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Analysis

Analysis: Dash, Ethereum, Iconico, Litecoin, Augur, Bitcoin, Monero, Stellar Lumens, Ripple, Zcash

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DASH

Dash has had a great couple days, but is no within sight of a 3rd arc pair at ~$150.  Likely will correct soon.

Ethereum Classic

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ETC has also had a great few days.  A 5th arc pair is nearby at ~ $14.  It may be late to chase this one also.

Ethereum

ETH, like the preceding coins, has had a great few days, but is now within eyesight of a 5th arc pair at ~$180.  It seems a bit late to chase this one also.

Iconico

ICNETH rallied as soon as it exited the 2nd arc pair. I tweeted this breakout at the time.  It looks like it has some more upside to go.  Might be a good trade opportunity still.

Litecoin

LTC found support at a Gann angle.  I tweeted this support at the time.  Targets are 3rd arc pair at $37, and then the 5th arc pair, $57, if the 3rd arc pair falls.

Augur

REP has been a sleeper that went vertical the other day.  It is poised to rally back to the 5th arc pair at ~ $40.  Might be a good trade opportunity.

Bitcoin

XBT just keeps on rolling past every resistance in it’s way.  It corrects where it should, but the corrections are always short and shallow.  After adjusting my scale, the next serious resistance seems to be at a 5th arc pair at ~$2500.  Pretty round number…

Stellar Lumens

XLM has gotten through the arc that stopped its advance a few days ago. A rally to ~ .075 seems likely.  This might be a good trade opportunity.

Monero

XMR has done well the past few days.  It is facing a 4th arc pair which will likely cause it to correct.  But the 5th arc pair is a better target at ~ $70.  This might be a good trade opportunity.

Ripple

XRP broke free of the arc that had held her for a few days.  I tweeted the breakout.  But though the rally that followed was sweet, the correction seems deeper than I expected.  I’m not sure I’m comfortable with being long here. If you are long watch this carefully.

Zcash

ZEC corrected hard following its dramatic rise. This might be a good trade opportunity.  The 5th arc pair is way up by $350.

 

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. leveler

    May 24, 2017 at 8:07 am

    So Which coin is the best for short term investment between Augur and Stellar Lumens?

    • chorez

      May 24, 2017 at 7:58 pm

      Augur is kind of low volume at the moment and stellar actually fell back into the resistant zone. I think monero will have the major spike today. in 3 hours there is a major announcement coming https://twitter.com/fluffyponyza/status/867362460797480961

      • leveler

        May 25, 2017 at 1:31 am

        Monero have a major announcement?
        I bought Monero. How do you think about Monero?
        Is this bounce up or not? 🙂

        • chorez

          May 25, 2017 at 1:58 am

          Announcement was already made. It was a scam pretty much. https://twitter.com/fluffyponyza/status/867514780617236480 . He wanted to wake up all hype driven investor. Thats why there ware the huge dip at 7 PM (new york time )

          • leveler

            May 25, 2017 at 2:08 am

            So how do you think about Monero?
            Monero will be recovered their price? 🙁
            Never bounce up again? I need stop loss?

        • chorez

          May 25, 2017 at 2:17 am

          I don’t know. My trade was news driven… I lost some, but could sell early and then shorted. I think it could take a long while to recover. I’d cut my losses. Sorry

  2. birmas

    May 24, 2017 at 8:57 am

    Is there an article here that details what the arc pairs are all about? I can’t find it in the tutorials area.

  3. Ralazo

    May 24, 2017 at 9:14 am

    Jim. Thanks for your analysis.
    I hope you can be more active on Twitter with proper buy or sell signals.

    Thanks!

  4. kamelsf

    May 24, 2017 at 10:37 am

    Hi, I’m new in here (I’m a newby ), I really like your blog, thank you to share some tips with us, this is a great blog.
    The arc you drawing in your analysis charts to make your predictions, is it the Fibonacci Arcs method ? I just like to know the name of this method to try to learn by myself 🙂
    Thanks again 🙂

  5. Noor Sale

    May 24, 2017 at 11:02 am

    best signals I have ever seen
    Iwish you show time

  6. miguelangmoli

    May 24, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    hello comments on ETC? It seems it’s trading at 24$ in Korea, but on bitfinex it seems is returning back to $14. Please advise.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 24, 2017 at 10:55 pm

      If it were me, I would just trade on one of the big exchanges and not be messing around with a small regional exchange, unless it was to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities. (Sell at $24, buy at $14 at the same time.)

  7. Jeremi Fisher

    May 24, 2017 at 5:02 pm

    I been buying/mining Monero for a while. I still see Monero getting to a $2 billion+ cap. Thoughts?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 24, 2017 at 10:51 pm

      All I can say is “wow”. We have passed a tipping point, haven’t we?

  8. Ershad

    May 24, 2017 at 11:36 pm

    Hi Jim,

    I made a mistake and bought XRP at 0.34, do you think that the price is going to fall even further and I should sale to cut my losses or is there another spike coming ?

    Thanks Jim
    Ershad

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 24, 2017 at 11:40 pm

      imho, buying at .34 was not a mistake. It feels bad at the moment, but 3 weeks from now (again, imho) you will be bragging to your friends that you bought at .34. I am buying at these prices still. We will see…

  9. leveler

    May 25, 2017 at 1:45 am

    Hi Jim,
    How do you think about Monero after Announcement?
    Almost people told XMR is dead.
    I need your advice.
    Thanks!

  10. miguelangmoli

    May 25, 2017 at 3:01 am

    hi Jim,

    I also did the mistake of having bought news on Monero, and I’m -12.000 USD on Monero, and I don’t know if I should keep it and if it would drop much more, because I thought it was over, but it seems it can still go down.

    Regarding zCash, and Ripple at 0.3$, do you find it a good trade opportunity?

    Regards,
    Mike.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 25, 2017 at 8:49 am

      I like ripple more than Zcash. But opinions differ on this point.

  11. miguelangmoli

    May 25, 2017 at 3:11 am

    Hi Jim,

    Thank you for all your help, I was able to remember your words and try to analyse the situation even on a “desperate” situation, and what I found is that I’m going to do a great trade with Monero. As we can observe, the buy side is really strong while the the sell side is almost clear until 70+, which makes me believe that this is a whole strategy to liquidate margin calls and weak hands.

    https://gyazo.com/32ef04515113c6d0588ee26a007f9912

  12. Ritesh Sheth

    May 25, 2017 at 5:57 am

    should I buy Ripple (XRP) to trade for short time 0.24, I have already brought few for 0.29

  13. amirheavy666

    May 25, 2017 at 7:46 am

    Hi jim what’s happen for market … all of investor zoom in bitcoin ??? now sell all other altcoin or wait ?????

    the market was 91B$ and went 86B$ and after all altcoin had decrease and bitcoin had more increase

    what’s happen? any news?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 25, 2017 at 8:47 am

      Yes, it feels like bitcoin is getting all the money and attention the past few days. But that won’t last much longer. Bitcoin is hyper-extended and ready to fall over.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Rally Continues amid Fed Chair Confusion

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Tuesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2554 -0.09%
DAX 12995 -0.07%
WTI Crude Oil 51.53 -0.66%
GOLD 1287.00 -1.22%
Bitcoin 5652 -0.86%
EUR/USD 1.1751 -0.38%

Yesterday’s trends are mostly continued in financial markets, such as the low-volatility levitation in stocks and the slightly more active trading in currencies with the apparent Dollar strength. The Great British Pound continued to be under pressure amid the amplified Brexit-related worries, but most of the other majors also lost ground to the Greenback.

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The Dollar rally has been fueled by the rise in the odds of some of the hawkish Fed Chair candidates, while overall, the “race” for the positions looks more chaotic than ever. Interestingly, the long-end of the yield curve is refusing to follow the short-term moves, and without the effects of the Fed’s QE program, the yield curve would probably be inverted by now, signaling strong recession risks.

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major stock indices are virtually unchanged yet again and even the previously surging Nikkei entered a consolidation, adding to the unusual October lull. Commodities have been quite active thanks to the Dollar’s vigor, with crude oil and gold both turning lower. Oil gave back most of yesterday’s gains as the Iraqi-Kurdish conflict turned out to be less violent than previously feared, and the brief rally fizzled.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins are having a mixed session at best, as yesterday’s rebound wasn’t durable, and most of the coins turned back lower again. That said, despite the recent choppy price action, the total market cap of the segment is close to its all-time high, even as only Bitcoin is trading near its own record price level.

The optimism regarding Ethereum major Byzantium upgrade wasn’t enough to lift the second most valuable coin today, and the price of the ETH token retreated below the key $330 level after touching $350 yesterday after the upgrade’s lock-in. Ripple and NEO have been among the most active majors today, but with opposing performances, as Ripple fell significantly after yesterday’s break-out attempt, while NEO defied gravity and jumped above the $30 level after a corrective period.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The S&P 500 is grinding higher despite the overbought short-term momentum readings, and the benchmark is trading very close to its all-time high. The 2550 level is still in focus, but until volatility remains near record lows, the minuscule moves are unlikely to change the technical setup. While a sudden drop in prices could quickly negate the recent break-out, the consolidation could very well lead to further upside, as bulls remain firmly in control, despite the lofty valuation levels.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
02:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Meeting Minutes
10:30 UK CPI 3.00% 3.00% 2.90%
11:00 GERMANY ZEW Sentiment 17.6 20.3 17
12:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
15:15 US Industrial Production 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
15:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate 76.00% 76.20% 76.10%

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: NEO Jumps as Broad Markets Turns Lower

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As the new waves of regulatory changes keep on hitting the segment, the major cryptocurrencies are mostly lower today. After the major update of Ethereum, and the recent surge in the price of Bitcoin, choppy conditions developed, with no clear short-term trend in most of the coins.

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NEO is the best performing major today, as it surged back to the $30 level after a frustrating period that was dominated by a downward drift.  The coin is now just below the key resistance level, and it could be ready to test the $34 level, with a further target found at $40. The long-term picture still looks positive, with strong support levels at $27 and $25.

NEO/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis

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Ethereum is in a consolidation after the encouraging rally towards the end of last week, while Bitcoin is also correction after its stellar rise. The two largest coins pulled the rest of the majors lower, while Ripple remained very volatile after touching the $0.30 level yesterday, trading below the $0.26 again.

Litecoin, Dash, Monero, and IOTA are all a bit lower today, while Ethereum Classic found some relative strength, although it remains stuck in a declining short-term trend. All in all, the segment is still in a clear uptrend, so let’s see which coins are the most promising regarding the short-term picture.

(more…)

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Volatility Near Record Low 30 Years After Black Monday

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Monday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2555 0.12%
DAX 13003 0.09%
WTI Crude Oil 51.88 0.82%
GOLD 1296.00 -0.61%
Bitcoin 5680 2.95%
EUR/USD 1.1793 -0.25%

Stocks markets in the US are at a standstill near their all-time highs, with the major indices trading in extremely narrow ranges yet again. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is close to its all-time high, in stark contrast to the average October readings, as this month is the most negative for equities regarding seasonality. In fact, this October is the least volatile ever so far, while this week is the 30th anniversary of the most volatile day ever on Wall Street.

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A Riskless Market?

On Black Monday in 1987, the Dow crashed by more than 23% during one session, as widespread bullishness coupled and novel portfolio techniques lead to a massive wave of selling. Although such one-day moves should be prevented by circuit breaking rules in today’s market, the notion that risk is non-existent in the current environment is as dangerous as it was three decades ago.

VIX, Weekly Chart

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Stocks have been very quiet across the globe today, with only the Nikkei continuing its break-out to two-decade highs yet again. In Europe, British assets were the most active, as the Brexit talks seem to be in quite a big trouble, and that pushed the Pound and the Euro lower compared to the Dollar. The Greenback’s rally put pressure on gold as well, and the Japanese Yen also declined, as safe-haven assets were sold in the calm environment.

Nikkei Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Oil has been very active as the Iraqi army took control of Kirkuk defying the Kurdish resistance, the WTI contract rose as much as 2% before retreating below the $52 per barrel level, and as we speculated during the weekend, the spike is unlikely to cause a structural change in energy markets, and we expect the range trading environment to continue in the crucial commodity.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

Today was a big day for the crypto segment thanks to the Byzantium update of the Ethereum network, and although the hard fork went smoothly, the session ended on a slightly negative note. Ethereum pulled back towards the $330 support/resistance level, while Bitcoin remained stuck near the $5700 level after recovering from Sunday’s dip.

Ripple has been the other major mover of the day as the coin first surged higher and hit the $0.30 resistance just to fall back swiftly below the $0.26 level towards the end of the day. Despite the decline, the currency is still in a clear uptrend, but more volatile moves are expected in its price. Among the smaller coins, Stellar Lumens more than doubled in price after the announcement of a deal with IBM, as blockchain adoption continues in full force, pointing out the sound fundamentals behind the boom in the segment

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:30 CHINA CPI 1.6% 1.6% 1.8%
3:30 CHINA PPI 6.9% 6.3% 6.3%
14:30 US Empire Manufacturing Index 30.2 20.3 24.4

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
2:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Meeting Minutes
10:30 UK CPI 3.0% 2.9%
11:00 GERMANY ZEW Sentiment 20.3 17.0
12:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.5% 1.5%
15:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate 0.4% 0.2%
15:15 US Industrial Production 76.2% 76.1%

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