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Hi Everybody

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Hope you had an awesome weekend. If you’re investing in cryptos you definately did.

The cryptocurrency markets are surging again with Bitcoin leading the way. The shiny digital currency saw a new all time high over the weekend to top $3,344 a coin.

All that new value that materialized with the emergence of Bitcoin Cash has been sucked up by Bitcoin itself as we’ll discover below.

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@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

President Out

OPEC Talks

Another Fork Coming

Please note: All data, figures & graphs below are valid as of August 7th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Failed healthcare, new Russia Sanctions, Tax reform hasn’t even started yet, North Korea sanctions ramping up, Special Investigator on his tail, but where is the President?

On vacation, playing golf, of course.

Trump must’ve mentioned every single time that Obama smacked the little white ball so it’s only fitting that we do the same for him.

The man can afford a break though. The markets are behaving nicely. The Dow Jones has now broken a new all time record for eight straight sessions in a row and the U.S. Dollar is weakening just like he wanted it to.

Sticky Stuff

Members of the OPEC oil price fixing group will be meeting today and tomorrow. Last time they met markets were impressed by their ability to speak about the option to intervene in markets and prop up the price further if needed.

If they were disapointed by the fact that Nigeria and Libya were not discussed, it didn’t show up in the price. The articles preparing for today’s meeting seem almost exactly the same as they did ahead of the last. With many analysts stating that they need to put output caps on the two delinquent countries.

The price of oil is dipping this morning as it did last time. Will the members say something different this time? Will the markets react the same?

Though the fundamentals are strikingly similar the technicals are much different. In the last meeting the price was relatively low. Right now, we’re at a price that could be seen as average.

The blue line in the graph below is the 200 day moving average. The dotted yellow line represents a strong resistance that has been building over the course of this year. Of course, let’s not forget the very round level of $50 a barrel that we are now hovering just below.

A $2 move up would mean a breakout of all three key figures. A $2 move in the other direction would mean that they’re holding strong.

Bitcash Down

All that money that seemingly came out of thin air to pump up the value of Bitcash is now being fed right into Bitcoin.

Bitcash has fallen from its peak of $12 Billion all the way down below $4 Billion this morning.

During the same time, the market cap of Bitcoin was $44 Billion, and it is now up above $53 Billion.

Bitcash sought to replace the original form of digital money but the miners never embraced it. As it was seen by many as something for nothing, many users are now dumping.

This hard fork that came out of nowhere threw a monkey wrench into the bitcoin scaling debate. However, that debate is still playing out and it seems we’re finally reaching a consensus. SegWit is now almost certain to be implemented shortly and miners are showing overwhelming support for the SegWit2x solution.

So, within the next few months, we will likely get another hard fork. This one with overwhelming support from the Bitcoin community.

Let’s have an awesome week ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. embersburnbrightly

    August 7, 2017 at 3:46 pm

    That disparity between US stock values and US dollar values is quite scary, especially since I’m a resident of the US. What happens to the US dollar when an overvalued stock market suddenly crashes? Nothing good for those who use that currency for their nation’s economy.

    “Make America Broke Again.”

    ūüôĀ

  2. fadishop

    August 7, 2017 at 4:39 pm

    About Bitcash. It is an opinion of a market trader, a Bitcoin fascist, who is bought in Bitcoin, does not accept discrepancies and can not see that the Bitcoin transfers do not work and that Bitcash does not have support but it is a solution at the moment. It does not matter how important it is to have a market, to be bought and to find the trend.
      I have been a miner and I understand that they ask for more rewards, the exchanges ask for more commissions but when they make the transfers they ask for $ 4 and they only pay $ 0.5 on the network. Bitcoin continues with the same problems.

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Altcoins

Fears of Regulatory Crackdown Flush $190 Billion Out of Crypto Market

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Bitcoin, Ethereum and every other major cryptocurrency collapsed on Tuesday, as fears of regulatory clampdown in South Korea triggered a mass exodus from the digital asset class. The collapse comes as mainstream media reports continue to push the idea of an imminent ban on cryptocurrency exchanges even as lawmakers cautioned no decision had been reached.

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Cryptocurrency Market in Free Fall

The cryptocurrency market declined rog $190 billion on Tuesday, marking one of the biggest single-day drops on record. At its lowest, the market was valued at $510 billion,  which was than $200 billion below its peak earlier this month.

The top 20 coins were each down in excess of 17%, according to data provider CoinMarketCap. Nearly $49 billion worth of cryptocurrency exchanged hands over the past 24 hours.

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Bitcoin plunged below $12,000, reaching its lowest level since early December. Ethereum, its biggest rival, fell back toward $1,000, while Ripple bottomed out at $1.23 after peaking above $3 just a few weeks ago.

South Korea Jolts Market

It was mainly regulatory issues that jolted cryptocurrencies on Tuesday, with South Korea mulling new legislation to stamp out excessive risk from the market.

South Korea‚Äôs finance minister Kim Dong-yeon reportedly told local radio that an all-out ban on cryptocurrency trading was a ‚Äúlive option, but that government officials still need to ‚Äúseriously review it.‚ÄĚ Seoul‚Äôs biggest issue with cryptocurrency trading is the level of speculation in the market and the role of anonymous accounts in spurring volatility. New regulations have already banned anonymous trading on domestic exchanges and barred foreigners from participating in the market.

Last week, some of South Korea’s busiest crypto exchanges were raided by police and tax agents over alleged tax evasion. The raids were confirmed by an employee at Coinone, who spoke to Reuters anonymously.

Seoul’s financial authorities had previously indicated they were investigating six banks that offer cryptocurrency accounts. In addition to speculative risks, authorities are also concerned about the link between cryptocurrency trading and organized crime.

South Korea is a major center for cryptocurrency and is home to some of the largest exchanges. Local traders have been the main catalysts behind some of the crypto market’s biggest gainers, including Ripple.

Some analysts believe that further regulatory crackdown will be ineffective given the borderless nature of cryptocurrencies. When China banned cryptocurrencies, traders there migrated their accounts offshore to Hong Kong or Korea. This suggests that a regulatory crackdown can only succeed with broad international cooperation, which does not exist at the time.

Chinese regulators know that their measures have done very little to limit virtual capital flight from the country. That’s why they are moving to block domestic access to offshore exchanges, according to a recent Bloomberg report.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Broad Correction Enters Next Phase

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The overbought BTC-led correction that has been the dominating technical process in the cryptocurrency segment in the last month or so continued in earnest today, amid the intensifying regulatory steps concerning the sector. The three-week-long consolidation that followed the initial mini-crash concluded with a sharp sell-off overnight rearranging the long-term charts, while likely kicking off another volatile period.

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While most of the crash lows held up today in early trading in the majors, especially in the case of the late leaders like Ethereum and NEO, some of the relatively weaker coins are already trading below the December minimums. We expect most of the majors to follow Dash and LTC, the weakest of the largest coins, lower and trade below the previous lows, as sentiment will likely swing to a bearish extreme.

The $11,300 level has been in the center of attention throughout the session today and the most valuable coin experienced heavy trading around the level as expected. As the daily MACD is still in neutral territory, the coin could be in for another leg lower, but after the 40% correction and the rather lengthy consolidation, investors could be looking for entry points during the move near the key support levels at $10,000, $9000, and the stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

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BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

As Ethereum is in a different part of its cycle the long-term momentum readings are still overbought, and that could mean a more protracted correction for the second largest coin. That said, following a multi-month consolidation like the one in Ethereum before, we still expect the token to outperform BTC from a long-term technical standpoint. ETH is now below the short-term trendline, and it’s likely to dip below $1000, and the prior top at $850. Further key levels are found at $740, $625, $575, and near $500.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see the outlook for the other major altcoins after today’s bloodbath.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Chinese Crackdown Triggers Next Leg of Correction

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The cryptocurrency segment is crashing again, with double-digit losses across the board, and with several coins shedding around 30% in one day amid the widespread and heavy selling. The sell-off was triggered by reports on a new set of measures by the Chinese authorities limiting crypto trading, which added to the still looming South Korea related regulation worries. Bitcoin tested the mini-crash lows at $11,300 today in early trading, dipping slightly below that level before a strong bounce started.

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The most valuable coin is now between two crucial support/resistance lines, with the other ahead at $13,000, and as the downtrend is entering its more mature phase the $10,000 and $9,200 levels could come in play, with a possible dip to the support zone near $7,650.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Interestingly, the coin is still hovering within the daily range of the crash of December 22nd, and that points to a very active and volatile period ahead near the low at $11,300, as automatic orders will likely get triggered on both sides of the market.

The short-term setup is bearish, and although it’s possible that the primary support level will hold, odds still favor another leg lower, following the exponential run-up at the end of last year that pushed sentiment into bullish extremes.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Altcoins

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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