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Add to Bitcoin Positions on Panic Selling

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We had recently written about a likely bottom in bitcoin, however, the pullback was shallow and the cryptocurrency is on the verge of a breakdown once again. While it is difficult to pinpoint an exact bottom, we can estimate the process of a bottom formation.

Key observations

  1. Bitcoin is looking weak and is likely to fall further
  2. The RSI has entered into the oversold territory, which has historically been a good buying opportunity
  3. If the RSI falls below the current levels of 28, it can fall to 25 and 21
  4. We recommend buying bitcoin close to $5,500 to $5,800 levels for the long-term

Markets became frothy in 2017

In 2017, the mood among the various investors, be it stock market or cryptocurrencies was upbeat. Both were on a scintillating run, though the stock market returns paled in comparison to the cryptocurrencies.

Nevertheless, dips proved to be shallow and pullbacks always made new highs. Various analysts projected lofty targets and the media wrote stories about the riches earned by the investors in cryptocurrencies.

This led to a new breed of greedy traders who believed that the stock markets and the cryptocurrencies were never going to correct. This led to reckless investments using borrowed money.

Markets have entered a risk off phase

Experienced traders know that parabolic rallies are unsustainable. Therefore, in 2018, first, the cryptocurrencies entered into a profit booking phase, which later escalated into a full-blown selling by the traders who were stuck with long positions at higher levels.

Similarly, the stock markets, which started the year on a high note, have corrected sharply in the past week, which points to a shift in investor sentiment from risk on to a risk off mode.

We may see one more leg of panic selling

With cryptocurrencies falling, the news of hacking in Japan, the crackdown on anonymous cryptocurrency trading in South Korea, card companies prohibiting cryptocurrency purchase on credit cards are all news that are likely to create more panic.

In this panic, the weaker hands are likely to sell aggressively fearing a complete loss of capital because the media starts to highlight the bearish views of analysts.

What levels can the panic selling drag Bitcoin to?

In our previous article, we had highlighted how the 200-EMA had acted as a strong support for long-term purchases in 2017. We expected the moving average to hold this time also, however, it failed. Now, we want to look at another possible indicator, which is flashing that a likely bottom is around the corner.

In the past three years, there have been seven instances when the declines pushed the RSI into the oversold territory below 30 levels and on all the occasions Bitcoin either bottomed out on the same day or entered into a bottoming process. These panic selling’s resulted in a low, which was a good time to buy for the long-term.

Bitcoin bottoms coinciding with a low on the RSI

SN Date RSI low
01 September 14, 2017 27.2421
02 July 16, 2017 28.4791
03 August 02, 2016 21.0585
04 January 15, 2016 25.747
05 August 18, 2015 21.1003
06 April 15, 2015 29.1537
07 January 17, 2015 25.0161

How low can prices fall from the current levels?

At the current levels, the RSI has already entered into the oversold territory as it is quoting at 28.0556 levels. In the previous instances, we have seen that if the RSI doesn’t bottom out at 28 levels, it then falls to 25 and thereafter to 21 levels.

If bitcoin doesn’t find support close to the major support level of $7,500, which is also the support line of the descending channel, then the next stop on the downside is $5,511 levels. Also, the slide from $7,500 to $5,500 is likely to be a quick one as the longs liquidate in a state of panic. That is likely to sink the RSI further lower towards the levels which have previously resulted in a bottom.

Therefore, we believe that the long-term investors should invest about 40 percent of their desired allocation in the range of $5,500 to $5800.

Will this start a rally in Bitcoin?

Not necessarily.

After such a sharp fall, we are likely to witness a process of bottom formation, which will result in a few volatile days of trading before the cryptocurrency embarks on the next uptrend.

Therefore, this purchase should be undertaken by the long-term investors only who want to own Bitcoin for a few years.

Traders should stay calm and buy on panic dips

Though we all have heard to buy low and sell high, doing it practically is very difficult because you have to go against the herd.

Buying when the sentiment is negative and when there is fear among the traders is not easy. However, history shows that such panics usually result in a good buying opportunity for the long-term traders who purchase and hold their positions.

Recommendation

Bitcoin is likely to decline to the $5,500 to $5m800 levels in the next few days, if the $7,500 level breaks convincingly. That is likely to be a level that is close to the bottom.

Therefore, long-term traders should buy around 40% of their desired allocation at those levels and hold. We already have about 25% of the desired allocation purchased in the range of $8,600 to $8,900. That brings the total buy to 65%.

We shall update on when to buy the remaining position.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 9 rated postsRakesh Upadhyay is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Consultant for The Summit Group. He has more than a decade of experience as a private trader. His philosophy is to use technical analysis for momentum trading and fundamental analysis for long-term positions. Rakesh likes to keep himself fit by lifting weights and considers himself to be a spiritual person.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. TomBrazil

    February 5, 2018 at 5:40 pm

    Best post so far. Thank you! Good timing.

  2. MinerMatt17

    February 5, 2018 at 5:50 pm

    Yes, indeed, excellent post.

  3. cryptoking787

    February 6, 2018 at 3:39 pm

    Well done. This is why hacked is worth it

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Trade Recommendation: Litecoin

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The Litecoin/Bitcoin pair (LTC/BTC) dropped to as low as 0.00758498 on September 12, 2018. At that price level, the market was down by almost 70% from the 2018 peak of 0.02499999.

If you’ve been following our trade recommendations, you’d probably know that we like picking altcoin pairs that have suffered heavy losses. That’s because these pairs often have great bottom picking setups. More importantly, the bottom provides the maximum financial opportunity. We’re seeing that shape up in LTC/BTC.

Technical analysis shows that LTC/BTC is carving a bottom at 0.0082 support. While the pair is still trading inside a descending channel, we’re confident that it will break out of the pattern soon. We have a couple of technical reasons to support our view.

First, we can see multiple supports converging at 0.0082. We have the parabolic support, the uptrend support, and then the support of the descending channel. The convergence tells us to expect significantly increased demand at this level.

In addition, LTC/BTC is oversold on the weekly chart. Add the selling relief from oversold conditions to the surge in demand and we might see a breakout real soon. This is something that we’ve already seen in other altcoins such as XRP/BTC and XMR/BTC.

The strategy is to buy as close to 0.0082 support as possible. As long as the market stays above this level, it has the momentum to ascend to our target of 0.0115 first and then 0.014.

The process may take more than a month.

Daily Chart of Litecoin/Bitcoin on Poloniex

As of this writing, the Litecoin/Bitcoin pair is trading at 0.0082053 on Poloniex.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 0.0082 as possible.

Target: 0.0115 first and then 0.014.

Stop: 0.0078

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 252 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Trade Recommendation: EOS

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The EOS/Bitcoin pair (EOS/BTC) took out resistance of 0.000785 on August 28, 2018. This triggered the breakout from the large falling wedge on the daily chart. The price movement attracted breakout traders who helped generate a rally to 0.0009544 on September 1.

At that price level, breakout players and bottom fishers started to lock-in gains. The increased supply in the market drove the pair to as low as 0.000752 on September 17. Those who bought the top of the market would have been forced to cut their losses as the pair went below the breakout. The reality, however, is that this pullback is temporary.

Technical analysis shows that the uptrend of EOS/BTC remains intact. This view comes after we saw the pair respecting the uptrend support. Notice how the market just continues to glide up this level. This tells us that bulls will defend the support even if the market is pulling back.

In addition, we can see the 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving averages preparing to go below the daily candle. This is an encouraging sign. EOS/BTC launched a parabolic run the last time these three moving averages all went below the daily candle. We’re hoping for the same once this consolidation is over.

The strategy is to buy as close to 0.00082 support as possible. As long as the market stays above the uptrend support, it has the momentum to climb to our target of 0.0012466.

The process may take a month.

Daily Chart of EOS/Bitcoin on Binance

As of this writing, the EOS/Bitcoin pair is trading at 0.0008324 on Binance.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 0.00082 as possible.

Target: 0.0012466

Stop: 0.00078

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 252 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Trade Recommendation: NEO/Ethereum

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The NEO/Ethereum (NEO/ETH) pair took out resistance of 0.07 on August 31, 2018. This triggered the breakout from the large falling wedge on the daily chart. The price action attracted breakout players and momentum traders who helped push the pair to as high as 0.099934 on September 12.

Although we missed the breakout rally, we’re confident that we’ll be able to buy the dip. After all, NEO/ETH was already trading at extreme overbought territory. It would be foolish to chase a flying altcoin. We’d rather wait for the pullback and see how the market plans to resume its uptrend. It looks like we’re getting the go signal.

Technical analysis shows that NEO/ETH has just taken out resistance of 0.08. This enabled the pair to break out of the bullish pennant on the daily chart. The breakout looks convincing because of serious volume. On October 18, the market breached the resistance with volume that’s over 180% of its average.

In addition, the 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving averages are all lining up below the candles. This is an uncommon alignment indicating that the uptrend is strong and healthy.

The strategy is to buy the retest of breakout as close to 0.08 as possible. As long as the market stays above this level, it has all the momentum it needs to rally to our target of 0.115. The process may take a month.

Daily Chart of NEO/Ethereum on Binance

As of this writing, the NEO/ETH pair is trading at 0.081214 on Binance.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 0.08 as possible.

Target: 0.115

Stop: 0.076

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 252 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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