5 Things to Watch Next Week | Hacked: Hacking Finance
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5 Things to Watch Next Week

Posted on .

5 Things to Watch Next Week

Introduction

This article was posted on Sunday, 15:34, UTC.
Asset Current Value Weekly Change
S&P 500 2414 1.35%
DAX 12591 -0.38%
WTI Crude Oil 49.87 -1.25%
GOLD 1268.00 1.13%
Bitcoin 2210 7.43%
EUR/USD 1.1179 -0.26%

 

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1.            Will the Crypto-Crash last?

It’s been a long weekend for cryptocurrency traders, and for the first time in a while, the dominant trend was bearish. The major coins experienced several snapback rallies in the nervous, sometimes borderline panicky, environment. This morning’s healthy bounce could mean that we have seen the worst of the decline, but volatility is expected to remain elevated, with the next couple of sessions being crucial to the market. As the improving fundamentals and the lofty gains attracted more and more investors, and directed media attention to Bitcoin et al., the question is how new buyers will support the fragile market.

2.           More New Highs Ahead for Two Faced US Market?

The major US indices recovered with a 7-day winning streak after the mini sell-off that pushed global stocks lower. European and Asian indices are lagging US equities, as the British election suddenly turned questionable, while the Manchester terror attack also weighed on sentiment. The surprise Chinese downgrade sparked a battle between sellers and the “Invisible Hand” of the Chinese leadership, as the negative announcement was followed by a pretty obvious intervention by the PBC. As fewer and fewer stocks participate in the US rally, a deeper correction is more and more likely, although the short-term momentum is still bullish.

3.           What’s Next for Oil After the OPEC Meeting?

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The OPEC meeting ended with the expected 9-month extension of the cartel’s production cut, and although there are signs that the crude oil market is slowly healing, the crucial commodity spiked lower after the announcement. Saudi Arabia also plans to curb imports to the US to limit global supply, as the country’s budget is severely hurt by the declining revenues. The long-term effects of the moves are questionable, as the rapidly improving cost-effectiveness of the US shale industry is actually being helped by them, and the “shale-cap” on prices is expected to fall even lower from the current $60 level.

4.           Job’s Friday In Focus Before the Fed’s Next Meeting

US rate hike odds declined significantly last week despite the recovery in stocks, and the better than expected GDP growth number. The May employment report will be the last crucial release before the central bank’s next meeting, and although the consensus still points to a tightening move in June, the further schedule of the Fed is uncertain. A negative surprise could put pressure on the Dollar once again, especially Trump’s position remains vulnerable.

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5.           Gold at Make or Break Levels

Gold showed relative strength in the last couple of weeks, and it remained near its one-month highs, despite the rebound in US stocks, and the general stability in risk assets. The metal is trading between important support and resistance levels at $1260 and $1275 respectively. While the long-term trend looks to be finally turning higher, a decline below $1240 could lead to a test of the $1200 level.

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases of the Week

Day Country Release Actual Expected Previous
Monday EUROZONE Eurogroup Meeting
Tuesday EUROZONE Manufacturing PMI 57 56.5 56.7
Tuesday EUROZONE Services PMI 56.2 56.5 56.4
Tuesday GERMANY IFO Business Climate 114.6 113.1 112.9
Tuesday CANADA Wholesale Sales 0.90% 1.10% -0.20%
Tuesday US New Home Sales 569,000 611,000 621,000
Wednesday EUROZONE ECB Prsident Draghi Speaks
Wednesday CANADA BOC Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
Wednesday CANADA BOC Statement
Wednesday US Existing Home Sales 5.57 mill 5.60 mill 5.70 mill
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories -4.4 mill -2.4 mill -1.8 mill
Thursday UK Revised GDP 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims 234,000 236,000 236,000
Friday JAPAN National Core CPI 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
Friday US Core Durable Orders -0.40% 0.40% 0.00%
Friday US Prelim GDP 1.20% 0.90% 0.70%
Friday US UOM Consumer Sentimnet 97.6 97.6 97.7

 

Key Economic Releases of Next Week

Day Country Release Expected Previous
Monday EUROZONE ECB President Draghi Speaks
Tuesday AUSTRALIA Building Approvals 3.20% -13.40%
Tuesday GERMANY Prelim CPI Index -0.10% 0.00%
Tuesday CANADA Current Account -11.4 bill -10.7 bill
Tuesday US Personal Spending 0.40% 0.00%
Tuesday US CB Consumer Confidence 120.1 120.3
Wednesday CHINA Manufacturing PMI 51 51.2
Wednesday CHINA Services PMI 54
Wednesday GERMANY Retail Sales 0.40% 0.10%
Wednesday EUROZONE Flash CPI 1.50% 1.90%
Wednesday CANADA GDP 0.30% 0.00%
Wednesday UK Chicago PMI 57 58.3
Wednesday US Pending Home Sales 0.70% -0.80%
Thursday AUSTRALIA Capital Expenditure 0.60% -2.10%
Thursday AUSTRALIA Retail Sales 0.30% -0.10%
Thursday UK Manufacturing PMI 56.5 57.5
Thursday US ADP Employment Growth 181,000 177,000
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims 239,000 234,000
Thursday US ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.7 54.8
Thursday US Crude Oil Inventories -4.4 mill
Friday UK Construction PMI 52.7 53.1
Friday CANADA Trade Balance 0.0 bill -0.1 bill
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls 186,000 211,000
Friday US Hourly Earnings 0.2% 0.3%
Friday US Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.4%
Friday US Trade Balance -45.5 bill -43.7 bill
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Feedback or Requests?

Mate Cser

Mate Cser

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.

Comments
  • user

    AUTHOR Angie

    Posted on 1:24 am May 30, 2017.

    Hello . Does anyone have any thoughts as to the future of the Australian dollar vs Euro and USA dollar.
    Thoughts of the future Australian economy and share market

    • user

      AUTHOR Mate Cser

      Posted on 7:04 pm May 30, 2017.

      Hello Angie, I expect the Aussie to continue its decline against the Dollar (I have been expecting 0.6 for a while, which still seems to be a good target), while the Euro is a bit more tricky, considering the sorry state of some of the Eurozone economies. The Chinese slowdown, the pressure on commodity prices, the oversized financial sector, and the crazy housing market are all huge risks at this point, so I’d definitely be defensive with Australian assets right now. I will post an article on Australia and Canada in the coming two weeks, if you have any questions until then, let me know!

  • View Comments (2) ...
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