRP) to trade for short time 0.24, I have already brought few for 0.29

  13. amirheavy666

    May 25, 2017 at 7:46 am

    Hi jim what’s happen for market … all of investor zoom in bitcoin ??? now sell all other altcoin or wait ?????

    the market was 91B$ and went 86B$ and after all altcoin had decrease and bitcoin had more increase

    what’s happen? any news?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 25, 2017 at 8:47 am

      Yes, it feels like bitcoin is getting all the money and attention the past few days. But that won’t last much longer. Bitcoin is hyper-extended and ready to fall over.

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Altcoins

Crypto Markets: Bloodied But Not Broken

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As legend has it, prize fighter Jake Lamotta returns to his corner at the end of round four of one of his early boxing matches with blood all over and his face was a mess.  Trying his best, his trainer tells Jake, you’re doing great kid, they haven’t laid a glove on you. To which Lamotta replies, well you better keep an eye on the referee because somebody is beating the crap out of me.

Lately, those of us who have a passion for the world of cryptocurrencies are feeling that somebody is beating the crap out of us. Trouble is, it is hard to figure out why.  Just as we are about to land a punch with the SEC declaring that bitcoin and Ethereum are not securities, ditto that for ICOs that do not convey an equity interest in the issuer, whamo prices drop to 2018 lows.  

The Other Side Of The Coin

We read of the recent hack of a tiny South Korean crypto exchange and pundits blame this for helping to push prices lower.  However, the market seemed to completely ignore this week’s progress in the Mt. Gox litigation. There is actually a decent prospect that investors that held $450 million in bitcoin at 2014 prices will be compensated in nitcoin.  If my arithmetic is working right, this is good news considering the 2014 Blbitcoin price was less than $2.00.

Institutionalizing Crypto

While most eyes last week were fixated on falling prices, exchange giant Coinbase let it be known that it was preparing a crypto custody service.  This may appear as a boring administrative step but that is hardly the case. This move is being heralded as the final step in opening crypto to institutional buyers.

Before Coinbase’s solution the problem has been that, despite the highly secure nature of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the wallets where they are stored are a regular target for hackers.

For investors, making cryptos more accessible to institutional investors is every bit as important as adding retail merchants that accept crypto for goods and services.  

Finding Crypto Support From Unexpected Places

Last Friday various media outlets point out how The U.S. Supreme Court mentioned bitcoin and cryptocurrency while issuing a ruling on a seemingly unrelated case. Here is what the U.S. Supreme Court had to say on June 21st in the case of Wisconsin Central LTD v. United States:

“What we view as money has changed over time. Cowrie shells once were such a medium but no longer are, our currency originally included gold coins and bullion, but, after 1934, gold could not be used as a medium of exchange, perhaps one day employees will be paid in Bitcoin or some other type of cryptocurrency.”

In spite of the current oversupply of naysayers, the legacy of crypto is increasing daily. Now even the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is collecting and publishing prices of bitcoin, bitcoin cash, Ethereum and Litecoin. A year ago at this time, such a notion would have been absurd.    

Suspension Of Efficient Market Thinking

For those who have been kind to follow these ramblings know that I am a big believer in the theory of efficient markets.  The key to this theory is that people have all the available information about a particular investment asset and act upon is rationally.  Of course, this is not to say that everybody reads the information in the same way. That is what makes for buyers and sellers.

Lately, there has been a complete suspension of an efficient market for crypto. All coins and tokens have been dumped without regard for fundamentally positive events, some of which we mentioned above.  Since the vast majority of crypto is owned by individuals, the wisdom of the crowd (or in this case mob) psychology prevails. The last time this was the case it was bitcoin alone that lost some 80% of it’s value starting late in 2013.  But that took more than a year to play out. Since the infamous $19,000+ peak, bitcoin has lost 68% so history is getting close to repeating itself.

It may also be a sign that a bottom in prices may be getting closer. The values are clearly there to be had. Now if only those of us who have a longer term view can find other who share a similar view.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 82 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Plunges Below $6500 as Heavy Selling Resumes

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The cryptocurrency segment is having another very negative day after a calmer period, as selling pressure intensified yet again. All of the major coins turned sharply lower, with the laggards of the recent period, Litecoin, Monero, and Dash confirming their downtrend and the relatively stronger coins also taking a beating.

The total capitalization of the segment dropped below $270 billion, and from a long-term technical standpoint, several currencies are in precarious positions. With no clear news catalyst behind the move, technicals are playing a very important role, and last week’s lows will likely be in focus in the coming days.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is still relatively weak both on the short- and long-term time-frames, and it dropped back to the $6275-$6500 zone that has been acting as primary support during the recent leg lower. Given the importance of the long-term zone between $5850 and $6000, a break below $6275 could set up a crucial test in the coming days. For now, traders still shouldn’t enter new positions, while investors should hold on to their coins as the bullish secular trend is still intact.

No Hiding From the Selloff as Altcoins Broadly Lower

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With the weakest coins leading the way lower again, new swing lows are likely in the majority of the coins, although there is still hope for bulls that a major long-term breakdown can be avoided. Ethereum fell below $500 after touching the declining short-term trendline, and it remains in a bearish trend, even as it’s still in a much better technical position compared to BTC, holding up well above the April lows, and being further away from last week’s swing low as well.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

 That said, we remain negative regarding the short-term outlook for the second largest coin, and traders shouldn’t enter new positions here.  Above the $500 level, strong resistance is ahead between $555 and $575, while primary support is found at $450, with further zones near $400 and $480.

BNB/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

There are no real hiding places for crypto investors from the current selloff even as Binance Coin is still holding up relatively well, within a clear uptrend and above crucial technical support.  That said, as we warned before, given the broad downtrend in the segment, traders should be cautious with new short-term positions.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 280 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Italy Spooks markets Again as Stocks Remain Under Pressure

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European stocks Led the way lower today despite a bullish start in Asia, as equities gave back their gains when Daimler published a surprising profit warning, which was deeply affected by the recent trade war developments, reigniting fears of a tariff-driven downturn in global trade.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Old Continent got into more trouble later on, when two anti-EU officials were named in Italy, resurrecting fears of a clash between the systematically crucial country and the core of the Eurozone. Italian yields rose in European trading, and although they are still shy of the levels hit during the May scare, the periphery could be in trouble as the ECB pledged to exit the market by the end of the year.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The main European indices were smashed lower during the session, with the DAX hitting a two month low, still being very weak relatively speaking compared to its US peers. US stocks sold off heavily following the opening bell and they failed to recover, unlike two days ago, and the major benchmarks traded well below yesterday’s levels just before the close.

The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 lost some of their recent mojo, pulling back heavily of the all-time highs during the day. All in all, the risk off shift continues to dominate across the board, as we expected and we remain negative on risk assets here, especially regarding emerging markets, even as the Dollar’s rally could be over for a while.

Dollar Pulls back as Pound Surges

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar took a beating as the Philly Fed Index came in much worse than expected, and as the Bank of England sent hawkish signals, pushing the Pound and the Euro higher. The central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5%, but a rate hike this year got much closer, with a key member of the bank voicing inflationary concerns.

The Greenback fell more than what the events would imply, so a larger scale consolidation could have already started in the currency following the recent gains and the marginal new high yesterday. With the EUR/USD pair nearing the 1.1450-1.15 support zone, the USD/CAD hitting 1.33 and the AUD/USD touching 0.7350, a meaningful counter-trend move would be timely in the surging reserve currency.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold continued to drift lower before the Dollar’s reversal and it hit $1262 for the first time since lat December before bouncing back above the $1270 level in late trading. Crude oil also fell sharply in early trading, and the WTI contract traded with a $64 handle before rallying back to $66 per barrel.

The OPEC meeting, which is expected to result in a supply increase by the cartel made the crucial commodity very volatile in recent days, but we expect the bearish trend to continue, with a likely dip to the $60 level in the coming weeks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 280 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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