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Add to Bitcoin Positions on Panic Selling

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We had recently written about a likely bottom in bitcoin, however, the pullback was shallow and the cryptocurrency is on the verge of a breakdown once again. While it is difficult to pinpoint an exact bottom, we can estimate the process of a bottom formation.

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Key observations

  1. Bitcoin is looking weak and is likely to fall further
  2. The RSI has entered into the oversold territory, which has historically been a good buying opportunity
  3. If the RSI falls below the current levels of 28, it can fall to 25 and 21
  4. We recommend buying bitcoin close to $5,500 to $5,800 levels for the long-term

Markets became frothy in 2017

In 2017, the mood among the various investors, be it stock market or cryptocurrencies was upbeat. Both were on a scintillating run, though the stock market returns paled in comparison to the cryptocurrencies.

Nevertheless, dips proved to be shallow and pullbacks always made new highs. Various analysts projected lofty targets and the media wrote stories about the riches earned by the investors in cryptocurrencies.

This led to a new breed of greedy traders who believed that the stock markets and the cryptocurrencies were never going to correct. This led to reckless investments using borrowed money.

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Markets have entered a risk off phase

Experienced traders know that parabolic rallies are unsustainable. Therefore, in 2018, first, the cryptocurrencies entered into a profit booking phase, which later escalated into a full-blown selling by the traders who were stuck with long positions at higher levels.

Similarly, the stock markets, which started the year on a high note, have corrected sharply in the past week, which points to a shift in investor sentiment from risk on to a risk off mode.

We may see one more leg of panic selling

With cryptocurrencies falling, the news of hacking in Japan, the crackdown on anonymous cryptocurrency trading in South Korea, card companies prohibiting cryptocurrency purchase on credit cards are all news that are likely to create more panic.

In this panic, the weaker hands are likely to sell aggressively fearing a complete loss of capital because the media starts to highlight the bearish views of analysts.

What levels can the panic selling drag Bitcoin to?

In our previous article, we had highlighted how the 200-EMA had acted as a strong support for long-term purchases in 2017. We expected the moving average to hold this time also, however, it failed. Now, we want to look at another possible indicator, which is flashing that a likely bottom is around the corner.

In the past three years, there have been seven instances when the declines pushed the RSI into the oversold territory below 30 levels and on all the occasions Bitcoin either bottomed out on the same day or entered into a bottoming process. These panic selling’s resulted in a low, which was a good time to buy for the long-term.

Bitcoin bottoms coinciding with a low on the RSI

SN Date RSI low
01 September 14, 2017 27.2421
02 July 16, 2017 28.4791
03 August 02, 2016 21.0585
04 January 15, 2016 25.747
05 August 18, 2015 21.1003
06 April 15, 2015 29.1537
07 January 17, 2015 25.0161

How low can prices fall from the current levels?

At the current levels, the RSI has already entered into the oversold territory as it is quoting at 28.0556 levels. In the previous instances, we have seen that if the RSI doesn’t bottom out at 28 levels, it then falls to 25 and thereafter to 21 levels.

If bitcoin doesn’t find support close to the major support level of $7,500, which is also the support line of the descending channel, then the next stop on the downside is $5,511 levels. Also, the slide from $7,500 to $5,500 is likely to be a quick one as the longs liquidate in a state of panic. That is likely to sink the RSI further lower towards the levels which have previously resulted in a bottom.

Therefore, we believe that the long-term investors should invest about 40 percent of their desired allocation in the range of $5,500 to $5800.

Will this start a rally in Bitcoin?

Not necessarily.

After such a sharp fall, we are likely to witness a process of bottom formation, which will result in a few volatile days of trading before the cryptocurrency embarks on the next uptrend.

Therefore, this purchase should be undertaken by the long-term investors only who want to own Bitcoin for a few years.

Traders should stay calm and buy on panic dips

Though we all have heard to buy low and sell high, doing it practically is very difficult because you have to go against the herd.

Buying when the sentiment is negative and when there is fear among the traders is not easy. However, history shows that such panics usually result in a good buying opportunity for the long-term traders who purchase and hold their positions.

Recommendation

Bitcoin is likely to decline to the $5,500 to $5m800 levels in the next few days, if the $7,500 level breaks convincingly. That is likely to be a level that is close to the bottom.

Therefore, long-term traders should buy around 40% of their desired allocation at those levels and hold. We already have about 25% of the desired allocation purchased in the range of $8,600 to $8,900. That brings the total buy to 65%.

We shall update on when to buy the remaining position.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 8 rated postsRakesh Upadhyay is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Consultant for The Summit Group. He has more than a decade of experience as a private trader. His philosophy is to use technical analysis for momentum trading and fundamental analysis for long-term positions. Rakesh likes to keep himself fit by lifting weights and considers himself to be a spiritual person.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. TomBrazil

    February 5, 2018 at 5:40 pm

    Best post so far. Thank you! Good timing.

  2. MinerMatt17

    February 5, 2018 at 5:50 pm

    Yes, indeed, excellent post.

  3. cryptoking787

    February 6, 2018 at 3:39 pm

    Well done. This is why hacked is worth it

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Trade Recommendation: Monero

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The Monero/Dollar (XMR/USD) pair ignited its uptrend on November 22, 2017 when it breached resistance of $150. The breakout attracted momentum traders, and that pushed the price to as high as $477 on December 20. In about a month, the market grew by over 218%. However, the pair was in extreme overbought territory at this level. Breakout traders used this opportunity to take profits.

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Faced with heavy selling pressure, the pair went as low as $151.26 on December 22. As market participants sensed that a higher low was in place, they bought positions, which sparked a rally that saw the the market reach $449.18 on January 15. Unfortunately, $449.18 was a higher low, and bears responded by sending the pair to as low as $150 on February 6. At this point, XMR/USD was back at its breakout price level. It quickly rallied since there was no more sellers.     

Technical analysis shows that the Monero/Dollar pair is creating a bullish higher low setup at $270. Bulls appear to respect this support level as the market has been consolidating around $270 for about a week now. This could be the base that launches XMR/USD to the resistance level of $415.  

The strategy is to buy as close to $270 as possible. Once bulls successfully claim this level, the pair will likely resume its march to our target of $415. The process may take a month.

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Daily Chart of Monero/Dollar on Bitfinex

As of this writing, the Monero/Dollar pair is trading at $276.12 on Bitfinex.

 

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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1 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 5 (1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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4.3 stars on average, based on 67 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Trade Recommendation: Litecoin

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The Litecoin/USD (LTC/USD) pair launched its bull run on December 1, 2017 when it breached resistance of $90. The momentum it carried was so strong that it went as high as $370.78 on December 19. In less than three weeks, the market grew by over 311%. This rapid growth was exploited by those who bought the breakout as they dumped positions.  

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As selling commenced, the pair went as low as $150 on December 22. On the same day, however, it closed at $248.38. The price action created a long wick under the daily candle’s body indicating the presence of buyers. This created momentum, which pushed the market up to $306.85 on January 6, 2018. Unfortunately for buyers at this area, the bears took control of the market, and sent it down to as low as $106.52 on February 6.

Technical analysis show that the Litecoin/Dollar pair broke out of a bullish reversal pattern when it went as high as $216.89 on February 14. The breakout was validated by heavy volume. More importantly, the pair appears to be in the process of creating a higher low at $190.    

The strategy is to buy as close to $190 as possible. Once bulls successfully defend this level, the pair will likely resume its uptrend and reach our target of $360. The process may take less than three months.

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Daily Chart of Litecoin/Dollar on Bitfinex


As of this writing, the Litecoin/Dollar pair is trading at $195.27 on Bitfinex.

 

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
2 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5 (2 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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4.3 stars on average, based on 67 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Trade Recommendation: Zcash/Ethereum

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The Zcash/Ethereum (ZEC/ETH) pair ran out of steam on November 13, 2017 when it generated a lower high of 0.829034. Things went from bad to worse for the market when it broke support of 0.70 on December 9. The price action triggered the bearish head and shoulder pattern that validated the downtrend.

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With a reversal pattern in place, the market created a series of lower highs and lower lows. It eventually bottomed out on February 1, 2018 at 0.32924. In less than two months, the market lost over 60% of its value. While this decline might scare investors, it is actually a good time to buy positions.

Technical analysis show that the Zcash/Ethereum pair has achieved the target of the head and shoulders pattern that was triggered on December 9. It appears that other market participants have also taken notice as they bought positions as soon as the pair hit the target. The renewed momentum carried ZEC/ETH to as high as 0.5859279 on February 10. While the market dipped, it appears to be creating a bullish higher low setup at 0.48.    

The strategy is to buy as close to 0.48 as possible. If bulls successfully defend this new higher low, the pair will likely resume its climb to our target of 0.70. The process may take less than a month.

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Daily Chart of Zcash/Ethereum on Poloniex

As of this writing, the Zcash/Ethereum pair is trading at 0.49862928 on Poloniex.

 

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
1 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 5 (1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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4.3 stars on average, based on 67 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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