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$20,000,000,000,000

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Some say the chart of Bitcoin over the past year is simply outrageous. Well, maybe it is, but not as outrageous as the US national debt!!

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Thanks to spending on the most recent natural and political disasters the US government is now in the hole for $20 Trillion. Despite this landmark milestone and despite everything else the US stock market’s S&P 500 Index closed at an all time high record level.

Tell me again how Bitcoin is a bubble.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

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Please note: All data, figures, and graphs are valid as of September 12th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

The headlines across financial media say that “fears subside.”

It is clear that stock markets are going up despite the 27 major natural disasters that have occurred in the first days of what some are calling Septembergeddon.

Furthermore, some analysts even pointed to the lack of a nuclear strike from North Korea as a reason for stocks to rise. True, Kim Jong Un didn’t launch any missiles over the weekend and instead decided to party with his people but that’s not any indication of what side of the bed he’ll wake up on tomorrow.

No, my friends. The markets are rising for a different reason…. Central bank manipulation.

Of the $20 Trillion that we mentioned above that the US owes, $4.5 Trillion of it is owed to their own central bank. Most of that money has ended up in the stock market.

In this chart from Bloomberg, we can see the stock markets rising since the financial crisis started in 2008 and the Fed’s balance sheet ballooning in comparison.

What about other safe havens?

So yeah, we can say that the stock markets are no longer a barometer of market sentiment. It used to be that when stocks were going up we could think of sentiment as being risk on. So, some of that sentiment may still be in the market, which explains why financial journalists are so confused.

They feel that since the stock markets are going up, the fears must be subsiding. They then look at the price of gold, the number one safe haven, and see that it’s down $23 an ounce in the last three sessions and see confirmation.

At this point though, I’m not sure gold can be used as a great example. It’s been bought so much over the past few weeks that signals are all showing that it’s been a bit overdone. So a bit of falling back doesn’t necessarily mean that risk is back on.

So we really need to look at the currency markets for help here. This is the performance so far this week.

Indeed, the biggest safe havens JPY, CHF, and the Euro are all falling so far this week.

OK, I guess nobody is scared of Kim Jong Un, or Harvey, or Irma, or Chipas, Jose, Trump, or multiple wildfires, or the out of control national debt, or the Federal reserve who wants to offload their $4.5 Trillion starting next month. I guess everything is just hunky dory.

Crypto Update

All major cryptos are in green for the second day in a row. It seems we do have some mild sustained growth. We’re far from the huge surging action that we saw in August but the pullback does seem to be over.

Let’s see how the day progresses.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. gran

    September 12, 2017 at 1:25 pm

    the dollar itself is the largest ponzi scheme that has been orchestrated in all times, it is laughable when it speaks badly of the cryptos, when it has a coin that is backed by simple words

    • Inverstor Clouseau

      September 13, 2017 at 1:34 am

      I wouldn’t call it a ponzi but it’s remarkable that the majority of the public don’t know what the dollar is backed by. I get a lot of rather ignorant people around me here in Toronto advocating for fiat saying that “bitcoin isn’t backed by anything, its all fake”. The irony is brilliant.

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Altcoins

Trade Recommendation: Enjin (ENJ)

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Enjin Coin has recently finished its ICO and is currently available on a few exchanges. The primary metric to look at is the market cap of a company, especially after the initial exchange selloff. Most ICO investors are looking for a coin with a small market cap so that they can get 2x – 5x return. Enjin Coin has a very low market cap at the moment in relation to the maturity of the company. This will be a great candidate to swing trade. There are four reasons this coin is a swing trade candidate besides the fact that it has dipped to previous lows and is a great buy at the moment.

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1. Enjin currently has a contest running on Binance.com that will pay large amounts of ENJ tokens  to the top holders during the competition. This ends on November 25th. Basically, you just have to buy ENJ on Binance and hold it until the end of the contest. The top holders will be rewarded. Here is the contest info: Enjin Binance Contest

2. Enjin is releasing its Mobile Smart Wallet as well as the Minecraft plugin soon. This will allow game developers to use ENJ in the gaming community.

3. The chart shows the MACD crossing upward over the EMA 9-day signal indicating another bullish run.

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4. Enjin could be compared to GameCredits, which is currently trading on Bittrex. GameCredits has a market cap of $123,000,000; DigiByte has a market cap of $85,000,000. If Enjin only reached the market cap of DigiByte that would be a 5x ROI and if it reaches GameCredits’ market cap then investors would see an ROI of 8x. For the short term, the entry point is 0.00000265 BTC with a stop loss order placed at 0.00000242 with a profit target at 0.00000318 BTC.

Market: ENJ/BTC
Buy: 0.00000270 BTC
Stop: 
0.00000248 BTC
Profit Targets: 
0.00000324 BTC – 0.00000328 BTC

If your profit target hits 0.00000324 BTC, you will have made 20% return.

Disclaimer: The analysis is invested in ENJ.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Flirts with $8000 as Altcoin Bull Persists

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Bitcoin’s swift recovery was the main topic of the week, as the most valuable coin not just regained its steep losses, but hit a marginal new high towards the end of the period. The entire segment is experiencing capital inflows as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever after finally leaving the vicinity of the $200 billion mark.

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BTC breached the $8000 level before turning slightly lower on Friday, but despite the severely overbought daily chart, it is still trading near its all-time highs. As the long-term picture still suggests a deeper correction, investors should wait with opening new positions and traders should also control position sizes here. Key support levels are found at $7700, $7000, and $6700, while the recent key break-out level at $5000 still hasn’t been re-tested.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Dash is still the most bullish altcoin from a technical standpoint, despite this week’s short-term correction, as the coin is trading above its prior all-time high, and this weekend, it looks ready to test the break-out high near $500. Support levels are still found at $400, $360, and $330, and as the long-term picture is approaching overbought territory, investors should only hold on to their positions here.

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The other major altcoins are also mostly in bullish setups, with some of them already in the latter stages of this cycle, like Monero and IOTA, but elsewhere in the segment, there are still opportunities for both traders and investors. Let’s see the detailed long-term view.

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Cryptocurrencies

Trade Recommendation: Zcash

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The market is in the uptrend and we have to search for buy opportunities. MACD and DMI support upward movement and we can trade based on a breakout signal above 300.00 resistance level. If the price can break this resistance, we’ll get an additional signal confirming the upward movement. Entry level is 302.00 with stop orders at 283.80 level. Profit targets are 320.00 and 350.00 levels. This is a short term trade, but the part of trade volume can be left for long run. If you don’t use leverage, trading volume for this trade is up to 10% from your deposit.

Market: ZECUSD
Buy: 302.00
Stop: 283.80
Profit Targets: 320.00 and 350.00

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The trading signal is based on the Poloniex chart.

Disclaimer: The analyst is invested in Zcash.

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Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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