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Analysis: Cryptocurrencies Edge Higher Without Real Momentum

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Suspicious; that’s probably the best word to describe the rally attempt of the major coins off the China lows this week. The segment definitely stabilized after losing 20% in market cap compared to the all-time highs a couple of weeks back, but last week’s uncertainty is still clearly in the air, and the buying that the most valuable currencies are experiencing is far from being convincing. That said, the most important support levels are holding, with Bitcoin trading well above $4000, and Ethereum also being north of the $300 level, for now.

ETH is still relatively weak compared to its big brother, trading some 30% lower than its all-time high, which it hit back in July near $400. While all eyes are on the $300 level now, the $285 support is more important from a technical standpoint, and break below that would open up the way towards the $235-$250 zone, which is still a likely candidate for a major bottom.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The other majors are little changed, so far today, and although BTC is still relatively strong, the recent market leaders, namely Dash, Monero, and LItecoin, failed to regain their strength and remain in the no man’s land between crucial support and resistance levels. With the overall long-term picture still looking overbought, the odds of another leg lower are high, even as most experts dialed down the fears regarding the new Chinese regulations. NEO is still signaling selling pressure in connection with the country, as it failed to follow to follow the market higher and recover above $25. Let’s see the details of the short-term technicals today.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin’s relative strength persists compared to the other majors, although the short-term movement of the currency is less convincing, and it’s still well below the $4400 resistance despite the recent bounce. The short-term trend remains negative, and the $4000 suport level could get back in the center of attention in the coming days, and we still expect a move below that, with further support levels are found near $3800, $3500 and $3150.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin failed to lead the market higher once again, as it did last week, and it remains inside a correction pattern, with te long0term picture still being clearly overbought. The coin is still above the $64 support/resistance line that held up during the previous legs lower, but we expect the coin to dip below that and probably test the $56 support before the end of the correction.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is trading in line with the broader market, staying well above the key $300 level, but failing to move above the declining short-term trendline and the $360 resistance. The currency is overbought regarding the long-term picture, and a move below $300 is still the most likely scenario for the coming weeks. Support is found at $265 and near $220, and the long-term uptrend is not in any danger right now, but investors should still wait with opening new positions.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP got very close to the upper boundary of the resistance zone around the $0.22 level, and the declining short-term trednline, still showing relative strength in the current bounce. The coin is neutral regarding the long-term picture, and we expect it to outperform the other majors during the correction phase. Support is still found below the $0.20 level, at $0.18 and near $0.16, while resistance is ahead at $0.26 and around the $0.30 level.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic turned lower off the $16 level yet again, as the coin remains among the weakest majors regarding the short-term picture. The coin is back in the prior long-standing trading range after the surge to the all-time high, and although we still expect a move to new highs mid-term, short-term traders should wait with new positions until a new trend is established. Primary resistance is still at $16, with further levels at $18, and at $23, while support is found at $14.50 and around $13.50.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is trading in a very narrow range halfway between the $100 and $125 support/resistance levels, as the coin is still overbought concerning the long-term picture, while being stuck in a short-term downtrend. We still expect a move below $100 in the coming period, with a likely test of the $80 level, and possibly the$72 support as well.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is still trading just above the $22 level, failing to bounce back after the news on the possible Chinese exchange closures. The coin is stuck in a lengthy downtrend since hitting a high above $50, and although the long-term picture is getting oversold, more volatility is expected in the coming weeks. Below $22, strong support is at $16.50 while resistance is ahead near $30 and $40.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA staged a strong rally off it’ slows near $0.48 today, but the declining trend is still clearly intact, and the $0.65 resistance proved too strong for now. The coin has strong support between the $0.45 and $0.48 levels that could provide a base for the next leg higher, but despite the oversold long-term picture a dip towards $0.35 is still in the cards, with the sector being in a broad correction. Investors could add to their positions on the short-term dips, but traders should wait until a new uptrend is established before entering new positions.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 279 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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  1. fermera_dany

    September 13, 2017 at 9:58 am

    Thank you for this article. Was very useful.

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Analysis

Italy Spooks markets Again as Stocks Remain Under Pressure

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European stocks Led the way lower today despite a bullish start in Asia, as equities gave back their gains when Daimler published a surprising profit warning, which was deeply affected by the recent trade war developments, reigniting fears of a tariff-driven downturn in global trade.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Old Continent got into more trouble later on, when two anti-EU officials were named in Italy, resurrecting fears of a clash between the systematically crucial country and the core of the Eurozone. Italian yields rose in European trading, and although they are still shy of the levels hit during the May scare, the periphery could be in trouble as the ECB pledged to exit the market by the end of the year.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The main European indices were smashed lower during the session, with the DAX hitting a two month low, still being very weak relatively speaking compared to its US peers. US stocks sold off heavily following the opening bell and they failed to recover, unlike two days ago, and the major benchmarks traded well below yesterday’s levels just before the close.

The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 lost some of their recent mojo, pulling back heavily of the all-time highs during the day. All in all, the risk off shift continues to dominate across the board, as we expected and we remain negative on risk assets here, especially regarding emerging markets, even as the Dollar’s rally could be over for a while.

Dollar Pulls back as Pound Surges

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar took a beating as the Philly Fed Index came in much worse than expected, and as the Bank of England sent hawkish signals, pushing the Pound and the Euro higher. The central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5%, but a rate hike this year got much closer, with a key member of the bank voicing inflationary concerns.

The Greenback fell more than what the events would imply, so a larger scale consolidation could have already started in the currency following the recent gains and the marginal new high yesterday. With the EUR/USD pair nearing the 1.1450-1.15 support zone, the USD/CAD hitting 1.33 and the AUD/USD touching 0.7350, a meaningful counter-trend move would be timely in the surging reserve currency.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold continued to drift lower before the Dollar’s reversal and it hit $1262 for the first time since lat December before bouncing back above the $1270 level in late trading. Crude oil also fell sharply in early trading, and the WTI contract traded with a $64 handle before rallying back to $66 per barrel.

The OPEC meeting, which is expected to result in a supply increase by the cartel made the crucial commodity very volatile in recent days, but we expect the bearish trend to continue, with a likely dip to the $60 level in the coming weeks.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 279 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Drift Sideways as Trading Activity Plunges

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Liquidity dried up in the cryptocurrency segment in recent days, as trading volumes have been declining progressively, while the major coins got stuck in tight ranges. Only a few coins show signs of activity, and the bearish short-term patterns continue to dominate the market. With a group of currencies, namely Litecoin, Monero, Dash, and Bitcoin itself clearly dragging the segment down, the short-term trend will likely continue, as the previous leaders are now showing strength either.

While all of the top digital currencies are showing some gains today, and the total value of the market edged close to $290 billion, major resistance levels are still towering above. The fact that the effect of the Bithumb hack faded away quickly is a positive here, but until signs of bullish momentum and a clear leadership forming, the short-term outlook remains bearish.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin continues to trade near the $6750 level, edging ever closer to the declining short-term trendline, in a bearish consolidation pattern. Bulls would need a sustained move above $7000 to negate the declining trend, but for now at least a test of last week’s lows is likely with a possible move towards the key long-term zone between $5850 and $6000.  The short-term zone around $6350 level provides support, while further resistance is ahead near $7350.

Ethereum Nears Trendline as ETC Attempts Breakout

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum has been among the strongest coins in the last few days again, and coupled with its long-term relative strength, the second largest coin is still the best candidate to lead a recovery. That said, the coin still faces strong resistance between $555 and $575, and bullish momentum is suspiciously weak. Primary support is found at $500 with further zones near $450 and $400.

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic has been positively diverging compared to the rest of the market, together with Binance Coin, and to a lesser extent Tron ever since its inclusion to Coinbase, and the coin moved above the key $16 resistance yesterday in late trading.

While ETC is slightly overbought from a short-term perspective, a consolidation above $16 and a subsequent move higher could confirm a trend change. For now, the short-term trend signal is only neutral, and traders should remain cautious given the broad downtrend in the segment

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 279 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Treading the Floods: Cryptocurrency Prices Stable Following Bithumb Attack 

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Cryptocurrencies emerged unscathed Wednesday following yet another security breach of a South Korean exchange, as the market continued to favor a corrective rally for bitcoin and the major altcoins.

Crypto Prices Hold Steady

Bitcoin fell by as much as $200 Wednesday on news of a cyber attack targeting South Korea’s Bithumb exchange. However, the coin quickly recovered and now sits just shy of $6,800, according to data provider CoinMarketCap. Prices peaked at $6,821.56 at 12:34 UTC.

Compared with 24 hours ago, bitcoin’s per-coin value was virtually unchanged.

The ten biggest altcoins by market cap exhibited the same pattern, with prices treading water compared with Tuesday afternoon. The total cryptocurrency market was valued above $290 billion, up from an earlier low of around $282 billion.

Bitcoin and the major altcoins have more or less retained their bullish bias, which suggests that a continuation of the upward trend is likely. Since bottoming last week, coins have rebounded $26 billion.

Bithumb Attack: What We Know

Hackers made off with roughly $31 million in stolen cryptocurrency on Wednesday as Bithumb suffered its third cyber breach in 12 months. The attackers reportedly targeted users’ holdings of XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, by running a series of unauthorized access attempts.

Bithumb was unable to prevent the attack despite spending upwards of 10 billion won ($9 million) on security enhancements. This includes complying with new guidelines for financial institutions requiring 5% of company staff be made up of IT specialists. Bithumb has reportedly exceeded that quota by a wide margin.

The Seoul-based exchange confirmed that it had migrated outstanding crypto balances to cold storage and said it will fully refund affected users. Transactions on the exchange remain suspended for now.

Although news of the attack hit the airwaves on Wednesday, some analysts believe the theft occurred several days earlier as part of Bithumb’s data upgrade. However, the exact cause of the breach remains unclear.

Goldman Sachs Weighs Crypto Trading as an Option

U.S. multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs is considering taking a bigger dive into cryptocurrency by launching a full-scale trading operation, according to COO David Solomon.

“We are clearing some futures around bitcoin, talking about doing some other activities there, but it’s going very cautiously,” Solomon said during an interview in China, as reported by CCN. “We’re listening to our clients and trying to help our clients as they’re exploring those things too.”

Currently, the Wall Street investment giant is clearing bitcoin futures contracts. It has also announced plans to introduce a new bitcoin trading operation, which includes using its own money to trade with clients in a variety of contracts linked to bitcoin.

Institutional traders are awaiting the arrival of custodial services dedicated to cryptocurrency before taking the full plunge into digital assets. To that effect, the San Francisco-based  Coinbase exchange is leading the charge by announcing a new line of crypto custodial services to unlock up to $10 billion in institutional capital.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 462 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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