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Market Overview

A Crypto U-turn

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A bit of good news to start the day, this from The Economic Times in India…

This is has been a topic that we’ve been watching particularly closely over the past few months as the central bank of India (the RBI) announced a ban on cryptocurrencies on April 6th.

Since then several crypto companies are challenging the prohibition in court and now it’s becoming clear that the RBI may indeed have overstepped its bounds as they are having difficulty explaining their actions.

The Supreme Court is set to hear the case on July 20th and we can expect a lot more information to be made public leading up to the hearing.

With a population of 1.3 billion people and very few cash transactions, India’s decision on how to regulate cryptocurrencies lies at the epicenter of the global debate. Should cryptocurrencies attain legal status it could affect the tipping point for Bitcoin adoption.

Watch this space.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

Aggressive Fed Action

ECB up Today

Tether FUD

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of June 14th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

As expected, the United States Federal Reserve took action to raise the interest rate yesterday from 1.75% to 2%.

What was less expected were comments from the Fed that indicate a more aggressive path going forward and we can probably expect another two rate hikes this year.

Additionally, Fed Head Jerome Powell announced that starting January, he will be giving a press conference after every rate decision, a practice that was currently is only done intermittently. This should help the Fed steer the narrative around their policy and give them more room to maneuver.

The importance of these press conferences can be seen quite clearly on the graphs below. Here we can see the time of the interest rate decision marked with a purple circle. Notice how the prices of the Dow Jones, USD, and Gold all reversed their initial movements during the press conference that was held 30 minutes after the rate decision.

ECB Today

Following the Fed yesterday, the European Central Bank delivered their interest rate decision early this afternoon, which will also be followed by a press conference with Mario Draghi.

The main item on the agenda is the quantitative easing program. The ECB concluded it will not renew the policy and that this could be the end of monetary stimulus in the European Union.

The Euro has slid significantly against the US Dollar in the last few months; with the decision to exit the QE program, several analysts feel that it could recover a lot of this ground.

Tether in the News Again

A year ago, volumes of the stable coin Tether were rather insignificant. Today, they make up 15% to 20% of the total market.

This chart from cryptocompare.com shows the rapid growth in market share of the last six months. Tether is the blue area.

The controversy surrounding Tether was thrown into the spotlight again yesterday by the University of Texas who published a paper called…

The allegations that Tether has been manipulating the price of bitcoin are not new. In fact, the CFTC in the United States is currently investigating this very issue.

The timing of the report, on the other hand, does seem a bit suspicious as Bitcoin is currently testing some key levels of technical support. Good to see that Bitcoin is indeed bouncing off of those lows this morning.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out and what the CFTC ends up finding but ultimately, this shouldn’t affect the long-term path of the cryptocurrency industry.

Let’s have an amazing day ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: http://etoro.tw/Mati

Twitter: https://twitter.com/matigreenspan

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matisyahu/

Telegram: https://t.me/MatiGreenspan

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 122 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Market Overview

Back to Normal

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Hi Everyone,

Here’s a graph for you. It certainly impressed me when I saw it yesterday.

It shows how even though the price has declined since the beginning of the year, eToro clients have not only maintained their positions, but are actually increasing their bitcoin holdings.

The graph was inspired by a recent article in which our CEO and founder Yoni Assia stated that…

After I posted the graph on Twitter, one user was quick to point out that there are many more buyers now and so the increased amount of holdings actually shows that each individual investor is holding less.

While that may be true, it actually serves to strengthen the case that demand is holding strong. If more people want to hold bitcoin, that grows the network, even if they’re holding it with less allocation in their portfolio.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Market Manipulation
  • Dollar Pullback Relief

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of August 21st. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

Whatever you feel about him, President Donald Trump’s garish rhetoric has been great for traders who like volatility. This latest headline is particularly punchy…

Just as China and the United States have started preparing for some fresh rounds of trade talks, President Trump, true to his style, has spiced things up by placing things off kilter in a way that now seems quite normal.

This comes after a report from Trump’s own administration published in April stopped short of making any such labels. In fact, the USA hasn’t officially labelled any country as a currency manipulator since 1994.

Looking back since the start of 2017, if either China or the EU have been trying to deliberately weaken their respective currencies, they haven’t been doing a very good job of it.

Dollar Pullback

Zooming in a bit to the movements of the day…

The US Dollar is finally showing some signs of weakness, which is providing some much-needed relief for the rest of the markets. In fact, it seems like investors are even ready to take on a bit more risk today as the stocks climb and the precious metals have bounced off the lows.

On the left, we can see the US Dollar Index, which seems to have peaked last Wednesday. On the top right is the NASDAQ, which is toying with it’s all-time high and on the bottom right is gold’s retracement off the long-term lows.

Crypto Section

Let’s leave this section deliberately blank for today. We’ve shown the chart about Bitcoin’s stable range too many times to count.

As mentioned, a steady price range is healthy for Bitcoin as it increases it’s use as a stable store of value and gives developers of the network more time to build the infrastructure that will be needed going forward.

Have an amazing day ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan | Twitter: @MatiGreenspan | LinkedIn: MatiGreenspan | Facebook:MatiGreenspan

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 122 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Market Overview

Market Update: U.S. Stocks Rise on China Trade Optimism; Bitcoin Holds Firm as Volatility Plummets

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U.S. stocks advanced Monday, with the S&P 500 inching closer to record highs as investors held onto hopes for an easing of the trade war with China.

Stocks Rise

All of Wall Street’s major indexes recorded gains in early-week trading, with the S&P 500 Index coming within half a percentage point of record highs. The large-cap average eventually settled at 2,857.05, having gained 0.2% from the previous close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 869.37 points, or 0.3%, to close at 25,758.69, its highest since January.

The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.1% to 7,821.01.

Shares tied to primary industries were among the best performers Monday. The S&P 500’s energy index rose 0.6%, while industrials and materials rose at least 0.7%.

A measure of implied volatility known as the CBOE VIX edged slightly lower on Monday to reach its lowest level in ten days. The so-called “fear index” fell 1.4% to 12.46 on a scale of 1-100 where 20 represents the historic average.

Path of Least Resistance

Wall Street’s path of least resistance is higher following news that the U.S. and China are looking to rekindle trade negotiations later this month. As Hacked reported Friday, Washington and Beijing are plotting a road map for resolving their lingering trade dispute.

Markets are striking a more optimistic tone in the wake of yet another solid earnings quarter. Low trade volumes are also expected to keep the upward momentum on track heading into next month’s Labor Day weekend.

In terms of upcoming events, the Federal Reserve on Tuesday will publish the transcript of its most recent policy meeting, where officials voted to keep interest rates on hold. Later this week, global finance leaders will arrive in Wyoming for the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.

Bitcoin Holds Firm

The bitcoin price continued to trade in a narrow range on Monday, though the technical charts showed greater potential for upside. The leading digital currency traded at $6,452 on Bitfinex after hitting a high of $6,524. At current values, bitcoin owns 52.2% of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

In other news, USDT has moved into eighth spot on the market cap rankings after Tether, its issuing company, printed $415 million worth of the stablecoin this month. USDT now has a market capitalization of $2.7 billion, leapfrogging Cardano’s ADA coin.

The cryptocurrency market’s combined value on Monday was $214.2 billion, little changed compared with 24 hours ago. Trade volumes hovered above $11.2 billion, which was consistent with Sunday levels.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 554 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Market Overview

Brand New Crypto Economy

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Hi Everybody,

It’s not the first time that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is restructuring the Venezuelan economy but it might be the most significant update so far.

With the economic crisis in Venezuela reaching levels that some are calling a humanitarian disaster, and inflation projected to reach 1,000,000% by the end of the year, President Nicolas Maduro is now turning to crypto to try and stabilize the situation.

This announcement might not be getting enough attention in the mainstream media but it certainly is turning a few heads in the crypto space.

Because the Venezuelan national cryptocurrency known as the Petro is pegged to the price of oil, the government’s hope is that it will provide a backstop to the new version of their currency, the Sovereign Bolivar.

The old Bolivar was a bit of a mess because it carried an official exchange rate of 10 Bolivar’s to the Dollar, whereas the actual rate on the street was more like six to eight million Bolivars to the Dollar.

Several reports have indicated that the new structure represents a massive devaluation of the Bolivar. However, those headlines might be misleading.

As each Petro is supposed to be pegged to a barrel of oil, one Petro should be worth about $60, so the new minimum wage of half a Petro a month is about 3000 times the current minimum wage, which is about $1 per month.

The main problem with this plan is that we still have no way of verifying that each Petro represents one barrel of oil. Should the Venezuelan Government wish to provide this level of transparency, it would be rather simple using the Ethereum blockchain. But alas, Maduro chose to use the less transparent NEM network for the Petro and therefore we have no choice but to hang on his two words that were prevalent in his Friday night announcement…

“Trust Me”

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Don’t Skip This Part
  • Fed Meeting Incoming
  • Brand new Crypto

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of August 20th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets (Don’t Skip this Part)

Sure, most of you are probably reading these daily market updates strictly for the crypto part. However, it is my strict belief that it is impossible to understand the economics of cryptocurrencies without understanding the traditional markets that provide the backdrop.

For example, last week we saw some rather unusual drama surrounding Turkey, which did seem to spill over into other markets, including cryptocurrencies.

In this graph below we can see the Turkish Lira (red) starting to slide on August 9th. If was soon followed by the Dow Jones (Green), which opened with a gap down on Friday the 10th. Then you can see Ethereum (purple) plunging on Saturday and gold (yellow) marking new lows by Wednesday the 15th.

Now, normally a crisis in Turkey shouldn’t have much of an effect on any of these other markets. However, due to the severity of the slide and the sudden nature, it seems that it did catch many traders off-guard.

However, we can see that on Friday the 17th, the Lira took another sudden dive, this time the other markets were more prepared and therefore unaffected.

This morning, the stocks seem to be doing well and yet crypto-assets are struggling, and emerging market currencies still haven’t taken much of a direction. This as the US Dollar has begun the week on a stronger foot ahead of an important Fed meeting that will take place on Thursday and Friday.

Brand New Crypto

eToro is pleased to announce that we’ve added our 12th digital asset to the number one social investment app.

You can now find IOTA among the 2000+ markets that you can easily add to your eToro investment account. (This is not investment advice)

As always, let me know if you have any questions, feedback, or further insight. I’m always happy to hear it.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan | Twitter: @MatiGreenspan | LinkedIn: MatiGreenspan | Facebook:MatiGreenspan

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 122 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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