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$20,000,000,000,000

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Some say the chart of Bitcoin over the past year is simply outrageous. Well, maybe it is, but not as outrageous as the US national debt!!

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Thanks to spending on the most recent natural and political disasters the US government is now in the hole for $20 Trillion. Despite this landmark milestone and despite everything else the US stock market’s S&P 500 Index closed at an all time high record level.

Tell me again how Bitcoin is a bubble.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

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Please note: All data, figures, and graphs are valid as of September 12th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

The headlines across financial media say that “fears subside.”

It is clear that stock markets are going up despite the 27 major natural disasters that have occurred in the first days of what some are calling Septembergeddon.

Furthermore, some analysts even pointed to the lack of a nuclear strike from North Korea as a reason for stocks to rise. True, Kim Jong Un didn’t launch any missiles over the weekend and instead decided to party with his people but that’s not any indication of what side of the bed he’ll wake up on tomorrow.

No, my friends. The markets are rising for a different reason…. Central bank manipulation.

Of the $20 Trillion that we mentioned above that the US owes, $4.5 Trillion of it is owed to their own central bank. Most of that money has ended up in the stock market.

In this chart from Bloomberg, we can see the stock markets rising since the financial crisis started in 2008 and the Fed’s balance sheet ballooning in comparison.

What about other safe havens?

So yeah, we can say that the stock markets are no longer a barometer of market sentiment. It used to be that when stocks were going up we could think of sentiment as being risk on. So, some of that sentiment may still be in the market, which explains why financial journalists are so confused.

They feel that since the stock markets are going up, the fears must be subsiding. They then look at the price of gold, the number one safe haven, and see that it’s down $23 an ounce in the last three sessions and see confirmation.

At this point though, I’m not sure gold can be used as a great example. It’s been bought so much over the past few weeks that signals are all showing that it’s been a bit overdone. So a bit of falling back doesn’t necessarily mean that risk is back on.

So we really need to look at the currency markets for help here. This is the performance so far this week.

Indeed, the biggest safe havens JPY, CHF, and the Euro are all falling so far this week.

OK, I guess nobody is scared of Kim Jong Un, or Harvey, or Irma, or Chipas, Jose, Trump, or multiple wildfires, or the out of control national debt, or the Federal reserve who wants to offload their $4.5 Trillion starting next month. I guess everything is just hunky dory.

Crypto Update

All major cryptos are in green for the second day in a row. It seems we do have some mild sustained growth. We’re far from the huge surging action that we saw in August but the pullback does seem to be over.

Let’s see how the day progresses.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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  1. gran

    September 12, 2017 at 1:25 pm

    the dollar itself is the largest ponzi scheme that has been orchestrated in all times, it is laughable when it speaks badly of the cryptos, when it has a coin that is backed by simple words

    • Inverstor Clouseau

      September 13, 2017 at 1:34 am

      I wouldn’t call it a ponzi but it’s remarkable that the majority of the public don’t know what the dollar is backed by. I get a lot of rather ignorant people around me here in Toronto advocating for fiat saying that “bitcoin isn’t backed by anything, its all fake”. The irony is brilliant.

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Altcoins

Crypto Correction Deepens With Bitcoin Falling Below $10,000

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Cryptocurrencies hastened their decline on Thursday, with the total market cap falling to its lowest level in over a week as bitcoin and the major altcoins backtracked.

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Fresh Selloff Hits Crypto Market

Ninety-two of the top 100 cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap were trading lower Thursday afternoon. The combined market capitalization for all coins fell 6% to $430 billion, the lowest since Feb. 13.

Bitcoin broke below $10,000 for the first time in nearly a week, and was last seen trading at $9.891. Even with the decline, bitcoin is maintaining its bullish outlook insofar as prices hold above the technically important $9,000-$9,200 region. Although downside is expected to persist in the short term, a bounce back toward $11,000 is expected. This is confirmed by the oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI), which also points to a rebound.

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As the following chart illustrates, the value of bitcoin peaked near $11,800 earlier this week before the recent bout of profit-taking took hold.

Ethereum, the world’s no. 2 cryptocurrency by market cap, fell below $800 for the first time in almost two weeks. At the time of writing, one ether was worth around $793, which represents a decline of 4% from the previous close.

Like bitcoin, ether is also grappling with oversold levels. However, the recent low is much shallower than the one Ethereum experienced in early February when prices fell toward $550.

Meanwhile, Litecoin tumbled to a session low of $188.73, more than offsetting a 50% gain earlier in the week. At the time of writing, the coin was down 6.5% at $192.59.

Elsewhere in the market, Ripple plunged nearly 9% to $0.93, while bitcoin cash fell fell nearly 8% to $1,210.

No Immediate Catalyst for the Decline

Like previous corrective phases, there was no immediate catalyst for the market’s sharp reversal, a sign that technical traders were largely responsible for the downshift. Since peaking above $518 billion on Saturday, the crypto market has declined 17%, all but reversing the previous week’s sharp rally.

On the regulatory front, the French government just announced it will be cracking down on unregulated cryptocurrency trading. In a statement issued by Autorite des Marches Financiers (AMF), the nation’s financial market watchdog, regulators said they had noticed a growing trend in unregulated futures and derivatives trading involving cryptocurrency.

“The AMF concludes that a cash-settled cryptocurrency contract may qualify as a derivative, irrespective of the legal qualification of a cryptocurrency,” the AMF said in the statement, as reported by CCN. “As a result, online platforms which offer cryptocurrency derivatives fall within the scope of MiFID 2 and must therefore comply with the authorisation, conduct of business rules, and the EMIR trade reporting obligation to a trade repository.”

MiFID stands for Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, a harmonized regulatory framework for the European Union’s financial markets. MiFID 2 was launched earlier this year to provide more transparency on traders and go after non-compliance more aggressively.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 161 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Tests $10,000 amid Correction

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The altcoin-triggered correction continued in the segment overnight amid the renewed sell-off in global stocks, with a slight bounce in Asian trading and a subsequent dip after the European open. The major coins are all down by more than 5% since yesterday, but for now, the momentum of the move is not worrying, and most importantly the leadership of the rally is holding up relatively well.

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Bitcoin bounced off the key $10,000 level, the $200 support zone held in Litecoin, Monero is still in its consolidation pattern above $280, and only Dash showed deterioration since yesterday, but the long-term picture remains encouraging even in Dash’s case.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The above-mentioned levels in the technically strongest coins are not even the last line of defense for bulls, as the preceding strong rally left several key levels behind which could serve as the basis of the next leg higher.

Also, we expect the currently negatively diverging coins, led by Ethereum and Ripple, to start showing strength as the short-term momentum reaches oversold territory, and good entry points might be close both for traders and long-term investors.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

BTC touched the $10,000 support level, but for now, the technically more important $9000-$9200 zone is not in danger, and the short-term momentum indicators are already neutral thanks to the correction.

That said, more downside is likely in the coming days, but investors and traders should be looking for reversals to enter new positions, as we expect the uptrend to continue, with targets ahead at $11,300, $13,000 and $14,250.

Ethereum Provides a Glimmer of Hope

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although bears are still in control regarding the short-term picture in the second largest coin, this morning ETH didn’t hit a significant new swing low, and that could be the first sign of relative strength, with the $845 support not far above the current price level, and the MACD indicator is already near oversold territory.

Despite the slightly positive sign, short-term traders should remain defensive concerning the weaker coins, while long-term investors should still accumulate the currencies on the dips.

Stay tuned for our detailed technical analysis later on today.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 109 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Cryptocurrency Market Enters Corrective Phase as Majors Retreat from Recent Highs

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The cryptocurrency market declined across the board Thursday, as bitcoin, Ethereum and the rest of the major altcoins retreated from recent highs.

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Crypto Market Backpedals

After peaking above $518 billion on Saturday, the market capitalization for all cryptocurrencies has fallen to $469 billion, based on latest data from CoinMarketCap. That represents a decline of more than 9%. Trade volume across all digital assets approached $24 billion over the past 24 hours.

The latest drop in total coin value seems to have coincided with broader uptake in bitcoin, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency both in terms of market cap and trade volume. Bitcoin now accounts for more than 39% of the total market,  a near seven-point increase over last month’s lows.

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Bitcoin made a strong move above $11,000 on Wednesday, eventually hitting a three-week high of $11,329. As we wrote Wednesday, bitcoin in particular seems to be benefiting from a myriad of market forces ranging from favorable regulations to improved investor sentiment.

At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency was worth $10,901.

Other major cryptos were also down at the start of Thursday trading, with Ethereum slipping 3.6% to $864.83. Ripple’s XRP token declined 2.7% to $1.04, while bitcoin cash fell 4.3% to $1,336.50.

Even Litecoin, a currency that has witnessed a 50% surge this week, fell more than 3% to $219.43.

Paul Singer Calls Cryptocurrencies a Huge Scam

Elliot Management, a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund headed by Paul Singer, recently came out with a report calling cryptocurrencies “one of the most brilliant scams in history.” It added that “FOMO (fear of missing out) has solidly trumped WTHIT (what the hell is this??).”

In the cryptocurrency world, talk is incredibly cheap, and arguments from authority don’t hold much credence. Although Elliott dedicated three pages to cryptocurrencies, there doesn’t seem to be a strong argument against cryptocurrencies. (Calling cryptos “nothing except the marketing power of inventors, financiers and others who love the idea of buying a black box…” is not an argument.)

That being said, the fund’s comments may have resonated with speculators who are already on the fence about re-entering the market. After all, the daily news headlines play a huge role in shaping investor sentiment, regardless of whether those headlines are true. This has been demonstrated time and time again by regulatory developments in nations such as South Korea and India.

As Singer’s comments clearly show, there’s still plenty of FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) driving the cryptocurrency market. This is unlikely to change soon even as bitcoin and the technology that underlies it enjoys greater mainstream adoption.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 161 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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