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Analysis

Analysis: Cryptocurrency Rebound Continues as BTC Climbs Above $4500

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Huge moves continue to dominate the crypto segment, as the most valuable coins regained a large chunk of their recent plunge with Bitcoin leading the way higher. The rally cleared the short-term oversold readings of the decline and the dominant currency is now at make-or-break levels, with the $4400 level being the most important support/resistance line from a technical perspective. A deeper correction is still likely given the long-term picture, with the $3800, $3500, and $3150 levels providing strong support, and resistance being ahead at $5000.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO continues to be the most volatile of majors, as it is the most affected by the Chinese ICO ban, and today it is down by double digits once again, being the only large coin sporting a loss. Ethereum is also underperforming Bitcoin in the rebound and the other majors, such as Litecoin, Dash, Monero, NEM, and Ripple are also well below their previous highs, amid the geopolitical tensions, that favor the safe haven of BTC.  The short-term picture is neutral for most of the coins we track, but let’s see the details of the technical outlook.

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Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETH reached up above the $330 resistance level during the bounce and it’s getting close to cleat the short-term oversold readings as well. The coin is less stretched than BTC regarding the long-term picture but more sideways corrective price action is likely before a move towards the all-time high near $400. Further support is found near $300, $285 and $250, while primary resistance is ahead at $380.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

LTC registered one of the strongest rebound among the majors, trading near the 480 level very close to its prior sustained high. The coin is near the upper boundary of its long-term trendline, and it is still overbought from an investment standpoint, but a short-term rally to test or even surpass is possible given the somewhat late break-out. Support is found near $64, $56, and at $51.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash spiked above the $360 resistance during the bounce today in early trading, but it now trades back below that level, and it might be ready to head lower again in the coming days. The long-term picture is clearly overbought, and the coin is still likely to dip below $300 before a sustained move higher, with further support found at $265, and resistance ahead near $400.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP is still trading in a broad consolidation pattern after its break-out from the long-standing downtrend, as it currently stands at the $0.22 resistance after today’s bounce. The declining short-term trendline is now found near $0.24, with further levels ahead at $0.26 and near $0.30. The long-term picture is not as stretched as some of the other majors, and we expect outperformance from the coin in the coming weeks, with support just below $0.20 and near $0.18.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic produced a healthy bounce, after touching the $16 support and it is trading above the $18 level as well. The coin is still in a similar position to Ripple, still not being overbought regarding the long-term picture. We still expect the currency to reach a new high in the coming period, but more volatility expected in the short-term as the broad correction unfolds in the segment.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is trading just below the crucial $125 support/resistance level after rallying off the $100 support. The coin is following the broader market thanks to the elevated correlation in the sector, and we expect more downside following the huge rally of the previous weeks. Below $100 strong support is still found near $72 and around $58.

NEM

NEM/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEM is still trading in a short-term range within a broader consolidation pattern against BTC. The currency is just below the 0.000065 support/resistance level, with further levels at 0.0000575 and at 0.000048, while strong resistance is ahead at 0.00009.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is still the most volatile coin, and it is heavily underperforming the other majors today, falling back to the $20 level after trading near $25 yesterday. The coin remains 60% below its all-time high following the Monday-crash, and it is expected to remain volatile as the market digests the ICO ban. Above $25 strong resistance is ahead at $30 and near $44, while primary support is near $16.

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. sstteevvee33

    September 6, 2017 at 8:07 pm

    Hi Mate – I have been subscribing to your site for a few months and find it invaluable…I would never be able to make the decisions on when and which coins to invest in without it, although I do need to kick the greed and learn when to take a good profit… One thing I rely heavily on is knowing the support & resistance levels and the highlight comments (i.e. overbought, consolidating etc.) Is there any chance you could create a table, maybe on a few days/weekly basis that just has this information on, so it is to hand quickly?

  2. Chris G

    September 6, 2017 at 10:57 pm

    My very first trade was LTC from $29 to $45 on Mate’s recommendation – which happened in under two weeks as I recall. 50% on one trade in under 2-weeks had me pretty blown away. Subsequently I’ve managed to liquidate ~24 hours before the last two major crypto corrections on Mate’s general advice/guidance; I’ve learned a ton. I made the mistake of pulling out on an initial $300 eth position, and a $67 ltc position – primarily spooked by the prospect of deeper correction. The moral of the story for me has been to 1. set reasonable profit targets, 2. stick to those targets, 3. attenuate risk, particularly with 4. sensible stop losses. Watching volatility in ethereum is INCREDIBLY nerve wracking once I place a position.

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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ripple Continues Rampage as Litecoin and Ethereum Enter Correction

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Ripple remained in the center of attention in the segment after breaking out to a new all-time high yesterday, and the coin almost doubled in value, climbing above the $0.80 level. The currency concluded a 6-month long consolidation pattern with the move after being the only major on a long-term buy signal in our trend model.

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XRP gave a short-term sell signal today, while turning neutral regarding the long-term setup. Investors now shouldn’t add to their positions, although further gains are still possible, and reducing holdings somewhat is a good idea here. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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While Bitcoin stagnated, and Bitcoin Cash jumped, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA has been drifting slightly lower, although the recent gains are still mostly intact, and the basic setup in the segment is unchanged.

Litecoin fell below the $300 level after yesterday’s consolidation, and the coin faced strong selling pressure in the latter half of the session. The currency remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum indicators, and although the short-term uptrend is still intact, a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2668 -0.02%
DAX 13125 -0.45%
WTI Crude Oil 56.65 -0.68%
GOLD 1258.00 1.35%
Bitcoin 16,100 -6.32%
EUR/USD 1.1842 0.73%

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.

Cryptocurrencies

As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
11:30 UK Average Earnings 2.5% 2.5% 2.3%
11:30 UK Claimant Count Change 5,900 3,300 6,500
11:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2% 4.35
15:30 US Core CPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.1 mill -3.6 mill -5.6 mill
21:00 US Fed Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.25%
21:00 US FOMC Statement

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Volatility on the Rise Again, as Ripple and Ethereum Hit Targets

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Ripple has been the star of today’s session in the cryptocurrency segment, as the only major coin on a long-term buy signal in our trend model continued yesterday’s break-out, and surged to a new all-time high. The currency cleared the $0.425 level that marked the top in May, and after the more than 6-month long consolidation phase, it promptly neared the $0.50 level.

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While the short-term momentum indicators are now stretched, the coin is still in an encouraging long-term setup, although the best period to buy already passed. The coin could be dragged lower in the case of the expected broad correction in the segment, but we expect XRP to outperform in the coming period, with support levels found at the prior high and below that in the range between $0.30-$0.32.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ethereum has been the other top coin on the rise, as the second largest digital currency surged past the final range projection target of the break-out two weeks ago at $685 in the aftermath of the launch of the BTC futures on Monday. The ETH token is now also on a sell signal on all time-frames, and we advise investors and investors to wait for the next major correction to establish new positions. Support levels are now found at $575, $500, $480, and $400.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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