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After the Collapse: Bitcoin Price Holds Near $6,500 Amid Strong Volumes

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Bitcoin’s price edged higher Thursday, as markets stabilized from one of the worst routs in recent memory.

BTC/USD Update

Bitcoin is currently trading at $6,457 on Bitfinex for a gain of 2.8% on the day. The leading digital currency is little changed compared with 24 hours ago.

Daily turnover in BTC crossed the $5 billion mark late Wednesday and has since fallen back to around $4.8 billion, according to data provider CoinMarketCap. As Hacked previously reported, bitcoin typically requires daily turnover of at least $4 billion to generate a sustained rally – at least, this is the trend we’ve observed during the 2018 bear market.

Bitcoin’s trading range experienced a patch of volatility between 0:700 UTC and 11:10 UTC Thursday, with prices fluctuating between $6,249.07 and $6,549.97, based on CoinMarketCap data. The coin swung through a similar peak and trough roughly 17 hours earlier.

In the meantime, the bitcoin price appears to be recovering from oversold levels, which means further gains could be likely. The closely watched relative strength index (RSI) bottomed at 30 on Wednesday before recovering at 35. Based on this indicator, BTC is still oversold.

The cryptocurrency market is increasingly tilting toward bitcoin, a sign investors are less keen on experimenting with altcoins and tokens during the latest downturn. Bitcoin’s share of the total market cap is a tad below 49%, the highest since December.

After the Selloff

The crypto universe is coming off one of its worst days in recent memory as investors reacted negatively to headlines that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is delaying a ruling on a highly-touted bitcoin ETF. In the case of bitcoin, prices fell through a critical support cluster on Wednesday en route to fresh three-week lows.

With the loss, bitcoin has not only reversed July’s strong recovery, it has entered bear-market territory based on the traditional definition of the term. The next critical line of support is likely $6,000 – a key psychological threshold. Buyers have previously shown a vested interest in protecting this level.

Although piecing together a short-term outlook is difficult following yesterday’s collapse, bitcoin must return to the $7,000 range to shake off bearish headwinds.

The cryptocurrency fell below $6,000 on multiple occasions this year, with the most recent swing low occurring in late June. Over the next four weeks, BTC values would rise more than 20%.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 772 rated postsChief Editor to Hacked.com and Contributor to CCN.com, Sam Bourgi has spent the past nine years focused on economics, markets and cryptocurrencies. His work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Avid crypto watchers and those with a libertarian persuasion can follow him on twitter at @hsbourgi




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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Eyes $4,200 as the Bulls Show Greater Conviction

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Bitcoin’s price returned above $4,000 on Wednesday, looking poised to revisit the December highs and challenge the recent downtrend. Even a decent run north at current levels could signal a trend reversal for the leading digital currency after several months of anguish.

BTC/USD Update

After experiencing a sharp pullback overnight, the bitcoin price rebounded just as quickly Wednesday morning. In the process, it avoided the dreaded ‘bull trap,’ which describes a false breakout from a declining trend line. While it’s still too early to determine whether bitcoin has turned a corner, recent price action suggests buyers are still in play.

The leading digital currency traded as high of $4,066.30 on Bitfinex. It was last seen hovering north of $4,035, having gained 1.1%. The hourly relative strength index (RSI) implies positive momentum after running into overbought territory during the height of the rally earlier in the week.

Trade volumes have moderated in the last 24 hours after reaching their highest levels in about ten months. Nearly $9 billion in BTC changed hands on virtual exchanges on Wednesday, according to CoinMarketCap. That’s significantly higher than the 2019 average.

Has Bitcoin Bottomed? A Closer Look at the Bullish and Bearish Cases

Activity in the derivatives market has picked up in the last 48 hours. In terms of exchange-based volumes, BitMEX processed 16% of total BTC trades. Actual bitcoin volumes are likely much higher than what’s reported on virtual currency exchanges. It is estimated that over-the-counter trading is just as big as the exchange-based markets. As Hacked recently reported, “private bilateral contracts” have also increased in popularity over the past six months as institutional investors continue flocking to crypto.

Hacked predicted the bullish breakout before it happened. See: Crypto Breakout Coming? Volume Indicators Say Yes

Bulls Eye $4,200

The $4,200 price point has become a major inflection point for bitcoin. It not only represents the high from late December, but also the 15-week moving average through early February. A move above $4,200 could pave the way for a sustained rally back toward $5,000 and eventually $5,500. The path forward is paved with obstacles, but it’s the latter price point ($5,500) that could negate the long-term downtrend.

For derivatives traders, $4,200 is important for one other reason: it represents the strike price of a fairly sizable three-month call option by a firm named QCP Capital. Basically, the counterparty to this trade will earn a hefty premium if bitcoin exceeds that level when the contract closes. Although the size of this trade – equivalent to 250 bitcoins – is tiny compared to the broader market, it suggests traders are keeping a close eye on the December high. More on this story: Bitcoin and Derivatives: Why $4,200 is So Critical.

Not everyone is convinced that the latest breakout attempt will amount to anything. According to Alex Sunnarborg, a founding partner of crypto hedge fund Tetras Capital, bitcoin could still be headed for new lows in the near future.

“Calling [the bitcoin bottom] is very difficult,” Sunnarborg told Forbes. “That’s part of the reason I’m really thankful that we’re in the position we are right now.” More from CCN: Crypto Expert Warns Not to Trust the Bitcoin Rally.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 772 rated postsChief Editor to Hacked.com and Contributor to CCN.com, Sam Bourgi has spent the past nine years focused on economics, markets and cryptocurrencies. His work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Avid crypto watchers and those with a libertarian persuasion can follow him on twitter at @hsbourgi




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Touched $4000 as Broad Rally Continues

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Yesterday’s break-out to new short-term highs continued today in the cryptocurrency segment, with Bitcoin’s push towards the $4000 making headlines in the segment. The most valuable coin surged past the $3850 level, dragging most of the majors higher, but Ethereum and most of yesterday’s leaders lagged behind BTC during today’s session.

That said, the short-term trend remains positive in case of the majority of the coins, and even though some of the top currencies are overbought, the counter-trend move could continue. In light of the increased activity, trading volumes, and volatility in the market, the majors might be in for a more sustained bullish, move, and as now only Ripple is showing clear signs of relative weakness, despite today’s rally, the leadership of the short-term move looks healthy.

While the long-term picture is still clearly negative in the segment, until the newly established short-term uptrends remain intact, traders could still play the move, sticking to strict risk management rules and relatively small position sizes.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Bitcoin left behind the initial resistance level near $3850, and quickly rallied up to the strong longer-term zone between $4000 and $4050, it might need to consolidate before another push higher. BTC is slightly overbought from a short-term perspective, and given the significance of the resistance, traders could exit a part of their positions here.

The $4000-$4050 zone stopped the year-end rally (outside of a brief, failed break-out), and a move above it could open up the road towards the $4250 and the crucial $4450 levels. Below $3850, further support is found near $3600 and just above $3450, and our trend model remains on a short-term buy signal and long-term sell signal.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to trade near the $145 resistance level following yesterday’s surge, and bulls are still eyeing a test of the next major resistance zone near $160, which marked the top of the previous counter-trend move in the coin.

While the coin is still overbought form a short-term perspective, given the momentum if its recent move, the rally could continue after a brief consolidation period. The newly-established uptrend is intact in ETH, and traders could enter new positions should the overbought readings got cleared, with support levels found near $130 and $112.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although Ripple continues to be relatively weak compared its major peers, today it spiked to a new 5-week high, riding the market-wide trend and testing a strong declining trendline in the process. The coin triggered a short-term buy signal in our trend model by topping its January swing high, but given its relative weakness, traders should focus on the more bullish coins during the current counter-trend move.

The long-term setup remains negative, and from a broader perspective, odds still favor the test of the key long-term $0.28 and $0.26 levels, with further support levels found near $0.32 and $0.30, and with short-term targets being ahead near $0.3550, and $$0.3750.

EOS Continues to Lead but Litecoin Struggles to Gain Ground

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

LTC continues to trade slightly above last week’s highs but compared to the leaders of the current leg of the rally it remained relatively weak today. With that and the still negative long-term setup in mind, traders should exit a part of their positions here, even as the short-term uptrend is intact and a push towards the next major resistance level near $51 is still possible. Our trend model is still on a buy signal, as a failed break-out is not yet confirmed, with support levels still found near $44, $38, and $34.50.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS remained relatively strong today, spiking above the $3.80 level after leaving behind the $3.50 resistance. Now, the coin is clearly overbought from a short-term perspective, and that led to a downgrade in our trend model as a pullback is now likely.

The short-term trend remains bullish despite the correction risks, and should the coin clear the overbought momentum readings traders could reenter their position following strict risk management rules. Support is now found near $3.50, $3, and $2,80 while strong resistance is ahead near $4.50 and $5.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 467 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Targeted Marketing: How to Sell Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency to the Masses

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According to recent data from data management platform Lotame, advertisers have abandoned their usual broad-stroke marketing efforts in favour of more specific methods.

The ‘parent’ demographic once ranked as the highest possible target an advertiser could aim for – get the parents and you get the entire household. But that’s changed in recent years, and advertisers now aim for ‘advanced demographics’.

Such advanced demographic markers vary wildly, and advertising spending has been re-allocated to reflect newly identified buyer groups.

This has seen advertisers increase their spending by 451% to attract ‘animal lovers’. One advertiser increased its spending 98% to target the hispanic population – the largest racial minority in the U.S. Others boosted their budgets by various amounts in order to snare millennials (32%) and ‘young Gen-X’ (29%)

The Problem with Blockchain and Crypto Marketing?

If advertisers can see the wisdom in laser-targeted marketing, why shouldn’t blockchain marketers take the same route?

In my experience, most current blockchain marketing is stuck on a small scale. The general public is not being marketed to. Instead, PR is mostly directed towards other people already in the space, such as journalists (No, Ms. Xhu, I can’t publish an ad for your new coin).

I went to the discord server of a prominent altcoin recently, and the ‘marketing’ channel was full of coordinated attempts to ride the coat-tails of prominent twitter personalities and their tweets. ‘This tweet’s getting traction…jump on it and promote our coin!’

Marketing efforts are directed at ICO reviewers, YouTube personalities and cryptocurrency news outlets. In other words, marketers are only doing enough to get noticed by people who are already here. Most of this is done with the simple goal of making it successfully out of the ICO stage – like an independent movie producer pulling every dirty trick they can just to get a strong opening.

Can Targeted Marketing Help the Crypto Space?

As things stand, the default sales pitch of Bitcoin and/or cryptocurrency is that it has the potential to bring down the banksters, revolutionize the financial system, and put financial control in the hands of the people.

Maybe I’m not the best salesman, because when I explain it to people they rarely display the kind of enthusiasm described in the field-manual.

My point is not everyone wants to be a revolutionary – or even a libertarian. Rather than market the full terrifying potential of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency to one and all, wouldn’t it be wiser to break it up into chunks and spread it around various advanced demographics?

Advanced Demographics of the Crypto Space?

Well, the animal lovers demo might already be sewn up by Cryptokitties; and it seems like Dentacoin has dentists covered for now.

But what about the demographic difference between the young and old? Rich and poor? Can cryptocurrency serve working class people more than middle class people? We know Bitcoin is adopted by people desperate to avoid taxes, but so too is it used by those who give to charity.

To push the point further, one can imagine immortal enemies Alex Jones and George Soros being equally enthusiastic about cryptocurrency, but for radically different reasons.

I suspect the early battles in the blockchain revolution will be won in the front end of the shop, through careful targeting of the everyday needs of specific individuals. The internet didn’t spread to everyone in equal time – its outreach never exceeded the applicability it held for whatever individual was next in line to use it.

The goal of cryptocurrency marketers must be to find those applications in the real world and magnify them to such an extent that they can’t be ignored.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 147 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

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