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Analysis: Dash, Ethereum, Iconico, Litecoin, Augur, Bitcoin, Monero, Stellar Lumens, Ripple, Zcash

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DASH

Dash has had a great couple days, but is no within sight of a 3rd arc pair at ~$150.  Likely will correct soon.

Ethereum Classic

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ETC has also had a great few days.  A 5th arc pair is nearby at ~ $14.  It may be late to chase this one also.

Ethereum

ETH, like the preceding coins, has had a great few days, but is now within eyesight of a 5th arc pair at ~$180.  It seems a bit late to chase this one also.

Iconico

ICNETH rallied as soon as it exited the 2nd arc pair. I tweeted this breakout at the time.  It looks like it has some more upside to go.  Might be a good trade opportunity still.

Litecoin

LTC found support at a Gann angle.  I tweeted this support at the time.  Targets are 3rd arc pair at $37, and then the 5th arc pair, $57, if the 3rd arc pair falls.

Augur

REP has been a sleeper that went vertical the other day.  It is poised to rally back to the 5th arc pair at ~ $40.  Might be a good trade opportunity.

Bitcoin

XBT just keeps on rolling past every resistance in it’s way.  It corrects where it should, but the corrections are always short and shallow.  After adjusting my scale, the next serious resistance seems to be at a 5th arc pair at ~$2500.  Pretty round number…

Stellar Lumens

XLM has gotten through the arc that stopped its advance a few days ago. A rally to ~ .075 seems likely.  This might be a good trade opportunity.

Monero

XMR has done well the past few days.  It is facing a 4th arc pair which will likely cause it to correct.  But the 5th arc pair is a better target at ~ $70.  This might be a good trade opportunity.

Ripple

XRP broke free of the arc that had held her for a few days.  I tweeted the breakout.  But though the rally that followed was sweet, the correction seems deeper than I expected.  I’m not sure I’m comfortable with being long here. If you are long watch this carefully.

Zcash

ZEC corrected hard following its dramatic rise. This might be a good trade opportunity.  The 5th arc pair is way up by $350.

 

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 1 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. leveler

    May 24, 2017 at 8:07 am

    So Which coin is the best for short term investment between Augur and Stellar Lumens?

    • chorez

      May 24, 2017 at 7:58 pm

      Augur is kind of low volume at the moment and stellar actually fell back into the resistant zone. I think monero will have the major spike today. in 3 hours there is a major announcement coming https://twitter.com/fluffyponyza/status/867362460797480961

      • leveler

        May 25, 2017 at 1:31 am

        Monero have a major announcement?
        I bought Monero. How do you think about Monero?
        Is this bounce up or not? 🙂

        • chorez

          May 25, 2017 at 1:58 am

          Announcement was already made. It was a scam pretty much. https://twitter.com/fluffyponyza/status/867514780617236480 . He wanted to wake up all hype driven investor. Thats why there ware the huge dip at 7 PM (new york time )

          • leveler

            May 25, 2017 at 2:08 am

            So how do you think about Monero?
            Monero will be recovered their price? 🙁
            Never bounce up again? I need stop loss?

        • chorez

          May 25, 2017 at 2:17 am

          I don’t know. My trade was news driven… I lost some, but could sell early and then shorted. I think it could take a long while to recover. I’d cut my losses. Sorry

  2. birmas

    May 24, 2017 at 8:57 am

    Is there an article here that details what the arc pairs are all about? I can’t find it in the tutorials area.

  3. Ralazo

    May 24, 2017 at 9:14 am

    Jim. Thanks for your analysis.
    I hope you can be more active on Twitter with proper buy or sell signals.

    Thanks!

  4. kamelsf

    May 24, 2017 at 10:37 am

    Hi, I’m new in here (I’m a newby ), I really like your blog, thank you to share some tips with us, this is a great blog.
    The arc you drawing in your analysis charts to make your predictions, is it the Fibonacci Arcs method ? I just like to know the name of this method to try to learn by myself 🙂
    Thanks again 🙂

  5. Noor Sale

    May 24, 2017 at 11:02 am

    best signals I have ever seen
    Iwish you show time

  6. miguelangmoli

    May 24, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    hello comments on ETC? It seems it’s trading at 24$ in Korea, but on bitfinex it seems is returning back to $14. Please advise.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 24, 2017 at 10:55 pm

      If it were me, I would just trade on one of the big exchanges and not be messing around with a small regional exchange, unless it was to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities. (Sell at $24, buy at $14 at the same time.)

  7. Jeremi Fisher

    May 24, 2017 at 5:02 pm

    I been buying/mining Monero for a while. I still see Monero getting to a $2 billion+ cap. Thoughts?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 24, 2017 at 10:51 pm

      All I can say is “wow”. We have passed a tipping point, haven’t we?

  8. Ershad

    May 24, 2017 at 11:36 pm

    Hi Jim,

    I made a mistake and bought XRP at 0.34, do you think that the price is going to fall even further and I should sale to cut my losses or is there another spike coming ?

    Thanks Jim
    Ershad

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 24, 2017 at 11:40 pm

      imho, buying at .34 was not a mistake. It feels bad at the moment, but 3 weeks from now (again, imho) you will be bragging to your friends that you bought at .34. I am buying at these prices still. We will see…

  9. leveler

    May 25, 2017 at 1:45 am

    Hi Jim,
    How do you think about Monero after Announcement?
    Almost people told XMR is dead.
    I need your advice.
    Thanks!

  10. miguelangmoli

    May 25, 2017 at 3:01 am

    hi Jim,

    I also did the mistake of having bought news on Monero, and I’m -12.000 USD on Monero, and I don’t know if I should keep it and if it would drop much more, because I thought it was over, but it seems it can still go down.

    Regarding zCash, and Ripple at 0.3$, do you find it a good trade opportunity?

    Regards,
    Mike.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 25, 2017 at 8:49 am

      I like ripple more than Zcash. But opinions differ on this point.

  11. miguelangmoli

    May 25, 2017 at 3:11 am

    Hi Jim,

    Thank you for all your help, I was able to remember your words and try to analyse the situation even on a “desperate” situation, and what I found is that I’m going to do a great trade with Monero. As we can observe, the buy side is really strong while the the sell side is almost clear until 70+, which makes me believe that this is a whole strategy to liquidate margin calls and weak hands.

    https://gyazo.com/32ef04515113c6d0588ee26a007f9912

  12. Ritesh Sheth

    May 25, 2017 at 5:57 am

    should I buy Ripple (XRP) to trade for short time 0.24, I have already brought few for 0.29

  13. amirheavy666

    May 25, 2017 at 7:46 am

    Hi jim what’s happen for market … all of investor zoom in bitcoin ??? now sell all other altcoin or wait ?????

    the market was 91B$ and went 86B$ and after all altcoin had decrease and bitcoin had more increase

    what’s happen? any news?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 25, 2017 at 8:47 am

      Yes, it feels like bitcoin is getting all the money and attention the past few days. But that won’t last much longer. Bitcoin is hyper-extended and ready to fall over.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: The Usual Post-Fed Pump and Dump…

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2700 -0.51%
DAX 12,470 -0.14%
WTI Crude Oil 61.28 -0.83%
GOLD 1325.00 -0.43%
Bitcoin 10480 -8.71%
EUR/USD 1.2336 0.61%

The script that we laid out for the FOMC meeting minutes has worked almost perfectly, with the major US indices completing a roundtrip that triggered most of the “weak” stop-losses, before a powerful move lower into the close.

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The predictable late-session intraday volatility aside, markets were quiet and choppy for most of the day, and the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500, all closed just slightly lower, while covering 2% during the session, with the tech-index’s relative strength evaporating in late trading.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Forex Markets and Commodities

What drove the decline in equities was the renewed rise in US Treasury Yields, and to answer the most important question of the day; yes, in fact, the yield-Dollar correlation of the past few months broke down, and today the Greenback rallied together with bond yields.

10-Year Treasury Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While that is how it should work according to common sense and economic theory, the recent inverse correlation helped a lot of trends in reaching extremes, and those extremes now might reverse.

The outperformance of US markets, the Euro strength, and the weakness in European equities were among those trends, and it’s interesting to see that the bullish technical setup in the EUR/USD is crumbling and the US indices are in the deepest correction since the Brexit.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While there is no assurance that these changes are permanent, for now, we remain short-term bearish on US equities, and continue to look for upside in the battered Dollar.

At the end of the day, the Dollar finished higher against all of the major fiat currencies, although the Yen showed notable relative strength amid the stock rampage near the closing bell. Interestingly the USD vs. risk-on pairs trend continues to lead the other asset classes, as we have noted several times, and that could be something to monitor in the coming days and weeks.

Commodities had a mixed but ultimately bearish session, with oil and gold suffering both suffering losses amid the risk-off shift, although crude already traded lower before the FOMC release, while gold traded in close correlation with the Euro throughout the day.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment had a decisively bearish session, with only a few coins showing considerable relative strength amid the sell-off. Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dash, and Monero are still the leaders of this cycle, while Ethereum is the most notable laggard, pulling most altcoins lower as well.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a positive note, the majors held up relatively well amid the stock turmoil, but the next few days will be crucial, as important support levels could be tested. That said, most of the coins are well clear of the crash lows, and there is more than enough support below that, combined with the still present bullish signs should keep investors confident that a new uptrend is underway and new rally highs are ahead.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Altcoins Lead Markets Lower as Bitcoin Still Looks Strong

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All of the largest digital currencies are in the red today, following heavy overnight selling, a bounce in European trading, and another round of losses around the US market open. Ethereum is still in the worst short-term shape among the giants of the segment, and that’s in line with the slightly delayed cycle of the coin that we have been monitoring.

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The technical divergence between the leaders of the market and the laggards yesterday is still dominant with the 6 coins that spearhead the rally, BTC, LTC, NEO, Dash, Monero, and ETC, are still in much more bullish setups than the rest of the majors.

Bitcoin is also well below its recent rally highs after breaking down under the key $11,300 level, and a test of the $10,000 support now looks likely, while a move to the $9000-$9200 zone would still keep the rising trend intact.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The overbought short-term momentum readings are being cleared, and despite the slightly bearish volume patterns, we expect the coin to continue its new bullish cycle after the correction, with targets above $11,300 ahead at $13,000 and $14,250.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is now trading below the key $845 level as the correction continues, as we expected, and the coin remains stuck in the dominant declining trend, for now. We still expect a breakout in the coming weeks, but a test of the $740 level is possible before another rally. Further support below that is at $625 and $575 and we don’t expect a new low in the coin, so investors could still accumulate the coin near the main levels.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: All Eyes on the FED and the Dollar (Again)

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FED-Days usually bring very special sessions with a choppy illiquid environment before the “big announcement”, an almost usual stop hunting spike in both directions right after the release, and a rather random, but strong trend in the close that usually defines trading for the next days.

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For this reason, a lot of traders like to take the day off until the FED-decision, and only trade after the event. Why are we talking about this today? Because although there is no interest rate decision this month, the meeting minutes of last month will be published this evening, and what moves the market in this period is rate expectations, not actual decisions.

And by the market, we mean basically all traditional asset classes, and through the rising trend in yields and the consequences of that, rate expectations arguably affect the cryptocurrency segment as well. So what do we expect from the FED? Nothing. We will leave that to the rest of the players, and trade upon the reaction of the market; after all that is what counts. At the end of the day, central banks will try to prop up the market, we can take that for granted.

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S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The overnight session in stock futures was in line with the above-mentioned expectations for a quasi-Fed day, with no clear trend in Asia or Europe, and very choppy price action across the board. Yesterday’s late-session decline is still weighing on investors sentiment, but there are clearly positive signs as well, even as we remain bearish for the coming weeks.

The key levels to watch are still the same, the 2735 and 2700 levels in the S&P 500 (25350 and 24800 in the Dow), and the Nasdaq could remain crucial to keep the hopes of bulls up, should it retain its relative strength.

Dollar-Yield Correlation Switch?

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currency traders might have noticed a subtle shift between US Treasury Yields and the Dollar since the Volatility-Armageddon (actually a bit later than that). In the “old regime” the rise in yields was through the changes in rate-expectations was actually hurting the value of the Dollar, while lately, that negative correlation disappeared and even reversed briefly.

Why is that so important? Because the previous correlation helped the rally in US equities as yields rose, while the new regime could mean that European and Asian stocks will finally gather relative strength, should yields continue to rise. Tonight we might get closer to the solution of this puzzle, as the reaction to the FED-minutes will show how correlations are shaping up now.

Currencies and commodities are also little changed today, although the Dollar continued to edge higher overnight, while enduring a small sell-off as we approached the US open, despite the largely negative European PMI indices.

So watch the Dollar, the Nasdaq, and most of all Treasury Yields today in late trading, and expect choppy conditions until the very end of the US session.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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