Connect with us

Analysis

3 Commodity ETFs Pose Caution In July

Published

on

Three commodity exchange traded funds (ETFs) have a tendency to rise or fall in July, indicating both opportunity and risk for investors, according to Investopedia. Two of the ETFs have a strong bearish bias while one has a long-term historical tendency to rally, although in recent years it has been slammed lower.

Investors are advised to use seasonality in conjunction with other fundamental or technical criteria, as it only shows what happened in the past and not necessarily what will happen this July. It is important to consider factors like targets, stop-losses and entries before trading the ETFs based on seasonality.

United Natural Gas Fund (UNG)

Source: Investopedia

The United States Natural Gas (UNG) fund, an ETF designed to track in percentage terms the movements of natural gas prices, has struggled in July over the last four years. UNG’s price has lost 5.8% on average and never closed the month higher than it opened. Even in 2016, when the price rallied, natural gas prices struggled through July and August.

UNG’s investment objective is for the daily changes in percentage terms of its shares’ net asset value to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the natural gas price delivered at the Henry Hub, La., as measured by the daily changes in the benchmark futures contract minus expenses.

The fund offers commodity exposure without using a commodity futures account. It offers equity-like features such as intra-day pricing and market, limit and stop orders.

Over the last 19 years, natural gas futures have dropped in July 68% of the time and lost 2.9% on average. The fund has been struggling in 2017, but recently, it bounced off support near $6.50. The seasonality factor, however, points to a re-test of the support area.

In April, natural gas futures rose 2% when a report indicated natural gas supply growth already peaked. Inventories rose by 2 billion cubic feet following an April draw of 43 billion cubic feet, which fell far short of expectations that supply would increase by 7 billion cubic feet.

Natural gas futures increased 0.7% following the news.

Natural gas reached its 52-week low in April 2016 of $2.64, followed by increased volatility due to unseasonably warm weather that crimped its bull run in early 2017. From mid-February to April 2017, natural gas reversed course and stayed 8.8% up from the year’s start.

UNG did not follow suit, however, rising only 0.9% and was down 16% on the year. UNG has witnessed a decline in its net asset value due to transaction and borrowing costs despite its underlying asset gaining in value.

iPath Bloomberg Sugar ETN (SGG)

Source: Investopedia

The iPath Bloomberg Sugar ETN (SGG), designed to provide exposure to the Bloomberg Sugar Subindex Total Return, has lost value every July for the last three years, dropping an average of 9.7%. While this strikes of bearishness, it is actually a recent phenomenon. The outlook for July improves in reviewing the results over four additional years.

The price over the last nine years has increased in July 67% of the time, gaining 2.9% on average. There have been some big loss years of late, but there were bigger positive years previously.

Sugar futures contracts have increased 68% of the time over the last 19 years, rising 4.8% on average.

The Sugar ETN suffers a downtrend at the present time, having dropped steadily since March. $25 to $24 to is a plausible support area, since that is where SGG bottomed in 2015.

ETNs are riskier than ordinary unsecured debt securities and offer no principal protection. The ETNs are unsecured debt obligations of Barclays Bank PLC, the issuer, and are not, directly or indirectly, guaranteed by any third party, according to Barclays Bank PLC.

Any payment made on the ETNs, including at maturity or upon redemption, relies on Barclays Bank PLC’s ability to satisfy obligations as they come due.

The index reflects the returns potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on sugar. It currently consists of one futures contract on sugar that is included in the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return.

Owning ETNs is not the same as owning interests in the commodities futures contracts comprising the index or a security directly tied to the index performance.

Most of the world’s supply of sugar is not traded on the open market. It is also highly subsidized in its countries of origin, which can make it impossible to determine its true supply and demand. All governments, to some extent, intervene with the growth and production of sugar in their country.

Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)

Source: Investopedia

The Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN), which provides investors unleveraged, direct exposure to corn without the need for a futures account, has also had rough Julys as of late. It has fallen every July in the past four years, posting average declines of 8.9%.

CORN was created to minimize the effects of rolling contracts by not investing in front-month (spot) futures contracts, thereby limiting the number of contract rolls every year.

The futures contract offers a longer historical precedent as the ETF has existed for only eight years. Over the last 19 years, corn futures have increased only 32% of the time in July, shedding 3.4% on average.

The ETF has ranged since mid-2016. At the beginning of June, the price tumbled from the top of the range.

The ETF currently trades around $18.50, which could represent a support area according to the range.

If selling continues as history indicates, the next fall could take the price beneath $17.68, the August 2016 low.

Corn futures, which are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade, trade according to loose seasonal patterns. This is mainly on account of the seasonal availability of corn in the cash market. While these trends may not always work alone, they often work in conjunction with other fundamental and technical indicators.

Most farmers and professional grain traders know these trends. Farmers use them to initiate hedge positions and as a guide as to when cash corn should be sold. Traders use the knowledge to back up an existing indicator.

Most seasonal charts indicate the corn market is at its weakest prior to and during the harvest, which is generally between September and November, when North American farmers harvest corn and deliver it to local elevators. The lows occur because of the supply of cash corn that gets thrown into the market. High supplies, as with any market, equate to low prices.

Most traders use these indicators to confirm another signal, be it technical or fundamental. They should not trade using seasonal trends alone, since outside market forces can have a major impact.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

3.9 stars on average, based on 8 rated postsLester Coleman is a veteran business journalist based in the United States. He has covered the payments industry for several years and is available for writing assignments.




Feedback or Requests?

Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Analysis

Ethereum Making a Decision Where to Go

Published

on

Ether is losing its value slightly today on Sep 19, trading at around $207.98. Losing 0.25% on Wednesday is not that surprising after a very hard Monday (although Tuesday was neutral). The crypto was above $210 when the session started, but then failed to stay near the local highs, says Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex.

On H1, the bearish trendline is at $216, which is confirmed on D1. The resistance levels at $216 and $220 are strong, and they must be broken out in order to go up or at least pull back upwards.

In case Ether fails to find any drivers, it will likely consolidate at around $205. This is exactly where the key support lies, while the resistance is at $216, as mentioned above.

The MACD is negative on D1, moving along the signal line, still giving a moderate buy signal, while the Stochastic is not going anywhere and is not issuing any signal, while being in the positives.

Lately, Ether is very much volatile, with no certain direction. Last week the cryptocurrency spiked 32%, but early this week it reverted and started falling. Ether is vulnerable to the general negative sentiment in the crypto market, although the inside news influence it, too.

People are waiting for the Constantinople update, as well as for the introduction of Ether futures on CBOE which should take place before the end of the year. Meanwhile, low activity in ICOs does no good to Ether’s price either.

Recently, news has come that the Ethereum network reduced its reward for mined blocks, from 3 to 2 ETH. This nearly equals the profits of Ether and Bitcoin miners, so some ETH miners are sure to switch to Bitcoin after this happened, especially those that are unable to cover their costs and expenses (and there are quite a few).

The only positive piece of news now is the pending payment option in MyCrypto wallet designed by Ethereum. This option enables scheduling the payment date and time, which simplifies matters when it comes to recurring payments, such as subscriptions.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.4 stars on average, based on 7 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Remains Weak Despite Ripple’s Surge

Published

on

Ripple made headlines today in the cryptocurrency segment, as the third largest coin jumped by more than 15% after trading in a narrow range for several days. Most of the major coins joined the rally, but the gains were muted and the technical setup remained unchanged in most cases, with the long-term outlook still being bearish, while the short-term picture remaining mixed.

Ethereum, which has been in the center of the trends in the segment for weeks rallied back above $200, but stayed below the recent swing high, leaving several questions unanswered concerning the short-term trend. Bitcoin also got stuck near the $6275 level yet again, and the total value of the market is still below the $200 billion mark, with still no clear signs of major capital inflows in the segment.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum quickly recovered above $200 after dipping below the weekend lows yesterday in late trading, retaining the short-term buy signal in our trend model. That said the coin still needs to show stronger bullish momentum to avoid a resumption of the clearly declining long-term trend. As sustained dip below $200 would still warn of a move to last week’s lows, while a move above $235 would open up the way towards $260 and the confluence resistance near $275.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin has been showing weakness in the last couple of days, and although the coin is still on a short-term buy signal, similarly to Ethereum, a quick recovery above $6500 would be needed to avoid a bearish turn.

Traders should hold on to their positions here, but given the still bearish segment-wide trends, we still don’t advise full positions even in the stronger coins. Below $6275, weaker support is found at $6000, close to the key long-term zone near $5850, while resistance is ahead at $6500, $6750, and $7000.

Ripple Needs Follow Through For a Buy Signal

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While today’s spike in Ripple is encouraging, the coin needs to show further signs of strength, as the recent sudden spikes in the majors were quickly sold as the bearish trend remained dominant in the segment.

With that in mind, despite the broken resistance levels, XRP remains on a neutral short-term signal in our trend model, while still being bearish from a long-term perspective. The coin is currently trading right at the $0.32 level, with support found at $0.3130, $0.30 and near $0.30, while strong resistance is ahead at $0.35.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is among the stronger coins from a short-term technical standpoint, trading in a bullish consolidation pattern just below the key $200 level. That said, the coin failed to show strength today amid Ripple’s rally, and that still points to a dominant bearish trend in the segment. With that in mind, traders should wait for further positive signs before entering new positions, especially since a bullish leadership still hasn’t developed.

IOT/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is still weaker than average, together with NEO, EOS, and ETC, and the coin is still just above the August lows, clearly being in a broad downtrend, despite holding up above the lower boundary of its short-term range. A test of the lows is likely in the coming weeks, and the coin remains on sell signals on both time-frames, with support found between $0.455 and $0.475, and near $0.405, and with key resistance ahead near $0.57 and $0.64.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
4 votes, average: 4.75 out of 54 votes, average: 4.75 out of 54 votes, average: 4.75 out of 54 votes, average: 4.75 out of 54 votes, average: 4.75 out of 5 (4 votes, average: 4.75 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 348 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

NIO Means Tesla Monopoly Ends

Published

on

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

On Sep 12, NIO made its IPO on the NYSE, which is a very important event for all automotive investors. Founded in 2014 by William Lee, NIO is one of the first companies to compete with Tesla in the premium electric car segment. NIO is based in Shanghai, China, and it already got investment support from such renowned companies as Baidu, Lenovo, Temasek, Tencent, Sequoia, and others.

There are currently over 4,000 employees at NIO.

In June 2018, the company started selling NIO ES8; currently, 481 electric cars have been sold and 17,000 more have been pre-ordered. This is Tesla Model X’s direct competition, while its price is twice as low thanks to some good support from the Chinese government, which is interested in promoting electric cars.

NIO ES8 starts from $67,000 (basic configuration). It has two engines of 635 horsepowers and can ride 355 km before charging. A good difference from Tesla is an option to use replaceable batteries; the monthly subscription is $193, and it takes just around 3 minutes to replace a battery. Tesla planned to offer this option, too, but did not implement it.

The underwriters of NIO at NYSE were BofA Merrill Lynch, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS. The initial price per share was $6.26. During the first day, 160M of shares were sold, which allowed NIO to get around $1B and get a place in top US IPO’s rating in 2018.

During the first day, the share price increased to $7, while the next day it jumped above $13, allowing investors to make over 100% profit. This shows investors are very much interested in the company, perhaps because of the good pre-IPO promotion. Before buying NIO shares now, though, one should wait first for the volatility to calm down.

Comparing Tesla and NIO is not the best job now, as Tesla already has over 14-year experience; however, this comparison may well become valid in a year or two, when more data arrive. While NIO is just starting out, its management may make accidental mistakes.

The lockup period (the period during which investors are not allowed to sell their shares) is 180d, which may additionally support the price, while after that the Q2 results will come out. Among NIO’s advantages, one may name government support as one of the biggest. While the trade war between the US and China is here to stay, the demand is high, and company may cater to Chinese customers first. When it starts conquering the US market, though, the conflict may have already come to an end. The company also admits that the customs duties may indirectly influence the car prices.

The issues NIO might face are already known, and the most obvious one is that of meeting the demand. Over the first 6 months of 2018, NIO had a loss of $502M, while the profit earned afterwards is currently just $7M.

Another risk is in the news that Tesla has come to an agreement with Shanghai authorities to build a car factory in the city, which means high competition for NIO. Still, NIO is likely to win thanks to the price, as the parts for Tesla are produced in the US only, and they are subject to customs duties.

NIO management also announced they had had no mass electric car production experience before, and this may have negative influence on the company growth – an issue already overcome by Tesla. Finally, for ES8, there are around 1,700 used coming from 160 vendors; with so many suppliers, delays in shipments may become quite a common thing.

Many things depend on how NIO is going to rise its production volume and how true the declarations of the management are. Previously, we’ve seen how Elon Musk’s words were sometimes very different from what happened in fact.

One of the key topics here is financing, as the development will require a lot of money. Even Tesla has failed to book net profits so far, its losses and debts still growing.

NIO shares are likely to rise in the short term, as investors will be playing on the fact the company is quite promising at first sight. Other conclusions may be only made after there are at least some financial data at hand.

Technically, there are two support levels for NIO: one at $7 and another at $9.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.4 stars on average, based on 7 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending