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Analysis

Analysis: Bitcoin, Ripple, Litecoin, Ethereum, ETC, Dash & Monero

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin spiked down towards the first main support zone near $1875, and it’s currently trading above the $2000 level again. I expect more downside, but trading these bounces with small positions could be lucrative. The $2230 level could cap the current bounce.

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Ethereum

ETH’s overnight minimum was around 110, a 40% top to bottom correction. The 100 level and the prior base between 77 and 85 are the obvious levels to watch. The advancing long-term trendline is currently found near 90, providing further strong support.

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Ripple

XRP spiked as low as 0.12 touching the long-term trendline and getting close to its previous line-in-the-sand level near 0.11. As Ripple was already in a deep correction, this might have marked the end of the move (-75% from the top!!) but the prior base near 0.07 is not out of the question.

Litecoin

LTC is in a slightly different technical setup, as it already has been in the process of forming a base between 20 and 24 in recent weeks. This morning it spiked below 20 but it trades above the crucial level again. The 16.5 level is a strong candidate for a final bottom, with the prior base between 12.75 and 14 also providing support.

Dash

Dash only joined the party relatively late, so the speculative gains were less pronounced, I expect the prior base between the 70 and 80 levels to hold, with further support at 60. The 85 level could also be in focus as it roughly coincides with the long-term trendline.

Monero

XMR gave back most of its recent run, but the 25-27 zone should hold the correction with very strong support in that area. The long-term trendline is also found near 25.

Ethereum Classic

ETC found support near 9.5 this morning with after a more than 50% correction. The prior resistance at 9.15 and the top of the base at 7.5 serve as a primary target for the correction. Further support is around 5.30, but I don’t expect ETC to fall anywhere near that.

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10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. leveler

    May 27, 2017 at 3:14 pm

    how do you think about the future of xrp?
    xrp is able to bounce up again?

    • Mate Cser

      May 27, 2017 at 3:26 pm

      Sure it can. It’s not my favorite coin because of it’s background, but I expect several legs up.

  2. eko6321

    May 27, 2017 at 3:20 pm

    Hi

    Is it possible eth down to 77~88 Level support?

    It looks 110 level is best support level, am i wrong?

    Thanks

    • Mate Cser

      May 27, 2017 at 3:29 pm

      Hi, it’s unlikely that it will fall that low, but it’s still possible. Definitely worth a try around 110.

  3. Ershad

    May 27, 2017 at 3:40 pm

    Hi Mate,

    Thanks for your analysis, I wanted to ask besides XRP which other coin do you think would yield the highest returns? I was thinking maybe Zcash or Eth?

    Kind regards
    Ershad

  4. shyam_shankar

    May 28, 2017 at 3:18 pm

    can I know why you are neglecting XRP? even I have read from many sources that XRP is not a crypto at all. I will be much obliged if you provide me some analytical details about it. I would be much happy if you mail me on [email protected]

  5. shyam_shankar

    May 28, 2017 at 3:20 pm

    why are you not trading alts over BTC? all the charts that I have seen only over USDT. can you please provide ETH,ETC,XMR so on/ BTC

    • Mate Cser

      May 29, 2017 at 3:10 am

      Hi, I find the USD charts more reliable, that’s all. But sure, with XRP it makes sense to analyze the Bitcoin pair. Will do, thanks for the input.

  6. JamesSides

    May 30, 2017 at 6:13 am

    I’m a newbie at all this so I think perhaps I misunderstood what you meant when you said Ethereum’s support levels are around 90 long term.

    Does that mean you believe it will drop back down to that at some point?

    I made a mistake and assumed that’s what it meant before unloading 20 Ether for $173 but now that I see it over $200 I’m wondering if I misunderstood?

  7. Mate Cser

    May 30, 2017 at 2:21 pm

    Hi Jamie,

    Thanks for the question! By long-term support I meant that Ethereum would have been highly unlikely to go below that level should the panic selling have continued. It all depends on the time frame of your holding. As a long-term investment, I suggest holding a core position in Ethereum and adding to that if it drops to a significant support levels. It might still fall back to $90, even if we all agree that it will go way higher in future.

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Analysis

Long-Term Analysis of the Silver Market

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Silver

The silver market has once again caught investors’ interest as the price is nearing areas not seen since late 2008.

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2017 started at a low point for silver, and it seems it will end the year that way as well, meaning investors who bought at the beginning of the year haven’t suffered nor gained much.

This doesn’t mean, however, that the price hasn’t moved during the year. After the low start of the year, silver quickly tacked on about 18% to a top of $17.50 per ounce.

In terms of fundamentals in the silver market, things look a bit complicated for 2018. There are multiple forces pulling in different directions for the price of silver going forward:

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Positives

  • A sharp stock market correction can be expected to occur some time in 2018. Most likely, this will happen sooner rather than later. Stock market crashes always trigger a flight to safety, meaning gold, silver, and quite possibly bitcoin, can benefit.
  • We are seeing signs that inflation may be starting to rise again, although this is not confirmed yet. Rising inflation is always good for precious metals.
  • If the US federal budget deficit widens as a result of the new tax reform, the US dollar may suffer as a consequence. Goldman Sachs put out a note to investors in November 2017 saying that the US debt is “on track” to reach an “unsustainable” level in coming years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has also said about the US debt that it is “the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.” Rising debt levels creates uncertainty about the economy, which is generally good for gold and silver.

Negatives

  • Central banks around the world seem committed to raise interest rates in 2018. Rising interest rates are bad for precious metals because it would make it more attractive to put money in the bank.
  • The cryptocurrency bull market is on track to continue, diverting attention and capital away from precious metals as a traditional store of value. However, this one is uncertain, as it may also be considered a positive in the way that the rise of cryptocurrencies brings the inflationary and unsustainable nature of fiat currencies into focus.
  • The US dollar may have hit a bottom in 2017 and trade higher compared to other major fiat currencies going into 2018. A stronger dollar is always bad for precious metals, which are priced in dollars.

Silver chart

When looking at the chart, we can see that silver is back down to were it started the year, which coincides with a major support area where it has turned several times in the past few years.

From a technical perspective, silver has been trading in a triangle pattern on the longer-term weekly chart, with the price now trading very near the lower end of the triangle, adding confluence to our bias that silver will trade up from here.

Silver failed to live up to our prediction from early 2017, and is now even trading well below the level from that time.

A low price by any measure combined with two major technical support levels adds confidence to our trade and makes silver a low risk and potentially high reward trade for 2018.

Depending on your own strategy and investment style, you may want to wait for the price to break out from the current triangle pattern it has been trading in for the past year and a half. You would then give up some of the potential return for an even safer trade. After that, major resistance is found around $17.50 and $18, with lots of upside potential if we can finally break through those levels.

Featured image from Pixabay.

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Look Out Below?

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After last week’s observation that a major top is in or near in the segment, the Bitcoin surge continued for almost a week, with Thursday’s wild session taking the coin as high as $19,000 (the article uses Bitstamp prices) on some exchanges. While the currency already pulled back by more than 20% the long-term picture is still extremely overbought and a much deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks.

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BTC spiked below $13,000 today, violating the primary weak support at $13,300, with further levels now at $11,300, $10,000 and $9000, but stronger support only found at $8200 and $7700. Next week’s futures launch could cause another jump in trading activity, and volatility is expected to remain very high amid the likely correction.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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While not all altcoins participated in the, supposedly, last part of the rally, IOTA, Monero, and towards the end of the week Litecoin, also stretched above all conventional targets with IOTA also turning exponential after a deal with Microsoft. The coin exploded by more than 350% before entering an initial sharp correction, breaking the steepest short-term uptrend. Strong support is only found at $3 and $1.5, but potential Fibonacci support is at $2.35.

IOT/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see how the long-term charts of the other altcoins look after the crazy week.

(more…)

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Stocks Rise on Mixed Jobs Report, Bank gains as Bitcoin Wobbles

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Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2651 0.45%
DAX 13153 0.85%
WTI Crude Oil 57.34 1.12%
GOLD 1250.00 0.21%
Bitcoin 15775 -4.10%
EUR/USD 1.1774 -0.01%

The “Week of Bitcoin” ended on a positive note regarding traditional financial assets, with several bullish catalysts helping the recently struggling indices in Europe and the US. Asia settled down after a period of pronounced weakness, the finalized framework of the new regulation of the European banking sector favored the banks, end the US employment report was mixed enough but not too bad to help equities. While these don’t sound that bullish from a long-term perspective, in the world of central bank dependency, a sluggish growth environment fuels the yield-seeking rally in stocks.

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S&P 500 at All-Time Highs, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Short-term rates declined thanks to the slightly negative economic news, and as Trump’s decision regarding Jerusalem sparked widespread protests in the Middle East, gold and long-dated treasuries rebounded, as a sign of moderate safe-haven flows. The VIX shrugged off the geopolitical fears and stock volatility plunged back near its recent record lows, while the DOW and the S&P 500 finished on new all-time closing highs, even as the intraday highs from Monday are still ahead of the benchmarks.

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Last night’s Brexit deal caused a “sell the news” dip in the Great British Pound even amid the risk-on sentiment, as the currency lost ground compared to its major counterparts, while the rest of the forex complex finished a choppy session close to unchanged on the eventful day.

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

All eyes were still on Bitcoin and the major altcoins as trading activity skyrocketed in the cryptocurrency segment thanks to the exponential rally and the sharp correction in the market of BTC. The coin hit a new all-time high on all exchanges, albeit at widely diverging levels, as several exchanges broke under the weight of the record volumes.

Bitcoin fell as much as $3000, more than 20% top-to-bottom, but as we speak the currency is regaining momentum and we might be in for another interesting weekend in the segment. While it seems very likely that a sharp correction is just around the corner, picking a top in BTC is not an easy feat, even as the momentum indicators are off the charts.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Altcoins benefited from the early sell-off in Bitcoin, and Litecoin even rallied to a fresh all-time high, while the other majors rose significantly as well.  Although the currency and the segment as a whole are stretched by all measures, and the risks of a “fake-out” our high, speculative flows could propel another rally in LTC.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
1:50 JAPAN GDP 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
Tent. CHINA Trade Balance 264 bill 231 bill 254 bill
11:30 UK Manufacturing Production 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
15:30 US Hourly Earnings 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
15:30 US Non Farm Payrolls 228,000 198,000 261,000

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